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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/dec/21/uk-public-finances-deficit-brexit-stock-markets-dow-business-live
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UK runs up £12.6bn deficit in November; Monte dei Paschi fundraising struggles – live | |
(35 minutes later) | |
4.24pm GMT | |
16:24 | |
Worries about European banks are undermining stock markets, particularly in Italy and Spain. Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: | |
Banking concerns have played across European markets once again today, as Monte dei Paschi looks set for a government takeover. The rescue plan has fallen apart, with Rome unable to find an anchor investor; for understandable reasons, no one wants to be first ‘over the top’ should the crisis worsen. | |
Italy’s debt will get bigger, but a major government stake should, paradoxically, boost risk appetite among investors, who will be glad to see the Italian government taking the tough decisions. | |
Meanwhile, Spanish banks are under pressure after the ECJ ruled they would have to pay back funds to mortgage borrowers. 2016 saw plenty of concerns about European banks, but while it made sense for everyone to buy Deutsche shares at €10, it will be harder to find investors willing to take stakes in southern European firms. Still, the overall tone on markets is only slightly negative, although the patient watch for Dow 20,000 goes on. | |
4.15pm GMT | |
16:15 | |
Here’s Reuters on the Monte dei Paschi situation: | |
Ailing Italian bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena has been unable to find an anchor investor willing to put money in its privately funded rescue plan, less than 24 hours before the offer ends, two sources close to the matter said on Wednesday. | |
The bank needs to raise 5 billion euros ($5.2 billion) by the end of this month to avert being wound down. The Italian government is expected to step in this week to bail it out. | |
The Tuscan lender, Italy’s third biggest bank and the world’s oldest, had pinned its hopes on Qatar’s sovereign wealth fund investing 1 billion euros in its cash call, but that option is no longer on the table, the sources said. | |
As a result, the bank entire share sale, which closes at 2 p.m. (1300 GMT) on Thursday, has drawn very little interest from the wider investment community, they added. | |
The bank declined to comment. | |
4.04pm GMT | |
16:04 | |
Ratings agency DBRS is keeping an eye on Italy: | |
DBRS SAYS NEXT 24 HOURS AND MONTE DEI PASCHI RESCUE DECISION WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR ITALY RATING | |
4.02pm GMT | |
16:02 | |
Monte de Paschi woes continue | |
Over in Italy, the rescue package for struggling bank Monte dei Paschi is looking in trouble, bringing the prospect of a state bailout closer: | |
MONTE DEI PASCHI SHARE PLACEMENT HAS DRAWN LITTLE INVESTOR INTEREST BECAUSE NO ANCHOR INVESTOR HAS BEEN FOUND - SOURCES - Reuters News | |
Which suggests that Qatar is unwilling to invest in the bank. But Italy could find out whether any bailout breaches EU rules, if taxpayers have to foot the bill but investors are left untouched. | |
Share placement for Banca Monte Paschi (BMPS IM) has received little interest with Qatar not willing to invest according to sources | |
A potential white knight fades away... https://t.co/iL33KQPWDf | |
Updated | |
at 4.09pm GMT | |
3.52pm GMT | 3.52pm GMT |
15:52 | 15:52 |
In the wake of its recent blog on Greece, the International Monetary Fund has responded to questions about its comments, mainly to do with tax and pensions. A tweet from the IMF’s spokesperson explains: | In the wake of its recent blog on Greece, the International Monetary Fund has responded to questions about its comments, mainly to do with tax and pensions. A tweet from the IMF’s spokesperson explains: |
We published additional technical clarifications about our analysis of Greece, following comments to this blog post https://t.co/3SebTtY8AY | We published additional technical clarifications about our analysis of Greece, following comments to this blog post https://t.co/3SebTtY8AY |
3.44pm GMT | 3.44pm GMT |
15:44 | 15:44 |
Oil prices have slipped slightly as the latest US figures show an unexpected rise in crude stocks. | Oil prices have slipped slightly as the latest US figures show an unexpected rise in crude stocks. |
West Texas Intermediate - the US benchmark - is 0.15% lower at $53.22 a barrel while Brent crude is down 0.38% to $55.14. | West Texas Intermediate - the US benchmark - is 0.15% lower at $53.22 a barrel while Brent crude is down 0.38% to $55.14. |
3.35pm GMT | 3.35pm GMT |
15:35 | 15:35 |
US oil stocks unexpectedly rise | US oil stocks unexpectedly rise |
US crude stocks have defied expectations with a hefty jump last week. | US crude stocks have defied expectations with a hefty jump last week. |
They rose by nearly 2.3m barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared to forecasts of a fall of around 2.5m barrels. | They rose by nearly 2.3m barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared to forecasts of a fall of around 2.5m barrels. |
#UnitedStates EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 2.256M https://t.co/iEqHb9iXvN pic.twitter.com/C9Y7bXUDlG | #UnitedStates EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change at 2.256M https://t.co/iEqHb9iXvN pic.twitter.com/C9Y7bXUDlG |
