This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jan/12/marks-spencer-tesco-debenhams-primark-jd-sports-flurry-christmas-trading-business-live
The article has changed 16 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 8 | Version 9 |
|---|---|
| Marks & Spencer, Tesco, Debenhams, Primark and JD Sports lead flurry of Christmas trading news – business live | Marks & Spencer, Tesco, Debenhams, Primark and JD Sports lead flurry of Christmas trading news – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 1.16pm GMT | |
| 13:16 | |
| The euro has hit a one month high of $1.0683 against the dollar after the ECB minutes showed a split on extending the central bank’s bond buying programme. | |
| The rise is also due to weakness in the dollar following a lack of detail about Donald Trump’s spending and tax plans at Wednesday’s press conference. | |
| 1.05pm GMT | 1.05pm GMT |
| 13:05 | 13:05 |
| Shorter ECB accounts: QE "recalibration" due to reduced deflation risks (hawkish), but still no sign of core inflation upturn (dovish). | Shorter ECB accounts: QE "recalibration" due to reduced deflation risks (hawkish), but still no sign of core inflation upturn (dovish). |
| 12.55pm GMT | 12.55pm GMT |
| 12:55 | 12:55 |
| ECB - members disagreed over bond buying extension | |
| The European Central Bank’s decision to extend its bond buying programme followed signs of a continuing moderate recovery in the eurozone economy, but insufficient progress towards a sustained pick up in inflation. | The European Central Bank’s decision to extend its bond buying programme followed signs of a continuing moderate recovery in the eurozone economy, but insufficient progress towards a sustained pick up in inflation. |
| At its December meeting the ECB decided to extend the programme by nine months to December 2017 but cut the monthly amount of bonds bought from €80bn to €60bn, but there were some differences of opinion according to the just-released minutes. | At its December meeting the ECB decided to extend the programme by nine months to December 2017 but cut the monthly amount of bonds bought from €80bn to €60bn, but there were some differences of opinion according to the just-released minutes. |
| Some members initially preferred to keep things as they were, as that had the merit of continuity and was in line with market expectations. But the minutes said the option of extending the programme “allowed for a more sustained market presence and, therefore, a more lasting transmission of the Governing Council’s stimulus measures.” | Some members initially preferred to keep things as they were, as that had the merit of continuity and was in line with market expectations. But the minutes said the option of extending the programme “allowed for a more sustained market presence and, therefore, a more lasting transmission of the Governing Council’s stimulus measures.” |
| And it meant that if the recovery faltered the decision could be reversed. The minutes said: “At the same time, if the outlook became less favourable, or if financial conditions became inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment of the inflation path, the Governing Council could return to a pace of €80 billion per month.” | And it meant that if the recovery faltered the decision could be reversed. The minutes said: “At the same time, if the outlook became less favourable, or if financial conditions became inconsistent with further progress towards a sustained adjustment of the inflation path, the Governing Council could return to a pace of €80 billion per month.” |
| So although the change was eventually implemented, some members remained opposed: “A few members could not support either of the two options that had been proposed, while welcoming the scaling-down of purchases and other elements of the proposals, in view of their well-known general scepticism regarding the APP [asset purchase programme] and public debt purchases in particular.” | So although the change was eventually implemented, some members remained opposed: “A few members could not support either of the two options that had been proposed, while welcoming the scaling-down of purchases and other elements of the proposals, in view of their well-known general scepticism regarding the APP [asset purchase programme] and public debt purchases in particular.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.05pm GMT | |
| 12.28pm GMT | 12.28pm GMT |
| 12:28 | 12:28 |
| After a volatile performance during president-elect Donald Trump’s press conference, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day 98 points higher at 19,954, heading back towards the elusive 20,000 barrier. | After a volatile performance during president-elect Donald Trump’s press conference, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day 98 points higher at 19,954, heading back towards the elusive 20,000 barrier. |
| But the futures market is suggesting the Dow will dip back down again at the open, with a fall of around 42 points forecast at the moment. | But the futures market is suggesting the Dow will dip back down again at the open, with a fall of around 42 points forecast at the moment. |
| The weekly jobless figures, due before the US market opens, could have some influence and are expected to rise from last week’s near 43 year low. | The weekly jobless figures, due before the US market opens, could have some influence and are expected to rise from last week’s near 43 year low. |
| 11.27am GMT | 11.27am GMT |
| 11:27 | 11:27 |
| Sarah Butler | Sarah Butler |
| Here’s our story on the John Lewis bonus cut. Sarah Butler writes: | Here’s our story on the John Lewis bonus cut. Sarah Butler writes: |
