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| The 5 Easiest and 5 Most Difficult Promises for Donald Trump to Keep | The 5 Easiest and 5 Most Difficult Promises for Donald Trump to Keep |
| (about 3 hours later) | |
| WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump made many sweeping promises on his way to victory on Election Day. After he takes the oath of office on Jan. 20, here are five of the most difficult and five of the easiest promises to keep: | WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump made many sweeping promises on his way to victory on Election Day. After he takes the oath of office on Jan. 20, here are five of the most difficult and five of the easiest promises to keep: |
| Prevent American companies from moving jobs to other countries. | Prevent American companies from moving jobs to other countries. |
| Companies move to other countries to pursue higher profits, and Mr. Trump cannot force them to stay. The question is whether he can make it profitable to do so. It is difficult because labor is much cheaper in other countries. Carrier pays workers at its Indiana factory an average hourly wage of $23 — roughly four times what it plans to pay workers with the same jobs in Mexico. | Companies move to other countries to pursue higher profits, and Mr. Trump cannot force them to stay. The question is whether he can make it profitable to do so. It is difficult because labor is much cheaper in other countries. Carrier pays workers at its Indiana factory an average hourly wage of $23 — roughly four times what it plans to pay workers with the same jobs in Mexico. |
| Mr. Trump has promised tax cuts and regulatory relief, but those are minor expenses for most companies, particularly in comparison to their payrolls. Mr. Trump also has threatened to impose new taxes on imports, but he cannot target particular companies. Any such tariffs would have to be broad — and therefore broadly painful. | Mr. Trump has promised tax cuts and regulatory relief, but those are minor expenses for most companies, particularly in comparison to their payrolls. Mr. Trump also has threatened to impose new taxes on imports, but he cannot target particular companies. Any such tariffs would have to be broad — and therefore broadly painful. |
| ___ | ___ |
| Revive American steel-making and coal-mining industries. | Revive American steel-making and coal-mining industries. |
| The productivity of the American coal industry has increased roughly tenfold since the end of World War II. The work that once required 10 miners now requires just one. Steel making has undergone a similar transformation. That is by far the most important reason employment in both industries has declined precipitously. Most of those jobs are never coming back. | The productivity of the American coal industry has increased roughly tenfold since the end of World War II. The work that once required 10 miners now requires just one. Steel making has undergone a similar transformation. That is by far the most important reason employment in both industries has declined precipitously. Most of those jobs are never coming back. |
| Demand for coal has also declined thanks to a revolution in the production of natural gas and, to a lesser extent, other alternative energy sources. This, too, is a development that Mr. Trump lacks the power to reverse. | |
| ___ | ___ |
| Increase American economic growth to more than 4 percent a year. | Increase American economic growth to more than 4 percent a year. |
| There are only two ways to increase economic growth: Increase the number of workers, or increase productivity, the amount the average worker produces. The news is not good on either front. The growth of the American work force is slowing as baby boomers retire and families have fewer children. And Mr. Trump has promised new restrictions on immigration, limiting another source of workers. At the same time, productivity has increased over the last decade at an average annual pace of just 1.3 percent — and there is little evidence that faster growth is in the offing. | There are only two ways to increase economic growth: Increase the number of workers, or increase productivity, the amount the average worker produces. The news is not good on either front. The growth of the American work force is slowing as baby boomers retire and families have fewer children. And Mr. Trump has promised new restrictions on immigration, limiting another source of workers. At the same time, productivity has increased over the last decade at an average annual pace of just 1.3 percent — and there is little evidence that faster growth is in the offing. |
| The result is that annual economic growth has averaged 2.1 percent in the six full years since the last recession, and is on a similar trajectory this year. There are few obvious means for Mr. Trump to deliver on his promise. | The result is that annual economic growth has averaged 2.1 percent in the six full years since the last recession, and is on a similar trajectory this year. There are few obvious means for Mr. Trump to deliver on his promise. |
| ___ | ___ |
| Invest in infrastructure to create jobs. | Invest in infrastructure to create jobs. |
| Mr. Trump will find bipartisan support in Congress for his proposal to create jobs and stimulate the economy by building and repairing highways, bridges, water systems and other public works. But many Republicans may balk at a big spending program that adds to the federal budget deficit. | Mr. Trump will find bipartisan support in Congress for his proposal to create jobs and stimulate the economy by building and repairing highways, bridges, water systems and other public works. But many Republicans may balk at a big spending program that adds to the federal budget deficit. |
| Some Democrats will resist Mr. Trump’s proposal to offer tax breaks to private companies in return for infrastructure investments, notably because the federal government is able to borrow money at exceptionally low rates. Democrats are also likely to resist efforts to waive environmental rules or prevailing-wage protections for construction projects. | Some Democrats will resist Mr. Trump’s proposal to offer tax breaks to private companies in return for infrastructure investments, notably because the federal government is able to borrow money at exceptionally low rates. Democrats are also likely to resist efforts to waive environmental rules or prevailing-wage protections for construction projects. |
