Can Davis make it as a maverick?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/rss/-/1/hi/uk_politics/7452770.stm

Version 0 of 1.

Analysis By Iain Watson Political correspondent, BBC News

So you are shadow home secretary.

Tony Benn is one of Mr Davis's political heroes

Your party is way ahead in the polls - 15 to 20 points ahead, depending on who you believe.

You may very well become the real home secretary in a year or two.

Your party agrees with you that the government's policy of detaining terrorist suspects for up to 42 days must be opposed.

That policy has not even been implemented and is likely to face fierce opposition in the House of Lords.

You say you have no policy differences with your own party leader.

So you resign, forcing a by-election in which you stand again as the Conservative candidate in your former seat to fight against detention and the "surveillance state" - in other words, to advance the very position you were already espousing at Westminster and on the airwaves as shadow home secretary.

But - oops - your permanent replacement is announced with almost unseemly haste.

And it is very likely that if you win re-election you will be denied re-admittance to the shadow cabinet and, as a result, may find fewer platforms from which to deliver your views.

Yes - David Davis has certainly earned himself the dubious accolade of political maverick.

'Bonkers' decision

Perhaps it was always on the cards - he is after all an admirer of the granddaddy of all political mavericks Tony Benn. The two once appeared on stage together in an unlikely political double act.

In an age of cynicism about the bland, machine politics that some believe dominate at Westminster, the public increasingly loves a maverick

The reaction to his resignation at Westminster was a mixture of disdain and bafflement. Some saw it as disloyal, self-indulgent, even "bonkers".

But that is not how many members of the public appear to see it.

The majority of e-mails the BBC has received have been very supportive.

"Perhaps he thinks this point really is above party politics. I do. Shame more MPs don't vote with their consciences than simply follow the party line," one comment says.

"Principles in politics have been missing for a long time. It's good to see them return," says another.

He has his detractors in the virtual world, too, but fewer of them.

Public cynicism

Mr Davis says he has been flooded with messages of support and offers of financial help, even from Lib Dem and Labour activists.

He freely acknowledges the opinion polls are currently against him on 42 day detention - they show the public is in favour of locking up terror suspects for longer.

But he is convinced that, given the time and space to make the argument, he will win the public over.

Enoch Powell was the ultimate Tory maverick

It is impossible to say whether he is right - or whether mounting a highly personal war on the Westminster establishment is the best way to achieve his aims.

In an age of cynicism about the bland, machine politics that some believe dominate at Westminster, the public increasingly loves a maverick.

But the record of those that have defied the party machine and the political establishment in actually achieving their aims is mixed.

London mayor

Ken Livingstone triumphed as an independent in London in 2000 after being forced out by the Labour Party establishment.

He, at least, was standing not to be a backbench MP but for a position of real influence.

David Davis is likely to succeed in one respect - he will become one of the great characters in British politics

And he espoused apparently unpopular policies - most spectacularly London's congestion charge - and won round public opinion.

Mr Davis may hope to do the same on 42 day detention.

And of course Mr Livingstone's eventual Conservative replacement - Boris Johnson - was seen by many as something of a maverick himself.

Then there is George Galloway, who gave Tony Blair a bloody nose at the 2005 general election by winning Bethnal Green and Bow seat as a member of the fledgling Respect party, after being cast out by Labour.

He gained a platform for the causes he cared about - opposing what he saw as the illegal occupation of Iraq and the plight of the Palestinian people.

Great characters

But were they ultimately advanced by his election to Parliament?

British troops are still in Basra, and his old foe Mr Blair has been given a role in trying to broker Middle East peace.

At the opposite end of the political spectrum, Enoch Powell's resignation, and swift subsequent re-election in the South Down by-election in the mid 1980s - in opposition to the Anglo Irish Agreement - did not ultimately halt the move towards all Ireland institutions,

David Davis is likely to succeed in one respect - he will become one of the great characters in British politics.

Like his hero Tony Benn, he will be given a hearing by the media, even on the backbenches.

Unless of course the voters of Haltemprice and Howden turn their back on him, in favour of arguably an even bigger maverick - the former Sun editor Kelvin Mackenzie, who looks likely to be his only credible opponent.

In which case, Mr Davis will not have scored a victory for liberty at all but a terrible own goal - and paid the political penalty.