| John Lewis has warned that its annual bonus for staff will be significantly lower than last year as it prepares to take a hit from the post-Brexit slump in sterling. | John Lewis has warned that its annual bonus for staff will be significantly lower than last year as it prepares to take a hit from the post-Brexit slump in sterling. |
| Charlie Mayfield, chairman of the staff-owned group, which includes Waitrose, said he anticipated a “challenging” year ahead as retailers would have to absorb a big chunk of the rising cost of importing goods just as they are coping with shoppers’ shift to buying online.... | Charlie Mayfield, chairman of the staff-owned group, which includes Waitrose, said he anticipated a “challenging” year ahead as retailers would have to absorb a big chunk of the rising cost of importing goods just as they are coping with shoppers’ shift to buying online.... |
| Mayfield said the devaluation of sterling was “one of the most significant factors overhanging the outlook for the year ahead.” | Mayfield said the devaluation of sterling was “one of the most significant factors overhanging the outlook for the year ahead.” |
| This will be the fourth consecutive year that the group, which is collectively owned by its staff, has reduced the payout, but it is highly unusual for it to cut the bonus when profits rise. Last year its 91,500 employees, known as partners, were awarded bonuses of 10% of salary, the lowest for 13 years, averaging just over £1,500 each. | This will be the fourth consecutive year that the group, which is collectively owned by its staff, has reduced the payout, but it is highly unusual for it to cut the bonus when profits rise. Last year its 91,500 employees, known as partners, were awarded bonuses of 10% of salary, the lowest for 13 years, averaging just over £1,500 each. |
| The bonus payout started in 1920. It was suspended during the second world war and the early 1950s recession, and peaked at 24% of salary in the 1980s. The highest payout in recent years was 18% in 2011. | The bonus payout started in 1920. It was suspended during the second world war and the early 1950s recession, and peaked at 24% of salary in the 1980s. The highest payout in recent years was 18% in 2011. |
| The full report is here: | The full report is here: |
| 11.21am GMT | 11.21am GMT |
| 11:21 | 11:21 |
| Here’s a quick roundup of the day’s main retail updates from George Salmon, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown: | Here’s a quick roundup of the day’s main retail updates from George Salmon, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown: |
| The first set of positive like-for-likes in the Clothing and Home division for almost two years is the main headline at M&S. While last year’s frankly abysmal performance was hardly a tough benchmark to beat, investors will be hoping that Steve Rowe’s plans to revitalise the group gain some traction and this marks the start of a more positive trajectory. | The first set of positive like-for-likes in the Clothing and Home division for almost two years is the main headline at M&S. While last year’s frankly abysmal performance was hardly a tough benchmark to beat, investors will be hoping that Steve Rowe’s plans to revitalise the group gain some traction and this marks the start of a more positive trajectory. |
| There was some Christmas cheer at M&S’ high street rival Debenhams too. The group gathered momentum through the all-important Christmas quarter, rounding it off in style by upping like-for-like sales by 5% in the seven weeks to 7 January. It wasn’t just in stores that things look brighter either. Online sales jumped 17% in that period. | There was some Christmas cheer at M&S’ high street rival Debenhams too. The group gathered momentum through the all-important Christmas quarter, rounding it off in style by upping like-for-like sales by 5% in the seven weeks to 7 January. It wasn’t just in stores that things look brighter either. Online sales jumped 17% in that period. |
| It was more of a mixed bag at John Lewis, however. While sales growth of almost 5% means that the tills were certainly ringing, the group says that greater challenges across the retail sector, notably the continuing shift to online, means that profit is likely to come under pressure. Unfortunately for those at the group, the likely upshot here is a significantly lower bonus than last year. | It was more of a mixed bag at John Lewis, however. While sales growth of almost 5% means that the tills were certainly ringing, the group says that greater challenges across the retail sector, notably the continuing shift to online, means that profit is likely to come under pressure. Unfortunately for those at the group, the likely upshot here is a significantly lower bonus than last year. |
| To see evidence of that shift to online spending, look no further than the 30% sales growth that Asos pulled in at the back end of last year. With more customers ordering more often, expectations for full year sales growth have been raised, but this means extra investment too. The group will need to spend another £30m to keep up with the relentlessly increasing demand. This is one of the better problems to have, we feel. | To see evidence of that shift to online spending, look no further than the 30% sales growth that Asos pulled in at the back end of last year. With more customers ordering more often, expectations for full year sales growth have been raised, but this means extra investment too. The group will need to spend another £30m to keep up with the relentlessly increasing demand. This is one of the better problems to have, we feel. |
