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Chinese exports slump as fears grow of a trade war with the US - business live Chinese exports slump as fears grow of a trade war with the US - business live
(35 minutes later)
9.28am GMT
09:28
Conor Campbell, financial analyst at Spreadex, points out that the weak trade data from China is limiting the FTSE’s gains this morning:
After squeaking to a fresh peak last night, making it a record 11 consecutive sessions of closing highs, the FTSE quickly began to build above 7300 this Friday.
The FTSE likely could have managed something a bit more robust this morning if it weren’t for weak data from China weighing on the miners. With Chinese exports seeing their biggest yearly drop since 2009, down 7.7% across 2016, and imports falling a troublesome 5.5%, the likes of Rio Tinto and Antofagasta found themselves in the red as Friday got underway.
Over in the Eurozone there wasn’t really much to work with, though this didn’t stop the DAX and CAC rising by 0.4% and 0.5% respectively.
9.17am GMT
09:17
Mitchells and Butler and Fortnum & Mason have a merry Christmas
On the corporate front it’s a bit calmer this morning following Retail Super Thursday yesterday. (You can read a handy round-up of how the various retailers performed over Christmas here.)
There have been a few updates this morning:
Pub group Mitchells and Butler had a merry Christmas, with like-for-like sales growth of 4.7% in the four weeks to 7 January 2017. In the first quarter overall (covering the 15 weeks to 7 Jan), like-for-like sales were up 1.7%. More here.
Fortnum & Mason were another Christmas winner, as shoppers flocked to the upmarket department store for hampers, caviar and white truffles. Like-for-like sales rose 16% in the five weeks to 1 January.
Things appear less rosy at Countrywide. The estate agent said it expected to report a 6% fall in transactions for 2016 and predicted a further slowdown in 2017.
Updated
at 9.22am GMT
8.45am GMT8.45am GMT
08:4508:45
FTSE hits new record highFTSE hits new record high
The FTSE 100 has hit a new record high and is on course to extend its longest ever winning streak. The index is currently up 27 points or 0.4% at 7,320.The FTSE 100 has hit a new record high and is on course to extend its longest ever winning streak. The index is currently up 27 points or 0.4% at 7,320.
Europe’s major markets are all higher this morning:Europe’s major markets are all higher this morning:
FTSE 100: +0.4% at 7,320FTSE 100: +0.4% at 7,320
Germany’s DAX: +0.4% at 11,570Germany’s DAX: +0.4% at 11,570
France’s CAC: +0.5% at 4,887France’s CAC: +0.5% at 4,887
Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.2% at 19,387Italy’s FTSE MIB: +1.2% at 19,387
Spain’s IBEX: +0.3% at 9,439Spain’s IBEX: +0.3% at 9,439
8.34am GMT8.34am GMT
08:3408:34
Over in the currency markets, one-week sterling volatility jumped to the highest since early November as Theresa May prepares to give a speech on Brexit on Tuesday, hitting 14.275 according to Reuters.Over in the currency markets, one-week sterling volatility jumped to the highest since early November as Theresa May prepares to give a speech on Brexit on Tuesday, hitting 14.275 according to Reuters.
It is expected to be a major speech from the prime minister outlining her plans for Britain’s exit from the European Union. As economists at Investec note, the speech “will almost certainly have implications for sterling”.It is expected to be a major speech from the prime minister outlining her plans for Britain’s exit from the European Union. As economists at Investec note, the speech “will almost certainly have implications for sterling”.
The pound is currently up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2181.The pound is currently up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.2181.
8.14am GMT8.14am GMT
08:1408:14
Also coming up....Also coming up....
Michael Saunders, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, will be giving a speech later this morning at the Resolution Foundation in London. Economists and investors will be looking for any clues on the latest thinking at Threadneedle Street.Michael Saunders, an external member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, will be giving a speech later this morning at the Resolution Foundation in London. Economists and investors will be looking for any clues on the latest thinking at Threadneedle Street.
Traders and economists will also be looking out for US retail sales (13.30 UK time), for signs of how the broader economy was performing at the end of 2016.Traders and economists will also be looking out for US retail sales (13.30 UK time), for signs of how the broader economy was performing at the end of 2016.
And of course we’ll be monitoring the markets to see whether the FTSE 100 can extend its record run of rises...the indication from early trading is yes, with the index up 29 points at 7,321.And of course we’ll be monitoring the markets to see whether the FTSE 100 can extend its record run of rises...the indication from early trading is yes, with the index up 29 points at 7,321.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.14am GMTat 8.14am GMT
8.08am GMT8.08am GMT
08:0808:08
Biggest drop in Chinese exports since 2009Biggest drop in Chinese exports since 2009
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
Trade data from China has disappointed, with exports falling 7.7% in 2016, the biggest drop since 2009. Imports fell 5.5%.Trade data from China has disappointed, with exports falling 7.7% in 2016, the biggest drop since 2009. Imports fell 5.5%.
The weaker-than-expected performance will raise fears that global demand is slowing, in Europe and elsewhere.The weaker-than-expected performance will raise fears that global demand is slowing, in Europe and elsewhere.
Another major concern is the prospect of a trade war between China and the US, once Donald Trump is in the White House. The president-elect has already signalled he will take a tough stance against China.Another major concern is the prospect of a trade war between China and the US, once Donald Trump is in the White House. The president-elect has already signalled he will take a tough stance against China.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, says it is difficult to see any improvement in China’s trade position any time soon:Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, says it is difficult to see any improvement in China’s trade position any time soon:
Looking ahead, it’s hard to see conditions becoming much more favourable to Chinese trade than they already are. Further upside to economic activity, both in China and abroad, is probably now limited given declines in trend growth.Looking ahead, it’s hard to see conditions becoming much more favourable to Chinese trade than they already are. Further upside to economic activity, both in China and abroad, is probably now limited given declines in trend growth.
Instead, the risks to trade lie to the downside – the likelihood of a damaging trade spat between China and the US has risen in recent weeks following Trump’s appointment of hardliners to lead US trade policy.Instead, the risks to trade lie to the downside – the likelihood of a damaging trade spat between China and the US has risen in recent weeks following Trump’s appointment of hardliners to lead US trade policy.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.10am GMTat 8.10am GMT