'The UK is at high risk of a terror attack – but how has it avoided one so far? The UK is at high risk of a terror attack – but how has it avoided one so far?' diff viewer (3/4)

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~~The UK is at high risk of a terror attack – but how has it avoided one so far?~~	The UK is at high risk of a terror attack – but how has it avoided one so far? The UK is at high risk of a terror attack – but how has it avoided one so far?
2016-12-22 21:40:08 UTC	2016-12-22 22:15:09 UTC (35 minutes later)
London or any other part of the UK presents an obvious target for Islamic terrorists, more so than Germany given the UK’s high-profile involvement as the closest military ally of the US.	London or any other part of the UK presents an obvious target for Islamic terrorists, more so than Germany given the UK’s high-profile involvement as the closest military ally of the US.
UK intelligence agencies repeatedly warn that it is just a matter of time before a British target is hit. In a rare speech earlier this month, Alex Younger, the head of the UK’s overseas intelligence agency MI6, described the threat posed by groups such as Islamic State or its sympathisers as “unprecedented”.	UK intelligence agencies repeatedly warn that it is just a matter of time before a British target is hit. In a rare speech earlier this month, Alex Younger, the head of the UK’s overseas intelligence agency MI6, described the threat posed by groups such as Islamic State or its sympathisers as “unprecedented”.
One of the most alarming warnings came last year from Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British army officer and chemical weapons expert, who raised the risk of Isis mounting a chlorine attack in the London Underground, similar to the sarin attack on the Tokyo subway in 1995.	One of the most alarming warnings came last year from Hamish de Bretton-Gordon, a former British army officer and chemical weapons expert, who raised the risk of Isis mounting a chlorine attack in the London Underground, similar to the sarin attack on the Tokyo subway in 1995.
In spite of such warnings, the UK has seen only one death from Islamic terrorism since the 2005 London bombings that killed 56, including the four perpetrators. The solitary death was Fusilier Lee Rigby, murdered in an al-Qaida-inspired attack in London in 2013. There have been two deaths – Mohammed Saleem in Birmingham in 2013 and MP Jo Cox this year – inspired by white supremacism. Republican dissidents have killed soldiers and prison officers in Northern Ireland.	In spite of such warnings, the UK has seen only one death from Islamic terrorism since the 2005 London bombings that killed 56, including the four perpetrators. The solitary death was Fusilier Lee Rigby, murdered in an al-Qaida-inspired attack in London in 2013. There have been two deaths – Mohammed Saleem in Birmingham in 2013 and MP Jo Cox this year – inspired by white supremacism. Republican dissidents have killed soldiers and prison officers in Northern Ireland.
So how has the UK managed to avoid the kind of terror witnessed in France, Belgium and Germany? The UK agencies will seldom engage in such discussions, wary of accusations of complacency and well aware that words spoken today could look foolish if there was to be an attack tomorrow.	So how has the UK managed to avoid the kind of terror witnessed in France, Belgium and Germany? The UK agencies will seldom engage in such discussions, wary of accusations of complacency and well aware that words spoken today could look foolish if there was to be an attack tomorrow.
But the UK enjoys several advantages. One of the first is that the security services, especially MI5, learned a lot of lessons during the IRA bombing campaigns of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Although Italy had to cope for much of this time with its Red Brigades and Germany with the Red Army Faction (Baader-Meinhof group), the UK faced a much more sustained and relentless bombing campaign. The intelligence agencies and the Royal Ulster Constabulary proved adept at penetrating the IRA, establishing agents – for money or through blackmail or some other means – in the highest ranks.	But the UK enjoys several advantages. One of the first is that the security services, especially MI5, learned a lot of lessons during the IRA bombing campaigns of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Although Italy had to cope for much of this time with its Red Brigades and Germany with the Red Army Faction (Baader-Meinhof group), the UK faced a much more sustained and relentless bombing campaign. The intelligence agencies and the Royal Ulster Constabulary proved adept at penetrating the IRA, establishing agents – for money or through blackmail or some other means – in the highest ranks.
