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Italy referendum: Exit poll results suggest clear victory for 'No' Italian PM Matteo Renzi resigns after crushing 20-point defeat in constitutional referendum
(about 9 hours later)
Early results from the first exit polls of the Italian referendum suggest that voters have overwhelmingly rejected constitutional reform proposals on which Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has staked his political future.  Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has announced his resignation, saying he takes full responsibility for the "extraordinarily clear defeat" of his package of constitutional reforms in Sunday's referendum.
Polls for national broadcaster Rai and the La7 television channel both called the vote for the No camp by a margin of at least 54 per cent to 46 per cent for the Yes camp, and by an average of between 56.7and  43.3 per cent. With more than 90 per cent of the results in, the "No" campaign led with almost 60 per cent of the vote to slightly over 40 per cent for "Yes", on course to achieve the upper estimate predicted by exit polls. 
Two other polls gave No a similar lead of at least 10 points.  Mr Renzi had conflated his centrist leadership with a "Yes" vote and promised to step down if he lost, and called a news conference in Rome as the result became clear. 
As the polling booths shut at 11pm, the Interior Ministry's website put the voter turnout at 68.33 per cent, indicating that the final turn out could be more than 70 per cent.  Addressing the nation at the Palazzo Chigi on Sunday night, Mr Renzi declared that his "experience of government finishes here". 
The projected result was in line with what opinion polls had been indicating up until 18 November, after which the media were banned from publishing survey results. "We tried, we gave Italians a chance to change but we didn't make it," he said. "We wanted to win not to take part in the competition.
After the exit polls were announced the euro immediately fell against the dollar, dropping to $1.0580 from $1.0625. "I lost. I can admit it and I am sorry. I was not able to lead you to the victory. 
If confirmed, the result would represent a fresh blow to the EU which is struggling to overcome an array of crises and was eager for Mr Renzi to continue his reform drive in the eurozone's heavily indebted, third-largest economy. "Good luck to us all," he concluded.
Defeat could also prompt fresh market upset, especially in the banking sector which has lost almost half its value this year on the Milan bourse, hit by fears over its huge exposure to bad loans accumulated during years of economic downturn. Financial markets reacted immediately to the referendum result, as the euro fell sharply in value against the dollar. It continued to fall upon Mr Renzi's announcement, at one stage hitting $1.0507, its lowest level since March 2015. There are concerns the "No" vote could boost the prospects of opposition groups who are against keeping Italy in the eurozone.
Mr Renzi conflated his centrist leadership with a "Yes" vote and has promised to resign if he loses, triggering political instability and risking plunging Italy’s already struggling economy into a fresh crisis. He has called for a press conference at midnight.  Mr Renzi said he would visit President Sergio Mattarella on Monday to formally hand in his resignation following a final meeting of his cabinet.
Populists the Five Star Movement, led by comedian and Donald Trump admirer Beppe Grillo, claimed the No position, portraying it as something of a protest vote against Mr Renzi's status quo.  Mr Mattarella will then be tasked with brokering the appointment of a new government or, if he is unable do that, ordering early elections.
Mr Renzi, who came to power two years ago aged just 39, aimed to streamline Italy’s political system so he can push through a major economic reform package. He wanted to reduce the number of senators and limit the senate’s power relative to the lower house of parliament. Most political analysts see the most likely scenario being that Renzi's administration will be replaced by a caretaker one dominated by his Democratic Party, which will carry on until an election due to take place by the spring of 2018.
He also wanted to reduce the political power of Italy’s regions. Angelino Alfano, Italy's Interior minister and a Yes supporter, said on Twitter: "Together with million of Italians we played a good game but we lost it. It was good to play it and was the right thing for Italy.”
Few dispute that economic reforms are necessary: the Italian economy has essentially gone nowhere for 16 years and unemployment is high at 11.5 per cent. With the exception of Greece, Italy has had the worst performance of any eurozone country since the 2008 financial crisis. Former Prime Minister of Italy Silvio Berlusconi, who supported the No vote, called for a meeting to change electoral laws and bring about new elections as soon as possible. He was due to speak officially and in more detail on Monday. 
