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| 'It's not inevitable': sudden rise in road deaths prompts search for answers | 'It's not inevitable': sudden rise in road deaths prompts search for answers |
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| Ask a dozen experts to explain why Australia has suddenly had two successive spikes in the road toll and you are likely get a dozen answers. | Ask a dozen experts to explain why Australia has suddenly had two successive spikes in the road toll and you are likely get a dozen answers. |
| It’s statistical noise, or increased drug-driving, smartphone-induced driver distraction or simply more traffic on the road. Regional roads are deteriorating, police budgets have been cut, or road safety campaigns have been ineffective. | It’s statistical noise, or increased drug-driving, smartphone-induced driver distraction or simply more traffic on the road. Regional roads are deteriorating, police budgets have been cut, or road safety campaigns have been ineffective. |
| The president of the Australian College of Road Safety, Lauchlan McIntosh, says it’s the question that must change, not the answer. | The president of the Australian College of Road Safety, Lauchlan McIntosh, says it’s the question that must change, not the answer. |
| Why do we accept road deaths at all? | Why do we accept road deaths at all? |
| “We need a paradigm shift.” McIntosh says. “It’s a good buzzword but it is necessary. We need to have a different way of thinking about addressing road trauma. The urgency, in my view, is not there. | “We need a paradigm shift.” McIntosh says. “It’s a good buzzword but it is necessary. We need to have a different way of thinking about addressing road trauma. The urgency, in my view, is not there. |
| “We have to say it’s not acceptable for anyone to die on the roads. We don’t expect people to die in aircraft, we spend millions after plane crashes doing investigations.” | “We have to say it’s not acceptable for anyone to die on the roads. We don’t expect people to die in aircraft, we spend millions after plane crashes doing investigations.” |
| After decades of declining fatality rates, Australia’s road toll climbed from 1,065 from January to November 2014, to 1,110 for the same period last year, and to 1,185 deaths to November this year, according to the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. | After decades of declining fatality rates, Australia’s road toll climbed from 1,065 from January to November 2014, to 1,110 for the same period last year, and to 1,185 deaths to November this year, according to the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. |
| The number of casualty crashes has also been rising since 2000. The hospitalised injury rate increased from 141.7 per 100,000 people in 2000 to an estimated 160.3 per 100,000 people in 2013. | The number of casualty crashes has also been rising since 2000. The hospitalised injury rate increased from 141.7 per 100,000 people in 2000 to an estimated 160.3 per 100,000 people in 2013. |
| The results appear to buck an otherwise long-term downward trend. | The results appear to buck an otherwise long-term downward trend. |
| As double demerit periods begin across the country this week, it’s worth remembering that the decline in road deaths has been one of the great public health success stories of the late 20th century. Before the introduction of compulsory seat-belt use in all states in the early 70s and the gradual tightening of drink-driving laws, the figures reached horrendous proportions. | As double demerit periods begin across the country this week, it’s worth remembering that the decline in road deaths has been one of the great public health success stories of the late 20th century. Before the introduction of compulsory seat-belt use in all states in the early 70s and the gradual tightening of drink-driving laws, the figures reached horrendous proportions. |
| In 1970 3,798 people died, a rate of 30.4 per 100,000 population – nearly four times the absolute number of people killed in recent calendar years, and about six times the rate when population is taken into account. Vast advances in car safety, road infrastructure, law enforcement and licensing schemes have helped cut the road toll further; from 2,801 in 1989, or 16.7 per 100,000 people, to 1,465, or 6.9 per 100,000 people by 2008. In the full calendar year 2015 1,205 people died, or 5.1 per 100,000 people. | In 1970 3,798 people died, a rate of 30.4 per 100,000 population – nearly four times the absolute number of people killed in recent calendar years, and about six times the rate when population is taken into account. Vast advances in car safety, road infrastructure, law enforcement and licensing schemes have helped cut the road toll further; from 2,801 in 1989, or 16.7 per 100,000 people, to 1,465, or 6.9 per 100,000 people by 2008. In the full calendar year 2015 1,205 people died, or 5.1 per 100,000 people. |
| The genesis of the “paradigm shift” referred to by McIntosh lies in an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report, published in October, which is based on the premise that road crashes are predictable and preventable. | The genesis of the “paradigm shift” referred to by McIntosh lies in an Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development report, published in October, which is based on the premise that road crashes are predictable and preventable. |
