This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/22/opinion/one-problem-for-democratic-leaders-is-democratic-voters.html

The article has changed 2 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
One Problem for Democratic Leaders Is Democratic Voters One Problem for Democratic Leaders Is Democratic Voters
(about 11 hours later)
Leaders on the Democratic left who want to represent the have-nots face an obstacle: their own voters.Leaders on the Democratic left who want to represent the have-nots face an obstacle: their own voters.
Keith Ellison, a congressman from Minnesota and a candidate for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee, argues that Democrats “have to stand for a strong, populist economic message.” He warns that “the way the working class is always controlled is that it’s divided.”Keith Ellison, a congressman from Minnesota and a candidate for the chairmanship of the Democratic National Committee, argues that Democrats “have to stand for a strong, populist economic message.” He warns that “the way the working class is always controlled is that it’s divided.”
A key Ellison supporter in the fight for the chairmanship, Senator Bernie Sanders, believes thatA key Ellison supporter in the fight for the chairmanship, Senator Bernie Sanders, believes that
For a certain stripe of liberal Democrat, free trade agreements have become emblematic of what Sanders describes asFor a certain stripe of liberal Democrat, free trade agreements have become emblematic of what Sanders describes as
The problem facing Ellison, Sanders and their allies is that despite the success of Sanders’s presidential campaign, the Democratic electorate has actually become less receptive to populism over the past two decades.The problem facing Ellison, Sanders and their allies is that despite the success of Sanders’s presidential campaign, the Democratic electorate has actually become less receptive to populism over the past two decades.
Mark Muro, the director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, analyzed the differences between those communities that supported Hillary Clinton and those that backed Donald Trump. The findings of Muro and Sifan Liu, a Brookings research assistant, suggest that Democrats who are calling for a return to progressive populism will encounter more hurdles than they expect.Mark Muro, the director of the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, analyzed the differences between those communities that supported Hillary Clinton and those that backed Donald Trump. The findings of Muro and Sifan Liu, a Brookings research assistant, suggest that Democrats who are calling for a return to progressive populism will encounter more hurdles than they expect.
In their Nov. 29 essay, “Another Clinton-Trump divide: High-output America vs low-output America,” Muro and Liu determined that:In their Nov. 29 essay, “Another Clinton-Trump divide: High-output America vs low-output America,” Muro and Liu determined that:
In other words, the Clinton counties are the ones in which the economy is booming; they are hardly fertile territory for a worker insurrection.In other words, the Clinton counties are the ones in which the economy is booming; they are hardly fertile territory for a worker insurrection.
Muro enlarged on his findings in an email:Muro enlarged on his findings in an email:
In a separate February 2015 study, “America’s Advanced Industries,” Muro and four colleagues report that the 50 industries in this heavily high-tech sector are crucial to America’s future growth:In a separate February 2015 study, “America’s Advanced Industries,” Muro and four colleagues report that the 50 industries in this heavily high-tech sector are crucial to America’s future growth:
The importance of these industries does not stop there:The importance of these industries does not stop there:
When Ellison announced his opposition to the trans-Pacific Partnership on Feb. 15, 2015, he was not speaking to communities that benefit from technology-intensive industries. Ellison declared:When Ellison announced his opposition to the trans-Pacific Partnership on Feb. 15, 2015, he was not speaking to communities that benefit from technology-intensive industries. Ellison declared:
Ellison’s argument rings especially true in those counties Clinton lost, but in the counties where she and other Democrats won strongly, free trade has been enormously beneficial.Ellison’s argument rings especially true in those counties Clinton lost, but in the counties where she and other Democrats won strongly, free trade has been enormously beneficial.
Take two examples. In Santa Clara County, California, voters chose Clinton over Trump 73-21. Advanced industry companies with headquarters or major facilities there include Adobe, Apple, Cisco, HP Inc. and Intel Corp. On the East Coast, in Cambridge, Mass., where Clinton won 87.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 6.4 percent, major corporate employers include Google, Microsoft, and Biogen.Take two examples. In Santa Clara County, California, voters chose Clinton over Trump 73-21. Advanced industry companies with headquarters or major facilities there include Adobe, Apple, Cisco, HP Inc. and Intel Corp. On the East Coast, in Cambridge, Mass., where Clinton won 87.8 percent of the vote to Trump’s 6.4 percent, major corporate employers include Google, Microsoft, and Biogen.
