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| 10 lessons from the Richmond Park byelection result | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1. Voters were making a protest about Brexit – but were not necessarily voting against Theresa May’s Brexit | 1. Voters were making a protest about Brexit – but were not necessarily voting against Theresa May’s Brexit |
| Zac Goldsmith triggered the byelection so he could stand as an independent and register his opposition to a Heathrow third runway, but the Lib Dems neutralised that by saying they would oppose the Heathrow third runway just as strongly. Instead they invited voters to use the byelection to vote against “hard” Brexit and in favour of a second referendum. But Lib Dems who campaigned in the seat admit many people supported them not because they were opposed to what May and David Davis are doing but because they wanted to vote against the entire 23 June referendum result. In other words, it may well have been more of a vote against Vote Leave than a vote against the Conservative government. | Zac Goldsmith triggered the byelection so he could stand as an independent and register his opposition to a Heathrow third runway, but the Lib Dems neutralised that by saying they would oppose the Heathrow third runway just as strongly. Instead they invited voters to use the byelection to vote against “hard” Brexit and in favour of a second referendum. But Lib Dems who campaigned in the seat admit many people supported them not because they were opposed to what May and David Davis are doing but because they wanted to vote against the entire 23 June referendum result. In other words, it may well have been more of a vote against Vote Leave than a vote against the Conservative government. |
| 2. The government’s working majority is now down to 13 | 2. The government’s working majority is now down to 13 |
| Assuming that Zac Goldsmith would have voted with the government on everything apart from Heathrow, that’s a reduction from 15. That does not help, but it is not in itself too disastrous for May. | Assuming that Zac Goldsmith would have voted with the government on everything apart from Heathrow, that’s a reduction from 15. That does not help, but it is not in itself too disastrous for May. |
| 3. Byelection losses can put pressure on governments to change policy, but there are two good reasons why there is little chance of that happening here | 3. Byelection losses can put pressure on governments to change policy, but there are two good reasons why there is little chance of that happening here |
| Leaders fear losing seats in byelections not so much because their majority is reduced but because, if all their MPs start getting scared that they too will lose their seats because of, say, the poll tax or abolishing the 10p rate of income tax or whatever, the parliamentary party becomes unmanageable. | Leaders fear losing seats in byelections not so much because their majority is reduced but because, if all their MPs start getting scared that they too will lose their seats because of, say, the poll tax or abolishing the 10p rate of income tax or whatever, the parliamentary party becomes unmanageable. |
| But May is unlikely to face a delegation of MPs coming to see her to tell her that she must change course over Brexit. Why? Firstly, this may well have been more of a vote against Brexit than against “hard” Brexit. And secondly, Richmond Park is one of the most pro-remain seats in the country. It is estimated that 72% of people there voted remain (compared with the national figure of 48%). | But May is unlikely to face a delegation of MPs coming to see her to tell her that she must change course over Brexit. Why? Firstly, this may well have been more of a vote against Brexit than against “hard” Brexit. And secondly, Richmond Park is one of the most pro-remain seats in the country. It is estimated that 72% of people there voted remain (compared with the national figure of 48%). |
| This figure is based on research by the academic Chris Hanretty (the referendum results were announced by local authority area, not by parliamentary constituency, which meant Hanretty had to devise a formula to convert one into the other). On the Today programme, John Humphrys said Richmond Park had the 17th highest remain vote. This Hanretty chart shows only eight English seats with higher remain votes. Few Tory MPs will worry about a remain backlash as strong as the one in Richmond Park. | This figure is based on research by the academic Chris Hanretty (the referendum results were announced by local authority area, not by parliamentary constituency, which meant Hanretty had to devise a formula to convert one into the other). On the Today programme, John Humphrys said Richmond Park had the 17th highest remain vote. This Hanretty chart shows only eight English seats with higher remain votes. Few Tory MPs will worry about a remain backlash as strong as the one in Richmond Park. |
| 4. The result will embolden Lib Dem MPs and peers, because they can now claim to have a mandate to oppose a ‘hard’ Brexit and to push for a second referendum | 4. The result will embolden Lib Dem MPs and peers, because they can now claim to have a mandate to oppose a ‘hard’ Brexit and to push for a second referendum |
| Sarah Olney’s election takes the number of Lib Dem MPs in the Commons from eight to nine, and the Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg was right to dismiss them as a relatively puny Commons force. But they have 104 peers in the Lords, where their impact can be decisive, and Richmond Park will make those peers feel more confident about amending the bill parliament may have to pass to trigger article 50. | Sarah Olney’s election takes the number of Lib Dem MPs in the Commons from eight to nine, and the Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg was right to dismiss them as a relatively puny Commons force. But they have 104 peers in the Lords, where their impact can be decisive, and Richmond Park will make those peers feel more confident about amending the bill parliament may have to pass to trigger article 50. |
