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Sponsors of Syria talks in Astana strike deal to protect fragile ceasefire | Sponsors of Syria talks in Astana strike deal to protect fragile ceasefire |
(35 minutes later) | |
Tortuous efforts to install a credible international body to entrench and broaden the patchwork ceasefire in Syria have partially succeeded on the second and final day of talks in Kazakhstan. | Tortuous efforts to install a credible international body to entrench and broaden the patchwork ceasefire in Syria have partially succeeded on the second and final day of talks in Kazakhstan. |
Discussions ended with agreement among the three sponsors of the talks – Russia, Turkey and Iran – to set up a trilateral commission to monitor and enforce the ceasefirethat came into effect last month. Under the agreement, the three countries will act together to monitor the ceasefire, and take steps to urge those responsible for breaches to desist. | |
Neither the Syrian government nor the Syrian opposition present at the talks in Astana endorsed the final document. | |
The opposition objects to Iran being involved in monitoring the ceasefire, arguing that its militia and Lebanese Hezbollah were largely responsible for most of the ceasefire breaches across Syria. The Iranians had objected to a call in the draft communique for foreign militia to leave the country. | |
However, Turkey urged the opposition, weakened aftera crushing defeat in east Aleppo, not to block the trilateral commission. Turkey insists the commission could prove to be a viable Russian-backed way of forcing the Syrian government and Iranians to stop the breaches. | |
“There will be no signing,” said Yahya al-Aridi, an opposition spokesman. “The guarantor countries, that is, Russia, Turkey and maybe Iran, will just release a document.” | “There will be no signing,” said Yahya al-Aridi, an opposition spokesman. “The guarantor countries, that is, Russia, Turkey and maybe Iran, will just release a document.” |
Iran accused Turkey of stonewalling and continuing to support terrorists by providing arms and keeping its borders open for jihadis. | |
If the deal manages to cement the ceasefire in the coming days it could bolster confidence before wider talks on Syria’s political future held in Geneva under UN auspices on 8 February. | |
The negotiations were the first time the Syrian rebel fighters had been brought to the table since the civil war began more than five years ago. | |
Russia has always insisted that the Astana talks are designed to complement and not destroy the UN process. British ministers, not present at the talks, have wished them well, but fear the talks signify a wider Russian effort to pull a settlement away from the UN to regional players. | |
Moscow, which is determined that the summit signals its successful return to the main Middle East diplomatic stage, put pressure on Iran to offer concessions on the draft communique. Iran, now regarded as the closest external ally of the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, was wary of a reference to UN resolution 2118 on the distribution of humanitarian aid and to resolution 2254, which would open the door to a political transition in Syria. Nevertheless, the joint statement urges the international community to support a political process. | |
Iran opposes any deal that would result in Assad being under pressure to stand aside, or to agree that he steps aside within a fixed period. | |
The UK prime minister, Theresa May, will visit Ankara on Saturday where the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, will update her on the talks. | |
Much of the discussion in Astana took place through the sponsoring delegations and the UN envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura. | |
De Mistura had been pressing the idea of the trilateral commission, saying: “The chances of success will be greater if the parties here are able to agree on a mechanism to oversee and implement nationwide ceasefire. We didn’t have it in the past, that’s the reason why often we failed.” Previous ceasefire monitoring between the US and Russia in Syria failed partly because of a lack of trust and partly because of disagreements about the factions that should be excluded from the ceasefire. | |
The outcome of the Astana talks is also significant since there now seems an acceptance in the Syrian opposition that Russia, in cooperation with Turkey, is seeking a peace deal in Syria after the fall of Aleppo. The Syrian opposition does not make the same assessment of the role of Iran. | |
Syria’s rebels at Astana, largely from northern Syria, are facing battles on the ground with Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (JFS), the former al-Nusra Front, which was until July 2016 linked to al-Qaida. After months of tension and occasional clashes, the confrontation has escalated, with JFS surrounding the headquarters of the large rebel faction Jaish al-Mujahideen in Idlib province. | |
Other large factions, such as Ahrar al-Sham, Faylaq al-Sham and Suqour al-Sham, then mobilised to push JFS back. |