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| Highlights: Italy Considers What’s Next After Matteo Renzi Loses Referendum | |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| ■ Prime Minister Matteo Renzi offered his resignation on Monday, as promised. But Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, said in a statement that he had asked Mr. Renzi to delay stepping down until Parliament passes a budget for 2017. | ■ Prime Minister Matteo Renzi offered his resignation on Monday, as promised. But Italy’s president, Sergio Mattarella, said in a statement that he had asked Mr. Renzi to delay stepping down until Parliament passes a budget for 2017. |
| ■ Mr. Renzi had said he would resign after voters rejected changes to the Constitution that he supported in what amounted to a referendum on the prime minister’s government. | ■ Mr. Renzi had said he would resign after voters rejected changes to the Constitution that he supported in what amounted to a referendum on the prime minister’s government. |
| ■ The decision to hold a referendum is another example of why political scientists say such votes are often “messy and dangerous.” | ■ The decision to hold a referendum is another example of why political scientists say such votes are often “messy and dangerous.” |
| ■ The results represented another victory for anti-establishment movements in Europe. “Times have changed,” said Beppe Grillo, the leader of the populist Five Star Movement. | ■ The results represented another victory for anti-establishment movements in Europe. “Times have changed,” said Beppe Grillo, the leader of the populist Five Star Movement. |
| As promised, Mr. Renzi submitted his resignation to Mr. Mattarella on Monday evening at the Quirinale Palace, the president’s official residence, but the president asked Mr. Renzi to defer his resignation to see through the approval of his government’s budget. | As promised, Mr. Renzi submitted his resignation to Mr. Mattarella on Monday evening at the Quirinale Palace, the president’s official residence, but the president asked Mr. Renzi to defer his resignation to see through the approval of his government’s budget. |
| “Given the need to complete the parliamentary process to approve the budget law,” Mr. Mattarella asked Mr. Renzi to postpone stepping down until the budget, now being discussed in the Senate, had been passed, according to the statement from the president’s office. | “Given the need to complete the parliamentary process to approve the budget law,” Mr. Mattarella asked Mr. Renzi to postpone stepping down until the budget, now being discussed in the Senate, had been passed, according to the statement from the president’s office. |
| An official from the office said the budget was expected to be passed this week. | An official from the office said the budget was expected to be passed this week. |
| Mr. Mattarella’s request was not unusual: His predecessor, Giorgio Napolitano, had “frozen” the resignations of two prime ministers so that pending laws could be passed. | Mr. Mattarella’s request was not unusual: His predecessor, Giorgio Napolitano, had “frozen” the resignations of two prime ministers so that pending laws could be passed. |
| Before his meeting with the president, Mr. Renzi briefly conferred with his cabinet at the Chigi Palace, the prime minister’s residence in Rome, where the night before Mr. Renzi announced in an emotional news conference, “the experience of my government ends here.” | Before his meeting with the president, Mr. Renzi briefly conferred with his cabinet at the Chigi Palace, the prime minister’s residence in Rome, where the night before Mr. Renzi announced in an emotional news conference, “the experience of my government ends here.” |
| Once Mr. Renzi’s resignation eventually takes effect, Mr. Mattarella will work with Italian political leaders to discuss what comes next. — ELISABETTA POVOLEDO and JASON HOROWITZ | Once Mr. Renzi’s resignation eventually takes effect, Mr. Mattarella will work with Italian political leaders to discuss what comes next. — ELISABETTA POVOLEDO and JASON HOROWITZ |
| Italy greeted the news of Mr. Renzi’s symbolic defeat with uncertainty on Monday. A headline in the daily La Repubblica declaring, “The No Triumphs, Renzi Quits,” echoing the sentiment in most newspapers. | Italy greeted the news of Mr. Renzi’s symbolic defeat with uncertainty on Monday. A headline in the daily La Repubblica declaring, “The No Triumphs, Renzi Quits,” echoing the sentiment in most newspapers. |
| Commentators acknowledged Mr. Renzi’s dignified reaction to what mostly seemed a vote against his tenure, and they called for responsibility from political forces. | Commentators acknowledged Mr. Renzi’s dignified reaction to what mostly seemed a vote against his tenure, and they called for responsibility from political forces. |
| “Now the reality is the risk of a return to the swamps and to instability,” Mario Calabresi, editor in chief of La Repubblica, wrote in a front-page editorial on Monday. “A scenario that Italy really doesn’t need.” | “Now the reality is the risk of a return to the swamps and to instability,” Mario Calabresi, editor in chief of La Repubblica, wrote in a front-page editorial on Monday. “A scenario that Italy really doesn’t need.” |
| Once Mr. Renzi’s resignation is official and he steps down, Mr. Mattarella would then hold talks with the political parties trying to form a caretaker government or call early elections. | Once Mr. Renzi’s resignation is official and he steps down, Mr. Mattarella would then hold talks with the political parties trying to form a caretaker government or call early elections. |