According to the Muro study, “advanced industries produce $2.7 trillion in value added annually — 17 percent of all U.S. gross domestic product. That is more than any other sector, including health care, finance, or real estate,” and, directly and indirectly, “the sector supports almost 39 million jobs — nearly one-fourth of all U.S. employment.”According to the Muro study, “advanced industries produce $2.7 trillion in value added annually — 17 percent of all U.S. gross domestic product. That is more than any other sector, including health care, finance, or real estate,” and, directly and indirectly, “the sector supports almost 39 million jobs — nearly one-fourth of all U.S. employment.”
In other words, as Muro made clear in his email:In other words, as Muro made clear in his email:
Muro has produced a map thatMuro has produced a map that
Not only is expanded trade in the economic interest of economically powerful metropolitan areas that vote Democratic, but Democratic voters themselves are becoming increasingly pro-trade. Here’s the trend data from 2009 to late October 2016, collected by Pew.Not only is expanded trade in the economic interest of economically powerful metropolitan areas that vote Democratic, but Democratic voters themselves are becoming increasingly pro-trade. Here’s the trend data from 2009 to late October 2016, collected by Pew.
From 2009 to October 2016, Democratic voters have shifted from a lukewarm pro-trade stance, 48-37, 11 points in favor, to a decisively pro-trade position, 56-31. The Democratic electorate is moving in a pro-trade direction, in opposition to Ellison and Sanders.From 2009 to October 2016, Democratic voters have shifted from a lukewarm pro-trade stance, 48-37, 11 points in favor, to a decisively pro-trade position, 56-31. The Democratic electorate is moving in a pro-trade direction, in opposition to Ellison and Sanders.
Conversely, the Republican electorate, egged on by Donald Trump, has flipped. As recently as March 2014, before anyone gave a thought to a Trump presidential bid, Pew found that Republican voters were solidly in the free trade camp, 55-36. By October 2016, Republican voters had become decisively anti-trade, 68-24.Conversely, the Republican electorate, egged on by Donald Trump, has flipped. As recently as March 2014, before anyone gave a thought to a Trump presidential bid, Pew found that Republican voters were solidly in the free trade camp, 55-36. By October 2016, Republican voters had become decisively anti-trade, 68-24.
Even though Hillary Clinton pointedly withdrew her support for the trans-Pacific Partnership in October 2015, 55 percent of her voters, according to Pew, described the TPP as a “good thing” compared to 24 percent who said it was a “bad thing.” In contrast, Pew reported that 58 percent of Trump loyalists said the TPP was a bad thing, and 17 percent looked on it favorably.Even though Hillary Clinton pointedly withdrew her support for the trans-Pacific Partnership in October 2015, 55 percent of her voters, according to Pew, described the TPP as a “good thing” compared to 24 percent who said it was a “bad thing.” In contrast, Pew reported that 58 percent of Trump loyalists said the TPP was a bad thing, and 17 percent looked on it favorably.
If anything, Trump’s adamant opposition to free trade agreements and his call for the adoption of protectionist tax and tariff policies, are likely to push Democratic voters who oppose Trump to shift even further in favor of trade.If anything, Trump’s adamant opposition to free trade agreements and his call for the adoption of protectionist tax and tariff policies, are likely to push Democratic voters who oppose Trump to shift even further in favor of trade.
This push-me, pull-you phenomenon can be seen in at least two other areas — in attitudes toward the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and toward Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks.This push-me, pull-you phenomenon can be seen in at least two other areas — in attitudes toward the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and toward Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks.
Before the 2016 campaign began, Republican voters were far more critical of both Putin and WikiLeaks than Democrats, in part because of the stronger tradition on the right of anti-communism and hostility to government leaks.Before the 2016 campaign began, Republican voters were far more critical of both Putin and WikiLeaks than Democrats, in part because of the stronger tradition on the right of anti-communism and hostility to government leaks.
William Jordan, U.S. Elections Editor at YouGov, put together the accompanying graphic, which shows Putin’s net negative ratings (unfavorable views subtracted from favorable). William Jordan, United States Elections Editor at YouGov, compiled the data in the accompanying graphic, which shows that an increasing share of Republicans have a positive view of Putin.
