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| Who will rescue the French left after Hollande’s discredited presidency? | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| When France’s President François Hollande started talking on Thursday evening in a live broadcast from the Elysée Palace, he began by listing his achievements since the beginning of his term, four and a half years ago. It could have signalled the start of his bid for a second mandate, but for his emotional tone, his broken voice. | When France’s President François Hollande started talking on Thursday evening in a live broadcast from the Elysée Palace, he began by listing his achievements since the beginning of his term, four and a half years ago. It could have signalled the start of his bid for a second mandate, but for his emotional tone, his broken voice. |
| If no one should have been surprised that the most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic decided not to fight for a certain defeat, it still shocked French citizens so used to seeing their politicians fight till their political death – like former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who had a humiliating exit 10 days earlier. | If no one should have been surprised that the most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic decided not to fight for a certain defeat, it still shocked French citizens so used to seeing their politicians fight till their political death – like former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who had a humiliating exit 10 days earlier. |
| Hollande explained his surprise decision by saying he wanted to avoid the “dispersion and explosion of the left in France”. Nevertheless, it’s not enough to “save” the left from its divisions, weaknesses, and probable defeat in next year’s presidential election. | Hollande explained his surprise decision by saying he wanted to avoid the “dispersion and explosion of the left in France”. Nevertheless, it’s not enough to “save” the left from its divisions, weaknesses, and probable defeat in next year’s presidential election. |
| If the far right, with Marine Le Pen, and the traditional right with François Fillon, have their declared champions, the left still has a dozen potential candidates – a crowded field that will almost certainly not come down to one by the first round of the presidential vote in five months’ time. | If the far right, with Marine Le Pen, and the traditional right with François Fillon, have their declared champions, the left still has a dozen potential candidates – a crowded field that will almost certainly not come down to one by the first round of the presidential vote in five months’ time. |
| President Hollande’s exit has almost certainly opened the field for his own prime minister, Manuel Valls, to launch his bid. There was tension in the past week when 54-year-old Valls made his ambitions increasingly visible. The prospect of having the president and his head of government opposing each other in primaries was unthinkable – and was certainly a factor in Hollande’s decision. | President Hollande’s exit has almost certainly opened the field for his own prime minister, Manuel Valls, to launch his bid. There was tension in the past week when 54-year-old Valls made his ambitions increasingly visible. The prospect of having the president and his head of government opposing each other in primaries was unthinkable – and was certainly a factor in Hollande’s decision. |
| It’s not enough to ‘save' the left from its divisions, weaknesses and probable defeat in the presidential election | It’s not enough to ‘save' the left from its divisions, weaknesses and probable defeat in the presidential election |
| But Manuel Valls is not the “natural candidate” of the left. He will first have to fight his way through the Socialist party primaries, in January, and face tough opposition from two ex-ministers who served under him – former economy minister Arnaud Montebourg, and labour minister Benoît Hamon. Both left the government in August 2014 after a concerted assault on the pro-business turn taken by the socialist government – led by Valls. | But Manuel Valls is not the “natural candidate” of the left. He will first have to fight his way through the Socialist party primaries, in January, and face tough opposition from two ex-ministers who served under him – former economy minister Arnaud Montebourg, and labour minister Benoît Hamon. Both left the government in August 2014 after a concerted assault on the pro-business turn taken by the socialist government – led by Valls. |
| Montebourg and Valls know each other well. They both ran in the 2011 primaries won by Hollande, and personified two styles, two political orientations within the Socialist party. Montebourg, an eloquent 54-year-old lawyer, won 17% of the vote on an anti-globalisation platform, far ahead of law-and-order, business-friendly Valls and his 5.6%. | Montebourg and Valls know each other well. They both ran in the 2011 primaries won by Hollande, and personified two styles, two political orientations within the Socialist party. Montebourg, an eloquent 54-year-old lawyer, won 17% of the vote on an anti-globalisation platform, far ahead of law-and-order, business-friendly Valls and his 5.6%. |
