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| EU immigration hits historic high, but post-Brexit policy clues lie in the detail EU immigration hits historic high, but post-Brexit policy clues lie in the detail | |
| (1 day later) | |
| The latest official figures showing that immigration from the European Union rose to a historic high in the run-up to the Brexit vote will not make comfortable reading in Downing Street. | The latest official figures showing that immigration from the European Union rose to a historic high in the run-up to the Brexit vote will not make comfortable reading in Downing Street. |
| But Theresa May’s policy advisers will be less interested in the confirmation that Britain remains, as it has been for the past 20 years, a country of mass migration and more interested in any detail that might help them frame the future post-Brexit migration policy. | But Theresa May’s policy advisers will be less interested in the confirmation that Britain remains, as it has been for the past 20 years, a country of mass migration and more interested in any detail that might help them frame the future post-Brexit migration policy. |
| The numbers that will really capture their interest will be those showing the record rise in the number of EU citizens arriving in Britain looking for work without a definite job offer and the numbers on overseas students. | The numbers that will really capture their interest will be those showing the record rise in the number of EU citizens arriving in Britain looking for work without a definite job offer and the numbers on overseas students. |
| The figures show that 189,000 EU citizens arrived in Britain looking for work in the 12 months to June and 57% of them had a definite job offer. The remaining 43%, or 82,000, came looking for work – a rise of 21,000 over the previous year. | The figures show that 189,000 EU citizens arrived in Britain looking for work in the 12 months to June and 57% of them had a definite job offer. The remaining 43%, or 82,000, came looking for work – a rise of 21,000 over the previous year. |
| Most find a job within weeks and are barred from access to welfare benefits. They come because Britain has become the “jobs factory of Europe”, while Italy and Spain – the traditional destination, in particular for Romanians – have faltered. | Most find a job within weeks and are barred from access to welfare benefits. They come because Britain has become the “jobs factory of Europe”, while Italy and Spain – the traditional destination, in particular for Romanians – have faltered. |
| The prime minister made it clear when she was home secretary that she wanted to see severe restrictions on those who came to Britain without a specific job offer: “When it was first enshrined, free movement meant the freedom to move to a job, not the freedom to cross borders to look for work or claim benefits.” | The prime minister made it clear when she was home secretary that she wanted to see severe restrictions on those who came to Britain without a specific job offer: “When it was first enshrined, free movement meant the freedom to move to a job, not the freedom to cross borders to look for work or claim benefits.” |
| There have been clear signs in recent weeks that May still thinks this could be the way to go. EU labour migration has been the main driver behind the increase in the headline net migration figure. | There have been clear signs in recent weeks that May still thinks this could be the way to go. EU labour migration has been the main driver behind the increase in the headline net migration figure. |
| If she could secure a deal that meant restricting the numbers coming without an immediate job she would also achieve a big reduction in the record headline 335,000 net migration figure. The irony is that such a migration policy is entirely possible within the original Treaty of Rome and could be done without leaving the EU. | If she could secure a deal that meant restricting the numbers coming without an immediate job she would also achieve a big reduction in the record headline 335,000 net migration figure. The irony is that such a migration policy is entirely possible within the original Treaty of Rome and could be done without leaving the EU. |
| The other big number Downing Street policy advisers will focus on is the 30,000 reduction, to 163,000, in the number of overseas students coming to Britain, indicating that the squeeze on higher education is now really biting. Most come from outside Europe, particularly China, the USA and India. The biggest falls in the last year have been in further education (-8%), English language schools (-9%) and private schools (-3%), but universities also saw a 1% drop in visa applications. | The other big number Downing Street policy advisers will focus on is the 30,000 reduction, to 163,000, in the number of overseas students coming to Britain, indicating that the squeeze on higher education is now really biting. Most come from outside Europe, particularly China, the USA and India. The biggest falls in the last year have been in further education (-8%), English language schools (-9%) and private schools (-3%), but universities also saw a 1% drop in visa applications. |
| May’s next big move on immigration is to tighten the curb on overseas students even further by tying the quality of the visa offer to the quality of the institution and the course. | May’s next big move on immigration is to tighten the curb on overseas students even further by tying the quality of the visa offer to the quality of the institution and the course. |
| It is no secret that half the cabinet, including the chancellor, think overseas students should be taken out of the firing line and removed from the net migration target altogether. Despite May’s renowned stubbornness, it remains an open question. | It is no secret that half the cabinet, including the chancellor, think overseas students should be taken out of the firing line and removed from the net migration target altogether. Despite May’s renowned stubbornness, it remains an open question. |
| The battleground is over what proportion of students overstay their study visas to settle in Britain. May’s advisers have claimed up to 80% for certain types, while others claim it is as low as 1%. The current ONS migration data, based on the international passenger survey, is not fit to answer the question. Early results from the new system of exit checks circulating among ministers could settle the question. They should be published as soon as possible. | The battleground is over what proportion of students overstay their study visas to settle in Britain. May’s advisers have claimed up to 80% for certain types, while others claim it is as low as 1%. The current ONS migration data, based on the international passenger survey, is not fit to answer the question. Early results from the new system of exit checks circulating among ministers could settle the question. They should be published as soon as possible. |