| ___ | ___ |
| Build a border wall. | Build a border wall. |
| Mr. Trump promised to “build a great, great wall on our southern border” and “have Mexico pay for that wall.” Fulfilling this promise would be difficult, though perhaps not impossible if Mr. Trump stretches the definition of “wall.” | Mr. Trump promised to “build a great, great wall on our southern border” and “have Mexico pay for that wall.” Fulfilling this promise would be difficult, though perhaps not impossible if Mr. Trump stretches the definition of “wall.” |
| Fences already exist along hundreds of miles of the border. Mexico has said it will not pay for a wall. And even if it did, Mr. Trump would probably need approval from Congress to spend money. Mr. Trump could do much to beef up border security on his own. Congress would support increased border security and the installation of more fencing, but construction of a wall would meet resistance from both parties. | Fences already exist along hundreds of miles of the border. Mexico has said it will not pay for a wall. And even if it did, Mr. Trump would probably need approval from Congress to spend money. Mr. Trump could do much to beef up border security on his own. Congress would support increased border security and the installation of more fencing, but construction of a wall would meet resistance from both parties. |
| ___ | ___ |
| Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. | Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. |
| Mr. Trump pledged that on his first day in office he would give notice that the United States intends to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement the Obama administration negotiated with other Pacific Rim nations that is awaiting ratification. | Mr. Trump pledged that on his first day in office he would give notice that the United States intends to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade agreement the Obama administration negotiated with other Pacific Rim nations that is awaiting ratification. |
| Though Mr. Trump has the authority to carry out this promise, other participants, including Japan and Australia, have expressed hope that he will reconsider. If not, they may pursue regional trade deals that exclude the United States. | Though Mr. Trump has the authority to carry out this promise, other participants, including Japan and Australia, have expressed hope that he will reconsider. If not, they may pursue regional trade deals that exclude the United States. |
| ___ | ___ |
| End the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. | End the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. |
| The program, which President Obama announced to protect undocumented immigrants who entered the country as minors, was created by presidential fiat and it can be ended just as easily. Mr. Trump has repeatedly promised to do so. He has not said whether he will deprive current participants of protection, or simply prevent new enrollments. | The program, which President Obama announced to protect undocumented immigrants who entered the country as minors, was created by presidential fiat and it can be ended just as easily. Mr. Trump has repeatedly promised to do so. He has not said whether he will deprive current participants of protection, or simply prevent new enrollments. |
| ___ | ___ |
| Allow the Keystone XL pipeline to move forward. | Allow the Keystone XL pipeline to move forward. |
| Pipelines that run between the United States and Canada must obtain presidential approval. In November 2015, President Obama refused to grant permission to the Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry oil from the tar sands of Canada to the southern edge of Nebraska, where it would connect to existing pipelines. | Pipelines that run between the United States and Canada must obtain presidential approval. In November 2015, President Obama refused to grant permission to the Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry oil from the tar sands of Canada to the southern edge of Nebraska, where it would connect to existing pipelines. |
| Mr. Trump has encouraged the company behind the project, TransCanada, to submit a new application once he takes office. He also has suggested, however, that TransCanada should share its profits with taxpayers. | Mr. Trump has encouraged the company behind the project, TransCanada, to submit a new application once he takes office. He also has suggested, however, that TransCanada should share its profits with taxpayers. |
| ___ | ___ |
| Nominate a Supreme Court justice. | Nominate a Supreme Court justice. |
| Mr. Trump says that in his first 100 days, he will begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from his list of 21 judges “who will uphold and defend the U.S. Constitution.” | Mr. Trump says that in his first 100 days, he will begin the process of selecting a replacement for Justice Scalia from his list of 21 judges “who will uphold and defend the U.S. Constitution.” |
| This promise will be easy to keep. Just winnowing the names of court candidates could qualify as beginning the process of replacing Justice Antonin Scalia, who died in February. | This promise will be easy to keep. Just winnowing the names of court candidates could qualify as beginning the process of replacing Justice Antonin Scalia, who died in February. |
| ___ | ___ |
| Reduce federal business and personal taxes. | Reduce federal business and personal taxes. |
| Mr. Trump has promised to reduce federal taxation of businesses and households. Congressional Republicans have expressed support for a broadly similar approach. The details have derailed past efforts to overhaul the tax code, but Republican control of both Congress and the White House increases the chances that Mr. Trump will succeed. | Mr. Trump has promised to reduce federal taxation of businesses and households. Congressional Republicans have expressed support for a broadly similar approach. The details have derailed past efforts to overhaul the tax code, but Republican control of both Congress and the White House increases the chances that Mr. Trump will succeed. |