| Primark owner Associated British Foods doesn’t do online shopping. Instead, the focus for the retail division is on rolling out its pile it high, sell it cheap format across Europe and the US. With expansion continuing apace, investors may be excused for being a touch disappointed by the 11% growth in sales reported today. Square footage increased by 12% in the last year. | Primark owner Associated British Foods doesn’t do online shopping. Instead, the focus for the retail division is on rolling out its pile it high, sell it cheap format across Europe and the US. With expansion continuing apace, investors may be excused for being a touch disappointed by the 11% growth in sales reported today. Square footage increased by 12% in the last year. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 11.23am GMT | at 11.23am GMT |
| 10.59am GMT | 10.59am GMT |
| 10:59 | 10:59 |
| Still with the economy, and eurozone industrial production rose more sharply than expected in November. | Still with the economy, and eurozone industrial production rose more sharply than expected in November. |
| Output climbed by 1.5% month on month compared to forecasts of a 0.5% increase. Year on year it rose 3.2%, much better than the 1.6% expected. | Output climbed by 1.5% month on month compared to forecasts of a 0.5% increase. Year on year it rose 3.2%, much better than the 1.6% expected. |
| The October figures were revised upwards, with a 0.1% rise month on month compared to an earlier reported fall of 0.1%. Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: | The October figures were revised upwards, with a 0.1% rise month on month compared to an earlier reported fall of 0.1%. Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, said: |
| After stuttering throughout the summer, industrial production in the eurozone bounced back with a vengeance in November, which will give the ECB serious grounds for confidence at this early stage in 2017. | After stuttering throughout the summer, industrial production in the eurozone bounced back with a vengeance in November, which will give the ECB serious grounds for confidence at this early stage in 2017. |
| The outlook remains weighed down by continued political uncertainty, but the recovery in the region is gathering some real momentum. Unemployment is falling, business confidence is up and the weak euro is a real boost for exporters. | The outlook remains weighed down by continued political uncertainty, but the recovery in the region is gathering some real momentum. Unemployment is falling, business confidence is up and the weak euro is a real boost for exporters. |
| Although Mario Draghi and his ECB colleagues are still faced with some very real political threats, the economy is standing up well in the face of adversity. | Although Mario Draghi and his ECB colleagues are still faced with some very real political threats, the economy is standing up well in the face of adversity. |
| The ECB is due to announce its latest monetary policy deliberations next Thursday. | The ECB is due to announce its latest monetary policy deliberations next Thursday. |
| Back with the industrial production figures and Howard Archer, economist at IHS Markit, was also positive but warned of an uncertain outlook: | Back with the industrial production figures and Howard Archer, economist at IHS Markit, was also positive but warned of an uncertain outlook: |
| Even allowing for the fact that industrial production has been highly erratic, November’s jump reinforces our belief that Eurozone GDP growth could well have reached 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2016. This would be up from 0.3% in both the third and second quarters. | Even allowing for the fact that industrial production has been highly erratic, November’s jump reinforces our belief that Eurozone GDP growth could well have reached 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of 2016. This would be up from 0.3% in both the third and second quarters. |
| It appears that the Eurozone manufacturing sector carried decent momentum into 2017, and they will be helped by the very competitive euro... | It appears that the Eurozone manufacturing sector carried decent momentum into 2017, and they will be helped by the very competitive euro... |
| Looking ahead, a concern for Eurozone manufacturers will be that mounting uncertainty over the coming months (particularly political) could cause business and consumers to be cautious in their major spending decisions, thereby constraining demand for capital goods and big-ticket consumer durable goods | Looking ahead, a concern for Eurozone manufacturers will be that mounting uncertainty over the coming months (particularly political) could cause business and consumers to be cautious in their major spending decisions, thereby constraining demand for capital goods and big-ticket consumer durable goods |
| It is also very possible that purchasing power for Eurozone consumers’ will become less favourable as inflation picks up, thereby weighing down on demand for big-ticket consumer durables. | It is also very possible that purchasing power for Eurozone consumers’ will become less favourable as inflation picks up, thereby weighing down on demand for big-ticket consumer durables. |
| In particular, an uncertain political environment could be increasingly problematic for Eurozone growth prospects over the coming months, especially given that the UK’s Brexit vote last June and November’s election of Donald Trump as US President fuels concern over potential political shocks. General elections are due 2017 in the Netherlands (in March), France (in April/May) and Germany (in September), while a 2017 election is very possible in Italy following Prime Minister Renzi’s early-December defeat in the referendum on constitutional reform which has led to his resignation. | In particular, an uncertain political environment could be increasingly problematic for Eurozone growth prospects over the coming months, especially given that the UK’s Brexit vote last June and November’s election of Donald Trump as US President fuels concern over potential political shocks. General elections are due 2017 in the Netherlands (in March), France (in April/May) and Germany (in September), while a 2017 election is very possible in Italy following Prime Minister Renzi’s early-December defeat in the referendum on constitutional reform which has led to his resignation. |
