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NHS hospitals facing toughest winter yet, say health experts NHS hospitals facing toughest winter yet, say health experts
(about 2 hours later)
Record numbers of patients are leaving A&E units without being treated, new figures reveal, sparking fears that the NHS is “on the eve of a winter crisis” and cannot cope with soaring demand. Record numbers of patients are leaving A&E units without being treated, new figures reveal, sparking fears that the NHS is on the brink of a winter crisis and cannot cope with soaring demand.
In all, 53,000 people left an emergency department in England in September before receiving treatment, 24% more than the 42,461 who did so in September 2015. Data released by NHS Digital on Wednesday did not include patients’ reasons for leaving, but many are likely to have done so because they felt they had waited too long to be seen. The figures for September show 53,000 people left an emergency department in England before receiving treatment, up 24% compared with September 2015.
The data released by NHS Digital does not include patients’ reasons for leaving, but many are likely to have done so because they felt they had waited too long to be seen.
“Our NHS is facing a massive crisis and most politicians seem happy to look the other way. The strain of overcrowded A&E units and a creaking social care system means the government are failing millions of sick and vulnerable people,” said Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader.“Our NHS is facing a massive crisis and most politicians seem happy to look the other way. The strain of overcrowded A&E units and a creaking social care system means the government are failing millions of sick and vulnerable people,” said Tim Farron, the Liberal Democrat leader.
Questions are also being raised about the quality of care A&Es provide because the number of patients who have to come back for further treatment within a week of their first visit is also increasing quickly. Experts warn that trend may indicate A&E staff are struggling to provide the highest standard of care because they are now too busy too much of the time. Questions are also being asked about the quality of care that A&Es provide because the number of patients who have to come back for further treatment within a week of their first visit is increasing quickly. Experts say the trend may indicate A&E staff are struggling to provide the highest standard of care because they are now too busy too much of the time.
In September 137,164 patients (8.1% of all 1.68m attendances that month) came back to an A&E in an unplanned way within seven days of their first attendance, 14% more than the 119,856 (7.6%) who did so in the same month a year earlier. In September, 137,164 patients (8.1% of all 1.68 million attendances that month) came back to an A&E in an unplanned way within seven days of their first attendance, compared with 119,856 (7.6%) in the same month a year earlier.
Professor John Appleby, chief economist and director of research at the Nuffield Trust health thinktank, said: “There is no doubt that this winter will be exceptionally tough across the NHS. A&E targets have been missed for months, record numbers of patients are waiting on trolleys to be admitted to hospital and, as today’s figures show, there is a worrying rise in people going back to A&E units within seven days, raising questions about whether they’d had the right treatment or advice. Prof John Appleby, chief economist and director of research at the Nuffield Trust health thinktank, said: “There is no doubt that this winter will be exceptionally tough across the NHS. A&E targets have been missed for months, record numbers of patients are waiting on trolleys to be admitted to hospital and, as today’s figures show, there is a worrying rise in people going back to A&E units within seven days, raising questions about whether they’d had the right treatment or advice.
“These figures paint a picture of an NHS under severe pressure, which will put staff under great strain over the winter period and could put patients at risk. “These figures paint a picture of an NHS under severe pressure, which will put staff under great strain over the winter period and could put patients at risk. The NHS has managed in previous years by opening extra beds, deploying more staff and reducing the numbers of non-urgent operations. We expect to see the same this year, but the question for this winter is whether there will be enough slack in the system to deal with a sudden outbreak of flu or norovirus.”
“The NHS has managed in previous years by opening extra beds, deploying more staff and reducing the numbers of non-urgent operations. We expect to see the same this year, but the question for this winter is whether there will be enough slack in the system to deal with a sudden outbreak of flu or norovirus.” The NHS Digital figures also show that the time it takes for a patient to start treatment in A&E has risen in the last year, from 55 to 59 minutes – a 7% increase. In September last year, 95% of all A&E cases left the unit within 5hrs 53mins of arriving; this September 95% left within 6hrs 30mins.
NHS Digital’s latest figures also show that the time it takes for a patient to start treatment in A&E has gone from 55 to 59 minutes in the last year – a 7% rise. In addition, while last year 95% of all A&E cases left the unit within 5hrs 53mins of arriving, this September it took 6hrs 30mins for emergency departments to reach that 95%. Last week NHS Improvement, the health service’s financial regulator, ordered hospitals not to carry out non-urgent surgery over Christmas so that beds were left free to help deal with a potential influx of patients. Jim Mackey, the agency’s chief executive, told hospital bosses that the NHS was facing a “critical” time.
NHS Improvement, the health service’s financial regulator, last week ordered hospitals not to carry out non-urgent surgery over Christmas so that beds are left free to help deal with a potential influx of patients. Jim Mackey, the agency’s chief executive, told hospital bosses that the NHS is facing a “critical” time. A separate study suggests the NHS is on track to have its most difficult winter ever. A total of 785,883 patients could end up waiting more than the supposed maximum 4hrs for A&E care in the December to February months, far more than the 613,971 who did so in those three months in 2015-16.
Meanwhile, separate new findings show that the NHS is on track to have its most difficult winter ever. The projection is based on a 28% year-on-year rise in such delays seen each year between 2010-11 and 2015-16, according to Incisive Health, a specialist health communications and policy firm.
A total of 785,883 patients could end up waiting more than the supposed maximum 4hrs for A&E care in the December to February winter months, far more than the 613,971 who did so in those three months in 2015-16. Similarly, trends over the last six years suggest A&Es in England may have to treat as many as 5.76 million patients over the winter period, up from 5.65 million last winter.
That projection is based on the 28% year-on-year rise in such delays seen every year between 2010-11 and 2015-16, according to Incisive Health, a specialist health communications and policy firm.
Similarly, trends over the last six years suggest that A&Es in England may have to treat as many as 5.76m patients over the winter period, up from 5.65m last winter.
This winter is also likely to see more people than ever before – an estimated 185,715 – forced to wait more than 4hrs before being admitted to hospital as an emergency, they say.
“The NHS has got used to difficult winters but this looks likely to be the toughest yet,” said Sarah Winstone, one of Incisive Health’s founding partners.“The NHS has got used to difficult winters but this looks likely to be the toughest yet,” said Sarah Winstone, one of Incisive Health’s founding partners.
The Department of Health did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.The Department of Health did not respond to a request for comment by the time of publication.