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Italy referendum: Matteo Renzi to resign after defeat as Austria rejects far right – live Italy referendum: 'Period of uncertainty' predicted after Matteo Renzi's defeat – live
(35 minutes later)
9.27am GMT
09:27
Lee Hardman, currency analyst as the Japanese finacial service company MUFG, says the relatively mild reaction on the markets reflects the irony that a no vote actually limits the risk of anti establishment parties gaining power in Italy.
He said:
“By rejecting the constitutional reforms, the Senate will retain it powers acting as a counter balance to the Chamber of Deputies.
“The system of checks and balances reduces the risk of an anti-establishment party like the Five Star Movement gaining power and being able to call a referendum on the euro.
“The current updated electoral law, which favours majorities in the Chamber of Deputies but is based on more proportional rules in the Senate, also makes it difficult for the Five Star Movement to govern by favouring political fragmentation.
“The award of a majority premium of seats to the most popular party in the Chamber of Deputies will be challenged in court, and the law is likely to be changed under a potential caretaker government to make it favour more the formation of coalitions rather than one party rule which would make it even more difficult for the Five Star Movement to govern.
“The difficulty the Five Star Movement faces in coming into power is one of the reasons why the negative euro reaction has been more modest than some have feared.”
9.21am GMT
09:21
Leading Ukippers are in a jubilant mood.
Let's be clear: Italy has voted against the EU. Soon, there may no longer be an EU from which to Brexit.
Has Nick Clegg called for a second referendum in Italy yet?
I really think Italy needs to leave the eurozone to prosper again. Hoping today's referendum will speed that day.
But Brexit-backing Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan predicts that Italy won’t be leaving the Euro.
Unfortunately, I suspect Italy will keep the euro - despite, to a single approximation, not having grown since it joined in 1999.
9.12am GMT
09:12
Daniele Caprera, the UK spokesman for the Five Star Movement (M5S), has repeated his party’s opposition to Italy’s membership of the Euro.
He was asked on the BBC Radio 4’s Today programme if the M5S would hold a referendum on Euro membership if it gained power.
He said: “The Euro is a problem for Italy right now and we would like to get people’s voice on that. The Euro is damaging the Italian economy and Euro isn’t good enough for Italy right now.”
He dismissed talk of a global populist wave sweeping governments power as a “media agenda”, adding “this is mostly an Italian problem”.
Caprera added: “There is already a crisis in the EU. The current European system doesn’t meet the European people’s needs. It is more of economic system. It doesn’t help socially any of the problems that there are in Europe with immigration, and financial problems. Europe right now is being used to bring in cheap labour, to lower everybody’s salary. It is not a very good system.”
Asked if M5S was on the brink of power, Capera said: “I think so. We are very credible. We want to change Italy. We want to participate in Europe but we need somebody who will listen. So far they have failed ... All they have been focused on is economics and austerity.”
8.55am GMT8.55am GMT
08:5508:55
Sandro Gozi, Italy’s secretary for European affairs, says the project of European unity has lots a key player following the resignation of Matteo Renzi.Sandro Gozi, Italy’s secretary for European affairs, says the project of European unity has lots a key player following the resignation of Matteo Renzi.
Interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme Gozi was asked whether the no vote represented the beginning of Europe breaking apart as he warned before the vote.Interviewed on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme Gozi was asked whether the no vote represented the beginning of Europe breaking apart as he warned before the vote.
He said: “The beginning of Europe’s disintegration started with Brexit and it is up to the other 27 governments to relaunch Europe. That was our policy, that was our goal as the Renzi government. It is clear that Europe now loses a major political actor to its relaunch.”He said: “The beginning of Europe’s disintegration started with Brexit and it is up to the other 27 governments to relaunch Europe. That was our policy, that was our goal as the Renzi government. It is clear that Europe now loses a major political actor to its relaunch.”
Gozi accepted the referendum result will lead to political instability in Italy, but not financial uncertainty.Gozi accepted the referendum result will lead to political instability in Italy, but not financial uncertainty.