| And Capital Economics pointed out: | And Capital Economics pointed out: |
| Nov's 1.5% m/m rise in euro-zone Ind. production was boosted by a huge gain of 16.3% in Ireland - a statistical quirk that may be reversed pic.twitter.com/bUsdq182Ii | Nov's 1.5% m/m rise in euro-zone Ind. production was boosted by a huge gain of 16.3% in Ireland - a statistical quirk that may be reversed pic.twitter.com/bUsdq182Ii |
| 10.47am GMT | 10.47am GMT |
| 10:47 | 10:47 |
| German economy grows at fastest rate in five years | German economy grows at fastest rate in five years |
| Good news for the eurozone as the Germany economy, the major driver of growth in the region, recorded its best performance for five years in 2016. | Good news for the eurozone as the Germany economy, the major driver of growth in the region, recorded its best performance for five years in 2016. |
| German GDP grew by 1.9% last year, up from 1.7% in 2015 and better than the expected 1.8% rise. The economy was boosted by strong domestic demand, compensating for sluggish demand for exports. ING economist Carsten Brzeski said the German economy remained an “island of happiness”, adding: | German GDP grew by 1.9% last year, up from 1.7% in 2015 and better than the expected 1.8% rise. The economy was boosted by strong domestic demand, compensating for sluggish demand for exports. ING economist Carsten Brzeski said the German economy remained an “island of happiness”, adding: |
| The German economy has once again defied several deep hits. Despite the stock market crash in China, Brexit, Turkey, Trump and Italy, the economy performed its best growth year since 2011. Strong domestic demand has shielded the German economy against most external risks. | The German economy has once again defied several deep hits. Despite the stock market crash in China, Brexit, Turkey, Trump and Italy, the economy performed its best growth year since 2011. Strong domestic demand has shielded the German economy against most external risks. |
| And he said the biggest risk to future growth was complacency: | And he said the biggest risk to future growth was complacency: |
| [2016] was a year in which the German economy proved to be more robust than many thought and in which the economy weathered a series of external risks extremely well, thanks to strong domestic demand. In fact, the often controversially discussed refugee crisis and the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy turned out to be an economic blessing, artificially extending the long, positive cycle of the economy. The year 2017 will in our view look very much like 2016, only with a bit less of everything. Domestic demand, ie construction and both private and public consumption, should remain the main growth drivers. The biggest risk for the economy is not Trump or political populism in the Eurozone but self-complacency. The economy urgently needs new impetus from new structural reforms and stronger public and private investment. It is very unlikely that it will get any of these before the elections. | [2016] was a year in which the German economy proved to be more robust than many thought and in which the economy weathered a series of external risks extremely well, thanks to strong domestic demand. In fact, the often controversially discussed refugee crisis and the ECB’s ultra-loose monetary policy turned out to be an economic blessing, artificially extending the long, positive cycle of the economy. The year 2017 will in our view look very much like 2016, only with a bit less of everything. Domestic demand, ie construction and both private and public consumption, should remain the main growth drivers. The biggest risk for the economy is not Trump or political populism in the Eurozone but self-complacency. The economy urgently needs new impetus from new structural reforms and stronger public and private investment. It is very unlikely that it will get any of these before the elections. |
| UniCredit economist Andreas Rees was also positive: | UniCredit economist Andreas Rees was also positive: |
| The German economy remains a stronghold of continuity. With plus 1.9% in 2016, its growth performance was rock solid and even accelerated to its strongest pace in the last five years (2015: +1.7%; 2014: +1.6%). Once again, the major driver was domestic demand in the form of private and public consumer expenditures and not export activity. Imports were even outpacing exports last year. Taking a glimpse into 2017, the German economy remains fundamentally in good shape. The growth drivers will change somewhat, since there will be a (moderate) shift from domestic demand to stronger export activity. What can go wrong? It goes without saying that there are substantial political risks, especially from the US, which could have an (indirect) impact on German exports. Whether and how this will play out still remains to be seen. For 2017, we expect “only” GDP growth of 1.5%. Please note that the reason for the drop is NOT based on fundamentals and definitely not a reason to be worried. Instead, the lower number of working days is artificially weighing on the headline growth number (calendar-day adjusted growth in 2017: +1.8% after also +1.8% last year). | The German economy remains a stronghold of continuity. With plus 1.9% in 2016, its growth performance was rock solid and even accelerated to its strongest pace in the last five years (2015: +1.7%; 