Also, it is harder to acquire guns in the UK compared with continental Europe. The Polish driver of the hijacked truck used in the Berlin attack was shot. The killers in Paris and Brussels were heavily armed. It is riskier for would-be jihadists to try to enter Britain compared with the relative ease of movement on continental Europe.	Also, it is harder to acquire guns in the UK compared with continental Europe. The Polish driver of the hijacked truck used in the Berlin attack was shot. The killers in Paris and Brussels were heavily armed. It is riskier for would-be jihadists to try to enter Britain compared with the relative ease of movement on continental Europe.
Perhaps most significant of all is the drastic reorganisation that the police and UK intelligence agencies underwent after the London bombings. Instead of being so London-centric, MI5 officers were dispersed throughout the country: to the Midlands, the north of England, Scotland and Wales. Networks of contacts and informers were established.	Perhaps most significant of all is the drastic reorganisation that the police and UK intelligence agencies underwent after the London bombings. Instead of being so London-centric, MI5 officers were dispersed throughout the country: to the Midlands, the north of England, Scotland and Wales. Networks of contacts and informers were established.
In the aftermath of the London bombings, traditional rivalry between the agencies also began to be broken down and today teams from MI5 can be found at the headquarters of MI6 or GCHQ and vice-versa.	In the aftermath of the London bombings, traditional rivalry between the agencies also began to be broken down and today teams from MI5 can be found at the headquarters of MI6 or GCHQ and vice-versa.
All three of the UK intelligence agencies – MI5, MI6 and GCHQ – have been expanded and are undergoing further recruitment. MI5 is expanding from 4,000 to 5,000 and MI6 from 2,500 to 3,500.	All three of the UK intelligence agencies – MI5, MI6 and GCHQ – have been expanded and are undergoing further recruitment. MI5 is expanding from 4,000 to 5,000 and MI6 from 2,500 to 3,500.
MI6 hints that it has penetrated Isis, with Younger talking in his speech about taking the fight to the enemy “upstream”.	MI6 hints that it has penetrated Isis, with Younger talking in his speech about taking the fight to the enemy “upstream”.
The most powerful intelligence-gathering organisation in the world is the US’s National Security Agency. GCHQ is a junior partner, benefitting from a lot of the data acquired about Isis and other extremist groups.	The most powerful intelligence-gathering organisation in the world is the US’s National Security Agency. GCHQ is a junior partner, benefitting from a lot of the data acquired about Isis and other extremist groups.
Shiraz Maher, deputy director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King’s College, London, who monitors Isis, sees the US and UK as superior to continental intelligence agencies.	Shiraz Maher, deputy director of the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation at King’s College, London, who monitors Isis, sees the US and UK as superior to continental intelligence agencies.
“The US and the UK do it better,” Maher said. “It is one of the things that keeps us safe in the UK: so far, so good. If you look at disrupted plots here in the UK, it is down to good tradescraft and that does not seem to be happening elsewhere.”	“The US and the UK do it better,” Maher said. “It is one of the things that keeps us safe in the UK: so far, so good. If you look at disrupted plots here in the UK, it is down to good tradescraft and that does not seem to be happening elsewhere.”
In an interview with the Guardian in October, MI5 chief Andrew Parker said the UK security services had stopped 12 terrorist plots since 2013. In 33 years with MI5, Parker said had never seen the tempo as fast as it is now.	In an interview with the Guardian in October, MI5 chief Andrew Parker said the UK security services had stopped 12 terrorist plots since 2013. In 33 years with MI5, Parker said had never seen the tempo as fast as it is now.
The constant fear of the intelligence agencies is they will not stop the next plot. The current threat level in the UK was raised to “severe” – one short of the highest “critical” – in 2014. As Parker put in the interview, with no equivocation or caveats: “There will be terrorist attacks in this country.”	The constant fear of the intelligence agencies is they will not stop the next plot. The current threat level in the UK was raised to “severe” – one short of the highest “critical” – in 2014. As Parker put in the interview, with no equivocation or caveats: “There will be terrorist attacks in this country.”