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Bravado only partially masks contradictions in Theresa May's speech Bravado only partially masks contradictions in Theresa May's speech
(35 minutes later)
Working on the theory that the best way to get what you want is to look like you don’t want it very much, Theresa May began her Brexit negotiations as she means to go on: with a very continental shrug of the shoulders.Working on the theory that the best way to get what you want is to look like you don’t want it very much, Theresa May began her Brexit negotiations as she means to go on: with a very continental shrug of the shoulders.
Great Britain, insisted the prime minister, has been held back from its global destiny by a Europe that threatened to crush the individuality of its members in a “vice-like grip”. If this grip means it punishes us for daring to leave, this would be a “calamitous act of self-harm” not by Britain – as most foreigners believe – but by the EU, which exports £290bn to the UK. Great Britain, insisted the prime minister, had been held back from its global destiny by a Europe that threatened to crush the individuality of its members in a “vice-like grip”. If it punished us for daring to leave, this would be a “calamitous act of self-harm” not by Britain – as most foreigners believe – but by the EU, which exports £290bn to the UK.
It would be a mistake, however, to assume this confident show of bravado means that Downing Street is as ready to walk away from a “bad” exit deal – as many will take this speech to imply. It would be a mistake, however, to assume this confident show of bravado means Downing Street is as ready to walk away from a “bad” exit deal as many will take this speech to imply.
The first clue to the prime minister’s ongoing need for more cordial relations with Europe in private is her announcement of a second vote in parliament at the end of the process.The first clue to the prime minister’s ongoing need for more cordial relations with Europe in private is her announcement of a second vote in parliament at the end of the process.
The pound rose on news of this commitment, after several days in which sterling was perhaps falsely depressed by talk of May promising “clean Brexit”. Asking MPs to sign off on the terms of the exit deal is a sign not only that the government still hopes there will be a deal to vote on – but means it may yet be rejected by parliament, leading instead to the messiest of departures. The pound rose on news of this commitment, after several days in which sterling was perhaps falsely depressed by talk of May promising “clean Brexit”. Asking MPs to sign off on the terms of the exit deal is a sign not only that the government still hopes there will be a deal to vote on, but that it may yet be rejected by parliament, leading instead to the messiest of departures.
This was not the only contradiction lurking behind the podium at Lancaster House. Despite appearing to blame EU membership for Britain’s lacklustre international trade performance, May also made clear she wishes to maintain as much access to the single market and customs union as Europe will allow without demanding too much in return. This was not the only contradiction lurking behind the podium at Lancaster House. Despite appearing to blame EU membership for Britain’s lacklustre international trade performance, May also made clear she wished to maintain as much access to the single market and customs union as Europe would allow without demanding too much in return.
Industry-specific deals for nervous carmakers and bankers were dangled as a possibility. Not only one, but several, transitional arrangements would be sought so that nothing happens too abruptly. Industry-specific deals for nervous carmakers and bankers were dangled as a possibility. Not only one but several transitional arrangements would be sought so that nothing happened too abruptly.
A bespoke customs union is possible, she claimed, in which Britain might continue to benefit from “frictionless” supply chains, while being free to negotiate its own tariff arrangements with non-EU countries. “We do not seek membership [of the single market],” she said. “Instead we seek the greatest possible access to it.” A bespoke customs union was possible, she claimed, in which Britain may continue to benefit from “frictionless” supply chains while being free to negotiate its own tariff arrangements with non-EU countries. “We do not seek membership [of the single market],” she said. “Instead we seek the greatest possible access to it.”
What the European Union’s interest is in agreeing to these seemingly contradictory things was rather less clear, beyond the general assertion that trade is not a “zero-sum deal”. What the European Union’s interest is in agreeing to these seemingly contradictory things was rather less clear, beyond the general assertion that trade was not a “zero-sum deal”.
To those who might wonder what the point of membership might be if Britain gets all this for nothing, the prime minister asserted: “We do not wish to undermine the single market,” insisting she still believed it was good for Europe, while simultaneously outlining her reasons for leaving. To those who might wonder what the point of membership would be if Britain gets all this for nothing, the prime minister asserted: “We do not wish to undermine the single market,” insisting she still believed it was good for Europe, while simultaneously outlining her reasons for leaving.
May also had an answer for those who question her confident assertion that things will be fine. “Those who urge us to reveal more, the blow by blow details… will not be acting in the national interest,” she said. “Every stray word and hyped-up media report will make it harder to get the right deal for Britain.” May also had an answer for those who question her confident assertion that things will be fine. “Those who urge us to reveal more, the blow-by-blow details … will not be acting in the national interest,” she said. “Every stray word and hyped-up media report will make it harder to get the right deal for Britain.”
Sounding at times like a wartime leader warning that “loose lips, sink ships”, the prime minister said it was “vital to maintain discipline” by not giving away any detail on how she plans to achieve the dozen ambitious objectives outlined on Tuesday. In recent weeks, critics have suggested the lack of such explanations was a sign that the government lacked a clear strategy, or worse, perhaps evidence of “control freakery” inside Number 10. Sounding at times like a wartime leader warning that loose lips sink ships, the prime minister said it was “vital to maintain discipline” by not giving away any detail on how she planned to achieve the dozen ambitious objectives outlined on Tuesday.
In recent weeks, critics have suggested the lack of such explanations was a sign that the government lacked a clear strategy or, worse, perhaps evidence of “control freakery” inside No 10.
But May’s lengthy address will go a long way to reassuring observers that she has given the matter plenty of thought. The strong focus on a rosy future for Britain outside the EU was particularly well received by those who once worried her heart was still not really in Brexit.But May’s lengthy address will go a long way to reassuring observers that she has given the matter plenty of thought. The strong focus on a rosy future for Britain outside the EU was particularly well received by those who once worried her heart was still not really in Brexit.
Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage said he could “hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I’ve been mocked for using for years. Real progress.” The former Ukip leader Nigel Farage said he could “hardly believe that the PM is now using the phrases and words that I’ve been mocked for using for years. Real progress.”
Instead, the clearest indication of May’s negotiating strategy was her lack of tactical disclosure. This will be a stoic and stiff-lipped response to the referendum result – one she said that even those voted remain have a patriotic duty to adopt too. Instead, the clearest indication of May’s negotiating strategy was her lack of tactical disclosure. This will be a stoic and stiff-lipped response to the referendum result – one she said that even those voted remain had a patriotic duty to adopt too.
The more we believe that Britain is relaxed if the continent is cut off by fog in the Channel rather than the other way around, the more likely the fog will eventually clear. Yet the fundamental tensions about Britain’s place off the coast remain. Twenty-eight years ago, Margaret Thatcher launched her campaign for business to embrace the single market in the same Lancaster House venue as May. The more we believe that Britain is relaxed if the continent is cut off by fog in the Channel rather than the other way around, the more likely the fog will eventually clear. Yet the fundamental tensions about Britain’s place off the coast remain.
“How we meet the challenge of the single market will be a major factor, possibly the major factor, in our competitive position in European and world markets into the twenty-first century,” said the last Tory woman to lead the country. It could easily have been a line slipped into this week’s speech too. Twenty-eight years ago, Margaret Thatcher launched her campaign for business to embrace the single market in the same venue, Lancaster House. “How we meet the challenge of the single market will be a major factor, possibly the major factor, in our competitive position in European and world markets into the twenty-first century,” said the last Tory woman to lead the country.
It could easily have been a line slipped into this week’s speech, too.