| 5. The Lib Dems have also received a fillip nationally. | 5. The Lib Dems have also received a fillip nationally. |
| One byelection win by itself will not revive the party, which is still doing dreadfully in national polls. It was at just 7% in the Guardian/ICM poll this week. But there was a fear the party had become toxic during the coalition. Richmond Park shows it can attract new voters in significant numbers. | One byelection win by itself will not revive the party, which is still doing dreadfully in national polls. It was at just 7% in the Guardian/ICM poll this week. But there was a fear the party had become toxic during the coalition. Richmond Park shows it can attract new voters in significant numbers. |
| 6. The chances of an early election seem more remote | 6. The chances of an early election seem more remote |
| There may be relatively few Tory MPs worried about the Brexit implications of the byelection. But at the last election 27 Tories won seats from the Lib Dems, and a swing on the scale achieved by Olney (21.5 points) would see many of them lose to a Lib Dem challenger. A 2017 general election now looks riskier. | There may be relatively few Tory MPs worried about the Brexit implications of the byelection. But at the last election 27 Tories won seats from the Lib Dems, and a swing on the scale achieved by Olney (21.5 points) would see many of them lose to a Lib Dem challenger. A 2017 general election now looks riskier. |
| 7. Tactical voting is back | 7. Tactical voting is back |
| Many of the Lib Dem byelection victories in the 1990s were achieved because the party found it easy to get Labour supporters to vote tactically for it against the Tories, and that seems to have been happening in Richmond Park. Labour fielded a strong candidate, Christian Wolmar, but his vote collapsed. Tactical voting seems the obvious explanation, which is why the result does not really tell us anything about Labour and Jeremy Corbyn, despite Tim Farron’s attempts to claim otherwise. | Many of the Lib Dem byelection victories in the 1990s were achieved because the party found it easy to get Labour supporters to vote tactically for it against the Tories, and that seems to have been happening in Richmond Park. Labour fielded a strong candidate, Christian Wolmar, but his vote collapsed. Tactical voting seems the obvious explanation, which is why the result does not really tell us anything about Labour and Jeremy Corbyn, despite Tim Farron’s attempts to claim otherwise. |
| 8. The result may raise questions about the need for a ‘progressive alliance’ | 8. The result may raise questions about the need for a ‘progressive alliance’ |
| On the left there has been increasing interest in the idea that progressive parties should form electoral pacts in some seats so that the party best placed to defeat the Tories gets a free run. The Greens adopted this approach in Richmond Park, and they are suggesting it worked. Labour’s decision not to adopt this approach was controversial. But Labour supporters voted tactically anyway, suggesting that perhaps formal “stand aside” deals are unnecessary. | On the left there has been increasing interest in the idea that progressive parties should form electoral pacts in some seats so that the party best placed to defeat the Tories gets a free run. The Greens adopted this approach in Richmond Park, and they are suggesting it worked. Labour’s decision not to adopt this approach was controversial. But Labour supporters voted tactically anyway, suggesting that perhaps formal “stand aside” deals are unnecessary. |
| 9. Parties still matter enormously | 9. Parties still matter enormously |
| Some commentators claim traditional political parties are dying, and that the future belongs to insurgent outsiders like Donald Trump. But in the UK at least, it is virtually impossible to win an election without having a party machine behind you. Goldsmith’s supporters believe that one of the main reasons he lost was that, once he decided to stand as an independent, he lost access to the activist support and voter ID data that are essential tools for victory in a contest like this. In terms of volunteer numbers, he was overwhelmed by the Lib Dems. | Some commentators claim traditional political parties are dying, and that the future belongs to insurgent outsiders like Donald Trump. But in the UK at least, it is virtually impossible to win an election without having a party machine behind you. Goldsmith’s supporters believe that one of the main reasons he lost was that, once he decided to stand as an independent, he lost access to the activist support and voter ID data that are essential tools for victory in a contest like this. In terms of volunteer numbers, he was overwhelmed by the Lib Dems. |
| 10. Negative campaigning can backfire | 10. Negative campaigning can backfire |
| Anecdotal evidence suggests some people were motivated to vote against Goldsmith because they have not forgiven him for what was perceived as the Islamophobic tone of his campaign against Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral contest. It was probably a marginal factor, but one he may reflect on. Over the last 12 months Goldsmith has seen his career crash spectacularly, losing two elections, one of which (Richmond Park) he was confident of winning until very recently. Students of May’s summer purge of the Cameroons will note that this is another metropolitan Etonian who has crashed out of politics. | Anecdotal evidence suggests some people were motivated to vote against Goldsmith because they have not forgiven him for what was perceived as the Islamophobic tone of his campaign against Sadiq Khan in the London mayoral contest. It was probably a marginal factor, but one he may reflect on. Over the last 12 months Goldsmith has seen his career crash spectacularly, losing two elections, one of which (Richmond Park) he was confident of winning until very recently. Students of May’s summer purge of the Cameroons will note that this is another metropolitan Etonian who has crashed out of politics. |