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Syrian Cease-Fire Appears to Be Holding, for Now Cease-Fire in Syria Frays but Holds, Giving Hope to Peace Talks
(about 3 hours later)
BEIRUT, Lebanon — A cease-fire between the Syrian government and rebel groups tentatively took hold across the country on Friday, with only scattered reports of clashes, shelling and airstrikes. BEIRUT, Lebanon — Amid scattered reports of clashes and airstrikes, a cease-fire between the Syrian government and rebel groups tentatively took hold across the country on Friday, signaling a fragile peace that could lead to talks aimed at ending more than five years of fighting and a realignment of the region’s powers.
The truce, brokered primarily by Russia and Turkey, who pledged to guarantee the compliance of the government and the opposition, was announced on Thursday and went into effect at midnight. The truce, brokered primarily by Russia and Turkey, who pledged to guarantee the compliance of the government and the opposition, was announced on Thursday and went into effect at midnight. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which opposes the Syrian government and monitors the conflict from Britain, reported pockets of fighting around the country, but recorded few deaths.
Russian officials said that seven opposition groups had signed the agreement, which called for a cease-fire and by peace talks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, next month. The text of the agreement has not been made public. A spokesman for Ahrar al-Sham, the largest rebel group, denied that his group had signed the agreement. Russian officials said that seven opposition groups had signed the agreement, which called for a cease-fire and for peace talks in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, next month. Russia also urged the United Nations Security Council on Friday to pass a draft resolution endorsing the agreement, the third cessation of hostilities declared in Syria this year.
For the major countries and military groups fighting in Syria, the cessation in hostilities reveals a variety of interests.
For the Russians, the agreement keeps their client, President Bashar al-Assad, in power, cements their military foothold in Syria and increases the Kremlin’s influence in the Middle East. American intelligence officials told the Obama administration this year that Russia’s goal was to help Syrian forces retake Aleppo so that Russia could pursue a political settlement on stronger terms. This month, the rebel stronghold in eastern Aleppo fell to pro-government troops backed by Russia air power.
For Mr. Assad’s government, the cease-fire is an implicit acknowledgment that it lacks the military might to take back all of Syria. The agreement fails to address what role, if any, Mr. Assad will play in Syria’s future. Russia has not addressed the issue and is now less likely to press Mr. Assad to step down after the military victory in Aleppo, analysts said.
In an interview with TG5, an Italian television network, Mr. Assad called his victory in Aleppo “an important step toward ending the war,” but added that “terrorists” were still in Syria. Mr. Assad, who has long considered all of the rebels to be terrorists, did not comment on the cease-fire, which was apparently agreed on after the interview was filmed.
For Turkey, the cease-fire reflects a changed strategy. A longtime backer of the Syrian opposition, the Turks have in recent months backed away from their demand that Mr. Assad step down and instead have shifted their focus to limiting Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria. Turkey has also taken in more Syrian refugees than any other country, causing a crisis that could wane if the cease-fire holds.
“This is a window of opportunity that has been opened and should not be squandered,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said referring to the cease-fire at a news conference in Ankara, Turkey’s capital.
While the Obama administration was not included in the cease-fire discussions, the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, said that President-elect Donald J. Trump could join the process after taking office next month. Mr. Trump never objected to Moscow’s growing influence in the Middle East throughout his campaign and promoted the possibility of greater cooperation with the Russians in fighting the Islamic State.
“I would like to express my hope that after the administration of Donald Trump assumes its duties, it will also join the efforts in order to channel this work into one direction basing on friendly and collective cooperation,” Mr. Lavrov said during a meeting on Thursday with Mr. Putin, according to Tass, the Russian news agency.
For the Americans, the cease-fire could create an opportunity to cooperate with Russia against the Islamic State.
Top American commanders in the Middle East have long expressed skepticism about any serious commitment by the Russians to fight the Islamic State. But if the cease-fire holds, it would allow both countries “to revive the joint implementation group agreement and for potentially synchronized strikes in Syria,” said Andrew J. Tabler, an expert on Syria at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
A Trump administration could become involved in future diplomatic talks and also coordinate with the Russians militarily.