Among Republicans, over the course of Trump’s candidacy, assessments of Putin steadily improved. In December 2014, two years ago, 80 percent of Republican voters viewed Putin unfavorably and 8 percent were favorable. By December 2016, Putin’s unfavorable ratings among Republicans had fallen to 47 percent and his favorable ratings had risen to 37 percent. This is the period during which Putin was accused of allowing Russian hacking of Democratic Party emails, the public release of which proved damaging to the Clinton campaign.Among Republicans, over the course of Trump’s candidacy, assessments of Putin steadily improved. In December 2014, two years ago, 80 percent of Republican voters viewed Putin unfavorably and 8 percent were favorable. By December 2016, Putin’s unfavorable ratings among Republicans had fallen to 47 percent and his favorable ratings had risen to 37 percent. This is the period during which Putin was accused of allowing Russian hacking of Democratic Party emails, the public release of which proved damaging to the Clinton campaign.
Among Democrats during this same period, Putin’s negative ratings worsened, from minus 52 to minus 62.Among Democrats during this same period, Putin’s negative ratings worsened, from minus 52 to minus 62.
An even more dramatic shift can be seen in the case of WikiLeaks, the conduit for the release of the hacked Democratic Party emails.An even more dramatic shift can be seen in the case of WikiLeaks, the conduit for the release of the hacked Democratic Party emails.
In June 2013, well before the campaign, when WikiLeaks was best known for publishing secret government documents, Republicans were adamantly critical by negative 47 points. By August 2016, when the damage by WikiLeaks to the Clinton became apparent, Republicans had turned favorable, by 9 points; by December, Republicans were solidly positive in favor of WikiLeaks, by 27 points. This is a 74-point shift in just under three and a half years.In June 2013, well before the campaign, when WikiLeaks was best known for publishing secret government documents, Republicans were adamantly critical by negative 47 points. By August 2016, when the damage by WikiLeaks to the Clinton became apparent, Republicans had turned favorable, by 9 points; by December, Republicans were solidly positive in favor of WikiLeaks, by 27 points. This is a 74-point shift in just under three and a half years.
Democrats once more moved in the opposite direction, with their disapproval of WikiLeaks moving from negative 3 points in 2013 to negative 28 points this month.Democrats once more moved in the opposite direction, with their disapproval of WikiLeaks moving from negative 3 points in 2013 to negative 28 points this month.
Looking again at free trade, the problem for Democrats struggling to find common ground on the issue is that, as Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, observed in an email,Looking again at free trade, the problem for Democrats struggling to find common ground on the issue is that, as Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego, observed in an email,
In effect, even though a majority of Democrats may support free trade, the minority has, in many cases, suffered from the uneven distributional impact — shuttered local factories and jobs shipped overseas. Those harmed by a policy are much more likely to vote on the issue than those helped.In effect, even though a majority of Democrats may support free trade, the minority has, in many cases, suffered from the uneven distributional impact — shuttered local factories and jobs shipped overseas. Those harmed by a policy are much more likely to vote on the issue than those helped.
Although Trump’s protectionist proposals to deal with trade and outsourcing could prove disastrous to economic growth over time, he has offered the business community carrots (tax breaks and contracts) and sticks (tariffs and tax penalties) that have for the moment stifled industry opposition and allowed Trump to win over millions of voters.Although Trump’s protectionist proposals to deal with trade and outsourcing could prove disastrous to economic growth over time, he has offered the business community carrots (tax breaks and contracts) and sticks (tariffs and tax penalties) that have for the moment stifled industry opposition and allowed Trump to win over millions of voters.
Democrats addressing trade and globalization concerns face not only a base sharply split over these issues, but also growing difficulties in the party’s traditional responses to employment dislocation. Both job training and education have become increasingly ineffective.Democrats addressing trade and globalization concerns face not only a base sharply split over these issues, but also growing difficulties in the party’s traditional responses to employment dislocation. Both job training and education have become increasingly ineffective.
An August 2016 study by Robert G. Valletta, an economist at the Federal Reserve in San Francisco, “Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium,” shows that since 2010 the steadily rising economic gains from completing college and, even more so, from a graduate degree, have leveled off.An August 2016 study by Robert G. Valletta, an economist at the Federal Reserve in San Francisco, “Recent Flattening in the Higher Education Wage Premium,” shows that since 2010 the steadily rising economic gains from completing college and, even more so, from a graduate degree, have leveled off.
