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| Trump’s Muted Tone on North Korea Gives Hope for Nuclear Talks | Trump’s Muted Tone on North Korea Gives Hope for Nuclear Talks |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| BEIJING — For 16 years, the United States has publicly refused to engage in direct talks with North Korea, arguing that doing so would reward it for bad behavior. In the meantime, the North raced ahead with its nuclear weapons program. | |
| Yet with a new president in the White House and South Korea’s leader under the threat of impeachment, a break from the longstanding stalemate suddenly seems possible. | Yet with a new president in the White House and South Korea’s leader under the threat of impeachment, a break from the longstanding stalemate suddenly seems possible. |
| China has urged the United States to enter talks with North Korea to end its weapons program, apparently sensing that President Trump’s desire to make deals could break the yearslong deadlock on negotiations. | China has urged the United States to enter talks with North Korea to end its weapons program, apparently sensing that President Trump’s desire to make deals could break the yearslong deadlock on negotiations. |
| Beijing did so even after North Korea made another stride in its weapons program on Sunday, testing an intermediate-range missile that went into the Sea of Japan. | Beijing did so even after North Korea made another stride in its weapons program on Sunday, testing an intermediate-range missile that went into the Sea of Japan. |
| “The root of the North Korean nuclear and missile issue lies in the difference between North Korea and the United States and between North Korea and South Korea,” Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, said on Monday. “We believe that dialogue and consultation offers the way out.” | “The root of the North Korean nuclear and missile issue lies in the difference between North Korea and the United States and between North Korea and South Korea,” Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry in Beijing, said on Monday. “We believe that dialogue and consultation offers the way out.” |
| China was not alone in seeking a new direction, as it appeared to capitalize on a re-evaluation by the Trump administration of how to handle the government of Kim Jong-un. | |
| In Tokyo, after returning from meeting Mr. Trump in the United States, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told a parliamentary committee that Japan needed to join its allies in finding a different approach. | In Tokyo, after returning from meeting Mr. Trump in the United States, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told a parliamentary committee that Japan needed to join its allies in finding a different approach. |
| Japan must “cooperate with the international community, including China,” he said. | Japan must “cooperate with the international community, including China,” he said. |
| And in South Korea, where the government is paralyzed while waiting for a court’s decision on impeachment and where an election is likely, progressive opposition parties called for new talks, emphasizing that sanctions intended to topple the regime had failed. | And in South Korea, where the government is paralyzed while waiting for a court’s decision on impeachment and where an election is likely, progressive opposition parties called for new talks, emphasizing that sanctions intended to topple the regime had failed. |
| “Dialogue and diplomacy” are the only proven means to end the development of nuclear weapons, said Choo Mi-ae, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party. | “Dialogue and diplomacy” are the only proven means to end the development of nuclear weapons, said Choo Mi-ae, leader of the main opposition Democratic Party. |
| Such talks seemed politically impossible under President Barack Obama, who favored sanctions as the prime safeguard against the North’s nuclear ambitions. There is a growing sense in the region that Mr. Obama’s approach to the North failed. | Such talks seemed politically impossible under President Barack Obama, who favored sanctions as the prime safeguard against the North’s nuclear ambitions. There is a growing sense in the region that Mr. Obama’s approach to the North failed. |
| Chinese analysts said the White House should seize the chance for a new chapter in dealing with North Korea and abandon Mr. Obama’s policy of applying sanctions. | Chinese analysts said the White House should seize the chance for a new chapter in dealing with North Korea and abandon Mr. Obama’s policy of applying sanctions. |
| “We all think that the Trump administration should talk directly with North Korea,” said Lu Chao, director of the Border Study Institute at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences in Shenyang. “That would be the best approach to crack this problem.” | “We all think that the Trump administration should talk directly with North Korea,” said Lu Chao, director of the Border Study Institute at the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences in Shenyang. “That would be the best approach to crack this problem.” |
| But the unpredictable nature of dealing with North Korea was underscored by reports on Tuesday that Mr. Kim’s half brother, Kim Jong-nam, had been assassinated in Malaysia. | But the unpredictable nature of dealing with North Korea was underscored by reports on Tuesday that Mr. Kim’s half brother, Kim Jong-nam, had been assassinated in Malaysia. |