| The UN believes the world can cut road deaths and hospitalisations by 50% of 2010 levels by 2020. Volvo recently pledged that no one would die or be seriously injured in its cars by 2020. | The UN believes the world can cut road deaths and hospitalisations by 50% of 2010 levels by 2020. Volvo recently pledged that no one would die or be seriously injured in its cars by 2020. |
| Is such a shift pie-in-the-sky thinking? Is it that far fetched that road deaths could become as unacceptable as air disasters or train crashes? Not for Peter Frazer. | Is such a shift pie-in-the-sky thinking? Is it that far fetched that road deaths could become as unacceptable as air disasters or train crashes? Not for Peter Frazer. |
| His daughter, Sarah, was killed in 2012 when a distracted driver hit and killed her and tow truck driver Geoffrey Clark while they stood in the breakdown lane of the Hume Highway near Berrima in New South Wales. | His daughter, Sarah, was killed in 2012 when a distracted driver hit and killed her and tow truck driver Geoffrey Clark while they stood in the breakdown lane of the Hume Highway near Berrima in New South Wales. |
| Sarah was 23. She had just returned home after backpacking across the world and her car had broken down as she drove from her family’s Springwood home to start a photography degree at Charles Sturt University. The high-speed impact killed her instantly. | Sarah was 23. She had just returned home after backpacking across the world and her car had broken down as she drove from her family’s Springwood home to start a photography degree at Charles Sturt University. The high-speed impact killed her instantly. |
| “I think the thing that I only understood after going through this is that you never, ever get over it,” Frazer says. “The horror of my daughter’s death, the need to identify her, is something that stays in your heart forever.” | “I think the thing that I only understood after going through this is that you never, ever get over it,” Frazer says. “The horror of my daughter’s death, the need to identify her, is something that stays in your heart forever.” |
| Frazer could have let grief and anger consume him. Instead he forgave the driver, who was later jailed, and set about achieving change. | Frazer could have let grief and anger consume him. Instead he forgave the driver, who was later jailed, and set about achieving change. |
| He set up the Safer Australian Roads and Highways (Sarah) group and has campaigned on road safety since. As hard as it was for Frazer to talk about his daughter’s death, he knew driver behaviour would only change if people were confronted with personal stories. | He set up the Safer Australian Roads and Highways (Sarah) group and has campaigned on road safety since. As hard as it was for Frazer to talk about his daughter’s death, he knew driver behaviour would only change if people were confronted with personal stories. |
| “At a statistics level, everyone turns off,” he said. “The motivator for people is to hear a story and then they think ‘that could be me, that could be my family, that could be my loved one’.” | “At a statistics level, everyone turns off,” he said. “The motivator for people is to hear a story and then they think ‘that could be me, that could be my family, that could be my loved one’.” |
| Australia’s national road safety strategy, an agreement between the commonwealth and states and territories, sets a target for 30% reductions in deaths and serious injuries by 2020. But the results of the past two years, should they continue, put Australia on a worrying trajectory of failure. | Australia’s national road safety strategy, an agreement between the commonwealth and states and territories, sets a target for 30% reductions in deaths and serious injuries by 2020. But the results of the past two years, should they continue, put Australia on a worrying trajectory of failure. |
| The federal transport minister, Darren Chester, called state and territory road safety ministers together for an inaugural meeting last month. They agreed the worsening road toll was unacceptable and pledged to place greater emphasis on safety when investing in infrastructure. | |
| They also agreed to find ways to increase drug-driving testing and hold public awareness campaigns on phone use and distracted driving. | They also agreed to find ways to increase drug-driving testing and hold public awareness campaigns on phone use and distracted driving. |
| But the University of Adelaide centre for automotive safety director, Jeremy Woolley, warns that it is rarely one or two factors that cause a short-term change in the road toll. | But the University of Adelaide centre for automotive safety director, Jeremy Woolley, warns that it is rarely one or two factors that cause a short-term change in the road toll. |
| Woolley cautions that the successive rises may just be a statistical discrepancy. If anything was behind it, he said, it was likely to be greater exposure. In other words, simply more cars on the road. | Woolley cautions that the successive rises may just be a statistical discrepancy. If anything was behind it, he said, it was likely to be greater exposure. In other words, simply more cars on the road. |
