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| What next for New Zealand? National party loses John Key's personal appeal | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| New Zealand’s opposition parties will be thinking “all their Christmases have come at once” following the surprise resignation of prime minister John Key, whose personal popularity was their greatest obstacle to winning the 2017 election, analysts have said. | New Zealand’s opposition parties will be thinking “all their Christmases have come at once” following the surprise resignation of prime minister John Key, whose personal popularity was their greatest obstacle to winning the 2017 election, analysts have said. |
| They may be hoping to capitalise on a turbulent year for New Zealand, during which the privileged leader of the National party was increasingly charged with being “out of touch” with middle New Zealand – traditionally his strongest support base. | They may be hoping to capitalise on a turbulent year for New Zealand, during which the privileged leader of the National party was increasingly charged with being “out of touch” with middle New Zealand – traditionally his strongest support base. |
| The party had been strongly criticised throughout 2016 for failing to take decisive action on the Auckland housing crisis, child poverty, and the failed flag referendum. | The party had been strongly criticised throughout 2016 for failing to take decisive action on the Auckland housing crisis, child poverty, and the failed flag referendum. |
| However, some analysts believe the timing of Key’s departure could give his successor enough time before next year’s vote. Professor Raymond Miller, a political scientist from Auckland university, said: “It is a shock that he resigned [now], but it will give his successor time to bed into the new position and build up a support base within the party,” he said. | However, some analysts believe the timing of Key’s departure could give his successor enough time before next year’s vote. Professor Raymond Miller, a political scientist from Auckland university, said: “It is a shock that he resigned [now], but it will give his successor time to bed into the new position and build up a support base within the party,” he said. |
| The odds-on favourite to succeed Key at a meeting of National party MPs on 12 December is finance minister Bill English, following his anointing by Key in his announcement, though he has yet to formally put himself forward. | The odds-on favourite to succeed Key at a meeting of National party MPs on 12 December is finance minister Bill English, following his anointing by Key in his announcement, though he has yet to formally put himself forward. |
| Miller said: “It is rare for an outgoing prime minister to name his successor and the party will be wanting a smooth transition to remain strong going into the 201 7 election, and not show any sense of internal strife. As finance minister, English has been very solid, and it is reassuring because it will mean the markets can rumble on.” | Miller said: “It is rare for an outgoing prime minister to name his successor and the party will be wanting a smooth transition to remain strong going into the 201 7 election, and not show any sense of internal strife. As finance minister, English has been very solid, and it is reassuring because it will mean the markets can rumble on.” |
| Other potential contenders include older, experienced politicians such as Steven Joyce or Judith Collins. However, Joyce and Collins – and English – struggle with projecting the warmth and ease in front of the camera that Key mastered during his time in office, said Dr Jon Johansson, a political scientist from Victoria University. | Other potential contenders include older, experienced politicians such as Steven Joyce or Judith Collins. However, Joyce and Collins – and English – struggle with projecting the warmth and ease in front of the camera that Key mastered during his time in office, said Dr Jon Johansson, a political scientist from Victoria University. |
| English has yet to comment on whether he is interested in serving as prime minister, though he did release a statement congratulating Key on being one of New Zealand’s “greatest leaders”. | English has yet to comment on whether he is interested in serving as prime minister, though he did release a statement congratulating Key on being one of New Zealand’s “greatest leaders”. |
| “While the gap he leaves is huge, we understand and respect his decision to step down from a job from which there is no respite. We wish John and his family every success with their life out of the public eye.” | “While the gap he leaves is huge, we understand and respect his decision to step down from a job from which there is no respite. We wish John and his family every success with their life out of the public eye.” |
| “It is a tribute to the prime minister’s outstanding leadership that he will leave behind a united team with plenty of talent to take New Zealand forward and build on his legacy.” | “It is a tribute to the prime minister’s outstanding leadership that he will leave behind a united team with plenty of talent to take New Zealand forward and build on his legacy.” |
| Despite a number of challenges Key’s government faced, namely the housing crisis and child poverty, his personal popularity remained astonishingly high, and political scientists said the National party might struggle to find a replacement who can match Key’s likability and seeming ordinariness, which have previously been a huge draw-card for voters during his three terms in office. | Despite a number of challenges Key’s government faced, namely the housing crisis and child poverty, his personal popularity remained astonishingly high, and political scientists said the National party might struggle to find a replacement who can match Key’s likability and seeming ordinariness, which have previously been a huge draw-card for voters during his three terms in office. |
| “Key conformed to a trait that has been essential to all New Zealand’s most popular prime ministers: a sense that he was one of us,” said Johansson. | “Key conformed to a trait that has been essential to all New Zealand’s most popular prime ministers: a sense that he was one of us,” said Johansson. |
| “Key is the National party for all intents and purposes, that affable personality and political astuteness has been the engine behind the party for so long. So his departure will introduce a level of uncertainty about next year’s election that didn’t exist 24 hours ago.” | “Key is the National party for all intents and purposes, that affable personality and political astuteness has been the engine behind the party for so long. So his departure will introduce a level of uncertainty about next year’s election that didn’t exist 24 hours ago.” |
| Leading up to Monday’s surprise announcement there was no hint of Key’s decision to leave politics, and the news shocked politicians across the board, as well as the public. | Leading up to Monday’s surprise announcement there was no hint of Key’s decision to leave politics, and the news shocked politicians across the board, as well as the public. |
| Yet the timing of Key’s resignation was a “very smart strategic move by National”, because a fresh face with new ideas could be a boon for the party, said Jennifer Lees-Marshment, associate professor of politics at Auckland University. | Yet the timing of Key’s resignation was a “very smart strategic move by National”, because a fresh face with new ideas could be a boon for the party, said Jennifer Lees-Marshment, associate professor of politics at Auckland University. |
| “Key has left New Zealand more ambitious, dynamic, and vibrant. But it now needs someone new who can create a vision for the next stage,” said Lees-Marshment. | “Key has left New Zealand more ambitious, dynamic, and vibrant. But it now needs someone new who can create a vision for the next stage,” said Lees-Marshment. |
| “To his credit, John Key’s effective political management has left in place a number of people who can take on this role. Whilst the National brand may have had a shock, it has been given a rare opportunity to rejuvenate and increase its chance of winning not just in 2017 but 2020.” | “To his credit, John Key’s effective political management has left in place a number of people who can take on this role. Whilst the National brand may have had a shock, it has been given a rare opportunity to rejuvenate and increase its chance of winning not just in 2017 but 2020.” |