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Syria ceasefire threatened by attack on rebel-held towns near Damascus Syria ceasefire holds as Russia and Turkey seek UN support
(about 5 hours later)
Syrian government troops appear to have violated a nationwide truce that went into effect at midnight by launching attacks on two towns near Damascus close to the city’s water supply. A ceasefire across Syria appeared to be holding on Friday as its brokers, Russia and Turkey, sought support at the UN security council for the plan it hopes will trump failed peace proposals and end the six-year conflict.
However, the ceasefire, brokered by Turkey and Russia, has largely held across most of the country despite one of the most powerful rebel groups saying it had reservations and had not signed the deal. Despite violations blamed on both sides in parts of the country, there were no reported civilian casualties by Friday night and diplomats were hopeful that the fragile truce would take root, despite all other attempts failing.
Activists from the Wadi Barada valley, a rebel-held area north-west of Damascus that supplies nearly three-quarters of the capital’s water, said helicopters and artillery had targeted the area throughout Thursday night and into Friday morning. Russia, which has invested much political stock in ending the fighting after bombing the opposition relentlessly for the past 15 months, said it would ask the security council on Saturday to endorse a resolution backing its bilateral pact with Turkey – which makes aid access to besieged areas conditional on all protagonists downing weapons.
Much of Damascus has been without water for a week, since Bashar al-Assad’s government and its allied militias launched an offensive to retake Wadi Barada, hoping to capitalise on their victory in Aleppo. The truce, which is the third announced this year, came into effect at midnight on Thursday and follows the evacuation of Aleppo and the city’s surrender to forces loyal to Bashar al-Assad. It covers all areas of the country except those under Islamic State control.
The Assad government has accused the rebels of polluting the water supply, forcing it to cut the flow into the city. The opposition says the water infrastructure was damaged in government attacks and poisoning the supply would also harm residents in rebel-held areas. Asaad Hanna, a political officer in the Free Syrian Army, said violence had reduced on Friday but had not stopped. “We cannot be optimistic about someone like the Russians who used to kill us for six years ... they are not angels,” Hanna said. “But we are happy because we are reducing the violence and working to find a solution for the current situation.”
In addition to the violations, the powerful Islamist rebel group Ahrar al-Sham said it did not sign the ceasefire deal despite Russian claims to the contrary, raising further doubts about its long-term viability. The fall of Syria’s industrial capital, the last major city in which the rebels had a presence, was a seminal moment in the conflict, which allowed the Syrian leader to claim ascendancy on the battlefield and Russia and Turkey to take the initiative on the diplomatic front.
“Ahrar al-Sham has a number of reservations on the proposed agreement and the negotiations are linked to that, and we have therefore not signed it,” said Ahmad Qaran Ali, a spokesman for the group. The momentum of the war has since tipped strongly in favour of Assad and his backers. The rebels have made no significant gains for much of the past year, their firepower blunted by Russia’s air campaign.
It is hoped the fragile ceasefire, the third this year, may mark a turning point and usher in peace talks aimed at bringing an end to the six-year conflict that has killed nearly 500,000 people and displaced half of Syria’s population. It covers all areas of the country except those under Islamic State control. All previous attempts at establishing a ceasefire in Syria have failed within days of being announced. The US has been a key broker in several attempts, and partnered with Russia in the autumn to establish a joint control room to agree on targets.
The talks that led to the ceasefire took place in Ankara and officials from all sides said they hoped the pact would hold in the run-up to negotiations next month in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, which could establish a path to peace. Significant elements of the ceasefire plan were discussed earlier this year by the US secretary of state, John Kerry, and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. However, Washington’s means to end the conflict have steadily evaporated as Barack Obama’s administration grinds to an end and an alliance between Moscow and Ankara continues to grow.
The negotiations are expected to primarily include Russia, Turkey and Iran, effectively sidelining the US, whose policies have alienated Russia and Nato member Turkey. Negotiations have effectively sidelined Washington, which has angered Turkey over its alliance with Kurdish groups in Syria in the war against Isis. Russian tensions with the US are at their most serious in years, after Obama imposed sanctions on senior Russian spy chiefs over allegations of cyber-attacks to influence the outcome of the US presidential elections.
Turkey hopes to prevent a fresh influx of refugees from the province of Idlib, which is expected to be the next target for a government offensive, while Russia hopes to reinforce its role as a global power by negotiating an agreement to end the war. Iran has also thrown its weight behind the ceasefire, with the Iranian foreign minister, Javad Zarif, hailing the lull in fighting as a major achievement. Russia said on Thursday the deal had been signed by seven major opposition groups, although one of the most powerful, Ahrar al-Sham, denied having done so on Friday.
The two countries have improved relations after months of estrangement over Turkey shooting down a Russian warplane that had strayed into its airspace. “Ahrar al-Sham has a number of reservations on the proposed agreement and the negotiations are linked to that, and we have therefore not signed it,” said Ahmad Qaran Ali, a spokesman for the group, raising doubts about the truce’s long-term viability.
The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said at a press conference on Thursday night: “I would like to thank all those who supported the ceasefire process, especially my valuable friend [Vladimir] Putin. Turkey will continue to make every effort to ensure the peace [and] stability of our region and Syria.” Concerns were also raised by activists’ reports that, despite the downturn in fighting, the Wadi Barada valley, a rebel-held area north-west of Damascus that supplies nearly three-quarters of the capital’s water, had been targeted by artillery and helicopters throughout Thursday night and into Friday morning.
The ceasefire was agreed after a series of significant losses for the opposition and a shift in the war’s momentum in favour of Assad. A central element in the momentum of the ceasefire plan has been the involvement of Turkey, which had been at odds with Moscow for the first six months of its intervention, but which is now on side with much of Russia’s agenda for Syria.
The rebels recently lost control of the east of Aleppo, the last major city in Syria in which they had a presence, their defence lines crushed over weeks of sustained attack. They have also come under bombardment in Idlib and rural areas near Damascus. Key to the change has been Moscow’s stance towards the Syrian Kurds, whom both sides view as using the conflict to advance their territorial ambitions. In July, Vladimir Putin told the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, that he supported Syria’s territorial integrity, meaning he did not support any attempt to use the war to advance a claim on sovereignty, which would directly impact Turkey’s four-decade war with Kurdish militants.
The rebels have made no significant gains for much of the past year, their firepower blunted by Russia’s air campaign. Erdoğan said at a press conference on Thursday night: “I would like to thank all those who supported the ceasefire process, especially my valuable friend Putin. Turkey will continue to make every effort to ensure the peace [and] stability of our region and Syria.”
Officials from all sides said they hoped the pact would hold in the run-up to negotiations next month in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, which could establish a path to peace.