| “My best advice is you just need to look over a longer period of time to see if it settles down again,” Woolley says. “It just needs further monitoring to confirm that it is actually going against the trend.” | |
| There are relatively few levers available to quickly respond to short-term increases in the road toll. Awareness campaigns and law enforcement activity are chief among them. But the more effective measures – road upgrades and technological advances in car safety – take longer. | There are relatively few levers available to quickly respond to short-term increases in the road toll. Awareness campaigns and law enforcement activity are chief among them. But the more effective measures – road upgrades and technological advances in car safety – take longer. |
| New safety technologies can take a decade to reach the population en masse, because they rely on uptake by manufacturers and then a gradual replacement of older car stocks. The average vehicle fleet takes about 20 years to renew, creating a significant lag between technological advancement and safer roads. | New safety technologies can take a decade to reach the population en masse, because they rely on uptake by manufacturers and then a gradual replacement of older car stocks. The average vehicle fleet takes about 20 years to renew, creating a significant lag between technological advancement and safer roads. |
| “The way to look at it is that the safety that we’re enjoying today is actually from cars designed 10 years ago,” Woolley says. | “The way to look at it is that the safety that we’re enjoying today is actually from cars designed 10 years ago,” Woolley says. |
| But McIntosh believes Australia is still moving much too slowly in encouraging the uptake of new safety technology. | But McIntosh believes Australia is still moving much too slowly in encouraging the uptake of new safety technology. |
| Collision avoidance, autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning and fatigue monitoring technology could be mandated through car safety standards, or incentivised by government through subsidies, he says. | Collision avoidance, autonomous emergency braking, lane departure warning and fatigue monitoring technology could be mandated through car safety standards, or incentivised by government through subsidies, he says. |
| McIntosh, who until recently was on the board of the Australasian New Car Assessment Program (Ancap), is frustrated at the lack of urgency. | McIntosh, who until recently was on the board of the Australasian New Car Assessment Program (Ancap), is frustrated at the lack of urgency. |
| Just this week, the European Commission issued a directive that seeks to have all of the above technologies mandatory in new cars by 2020. | Just this week, the European Commission issued a directive that seeks to have all of the above technologies mandatory in new cars by 2020. |
| “We haven’t done that in Australia yet. The question is why not?” McIntosh says. “Because we have this federation, the issue of responsibility for road safety is sort of shared around the place. Every state’s keen and eager to do something, the new federal minister is very keen and eager, but the institutions that we have aren’t geared for urgent action.” | “We haven’t done that in Australia yet. The question is why not?” McIntosh says. “Because we have this federation, the issue of responsibility for road safety is sort of shared around the place. Every state’s keen and eager to do something, the new federal minister is very keen and eager, but the institutions that we have aren’t geared for urgent action.” |
| McIntosh believes if governments could see the true economic impact of road trauma, greater urgency might follow. | McIntosh believes if governments could see the true economic impact of road trauma, greater urgency might follow. |
| “I hate using the word toll, because a toll sounds like something you have to pay. We shouldn’t have to pay for this,” he said. “The injuries, at 34,000 a year, serious injuries, is a huge load on the health system but it doesn’t recognise that, it just accepts it.” | “I hate using the word toll, because a toll sounds like something you have to pay. We shouldn’t have to pay for this,” he said. “The injuries, at 34,000 a year, serious injuries, is a huge load on the health system but it doesn’t recognise that, it just accepts it.” |
| Frazer continues to lobby governments on road safety in the memory of his daughter. | Frazer continues to lobby governments on road safety in the memory of his daughter. |
| He agrees the kind of shift McIntosh and others have talked about is what’s needed to bring greater urgency to road safety. | He agrees the kind of shift McIntosh and others have talked about is what’s needed to bring greater urgency to road safety. |
| “People have just tended to assume that this is inevitable and it’s not inevitable,” he says. “That’s the key.” | “People have just tended to assume that this is inevitable and it’s not inevitable,” he says. “That’s the key.” |