The figures go against Tuesday’s news from the American Petroleum Institute of a much larger than expected 4.1m decline in crude. | The figures go against Tuesday’s news from the American Petroleum Institute of a much larger than expected 4.1m decline in crude. |
DOE Crude Build 2.256MM. API wrong again | DOE Crude Build 2.256MM. API wrong again |
3.24pm GMT | 3.24pm GMT |
15:24 | 15:24 |
Analyst welcomed the improvement in European consumer confidence, but there was some caution over the future outlook. Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: | Analyst welcomed the improvement in European consumer confidence, but there was some caution over the future outlook. Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: |
European consumers appear to have shrugged off concerns including Brexit, the Italian banking crisis and the upcoming inauguration of President Trump to post the year’s strongest confidence figures for December, albeit still firmly in negative territory. | European consumers appear to have shrugged off concerns including Brexit, the Italian banking crisis and the upcoming inauguration of President Trump to post the year’s strongest confidence figures for December, albeit still firmly in negative territory. |
While today’s data will encourage ECB chief Mario Draghi, the Christmas cheer may not last long, especially if markets start to waver as Brexit negotiations begin in earnest next year. | While today’s data will encourage ECB chief Mario Draghi, the Christmas cheer may not last long, especially if markets start to waver as Brexit negotiations begin in earnest next year. |
Draghi must be congratulated for steering Europe’s economy through choppy waters during what has been a particularly testing 12 months. But now the real challenge begins: delivering substantive growth in 2017. | Draghi must be congratulated for steering Europe’s economy through choppy waters during what has been a particularly testing 12 months. But now the real challenge begins: delivering substantive growth in 2017. |
Economist Howard Archer at IHS Markit said: | Economist Howard Archer at IHS Markit said: |
An encouraging boost to Eurozone growth prospects as consumer confidence rose for a fourth month running in December to reach a 20-month high. Furthermore, consumer confidence is now at a very decent level compared to long-term norms. Consumers across the Eurozone are currently benefiting from pretty decent fundamentals overall, notably including higher employment and still limited inflation. | An encouraging boost to Eurozone growth prospects as consumer confidence rose for a fourth month running in December to reach a 20-month high. Furthermore, consumer confidence is now at a very decent level compared to long-term norms. Consumers across the Eurozone are currently benefiting from pretty decent fundamentals overall, notably including higher employment and still limited inflation. |
This reinforces hopes that the Eurozone will have seen some pick-up in GDP growth in the fourth quarter and is set to see a decent start to 2017... | This reinforces hopes that the Eurozone will have seen some pick-up in GDP growth in the fourth quarter and is set to see a decent start to 2017... |
While there are no details available, it seems reasonable suspect that the marked rise in Eurozone consumer confidence in December was due to improved perceptions on the economic situation and outlook. It is also likely that job concerns eased further across the Eurozone after a marked dip in November (following increased worries during August-October). Significantly, latest data showed that Eurozone unemployment dropped at an increased rate in October and September after labour markets had shown signs of losing momentum over the summer. | While there are no details available, it seems reasonable suspect that the marked rise in Eurozone consumer confidence in December was due to improved perceptions on the economic situation and outlook. It is also likely that job concerns eased further across the Eurozone after a marked dip in November (following increased worries during August-October). Significantly, latest data showed that Eurozone unemployment dropped at an increased rate in October and September after labour markets had shown signs of losing momentum over the summer. |
Any improvement in Eurozone consumer confidence – particularly a decent increase – is to be welcomed as the consumer clearly is vital to Eurozone growth prospects... | Any improvement in Eurozone consumer confidence – particularly a decent increase – is to be welcomed as the consumer clearly is vital to Eurozone growth prospects... |
However, there is the danger that an increasingly uncertain political and economic environment could cause companies to become more cautious over employment during 2017. | However, there is the danger that an increasingly uncertain political and economic environment could cause companies to become more cautious over employment during 2017. |