But any political reforms in Italy that have the effect of concentrating political power have, by law, to be put to a popular referendum. This is a legacy of the country’s painful history of a fascist takeover by Mussolini in the wake of the First World War. The reaction in Italy was one of shock - perhaps not at the result itself, but at the scale of Mr Renzi's defeat. The "No" victory was even greater than gloomy opinion polls had indicated up until 18 November, after which the media were banned from publishing survey results.
In the event of a confirmed No vote and Mr Renzi's resignation, it is possible the Italian president, Sergio Mattarella, could appoint another prime minister and a “technocratic” government could keep the show on the road for a while. Amid speculation about what turnout could do to the result, in the end the number of people voting was remarkably high, with the Interior Ministry's website putting it at 68.33 per cent, indicating the final turnout could be more than 70 per cent. 
But if new elections are called for early 2017 it’s conceivable that the Five Star movement could come to power. The party is currently on around 28 per cent in the polls, not far behind Mr Renzi’s Democratic party, which has a 32 per cent share. Mr Renzi had gone into the final weekend of the campaign insisting he could still win voters around but he acknowledged he had failed on Sunday night. "The Italian people spoke today in unequivocal fashion," he said.
If in power, Five Star has said it would hold a referendum to decide whether Italy should leave the eurozone. Mr Renzi, who came to power two years ago aged just 39, aimed to streamline Italy’s political system so he could push through a major economic reform package. He wanted to reduce the number of senators and limit the senate’s power relative to the lower house of parliament. He also wanted to reduce the political power of Italy’s regions.
In light of this, a victory for No could start a panic financial markets and traders assume the country is on a slippery slope to leaving the eurozone. The populist Five Star Movement, led by comedian and Donald Trump admirer Beppe Grillo, backed the No position, portraying it as a protest vote against Mr Renzi's status quo and Sunday's vote presented a major victory to the party. 
If the eurozone economy goes into another slump brought on by a fresh financial panic it will damage growth in the UK by depressing exports and domestic UK business investment. Unemployment would rise and living standards would fall. Prominent Five Star figure Alessandro Di Battista said in a press conference following the result: “We can change our constitution now to give more power to citizens.
The pound may well gain against the euro – which would be good for holidaymakers heading to the Continent – but the overall economic impact of a return of the eurozone crisis for Britons would almost certainly be negative. "We want to thank voters for choosing 'No', but now it's time to stop saying that [Five Star] is an anti-politics movement.
Additional reporting by agencies  "We defended the values of the Italian constitution. If there is an anti-politics party it is the Democratic Party, not us."
Opposition parties had denounced the proposed amendments to the 68-year-old constitution as dangerous for democracy because they would have removed important checks and balances on executive power.
Yet few dispute that economic reforms are necessary: the Italian economy has essentially gone nowhere for 16 years and unemployment is high at 11.5 per cent. With the exception of Greece, Italy has had the worst performance of any eurozone country since the 2008 financial crisis.
The result means it is likely new elections will be called, making it conceivable that the Five Star Movement could come to power. The party is currently on around 28 per cent in the polls, not far behind Mr Renzi’s Democratic party, which has a 32 per cent share. If in power, Five Star has said it would hold a referendum to decide whether Italy should leave the eurozone.
But the fact that they all united to fight Mr Renzi's constitutional changes does not mean Italy's opposition is any more united on other matters.
Speaking to La7 TV in the wake of the result, Matteo Salvini, leader of the anti-immigrant Lega Nord, said: "Even if we fought together with parties like Five Star Movement and some left-wing parties supporting 'No' and the result reflects the will of the people, we don't share with those parties the same political views regarding refugees and the role of Italy in Europe."
Asked if there were any parallels to be drawn between the referendum and the UK's Brexit vote, Five Star's Luigi Di Maio said: “We're not going to leave EU, we're leaving Renzi's era.”