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| Strikes won’t fix the Southern rail crisis. Here are some fresh ideas for the unions | Strikes won’t fix the Southern rail crisis. Here are some fresh ideas for the unions |
| (6 days later) | |
| Back in the 1970s, Sir Charles Goodhart, then at the Bank of England, came up with the law which now bears his name, and which tends to be paraphrased: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” So, for instance, when rail company employees put their efforts into meeting a target – say, season ticket sales – they might just forget about their central purpose, to provide a good train service. | Back in the 1970s, Sir Charles Goodhart, then at the Bank of England, came up with the law which now bears his name, and which tends to be paraphrased: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” So, for instance, when rail company employees put their efforts into meeting a target – say, season ticket sales – they might just forget about their central purpose, to provide a good train service. |
| Goodhart’s law sheds light on the unfolding disaster that is Southern rail. Southern is a small part of the Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR) mega-franchise, and is 60% owned by the transport company Go-Ahead, and contracted so tightly by the Department of Transport that Southern rail itself has little room for innovation or imagination – precisely the reverse of what rail privatisation was supposed to deliver. In fact, it may just be a textbook case of Goodhart’s law. GTR’s contract ties Southern rail so completely into the will of the Department of Transport that it keeps just 3% of the takings. The only way of making a profit is to remove human employees from platforms (job half done) and from trains (job stalled). | Goodhart’s law sheds light on the unfolding disaster that is Southern rail. Southern is a small part of the Govia Thameslink Railway (GTR) mega-franchise, and is 60% owned by the transport company Go-Ahead, and contracted so tightly by the Department of Transport that Southern rail itself has little room for innovation or imagination – precisely the reverse of what rail privatisation was supposed to deliver. In fact, it may just be a textbook case of Goodhart’s law. GTR’s contract ties Southern rail so completely into the will of the Department of Transport that it keeps just 3% of the takings. The only way of making a profit is to remove human employees from platforms (job half done) and from trains (job stalled). |
| When the contract is dysfunctional – as it clearly is in this case – the main effort of the organisation shifts from meeting public or customer needs to meeting financial or other targets which seem only subtly different, but in practice amount to a huge shift in resources, and therefore a waste of public money. Southern rail is governed by earnings targets from its owners, and it keeps little of the ticket revenue, so of course its objective is to cut costs – and to meet the Whitehall demands on driver-only operation. | When the contract is dysfunctional – as it clearly is in this case – the main effort of the organisation shifts from meeting public or customer needs to meeting financial or other targets which seem only subtly different, but in practice amount to a huge shift in resources, and therefore a waste of public money. Southern rail is governed by earnings targets from its owners, and it keeps little of the ticket revenue, so of course its objective is to cut costs – and to meet the Whitehall demands on driver-only operation. |
| Because Goodhart’s law also applies to contracted service providers, it explains the misalignment between the interests of the Department of Transport, the GTR franchisees and the poor battered passengers who need the railway to work in order to make a living. | Because Goodhart’s law also applies to contracted service providers, it explains the misalignment between the interests of the Department of Transport, the GTR franchisees and the poor battered passengers who need the railway to work in order to make a living. |
| Goodhart explains something about why so many public services meet their targets but fail their customers. It also explains why GTR has made such a dog’s dinner of its relationship with its staff. Hence the current strike by drivers and guards who want to retain their dual responsibility for safety on the big train routes (on the small train routes, guards have already been lost). Hence the resulting misery, loss of earnings, divorces, air pollution, traffic and all the rest. And hence the effective removal of Sussex from the transport system. More than one-fifth of trains have been cancelled or severely delayed for much of the year since April, even without strikes. Without drivers, there are now, of course, no trains at all on the Southern network. | Goodhart explains something about why so many public services meet their targets but fail their customers. It also explains why GTR has made such a dog’s dinner of its relationship with its staff. Hence the current strike by drivers and guards who want to retain their dual responsibility for safety on the big train routes (on the small train routes, guards have already been lost). Hence the resulting misery, loss of earnings, divorces, air pollution, traffic and all the rest. And hence the effective removal of Sussex from the transport system. More than one-fifth of trains have been cancelled or severely delayed for much of the year since April, even without strikes. Without drivers, there are now, of course, no trains at all on the Southern network. |
| What Goodhart doesn’t really explain is why all three sides – the unions, ministers and managers – pretend that failing the customers, which they seem happy to allow in their various ways, is all the fault of the others. | What Goodhart doesn’t really explain is why all three sides – the unions, ministers and managers – pretend that failing the customers, which they seem happy to allow in their various ways, is all the fault of the others. |
| Nor why the transport secretary, Chris Grayling, has waded into the strike with such gusto with his embarrassing defence of GTR’s failings, pretending that the primary problem has been industrial action. | |
| So Grayling breathes a sigh of relief that his failure to hold GTR to account gets lost in the bluster, only matched by the glee with which the unions plunge in, aware that they have some public support (well, who wants a human-free railway? Not me!). At least, they have some support for now. | So Grayling breathes a sigh of relief that his failure to hold GTR to account gets lost in the bluster, only matched by the glee with which the unions plunge in, aware that they have some public support (well, who wants a human-free railway? Not me!). At least, they have some support for now. |
| In fact, you can’t help feeling there must be a better strategy for holding the government and managers to account than plunging us back into the strike days of the 1970s – and letting Grayling and GTR off the hook for their appalling service before the strike. | In fact, you can’t help feeling there must be a better strategy for holding the government and managers to account than plunging us back into the strike days of the 1970s – and letting Grayling and GTR off the hook for their appalling service before the strike. |
| When it comes to the tired old public versus private debate, this situation emphasises that neither direct Whitehall control (which has failed so badly with Southern) nor all-out privatisation has provided us with choice, competition or innovation. | When it comes to the tired old public versus private debate, this situation emphasises that neither direct Whitehall control (which has failed so badly with Southern) nor all-out privatisation has provided us with choice, competition or innovation. |
| So what should the union do instead? First, dodge the government’s strike trap, which lets Grayling avoid responsibility for the underlying failings of the franchise by pointing a finger at the workers. Second, learn from rail unions on the continent which leave the gates open instead of bashing passengers (the company don’t get the fares anyway). Third, use their campaigning power, which is not small, to reinvent train franchising so that the railways include a genuine diversity of operators. | So what should the union do instead? First, dodge the government’s strike trap, which lets Grayling avoid responsibility for the underlying failings of the franchise by pointing a finger at the workers. Second, learn from rail unions on the continent which leave the gates open instead of bashing passengers (the company don’t get the fares anyway). Third, use their campaigning power, which is not small, to reinvent train franchising so that the railways include a genuine diversity of operators. |
| That means making it possible for the failed Southern franchise to be taken over by a new cooperative provider owned by investors, passengers and workforce – which also controls the tracks and signals as the original Southern railway did between the wars. And while we are about it, we need to appoint an independent inquiry to wrestle the truth about the role of the Department of Transport, GTR and its owners Go-Ahead. That won’t be achieved by falling into their strike trap. | That means making it possible for the failed Southern franchise to be taken over by a new cooperative provider owned by investors, passengers and workforce – which also controls the tracks and signals as the original Southern railway did between the wars. And while we are about it, we need to appoint an independent inquiry to wrestle the truth about the role of the Department of Transport, GTR and its owners Go-Ahead. That won’t be achieved by falling into their strike trap. |