He said he did not see any risk to financial stability, but added there were “big questions” now over the reform project in Italy.He said he did not see any risk to financial stability, but added there were “big questions” now over the reform project in Italy.
Gozi said: “It is clear that it was reformers against us: conservative camps, which was a mixture of has beens, many former prime ministers and the populists from the extreme right of the Northern League and the Five Star Movement.Gozi said: “It is clear that it was reformers against us: conservative camps, which was a mixture of has beens, many former prime ministers and the populists from the extreme right of the Northern League and the Five Star Movement.
He added: “It is clear that politically we are in a period of uncertainty. And it clear that the coalition of ‘no’ is coalition of resistance to political change. This is the big question on which we have to work in next days and months.”He added: “It is clear that politically we are in a period of uncertainty. And it clear that the coalition of ‘no’ is coalition of resistance to political change. This is the big question on which we have to work in next days and months.”
8.34am GMT8.34am GMT
08:3408:34
Our Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner warns against over interpreting the results from a binary choice. She points out that many of those who voted no are also bitterly opposed to the far right Northern League and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement.Our Rome correspondent Stephanie Kirchgaessner warns against over interpreting the results from a binary choice. She points out that many of those who voted no are also bitterly opposed to the far right Northern League and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement.
There are no voters who were opposed to changes to constitution, and nothing else. Now they're aghast at being linked to Grillo + SalviniThere are no voters who were opposed to changes to constitution, and nothing else. Now they're aghast at being linked to Grillo + Salvini
8.17am GMT8.17am GMT
08:1708:17
Follow the jittery reaction in the markets on the Guardian’s business blog.Follow the jittery reaction in the markets on the Guardian’s business blog.
8.04am GMT8.04am GMT
08:0408:04
Has Renzi become the latest victim of the global rise in populism? Leading analysts differ. Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the result is ominous for western democracies and shows the current difficulty of governing from the centre.Has Renzi become the latest victim of the global rise in populism? Leading analysts differ. Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, says the result is ominous for western democracies and shows the current difficulty of governing from the centre.
Italian voters didn't just say no but hell no. Further evidence of how hard it is to govern from center. Ominous for western democracies.Italian voters didn't just say no but hell no. Further evidence of how hard it is to govern from center. Ominous for western democracies.
But FT editor, Lionel Barber, advices against generalising from the result pointing to the particular problems facing Italy.But FT editor, Lionel Barber, advices against generalising from the result pointing to the particular problems facing Italy.
Health warning: Renzi is no victim of populist uprising: Italy has not been growing for two decades and referendums are protest vehiclesHealth warning: Renzi is no victim of populist uprising: Italy has not been growing for two decades and referendums are protest vehicles
7.55am GMT7.55am GMT
07:5507:55
Leave.EU, the pro-Brexit campaign funded by former Ukip donor Arron Banks, has welcomed the Italy referendum result and hopes it will lead to Italy leaving the Euro.Leave.EU, the pro-Brexit campaign funded by former Ukip donor Arron Banks, has welcomed the Italy referendum result and hopes it will lead to Italy leaving the Euro.
The wave of people power has spread to Italy as voters force the resignation of PM Renzi. Next step: quit the Euro!https://t.co/p4Zmg7EeRQ pic.twitter.com/XoiIhMWT2bThe wave of people power has spread to Italy as voters force the resignation of PM Renzi. Next step: quit the Euro!https://t.co/p4Zmg7EeRQ pic.twitter.com/XoiIhMWT2b
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.56am GMTat 7.56am GMT
7.48am GMT7.48am GMT
07:4807:48
French president, François Hollande, says he respects the decision of Matteo Renzi to resign. In one of the first reactions from a fellow world leader, Hollande paid tribute to Renzi’s courage and dynamism.French president, François Hollande, says he respects the decision of Matteo Renzi to resign. In one of the first reactions from a fellow world leader, Hollande paid tribute to Renzi’s courage and dynamism.
Hollande, who last week announced he would not be contesting next year’s presidential race in France, said he shares Renzi’s desire to steer Europe towards jobs and growth.Hollande, who last week announced he would not be contesting next year’s presidential race in France, said he shares Renzi’s desire to steer Europe towards jobs and growth.
