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Richmond Park marks the start of a new, cross-party rejection of Brexit Richmond Park marks the start of a new, cross-party rejection of Brexit
(about 2 hours later)
The Tories say the Richmond Park byelection doesn’t change anything on Europe. But the passion of voters in the south London constituency and the first signs of an emerging anti-Brexit cross-party alliance point to how Theresa May could be defeated nationally. In times to come, Sarah Olney’s victory may be seen as the moment the fightback began.The Tories say the Richmond Park byelection doesn’t change anything on Europe. But the passion of voters in the south London constituency and the first signs of an emerging anti-Brexit cross-party alliance point to how Theresa May could be defeated nationally. In times to come, Sarah Olney’s victory may be seen as the moment the fightback began.
There is, admittedly, a vast mountain to climb. Richmond Park was estimated to be the 28th most pro-remain constituency in June’s referendum, voting around 72% to stay in the European Union, according to research by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Only 231 of Britain’s 632 constituencies voted remain, while 401 backed leave (Northern Ireland wasn’t included in the analysis).There is, admittedly, a vast mountain to climb. Richmond Park was estimated to be the 28th most pro-remain constituency in June’s referendum, voting around 72% to stay in the European Union, according to research by Chris Hanretty from the University of East Anglia. Only 231 of Britain’s 632 constituencies voted remain, while 401 backed leave (Northern Ireland wasn’t included in the analysis).
In order to have any chance of changing government policy, popular opinion will have to change. The anti-Brexit vote will have to rise to nearly 55% nationally, from 48% in the referendum, before there will be a majority of seats backing remain. But such a change in opinion is possible. Brexit will be the dominant political issue in the next two years. In Richmond Park, it even trumped Heathrow as a matter of local concern. In order to have any chance of changing government policy, popular opinion will have to change. The anti-Brexit vote would have to rise to nearly 55% nationally, from 48% in the referendum, before there was a majority of seats backing remain. But such a change in opinion is possible. Brexit will be the dominant political issue in the next two years. In Richmond Park, it even trumped Heathrow as a matter of local concern.
As each month passes, the government’s approach to our divorce negotiations seems more and more cack-handed. It is not just threatening to deliver a destructive, hard Brexit; it looks like it is producing a shambolic one. The prime minister says she doesn’t want to publish a plan. But does she even have one? She seems like a rabbit frozen in the headlights of a truck driven crazily by hardliners in her party.As each month passes, the government’s approach to our divorce negotiations seems more and more cack-handed. It is not just threatening to deliver a destructive, hard Brexit; it looks like it is producing a shambolic one. The prime minister says she doesn’t want to publish a plan. But does she even have one? She seems like a rabbit frozen in the headlights of a truck driven crazily by hardliners in her party.
The Richmond Park byelection has put a spring in the step of pro-Europeans. It comes hard on the heels of the government being told by the high court that it cannot trigger article 50, starting formal separation talks, without getting parliament’s approval first.The Richmond Park byelection has put a spring in the step of pro-Europeans. It comes hard on the heels of the government being told by the high court that it cannot trigger article 50, starting formal separation talks, without getting parliament’s approval first.
Despite Olney’s promise to vote against invoking article 50, there’s no chance of blocking the government now. The Liberal Democrats, after all, have just nine MPs and few Labour and Tory MPs are prepared to stick their heads above the parapet. Despite Olney’s promise to vote against invoking article 50, there’s no chance of blocking the government now. The Liberal Democrats, after all, have just nine MPs, and few Labour and Tory MPs are prepared to stick their heads above the parapet.
The best chance of stopping Brexit is not in the next few months but in two years’ time, when May returns from her European negotiations with either a bad deal or no deal at all. That’s when more MPs may have the courage to say that the madness must be stopped and the people given a chance – via a second referendum - to say whether they still want to quit the EU. Richmond Park is a triumph for the Lib Dems. But they mustn’t kid themselves that they are up to the task of defeating Brexit on their own. The best chance of stopping Brexit is not in the next few months, but in two years’ time, when May returns from her European negotiations with either a bad deal or no deal at all. That’s when more MPs may have the courage to say that the madness must be stopped and the people given a chance – via a second referendum – to say whether they still want to quit the EU. Richmond Park is a triumph for the Lib Dems. But they mustn’t kid themselves that they are up to the task of defeating Brexit on their own.
The byelection victory was also a triumph for cross-party alliances and tactical voting. Bravo to the Greens for standing aside and backing Olney. Congratulations to the many pro-European Tories who voted against Zac Goldsmith, despite liking him as a person. Hats off, too, to the Labour MPs Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy and Jonathan Reynolds, who called on their party not to run. Jeremy Corbyn decided to press on regardless. Ordinary Labour voters gave him what he deserved: the party got only 1,515 votes and lost its deposit.The byelection victory was also a triumph for cross-party alliances and tactical voting. Bravo to the Greens for standing aside and backing Olney. Congratulations to the many pro-European Tories who voted against Zac Goldsmith, despite liking him as a person. Hats off, too, to the Labour MPs Clive Lewis, Lisa Nandy and Jonathan Reynolds, who called on their party not to run. Jeremy Corbyn decided to press on regardless. Ordinary Labour voters gave him what he deserved: the party got only 1,515 votes and lost its deposit.
What we saw in Richmond Park was not a fully fledged anti-Brexit alliance. In future electoral contests, there should be a primary to choose a single pro-European candidate to go into battle whenever a hard Brexiter is standing. But this byelection shows the beginnings of a new type of politics. Come the next general election, we’ll need cross-party alliances and imaginative voting on a grand scale.What we saw in Richmond Park was not a fully fledged anti-Brexit alliance. In future electoral contests, there should be a primary to choose a single pro-European candidate to go into battle whenever a hard Brexiter is standing. But this byelection shows the beginnings of a new type of politics. Come the next general election, we’ll need cross-party alliances and imaginative voting on a grand scale.