| Again today, Montebourg leads the crowded pack of declared candidates. If Valls decides to run, the vote will decide how far to the left the PS (Socialist party) will stand, albeit weakened and short of fresh ideas after five exhausting years in power. | Again today, Montebourg leads the crowded pack of declared candidates. If Valls decides to run, the vote will decide how far to the left the PS (Socialist party) will stand, albeit weakened and short of fresh ideas after five exhausting years in power. |
| But the left doesn’t stop at the Socialist party. Even if he were to win – which is far from sure, as he will have to defend a controversial legacy – Valls will have to face at least two other major candidates who are refusing to take part in the primary process. | But the left doesn’t stop at the Socialist party. Even if he were to win – which is far from sure, as he will have to defend a controversial legacy – Valls will have to face at least two other major candidates who are refusing to take part in the primary process. |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a 65-year-old former Socialist party member and minister, broke ranks with the PS in 2008 to launch his own Parti de Gauche (PG, Left party), and is a radical critic of Hollande and Valls. He already ran in the 2012 presidential election, finishing fourth with 11% of the vote. | Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a 65-year-old former Socialist party member and minister, broke ranks with the PS in 2008 to launch his own Parti de Gauche (PG, Left party), and is a radical critic of Hollande and Valls. He already ran in the 2012 presidential election, finishing fourth with 11% of the vote. |
| He is determined to take over the leadership of the left and hopes to finish ahead of the Socialist candidate next May. A political battle combined with personal revenge against his former comrades, whom he accuses of betrayal and complacency towards business, “Brussels” and Merkel’s financial orthodoxy. Mélenchon seemed to be in a position to win his gamble if President Hollande had decided to run. Latest polls gave him twice the vote of the discredited outgoing president. But it remains to be seen if he can do the same to Valls, who is not as weak as Hollande in public eyes. | He is determined to take over the leadership of the left and hopes to finish ahead of the Socialist candidate next May. A political battle combined with personal revenge against his former comrades, whom he accuses of betrayal and complacency towards business, “Brussels” and Merkel’s financial orthodoxy. Mélenchon seemed to be in a position to win his gamble if President Hollande had decided to run. Latest polls gave him twice the vote of the discredited outgoing president. But it remains to be seen if he can do the same to Valls, who is not as weak as Hollande in public eyes. |
| Lastly, the real unknown quantity is Emmanuel Macron, the former economy minister, who runs his own private campaign on a reformist platform, without a proper party, betting on his youth – he’s only 38 – and a neither-right-nor-left approach, although he came to politics thanks to the current president. | Lastly, the real unknown quantity is Emmanuel Macron, the former economy minister, who runs his own private campaign on a reformist platform, without a proper party, betting on his youth – he’s only 38 – and a neither-right-nor-left approach, although he came to politics thanks to the current president. |
| In an interview with Le Monde on Friday, the economist Thomas Piketty, who tried in vain to organise independent primaries of all the left candidates earlier this year, calls on Mélenchon, Macron and all the socialist candidates to come together in open primaries now the outgoing president won’t run. “Everything is still possible,” he said. | In an interview with Le Monde on Friday, the economist Thomas Piketty, who tried in vain to organise independent primaries of all the left candidates earlier this year, calls on Mélenchon, Macron and all the socialist candidates to come together in open primaries now the outgoing president won’t run. “Everything is still possible,” he said. |
| But personal rivalries, together with radically opposed political positions, make it most likely that there will be more than one candidate from the left in next year’s election, even if it means none of them make it to the second round. | But personal rivalries, together with radically opposed political positions, make it most likely that there will be more than one candidate from the left in next year’s election, even if it means none of them make it to the second round. |
| The likelihood of defeat to the right, or even far right, should be powerful enough to overcome divisions, but not in the confused world of the French left. | The likelihood of defeat to the right, or even far right, should be powerful enough to overcome divisions, but not in the confused world of the French left. |