| According to the Italian news media, one candidate who could lead a temporary government is Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, a technocrat. The speaker of the Senate, Pietro Grasso, a longtime anti-mafia magistrate, is also a possibility. | According to the Italian news media, one candidate who could lead a temporary government is Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, a technocrat. The speaker of the Senate, Pietro Grasso, a longtime anti-mafia magistrate, is also a possibility. |
| Although most opposition parties are pushing for quick elections, opponents of Mr. Renzi in his Democratic Party are more inclined to take their time. — GAIA PIANIGIANI | Although most opposition parties are pushing for quick elections, opponents of Mr. Renzi in his Democratic Party are more inclined to take their time. — GAIA PIANIGIANI |
| Beppe Grillo, the leader of the Five Star Movement who campaigned against the proposed constitutional changes and against Mr. Renzi, declared on Monday that “times have changed.” | Beppe Grillo, the leader of the Five Star Movement who campaigned against the proposed constitutional changes and against Mr. Renzi, declared on Monday that “times have changed.” |
| How much so may depend on Mr. Grillo’s ability to parlay his latest success into a full sweep of the political establishment he has thumbed his nose at for years. | How much so may depend on Mr. Grillo’s ability to parlay his latest success into a full sweep of the political establishment he has thumbed his nose at for years. |
| Mr. Grillo, a former comedian, said that Italians should waste no time pressing for a new electoral law and for the dismantling of the old order. | Mr. Grillo, a former comedian, said that Italians should waste no time pressing for a new electoral law and for the dismantling of the old order. |
| “You should vote as soon as possible,” he said in a blog post on Monday to rally his supporters against the usual jockeying by parties for power in a caretaker government. “The parties will do anything to drag their feet,” he said. | “You should vote as soon as possible,” he said in a blog post on Monday to rally his supporters against the usual jockeying by parties for power in a caretaker government. “The parties will do anything to drag their feet,” he said. |
| The Five Star Movement won a quarter of the vote in 2013 national elections. Mr. Grillo said then that cooperating with traditional parties in any sort of alliance would be akin to capitulation. | The Five Star Movement won a quarter of the vote in 2013 national elections. Mr. Grillo said then that cooperating with traditional parties in any sort of alliance would be akin to capitulation. |
| “The existing political class must be expelled immediately,” he said in an interview at that time with The New York Times. — JEFFREY MARCUS | “The existing political class must be expelled immediately,” he said in an interview at that time with The New York Times. — JEFFREY MARCUS |
| A breakdown of returns shows that opposition to the constitutional changes was widespread, though more pronounced in the south. | A breakdown of returns shows that opposition to the constitutional changes was widespread, though more pronounced in the south. |
| Only three regions backed the changes: the historically leftist areas of Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna in central Italy, and Trentino-Alto Adige in the far north. | Only three regions backed the changes: the historically leftist areas of Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna in central Italy, and Trentino-Alto Adige in the far north. |
| In the economically struggling Sicily and Sardinia, which voted against the changes, the divide between the camps was as large as 44 percentage points. The pattern was similar in areas with high unemployment and social problems. | In the economically struggling Sicily and Sardinia, which voted against the changes, the divide between the camps was as large as 44 percentage points. The pattern was similar in areas with high unemployment and social problems. |
| “The country isn’t growing, and voters blamed their personal condition on the government,” said Stefano Folli, a commentator for La Repubblica. | “The country isn’t growing, and voters blamed their personal condition on the government,” said Stefano Folli, a commentator for La Repubblica. |
| The results also reflected a generational divide. According to a survey reported by the news channel Sky TG24, young voters rejected the proposed changes, while more than half of those over 55 supported them. — GAIA PIANIGIANI | The results also reflected a generational divide. According to a survey reported by the news channel Sky TG24, young voters rejected the proposed changes, while more than half of those over 55 supported them. — GAIA PIANIGIANI |
| In analyzing the results, Italian pundits did not always agree, except on one point: the severe consequences for Mr. Renzi. | In analyzing the results, Italian pundits did not always agree, except on one point: the severe consequences for Mr. Renzi. |
| “Does Renzi represent the country from a political, cultural point of view? Yesterday’s vote is a clear rejection of Renzi’s economic policies and of how he envisioned the country,” the political commentator Mario Sechi said. Mr. Renzi “doesn’t represent the zeitgeist of the nation, which did not follow him,” he added. | “Does Renzi represent the country from a political, cultural point of view? Yesterday’s vote is a clear rejection of Renzi’s economic policies and of how he envisioned the country,” the political commentator Mario Sechi said. Mr. Renzi “doesn’t represent the zeitgeist of the nation, which did not follow him,” he added. |