For the rebels, Mr. Assad’s ouster has long been the primary demand, and there was little sign that had changed. Residents in some rebel-held areas took advantage of the cease-fire on Friday to hold protests calling for Mr. Assad’s removal, according to antigovernment activists and to videos posted online.
Though Russia said many of the rebel groups had signed on to the cease-fire, a spokesman for Ahrar al-Sham, the largest rebel group, denied that his group was a party to the agreement.
The spokesman, Ahmed Qara Ali, said on Twitter on Thursday that the group had “reservations” about the agreement. He and other leaders of Ahrar al-Sham did not respond to requests on Friday to clarify the group’s position.The spokesman, Ahmed Qara Ali, said on Twitter on Thursday that the group had “reservations” about the agreement. He and other leaders of Ahrar al-Sham did not respond to requests on Friday to clarify the group’s position.
The cease-fire came after the rebels’ worst defeat since the uprising against the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, began in 2011: the loss of eastern Aleppo to pro-government forces this month. The cease-fire agreement excluded jihadist groups including the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which often fights alongside rebel groups, and the Islamic State, which holds territory in eastern Syria and across the border in Iraq.
Also on Friday, Russia urged the United Nations Security Council to pass a draft resolution endorsing the cease-fire, the third cessation of hostilities declared this year. Previous cease-fire agreements, announced by Russia and the United States in February and in September, fell apart in a matter of weeks. The Syrian Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham, formerly known as the Nusra Front, condemned the agreement. In a statement, it said the cease-fire did not address the presence of Iranian-backed militias or Russian troops in Syria, both of which have been allies of Mr. Assad’s military.
The Security Council could vote on the resolution as early as Saturday, although its members have asked for modifications to the draft, Ambassador Vitaly I. Churkin of Russia told reporters. “The solution is to topple the criminal regime militarily though jihad and patience,” said a statement by the militant group distributed on Friday through social media. “Any political solution that solidifies the pillars of the regime or reproduces it wastes the sacrifices, betrays the blood and aborts the blessed revolution that is six years old.”
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which opposes the Syrian government and tracks the conflict from Britain, reported clashes and shelling in pockets around the country, including near the Syrian capital, Damascus, and in the central province of Hama. By midday Friday, it had reported no deaths in fighting between rebels and pro-government forces.
The cease-fire agreement excluded jihadist groups including the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, which often fights alongside rebel groups, and the Islamic State, which holds territory in eastern Syria and across the border in Iraq. Pro-government forces and Islamic State fighters clashed in several places, the monitoring organization said.
The Syrian Qaeda affiliate, Jabhat Fath al-Sham, formerly known as the Nusra Front, condemned the agreement. In a statement, it said the cease-fire did not address the presence of Iranian-backed militias or Russian troops in Syria, both of which have been fighting alongside Mr. Assad’s military.
“The solution is to topple the criminal regime militarily though jihad and patience,” said a statement by the militant group distributed through social media on Friday. “Any political solution that solidifies the pillars of the regime or reproduces it wastes the sacrifices, betrays the blood and aborts the blessed revolution that is six years old.”
In an interview with TG5, an Italian television network, Mr. Assad called his victory in Aleppo “an important step toward ending the war.” But it did not end the war, he said, because “terrorists” were still in Syria.
Mr. Assad has long considered all of the rebels to be terrorists.
Mr. Assad did not comment on the cease-fire, which was apparently agreed upon after the interview was filmed, but he added that he was “optimistic, with caution,” about the incoming administration of President-elect Donald J. Trump of the United States.
Mr. Trump has expressed admiration for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and has suggested the two countries could work together to fight jihadist groups in Syria.
The United States played no role in the new cease-fire agreement, but Russian officials have said they hoped that the United States would join the process after Mr. Trump takes office.
The new cease-fire agreement fails to address some issues that have hindered previous peace talks, most importantly the role Mr. Assad will play in Syria’s future. Russia has not addressed the issue and is unlikely to press Mr. Assad to leave after the military victory in Aleppo, analysts said.
Mr. Assad’s ouster has long been the primary demand of the rebels, and there was little sign that had changed. Residents in some rebel-held areas took advantage of the cease-fire on Friday to hold protests calling for Mr. Assad’s ouster, according to antigovernment activists and videos posted online.