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| UK's trade deficit before Brexit vote narrower than first calculated UK's trade deficit before Brexit vote narrower than first calculated | |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| Britain’s trade deficit in the months before the Brexit vote was narrower than first calculated after the government’s statistics agency uncovered a major mistake in monthly import and export data going back to 2015. | Britain’s trade deficit in the months before the Brexit vote was narrower than first calculated after the government’s statistics agency uncovered a major mistake in monthly import and export data going back to 2015. |
| The multi-billion pound errors mean the UK appears to have relied slightly less on the “kindness of strangers” in the run up to the referendum. | The multi-billion pound errors mean the UK appears to have relied slightly less on the “kindness of strangers” in the run up to the referendum. |
| Bank of England governor Mark Carney used the phrase to highlight how Britain, to balance its books, depends on foreign investors to bridge the shortfall in the balance of payments with the rest of the world. | Bank of England governor Mark Carney used the phrase to highlight how Britain, to balance its books, depends on foreign investors to bridge the shortfall in the balance of payments with the rest of the world. |
| After the Office for National Statistics revised down the gap to 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 7%, Britain no longer chalked up a record deficit in the final three months of 2015. The downward revision continued into 2016. | After the Office for National Statistics revised down the gap to 6% of gross domestic product (GDP) from 7%, Britain no longer chalked up a record deficit in the final three months of 2015. The downward revision continued into 2016. |
| Carney’s warning was widely seen as an intervention in the Brexit vote and revealed his concern that a no vote would worsen an already deteriorating situation. | Carney’s warning was widely seen as an intervention in the Brexit vote and revealed his concern that a no vote would worsen an already deteriorating situation. |
| But while the trade deficit was healthier than previously estimated before the referendum, the ONS found that a deteriorating picture emerged following the Brexit decision, with the figures in the three months to the end of September widening from an initial £11.1bn to a record £17bn. | But while the trade deficit was healthier than previously estimated before the referendum, the ONS found that a deteriorating picture emerged following the Brexit decision, with the figures in the three months to the end of September widening from an initial £11.1bn to a record £17bn. |
| Trade in goods and services is the largest component of a country’s current account balance. | Trade in goods and services is the largest component of a country’s current account balance. |
| “It’s a difficult area of the economy to measure, in fairness to the ONS, but these are big revisions and you get this unease in drawing firm conclusions on the external position of the UK,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw. | “It’s a difficult area of the economy to measure, in fairness to the ONS, but these are big revisions and you get this unease in drawing firm conclusions on the external position of the UK,” said Investec economist Philip Shaw. |
| The current account deficit for 2015, while cut from an earlier 5.4% of GDP, was still the largest on record at 5%. The gap for the second quarter of 2016 was revised down to 5.4% from 5.9%. | The current account deficit for 2015, while cut from an earlier 5.4% of GDP, was still the largest on record at 5%. The gap for the second quarter of 2016 was revised down to 5.4% from 5.9%. |
| Former BoE deputy governor Charles Bean said in a report earlier this year that many UK statistics were “deficient” and that the ONS needed to improve its capabilities. | Former BoE deputy governor Charles Bean said in a report earlier this year that many UK statistics were “deficient” and that the ONS needed to improve its capabilities. |
| The agency said revisions were due to a “processing error” in how it factored in trade in gold, part of a category known as erratics – which also includes precious gems and aircraft – that can sometimes distort monthly trade figures due to unpredictable flows. | The agency said revisions were due to a “processing error” in how it factored in trade in gold, part of a category known as erratics – which also includes precious gems and aircraft – that can sometimes distort monthly trade figures due to unpredictable flows. |
| “Because the ‘erratics’ series is volatile, a total trade series that excludes erratics may provide a better guide to the emerging trade picture,” the ONS said. | “Because the ‘erratics’ series is volatile, a total trade series that excludes erratics may provide a better guide to the emerging trade picture,” the ONS said. |