The swelling number of workers with postsecondary education combined with the worldwide economic slowdown have resulted in a process economists call “skill downsizing.” Those with graduate degrees are forced to take jobs that a college graduate could do, college graduates are forced to take jobs that someone with less education could do, and so on down the line, leaving fewer and fewer good jobs for the newly trained or retrained.The swelling number of workers with postsecondary education combined with the worldwide economic slowdown have resulted in a process economists call “skill downsizing.” Those with graduate degrees are forced to take jobs that a college graduate could do, college graduates are forced to take jobs that someone with less education could do, and so on down the line, leaving fewer and fewer good jobs for the newly trained or retrained.
What would a progressive approach to globalization look like? A call for a radical reform of the trade negotiation process to curb the leverage of corporate and special interests is one Democratic alternative.What would a progressive approach to globalization look like? A call for a radical reform of the trade negotiation process to curb the leverage of corporate and special interests is one Democratic alternative.
This leverage has been institutionalized through the creation of Industry Trade Advisory Committees that grant special access to trade negotiations to corporations ranging from pharmaceuticals to aerospace, energy to investment banks, steel to textiles.This leverage has been institutionalized through the creation of Industry Trade Advisory Committees that grant special access to trade negotiations to corporations ranging from pharmaceuticals to aerospace, energy to investment banks, steel to textiles.
Two critics of current trade policy, Jared Bernstein, a former economics adviser to Vice President Biden, and Lori Wallach, the director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, wrote a September 2016 essay for the American Prospect, “The New Rules of the Road: A Progressive Approach to Globalization” in which they acknowledge some basic facts:Two critics of current trade policy, Jared Bernstein, a former economics adviser to Vice President Biden, and Lori Wallach, the director of Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, wrote a September 2016 essay for the American Prospect, “The New Rules of the Road: A Progressive Approach to Globalization” in which they acknowledge some basic facts:
Bernstein and Wallach go on to point out that trade agreementsBernstein and Wallach go on to point out that trade agreements
The problem is not with trade itself, which the authors recognize is both desirable and inevitable, but lies instead in the design of the negotiation process:The problem is not with trade itself, which the authors recognize is both desirable and inevitable, but lies instead in the design of the negotiation process:
Bernstein and Wallach make a potentially constructive attempt to deal with one aspect of the Democratic Party’s key dilemma: the struggle to prevail in national elections while accommodating the conflicting interests of diverse constituencies — including the conflict between the Sanders-Warren-Ellison wing and the free-trade wing.Bernstein and Wallach make a potentially constructive attempt to deal with one aspect of the Democratic Party’s key dilemma: the struggle to prevail in national elections while accommodating the conflicting interests of diverse constituencies — including the conflict between the Sanders-Warren-Ellison wing and the free-trade wing.
Conciliation along these lines has become more difficult as international competition crosses national boundaries, indifferent to domestic regulation and legislation. The 2016 election demonstrates beyond a shadow of a doubt that ducking and weaving around the anguish of displaced workers guarantees sustained minority status.Conciliation along these lines has become more difficult as international competition crosses national boundaries, indifferent to domestic regulation and legislation. The 2016 election demonstrates beyond a shadow of a doubt that ducking and weaving around the anguish of displaced workers guarantees sustained minority status.
The nation’s displaced work force includes not only the white working class but millions of Hispanics and African-Americans who are loyal to the Democratic Party. Effective and muscular policies focused on reversing the devastation that globalized trade, automation and competition with foreign workers have inflicted on middle and lower income Americans are essential to encourage defecting whites to return to Democratic ranks — and they are also crucial for reviving Election Day enthusiasm among the nation’s growing population of minority voters. In this regard, the political desires of the two groups are not irreconcilable.The nation’s displaced work force includes not only the white working class but millions of Hispanics and African-Americans who are loyal to the Democratic Party. Effective and muscular policies focused on reversing the devastation that globalized trade, automation and competition with foreign workers have inflicted on middle and lower income Americans are essential to encourage defecting whites to return to Democratic ranks — and they are also crucial for reviving Election Day enthusiasm among the nation’s growing population of minority voters. In this regard, the political desires of the two groups are not irreconcilable.