2014: +1.6%). Once again, the major driver was domestic demand in the form of private and public consumer expenditures and not export activity. Imports were even outpacing exports last year. Taking a glimpse into 2017, the German economy remains fundamentally in good shape. The growth drivers will change somewhat, since there will be a (moderate) shift from domestic demand to stronger export activity. What can go wrong? It goes without saying that there are substantial political risks, especially from the US, which could have an (indirect) impact on German exports. Whether and how this will play out still remains to be seen. For 2017, we expect “only” GDP growth of 1.5%. Please note that the reason for the drop is NOT based on fundamentals and definitely not a reason to be worried. Instead, the lower number of working days is artificially weighing on the headline growth number (calendar-day adjusted growth in 2017: +1.8% after also +1.8% last year). |
| 10.21am GMT | 10.21am GMT |
| 10:21 | 10:21 |
| Pharma shares hit by Trump comments | Pharma shares hit by Trump comments |
| Speaking of Donald Trump, one market moving comment in his press conference related to pharmaceutical companies. | Speaking of Donald Trump, one market moving comment in his press conference related to pharmaceutical companies. |
| He said drugs companies were “getting away with murder” in the prices they charged and promised that would change. That sent US pharma stocks lower, and theat sentiment has carried over into Europe. | He said drugs companies were “getting away with murder” in the prices they charged and promised that would change. That sent US pharma stocks lower, and theat sentiment has carried over into Europe. |
| So Shire, Hikma, GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca have all seen their shares fall. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: | So Shire, Hikma, GlaxoSmithKline and AstraZeneca have all seen their shares fall. Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said: |
| If pharmaceutical companies were hoping for an easier ride from President elect Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton they were quickly disabused of this notion last night when the President elect let rip at the industry’s pricing policies. | If pharmaceutical companies were hoping for an easier ride from President elect Donald Trump than Hillary Clinton they were quickly disabused of this notion last night when the President elect let rip at the industry’s pricing policies. |
| Last year was notable for a number of stories related to price gouging including the Mylan story around the Epipen price hikes, and Valeant’s policy of buying older niche drugs and then hiking the prices aggressively, and the antipathy that resulted from these stories has made the industry an easy target for a President who may feel compelled to get some quick political wins. | Last year was notable for a number of stories related to price gouging including the Mylan story around the Epipen price hikes, and Valeant’s policy of buying older niche drugs and then hiking the prices aggressively, and the antipathy that resulted from these stories has made the industry an easy target for a President who may feel compelled to get some quick political wins. |
| At a time when pharmaceutical companies were hoping for a more benign investment environment last night’s remarks were a reminder, if any were needed, as well as a warning to the sector and other sectors as well, of the President elects propensity to adopt a scatter gun approach to domestic policy. | At a time when pharmaceutical companies were hoping for a more benign investment environment last night’s remarks were a reminder, if any were needed, as well as a warning to the sector and other sectors as well, of the President elects propensity to adopt a scatter gun approach to domestic policy. |
| Investors would do well to bear this in mind given that the recent stock market rally doesn’t appear to have factored this into their investment scenarios. The Trump Presidency is unlikely to be a one way bet for stock markets. | Investors would do well to bear this in mind given that the recent stock market rally doesn’t appear to have factored this into their investment scenarios. The Trump Presidency is unlikely to be a one way bet for stock markets. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.37am GMT | at 10.37am GMT |
| 10.16am GMT | 10.16am GMT |
| 10:16 | 10:16 |
| A stronger pound is also taking some of the shine off the leading index. | A stronger pound is also taking some of the shine off the leading index. |
| One of the driving factors behind the recent surge in the FTSE 100 to record levels has been the weakness of sterling, which benefits overseas earners and makes UK assets more attractive to international investors. | One of the driving factors behind the recent surge in the FTSE 100 to record levels has been the weakness of sterling, which benefits overseas earners and makes UK assets more attractive to international investors. |
| But disappointment that president-elect Donald Trump - in his first press conference since July - failed to spell out details of his plans to boost the US economy with infrastructure spending and new tax measure has sent the dollar lower. | But disappointment that president-elect Donald Trump - in his first press conference since July - failed to spell out details of his plans to boost the US economy with infrastructure spending and new tax measure has sent the dollar lower. |
| Against the US currency the pound has added 0.32% to $1.2252, although sterling is virtually flat against the euro at €1.1528. | Against the US currency the pound has added 0.32% to $1.2252, although sterling is virtually flat against the euro at €1.1528. |