| For Mr. Sechi, the Five Star Movement is the clear victor, even if the “no” campaign brought together divergent political forces. | For Mr. Sechi, the Five Star Movement is the clear victor, even if the “no” campaign brought together divergent political forces. |
| Sergio Fabbrini, director of the Luiss School of Government in Rome, said the outcome was less clear. Rejection of the constitutional changes was actually a reaction to Mr. Renzi’s “reformist program that in some way threatened a big part of the social political equilibrium,” he said. | Sergio Fabbrini, director of the Luiss School of Government in Rome, said the outcome was less clear. Rejection of the constitutional changes was actually a reaction to Mr. Renzi’s “reformist program that in some way threatened a big part of the social political equilibrium,” he said. |
| The nearly 60 percent of the population that voted against him is “highly divided, with nothing in common, and no leader,” Mr. Fabbrini said. What joins them is a conservative, anti-European outlook. “Within that, you have the most extreme left and right.” | The nearly 60 percent of the population that voted against him is “highly divided, with nothing in common, and no leader,” Mr. Fabbrini said. What joins them is a conservative, anti-European outlook. “Within that, you have the most extreme left and right.” |
| The person to watch in the short term is Mr. Mattarella, the president. “This is the first real test of the president of the Republic, who has kept mostly in the background,” said Antonio Polito, deputy director of the Milan-based daily Corriere della Sera. — ELISABETTA POVOLEDO | The person to watch in the short term is Mr. Mattarella, the president. “This is the first real test of the president of the Republic, who has kept mostly in the background,” said Antonio Polito, deputy director of the Milan-based daily Corriere della Sera. — ELISABETTA POVOLEDO |
| The euro recovered from early losses, and European stocks edged up. It was a muted reaction, in part because a vote against the constitutional changes had been expected, giving investors time to adjust their portfolios. Also, political instability in Rome is not unusual. | The euro recovered from early losses, and European stocks edged up. It was a muted reaction, in part because a vote against the constitutional changes had been expected, giving investors time to adjust their portfolios. Also, political instability in Rome is not unusual. |
| But analysts said Italy was not in the clear, and there is potential for market turmoil in the case of government paralysis and of delays to plans to fix Italy’s ailing banks. | But analysts said Italy was not in the clear, and there is potential for market turmoil in the case of government paralysis and of delays to plans to fix Italy’s ailing banks. |
| The euro first fell as much as 1.5 percent against the dollar in Asian trading after the vote, but recovered by the morning in Europe, and it even gained ground compared with last week. Major European stock markets were all slightly higher. — JACK EWING | The euro first fell as much as 1.5 percent against the dollar in Asian trading after the vote, but recovered by the morning in Europe, and it even gained ground compared with last week. Major European stock markets were all slightly higher. — JACK EWING |
| The vote results and Mr. Renzi’s decision to step down drew a jubilant response from other populist leaders in Europe. | The vote results and Mr. Renzi’s decision to step down drew a jubilant response from other populist leaders in Europe. |
| “Italians have disavowed the E.U. and Renzi,” Marine Le Pen, the head of the National Front in France, wrote on Twitter. “We need to listen to this thirst for nations’ freedom and for protection!” | “Italians have disavowed the E.U. and Renzi,” Marine Le Pen, the head of the National Front in France, wrote on Twitter. “We need to listen to this thirst for nations’ freedom and for protection!” |
| With polls predicting that Ms. Le Pen will reach the 2017 presidential election runoff, she has sought to build an anti-establishment platform calling for a “Frexit” and a “People’s Spring.” The vote in Britain to withdraw from the European Union, known as Brexit, and Donald J. Trump’s recent victory in the United States have put wind in her sails. | With polls predicting that Ms. Le Pen will reach the 2017 presidential election runoff, she has sought to build an anti-establishment platform calling for a “Frexit” and a “People’s Spring.” The vote in Britain to withdraw from the European Union, known as Brexit, and Donald J. Trump’s recent victory in the United States have put wind in her sails. |
| The far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders, who recently refused to attend his hate-speech trial, used Twitter to congratulate “Italia + Matteo Salvini,” a reference to the leader of the anti-immigrant Northern League. — BENOÎT MORENNE | The far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders, who recently refused to attend his hate-speech trial, used Twitter to congratulate “Italia + Matteo Salvini,” a reference to the leader of the anti-immigrant Northern League. — BENOÎT MORENNE |
| Writing in Italy’s leading economic newspaper, Il Sole 24 Ore, the columnist Guido Gentili said that after the referendum, Italy needed to show through actions and legislation that it “is not impermeable to reform.” | Writing in Italy’s leading economic newspaper, Il Sole 24 Ore, the columnist Guido Gentili said that after the referendum, Italy needed to show through actions and legislation that it “is not impermeable to reform.” |