In a statement from the Élysée Palace he said he hoped Italy could rebound from the current situation.In a statement from the Élysée Palace he said he hoped Italy could rebound from the current situation.
.@fhollande prend acte avec respect de la décision de @matteorenzi de démissionner à la suite du résultat négatif du référendum en Italie pic.twitter.com/XmqiiHLLvM.@fhollande prend acte avec respect de la décision de @matteorenzi de démissionner à la suite du résultat négatif du référendum en Italie pic.twitter.com/XmqiiHLLvM
7.28am GMT7.28am GMT
07:2807:28
Matthew WeaverMatthew Weaver
What eurozone crisis? asks Politico Europe as it urges its readers to stay calm. In its daily Brussels Playbook briefing it says all the talk of crisis is just talk ... for now:What eurozone crisis? asks Politico Europe as it urges its readers to stay calm. In its daily Brussels Playbook briefing it says all the talk of crisis is just talk ... for now:
It’s nearly impossible for a solvent country to leave the euro, and the number of savers with more than €100,000 in fragile banks is very small indeed. While the euro dipped (before rallying) to $1.05 when No emerged victorious, it borders on voodoo-economics to equate small currency movements with fundamental economic strength or weakness.It’s nearly impossible for a solvent country to leave the euro, and the number of savers with more than €100,000 in fragile banks is very small indeed. While the euro dipped (before rallying) to $1.05 when No emerged victorious, it borders on voodoo-economics to equate small currency movements with fundamental economic strength or weakness.
Reality check: Italians voted to reject change. Leaving the eurozone is the biggest change imaginable and wasn’t on the ballot. Renzi’s resignation is no earthquake: Italy will have its 65th government since 1945 — it’ll likely manage. Not that the future looks pretty: The country’s inability to reform and move forward has seen it grow at an average of just 0.6 percent each year since 1960.Reality check: Italians voted to reject change. Leaving the eurozone is the biggest change imaginable and wasn’t on the ballot. Renzi’s resignation is no earthquake: Italy will have its 65th government since 1945 — it’ll likely manage. Not that the future looks pretty: The country’s inability to reform and move forward has seen it grow at an average of just 0.6 percent each year since 1960.
Analysis from Stefano Stefanini: The former diplomat and current La Stampa columnist advises Playbook readers that while Europe is concerned about Italy this morning, Italy is anxious about the post-Renzi government, not the euro. In the medium term, Italy now joins France at the top of the list of 2017 electoral worries. That doesn’t leave Angela Merkel in the clear: she’ll be called upon to help save the EU by helping to save Italy’s political centre.Analysis from Stefano Stefanini: The former diplomat and current La Stampa columnist advises Playbook readers that while Europe is concerned about Italy this morning, Italy is anxious about the post-Renzi government, not the euro. In the medium term, Italy now joins France at the top of the list of 2017 electoral worries. That doesn’t leave Angela Merkel in the clear: she’ll be called upon to help save the EU by helping to save Italy’s political centre.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.51am GMTat 7.51am GMT
7.05am GMT7.05am GMT
07:0507:05
Italy, Austria and more: what we know so farItaly, Austria and more: what we know so far
Claire PhippsClaire Phipps
ItalyItaly
My experience in government ends here … I did all I could to bring this to victory. If you fight for an idea, you cannot lose.My experience in government ends here … I did all I could to bring this to victory. If you fight for an idea, you cannot lose.
AustriaAustria
small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times.small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times.
It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.
MeanwhileMeanwhile
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.07am GMTat 7.07am GMT
6.51am GMT6.51am GMT
06:5106:51
Italy’s Sky TG24, citing pollsters Quorum, says younger voters opted overwhelmingly for no, by 81% to 19% among 18- to 34-year-olds.Italy’s Sky TG24, citing pollsters Quorum, says younger voters opted overwhelmingly for no, by 81% to 19% among 18- to 34-year-olds.
For the 35-54 age group, 67% chose no, with 33% ticking yes.For the 35-54 age group, 67% chose no, with 33% ticking yes.