Furthermore, consumer confidence in the Eurozone could very well be pressurised by increasing political uncertainty over the coming months, especially given that the UK’s Brexit vote in June and November’s election of Donald Trump as US President fuels concern over potential political shocks in the Eurozone. General elections are due 2017 in the Netherlands (in March), France (in April/May) and Germany (around September), and may also well occur in Italy after the December referendum defeat on constitutional reform. | Furthermore, consumer confidence in the Eurozone could very well be pressurised by increasing political uncertainty over the coming months, especially given that the UK’s Brexit vote in June and November’s election of Donald Trump as US President fuels concern over potential political shocks in the Eurozone. General elections are due 2017 in the Netherlands (in March), France (in April/May) and Germany (around September), and may also well occur in Italy after the December referendum defeat on constitutional reform. |
3.13pm GMT | 3.13pm GMT |
15:13 | 15:13 |
Eurozone consumer confidence rises to 20 month high | Eurozone consumer confidence rises to 20 month high |
Eurozone consumer confidence has improved so far in December. | Eurozone consumer confidence has improved so far in December. |
The provisional reading for the month from the European Commission shows a rise of 1.1 points to -5.1, compared to expectations of a figure of -6. The Commission said: | The provisional reading for the month from the European Commission shows a rise of 1.1 points to -5.1, compared to expectations of a figure of -6. The Commission said: |
In December 2016, the...flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator increased markedly in both the euro area (by 1.1 points to -5.1) and the EU (by 1.2 points to -4.6) compared to November. | In December 2016, the...flash estimate of the consumer confidence indicator increased markedly in both the euro area (by 1.1 points to -5.1) and the EU (by 1.2 points to -4.6) compared to November. |
Updated | Updated |
at 3.39pm GMT | at 3.39pm GMT |
3.10pm GMT | 3.10pm GMT |
15:10 | 15:10 |
On the home sales, Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist, said the last three months had been outstanding for the housing market. He said: | On the home sales, Lawrence Yun, the association’s chief economist, said the last three months had been outstanding for the housing market. He said: |
The healthiest job market since the Great Recession and the anticipation of some buyers to close on a home before mortgage rates accurately rose from their historically low level have combined to drive sales higher in recent months. Furthermore, it’s no coincidence that home shoppers in the Northeast — where price growth has been tame all year — had the most success last month. | The healthiest job market since the Great Recession and the anticipation of some buyers to close on a home before mortgage rates accurately rose from their historically low level have combined to drive sales higher in recent months. Furthermore, it’s no coincidence that home shoppers in the Northeast — where price growth has been tame all year — had the most success last month. |
Existing housing supply at the beginning of the year was inadequate and is now even worse heading into 2017. Rental units are also seeing this shortage. As a result, both home prices and rents continue to far outstrip incomes in much of the country. | Existing housing supply at the beginning of the year was inadequate and is now even worse heading into 2017. Rental units are also seeing this shortage. As a result, both home prices and rents continue to far outstrip incomes in much of the country. |
3.05pm GMT | 3.05pm GMT |
15:05 | 15:05 |
US home sales at near 10 year high | US home sales at near 10 year high |
US existing home sales unexpectedly jumped in November, hitting their highest level in nearly ten years. | US existing home sales unexpectedly jumped in November, hitting their highest level in nearly ten years. |
Sales rose 0.7% to an annualised 5.61m units, the best since February 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors. Analysts had been expecting a fall from October’s figure of 5.57m units - itself revised down from 5.6m - to 5.5m. | Sales rose 0.7% to an annualised 5.61m units, the best since February 2007, according to the National Association of Realtors. Analysts had been expecting a fall from October’s figure of 5.57m units - itself revised down from 5.6m - to 5.5m. |
Updated | Updated |
at 3.08pm GMT | at 3.08pm GMT |
2.51pm GMT | 2.51pm GMT |
14:51 | 14:51 |
Well that didn’t last. The Dow is now down 14 points as investors shy away from pushing it above 20,000. For the moment at least. | Well that didn’t last. The Dow is now down 14 points as investors shy away from pushing it above 20,000. For the moment at least. |
2.36pm GMT | 2.36pm GMT |
14:36 | 14:36 |
Dow edges closer to 20,000 as Wall Street opens | Dow edges closer to 20,000 as Wall Street opens |
After an initial dip, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly higher, edging ever nearer to the 20,000 barrier. But the trend is not exactly certain in early trading. | After an initial dip, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is slightly higher, edging ever nearer to the 20,000 barrier. But the trend is not exactly certain in early trading. |
The Dow is currently at 19,982, up 8 points. Elsewhere the S&P 500 opened down just 1.55 points while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.05%. | The Dow is currently at 19,982, up 8 points. Elsewhere the S&P 500 opened down just 1.55 points while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.05%. |
Updated | Updated |
at 2.36pm GMT | at 2.36pm GMT |