| The image of Italy as a nation that “bobs more or less happily in stagnant water between the third largest public debt in the world and a banking system in a deep coma” must be “vigorously contested,” he wrote. | The image of Italy as a nation that “bobs more or less happily in stagnant water between the third largest public debt in the world and a banking system in a deep coma” must be “vigorously contested,” he wrote. |
| Vincenzo Boccia, the president of Italy’s main business lobby, Confindustria, said the referendum results highlighted the need to tackle pressing economic issues like “debt, deficit and still-insufficient growth.” | Vincenzo Boccia, the president of Italy’s main business lobby, Confindustria, said the referendum results highlighted the need to tackle pressing economic issues like “debt, deficit and still-insufficient growth.” |
| “Growth is the only way to eliminate inequalities and poverty,” he said in a statement issued Monday morning. Italian companies have been making “crucial efforts” to compete in international markets, he added, and need the government to back them up. — ELISABETTA POVOLEDO | “Growth is the only way to eliminate inequalities and poverty,” he said in a statement issued Monday morning. Italian companies have been making “crucial efforts” to compete in international markets, he added, and need the government to back them up. — ELISABETTA POVOLEDO |
| The populist victory in Italy was hailed by many like-minded leaders across Eastern Europe, where similar sentiments are on the rise, but their reaction was tempered by widespread concern that the results would accelerate the fraying of the European Union, upon which the region has come to depend. | The populist victory in Italy was hailed by many like-minded leaders across Eastern Europe, where similar sentiments are on the rise, but their reaction was tempered by widespread concern that the results would accelerate the fraying of the European Union, upon which the region has come to depend. |
| Poland, the largest economy in the region, seemed torn between praising a victory by populists who share its governing party views and worrying about vulnerability to Russia. | Poland, the largest economy in the region, seemed torn between praising a victory by populists who share its governing party views and worrying about vulnerability to Russia. |
| “This would be a major blow not just for the E.U. but for the eurozone,” Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski said in an interview with Polish state radio. “What will the future bring?” | “This would be a major blow not just for the E.U. but for the eurozone,” Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski said in an interview with Polish state radio. “What will the future bring?” |
| Tomas Sedlacek, chief macroeconomic strategist in Prague for the lender CSOB, tied the Italian defeat directly to Mr. Trump’s victory and predicted a dire future. “Democracy, and the future of the euro in Europe, is truly walking on the edge of a knife,” he said. | Tomas Sedlacek, chief macroeconomic strategist in Prague for the lender CSOB, tied the Italian defeat directly to Mr. Trump’s victory and predicted a dire future. “Democracy, and the future of the euro in Europe, is truly walking on the edge of a knife,” he said. |
| In Slovakia, where anti-euro sentiment is widespread, many residents say that embracing the currency led to higher prices for everyday goods. “We can expect a referendum about leaving the eurozone,” predicted Richard Zulik, leader of Slovakia’s liberal Freedom and Solidarity party. — RICK LYMAN | In Slovakia, where anti-euro sentiment is widespread, many residents say that embracing the currency led to higher prices for everyday goods. “We can expect a referendum about leaving the eurozone,” predicted Richard Zulik, leader of Slovakia’s liberal Freedom and Solidarity party. — RICK LYMAN |
| Finance ministers from the 19 countries that use the euro expressed relief that the economic reaction to the Italian referendum was muted. Yet the vote could still roil the European Union: It threatens to embolden opponents of the single currency, which could destabilize the Italian economy and foment turmoil in the banking sector. | Finance ministers from the 19 countries that use the euro expressed relief that the economic reaction to the Italian referendum was muted. Yet the vote could still roil the European Union: It threatens to embolden opponents of the single currency, which could destabilize the Italian economy and foment turmoil in the banking sector. |
| Helping to stoke that concern is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s oldest lender, which faces questions about whether it has sufficient capital. | Helping to stoke that concern is Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s oldest lender, which faces questions about whether it has sufficient capital. |
| Asked whether a planned capital increase for the bank would now be delayed, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the president of the so-called Eurogroup of finance ministers, emphasized that Italy first needed to select a new leader. | Asked whether a planned capital increase for the bank would now be delayed, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the president of the so-called Eurogroup of finance ministers, emphasized that Italy first needed to select a new leader. |
| Even as Brussels scrambled to stave off negative financial consequences, ministers from fiscally hawkish countries like Germany and the Netherlands will not want to be seen by their own electorates as being overly permissive toward Italy. | Even as Brussels scrambled to stave off negative financial consequences, ministers from fiscally hawkish countries like Germany and the Netherlands will not want to be seen by their own electorates as being overly permissive toward Italy. |
| — JAMES KANTER | — JAMES KANTER |