It was only among the 55+ voters that a majority went for yes, by 53% to 47%.It was only among the 55+ voters that a majority went for yes, by 53% to 47%.
.@QuorumSAS per #SkyTG24: il #No stravince (81%) tra i giovani, il #Sì prevale solo di poco tra gli over 55 #SkyReferendum pic.twitter.com/zkyKlcPrsy.@QuorumSAS per #SkyTG24: il #No stravince (81%) tra i giovani, il #Sì prevale solo di poco tra gli over 55 #SkyReferendum pic.twitter.com/zkyKlcPrsy
6.37am GMT
06:37
Italy referendum: final tally
All votes – from within Italy and overseas ballots – have now been counted.
The final result is:
Turnout was 65.47%.
Updated
at 6.49am GMT
6.34am GMT
06:34
The office of French president Manuel Valls has issued a statement confirming he will make a statement at 6.30pm (5.30pm GMT) but giving no further details.
It’s widely expected that he will announce he is seeking the Socialist candidacy for next year’s presidential election – and could step down as PM to do so.
6.28am GMT
06:28
In other European leader news, French prime minister Manuel Valls is expected to announce a bid for the presidency today, media there are reporting.
The move has been anticipated since François Hollande’s announcement that he would not seek a second term as president.
It’s possible that Valls will resign as prime minister to focus on campaigning for the Socialist party’s primary vote at the end of January.
An announcement is expected at 6.30pm Monday, French media are saying.
6.06am GMT
06:06
Italy and Austria: what we know so far
Claire Phipps
Italy
My experience in government ends here … I did all I could to bring this to victory. If you fight for an idea, you cannot lose.
Viva Trump, viva Putin, viva la Le Pen e viva la Lega! https://t.co/r8FXztp9Am
Austria
small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times.
It doesn’t fill me with joy when someone meddles from outside.
And in completely unrelated news
Updated
at 6.20am GMT
5.48am GMT
05:48
There are three options for what happens next for Italy’s government, AFP reports – one more likely than the others:
1: Renzi stays in power
Theoretically Matteo Renzi could win a vote of confidence in parliament, either with his current majority or with a new one including Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right Forza Italia.
But during his press conference, Renzi seemed to exclude this possibility. “My experience of government finishes here,” he said.
The crushing victory for the ‘no’ camp makes the return of Renzi a very distant possibility.
2: Technocratic government
This is the most likely scenario. President Sergio Mattarella can appoint a head of government with the support of the current majority or a new enlarged majority.
A number of names are already circulating, including finance minister Pier Carlo Padoan and senate leader Pietro Grasso.
The caretaker government would be tasked with passing the 2017 budget in parliament and modifying a new electoral law before elections take place.
He or she could also decide to continue until the end of the current parliamentary term in February 2018.
3: Immediate dissolution of parliament
This is highly unlikely. A recent electoral reform was designed to ensure the leading party has a parliamentary majority in the chamber of deputies, while the failure of the constitutional reform of the senate means it still maintains a proportional system, making the two chambers irreconcilable and a parliamentary majority almost impossible.
The populist Five Star movement, whose founder and leader Beppe Grillo has called for an election “within a week”, believes the electoral law could be modified in the senate if necessary to align it more closely with that of the chamber of deputies.
But most other political parties, who have a majority in parliament, disagree, precisely to avoid a victory of the populist party. They are instead advocating reform of the electoral law.
Updated
at 5.50am GMT
5.34am GMT
05:34
Who is Austria's new president?
Jon Henley
Alexander Van der Bellen, the man who narrowly saw off a far-right challenge to become – albeit largely by default – the first Green head of state in western Europe, is a tall, austere 72-year-old retired economics professor who has often called himself “a child of refugees”.
A Green MP for 18 years before leaving parliament in 2012 to become a popular Vienna city councillor, Van der Bellen ran as an independent – although his campaign, which benefited from broad support particularly on the centre-left aimed at keeping out his nationalist rival – was backed financially by the Greens.
Having consistently scored more highly than the party, he resigned his membership on Monday, saying the president needed to be above party politics.
