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| New Ukip leader poses threat to Labour and the Tories | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Paul Nuttall has long been the Ukip figure feared by Labour MPs with seats in the party’s traditional northern heartlands. | Paul Nuttall has long been the Ukip figure feared by Labour MPs with seats in the party’s traditional northern heartlands. |
| Now he is the leader of the party controlled for so long by Nigel Farage, the fear is that this former lecturer from Bootle in Merseyside will have greater appeal to Labour voters than a tweeded, privately educated City boy. | Now he is the leader of the party controlled for so long by Nigel Farage, the fear is that this former lecturer from Bootle in Merseyside will have greater appeal to Labour voters than a tweeded, privately educated City boy. |
| It is no small ambition but Nuttall’s stated aim is to “replace the Labour party and make Ukip the patriotic voice of working people”. | It is no small ambition but Nuttall’s stated aim is to “replace the Labour party and make Ukip the patriotic voice of working people”. |
| His line of attack is already clear: that Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader is an out-of-touch metropolitan figure obsessed with Palestine, fair trade and climate change. In contrast, Nuttall will talk relentlessly about standing up for the English and putting the “great” back into Britain, while claiming to have the solutions to “the issues that affect real people in real working-class communities”. | His line of attack is already clear: that Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader is an out-of-touch metropolitan figure obsessed with Palestine, fair trade and climate change. In contrast, Nuttall will talk relentlessly about standing up for the English and putting the “great” back into Britain, while claiming to have the solutions to “the issues that affect real people in real working-class communities”. |
| In other words, the new Ukip leader will attempt to press all the Trumpian nationalist buttons that tap into fear of immigration and resentment about feeling left behind financially while an elite prospers. | In other words, the new Ukip leader will attempt to press all the Trumpian nationalist buttons that tap into fear of immigration and resentment about feeling left behind financially while an elite prospers. |
| While Farage was viewed suspiciously by many Labour supporters in the north as a former Tory from the home counties, Nuttall does not have quite the same baggage. | While Farage was viewed suspiciously by many Labour supporters in the north as a former Tory from the home counties, Nuttall does not have quite the same baggage. |
| That said, the new Ukip leader does have some weak points for Labour to exploit. In particular, his past call for the NHS to be dismantled and his admiration for Margaret Thatcher are likely to feature prominently on opposition election literature. Nuttall has also failed to break through electorally whenever he has run for parliament, gaining just 11% of the vote in Bootle in 2015. | That said, the new Ukip leader does have some weak points for Labour to exploit. In particular, his past call for the NHS to be dismantled and his admiration for Margaret Thatcher are likely to feature prominently on opposition election literature. Nuttall has also failed to break through electorally whenever he has run for parliament, gaining just 11% of the vote in Bootle in 2015. |
| Farage has long boasted that Ukip is on the brink of breaking through in the north of England, but has little to show for his efforts. The party may have come second to Labour in 34 seats across the north-east, north-west and Yorkshire (as well as in 33 in the south-east against the Conservatives) but this translated into no new MPs at the last election. | Farage has long boasted that Ukip is on the brink of breaking through in the north of England, but has little to show for his efforts. The party may have come second to Labour in 34 seats across the north-east, north-west and Yorkshire (as well as in 33 in the south-east against the Conservatives) but this translated into no new MPs at the last election. |
| Nuttall will have to work hard on Ukip’s “ground war” if he wants a different outcome next time. But Ukip insiders believe the EU referendum could have helped the party by breaking people’s long-established voting patterns, with former lifelong Labour supporters willing to try a party that accords more with the expression of their pro-Brexit view. | Nuttall will have to work hard on Ukip’s “ground war” if he wants a different outcome next time. But Ukip insiders believe the EU referendum could have helped the party by breaking people’s long-established voting patterns, with former lifelong Labour supporters willing to try a party that accords more with the expression of their pro-Brexit view. |
| It may also have partially detoxified the Ukip brand by making its central aims appear more mainstream, as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and finally the new prime minister, Theresa May, jumped on board with leaving the EU and stricter controls on immigration. | It may also have partially detoxified the Ukip brand by making its central aims appear more mainstream, as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and finally the new prime minister, Theresa May, jumped on board with leaving the EU and stricter controls on immigration. |
| The risk posed by Ukip to May should not be underestimated. While Nuttall is focusing mainly on scooping up former Labour votes in the north, he may with little effort be able to pick up support from Brexit voters who end up feeling betrayed by May’s efforts to take the UK out of the EU. | The risk posed by Ukip to May should not be underestimated. While Nuttall is focusing mainly on scooping up former Labour votes in the north, he may with little effort be able to pick up support from Brexit voters who end up feeling betrayed by May’s efforts to take the UK out of the EU. |
| If the prime minister delivers a deal that disappoints the majority of leave voters, especially on immigration controls, Ukip will be the natural vehicle for discontented Brexiters. The challenge for Nuttall will be to hold Ukip together without the unifying force of Farage, after a summer of infighting and a wave of post-Brexit defections to the Conservatives. | If the prime minister delivers a deal that disappoints the majority of leave voters, especially on immigration controls, Ukip will be the natural vehicle for discontented Brexiters. The challenge for Nuttall will be to hold Ukip together without the unifying force of Farage, after a summer of infighting and a wave of post-Brexit defections to the Conservatives. |
| That will be no easy task but there is a possible path to success for him: appealing to non-metropolitan Labour voters in the north-east, north-west, Midlands and Wales, along with any Tory voters disappointed by compromises over Brexit. | That will be no easy task but there is a possible path to success for him: appealing to non-metropolitan Labour voters in the north-east, north-west, Midlands and Wales, along with any Tory voters disappointed by compromises over Brexit. |
| And by 2020 it is certainly possible that Farage will have had enough of fishing and playing the pro-Trump firebrand on US talk shows. The other parties should not be complacent about the thought of a Nuttall-Farage partnership leading Ukip into the next election, at a time when Britain could still be struggling to extricate itself from the EU, suffering the economic consequences of uncertainty and failing to bring down immigration. | And by 2020 it is certainly possible that Farage will have had enough of fishing and playing the pro-Trump firebrand on US talk shows. The other parties should not be complacent about the thought of a Nuttall-Farage partnership leading Ukip into the next election, at a time when Britain could still be struggling to extricate itself from the EU, suffering the economic consequences of uncertainty and failing to bring down immigration. |