Viewed by many conservatives as too leftwing, and by more militant Greens as not radical enough, Van der Bellen spent the early part of his political career in the Social Democrats and even flirted briefly with Freemasonry.
A schoolmasterly, sometimes even hectoring, campaigner known as Sascha in reference to his Russian roots, he led the Greens from 1997 to 2008, turning the party into the country’s fourth biggest political force and stepping down only after elections in which it lost votes for the first time in a decade.
A heavy smoker – “I once quit for four months … but why should I torture myself at my age?” – and outspoken supporter of gay marriage, the divorced and recently remarried father of two collected more than 4,000 signatures from Austrian public figures and celebrities during his presidential campaign.
Van der Bellen’s father was born in Russia to a family descended from Dutch immigrants. His mother was born in Estonia, from where both fled when the Red Army invaded in 1940, moving first to Germany and eventually settling in Austria.
Aware of the need to appeal to voters a long way outside the party’s normal base, Van der Bellen, who lists 19th-century Russian literature and Donald Duck cartoons among his interests, has not shied away from espousing a few traditionalist traits.
His campaign videos have featured some unabashed yodelling, his speeches have often referred to the attachment he feels to his Tyrolean Heimat (homeland), and he has repeatedly stressed the social duties and obligation to integrate of Austria’s 90,000 newly arrived refugees.
5.09am GMT
05:09
Italian front pages
La Repubblica goes with: “No wins, Renzi leaves.”
La prima pagina di #Repubblica tra poco in edicola #Referendum #Renzi #dimissioni pic.twitter.com/f11HoXtMB5
Il Tempo probably needs no translation:
@matteorenzi perde il #referendumcostituzionale La @OfficialASRoma trionfa nel derby Ecco la nostra prima pagina Vi aspettiamo in edicola! pic.twitter.com/vYMpDaiT88
And neither does Il Manifesto:
Non #ciaone ma #bellociao. La prima pagina del @ilmanifesto pic.twitter.com/74dkcYgtJi
Regional newspapers L’Alto Adige and Trentino have the referendum sweeping Renzi out:
E buon #lunedì da #Bolzano con la #primapagina dell'@alto_adige di oggi Il #Referendum travolge @matteorenzi pic.twitter.com/WGSw9l0a4j
Buon #lunedì da #Trento con la #primapagina del @Trentino di oggi il #referendum travolge @matteorenzi pic.twitter.com/mBsxw64kt1
4.44am GMT
04:44
One constituency that has overwhelmingly voted ‘yes’ in Italy’s referendum? Overseas voters.
With most of the overseas ballots now counted, yes leads no by 64.92% to 35.08%.
You can see a country-by-country breakdown here.
One group voted overwhelmingly for 'yes' in #italyreferendum: overseas voters pic.twitter.com/OZJbkexML3
4.15am GMT
04:15
Martin Farrer
For more on why the referendum could be bad news for the Italian economy, specifically the banking sector, there’s a good explainer here courtesy of Wolf Richter on his blog, Wolf Street.
To summarise, the country’s banks have bad debts of €286bn sitting on their books. Somehow this situation needs to be dealt with, but the can has been kicked down the road continually in recent years.
One reason is that for the debts to be written off, it means a massive hit for junior bondholders, many of whom are ordinary Italians who were tempted into buying dud bank debt.
The problem is particularly acute for the third largest bank, Monte dei Paschi, which needs a €5bn recapitalisation. But thanks to the referendum, borrowing costs are rising, making it very expensive to get that capital into the bank, which has already gone through two failed rescues.
As Richter writes:
The already complex – and ultimately very costly – task of dealing with Italy’s zombie banks, after years of brushing toxic waste under the rug, has become vastly more complex in the absence of a government with a mandate.
Instability and uncertainty are likely to ricochet from Italy’s banking crisis to the eurozone and its teetering banks, and beyond.
4.04am GMT
04:04
“I lost and I say it loud and clear, even if I have a lump in my throat,” Italy’s prime minister Matteo Renzi said in a late-night press conference.
“Tomorrow afternoon I will call a cabinet meeting … I will then go to the Quirinale where I will tender my resignation to the president.”