| Dealing directly with the North is anathema to most American officials — Republicans and Democrats alike — who say that would be viewed as compensation for the aggressive behavior of a government whose nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches have alarmed the world. | Dealing directly with the North is anathema to most American officials — Republicans and Democrats alike — who say that would be viewed as compensation for the aggressive behavior of a government whose nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches have alarmed the world. |
| On his first official visit to South Korea as defense secretary, Jim Mattis showed little inclination toward talks. Any use of nuclear weapons will be met with “an effective and overwhelming response,” he said. The United States will keep its “ironclad” commitment to allies in the region, he added. | On his first official visit to South Korea as defense secretary, Jim Mattis showed little inclination toward talks. Any use of nuclear weapons will be met with “an effective and overwhelming response,” he said. The United States will keep its “ironclad” commitment to allies in the region, he added. |
| But during his presidential campaign, Mr. Trump said he would be prepared to sit down with Mr. Kim and share a hamburger with him. | But during his presidential campaign, Mr. Trump said he would be prepared to sit down with Mr. Kim and share a hamburger with him. |
| The administration has begun to review its policy toward North Korea, apparently heeding a warning by Mr. Obama shortly after the election that the North will be the most immediate foreign policy threat. | The administration has begun to review its policy toward North Korea, apparently heeding a warning by Mr. Obama shortly after the election that the North will be the most immediate foreign policy threat. |
| After Mr. Trump chose not to mention North Korea during his brief remarks after it launched a ballistic missile over the weekend, some analysts interpreted his uncharacteristic restraint as a sign of wanting to take a different tack. | After Mr. Trump chose not to mention North Korea during his brief remarks after it launched a ballistic missile over the weekend, some analysts interpreted his uncharacteristic restraint as a sign of wanting to take a different tack. |
| On Sunday, the North Korean missile flew 310 miles before dropping into the Sea of Japan. The test used a solid-fuel technology, which makes it easier for the country to hide its arsenal underground and roll out its missiles for a quick launch. | On Sunday, the North Korean missile flew 310 miles before dropping into the Sea of Japan. The test used a solid-fuel technology, which makes it easier for the country to hide its arsenal underground and roll out its missiles for a quick launch. |
| Earlier last week, Chinese officials participated in behind-the-scenes talks with senior members of Mr. Trump’s staff to arrange the first phone call between President Xi Jinping and Mr. Trump. | Earlier last week, Chinese officials participated in behind-the-scenes talks with senior members of Mr. Trump’s staff to arrange the first phone call between President Xi Jinping and Mr. Trump. |
| That conversation dealt with Mr. Trump’s decision to back the “One China” policy, which recognizes a single Chinese government in Beijing, but the discussions leading to the call covered a range of issues, including North Korea, according to a person in Washington who was briefed on the talks by a Trump administration official. | That conversation dealt with Mr. Trump’s decision to back the “One China” policy, which recognizes a single Chinese government in Beijing, but the discussions leading to the call covered a range of issues, including North Korea, according to a person in Washington who was briefed on the talks by a Trump administration official. |
| “China wants the Americans to talk directly with North Korea,” said Cheng Xiaohe, associate professor of international relations at Renmin University. “China believes the North Korean nuclear problem actually was caused by the Cold War and Pyongyang’s fear of American invasion. Therefore, the blame falls squarely on the U.S., and all the negotiations should be about the U.S. talking with North Korea.” | “China wants the Americans to talk directly with North Korea,” said Cheng Xiaohe, associate professor of international relations at Renmin University. “China believes the North Korean nuclear problem actually was caused by the Cold War and Pyongyang’s fear of American invasion. Therefore, the blame falls squarely on the U.S., and all the negotiations should be about the U.S. talking with North Korea.” |
| At the outset, Professor Cheng said China would not be fussy about how the Trump administration approached any talks. | At the outset, Professor Cheng said China would not be fussy about how the Trump administration approached any talks. |
| “Generally speaking, China is basically saying, please talk — talk whatever you want, in whatever way you like, as long as you guys could reach some consensus,” he said. | “Generally speaking, China is basically saying, please talk — talk whatever you want, in whatever way you like, as long as you guys could reach some consensus,” he said. |
| William J. Perry, a former United States defense secretary, said in Washington last month that the new administration at least had to give direct talks with North Korea a chance to gain China’s help in addressing the nuclear threat. | William J. Perry, a former United States defense secretary, said in Washington last month that the new administration at least had to give direct talks with North Korea a chance to gain China’s help in addressing the nuclear threat. |
| “What might make a difference to China is if we really had already gone through a really serious attempt at negotiation, offered a real alternative to North Korea,” said Mr. Perry, who was involved in North Korea policy during the presidency of Bill Clinton and favored Mr. Clinton’s visiting the country. “And if they turn that offer down, then I think we’re in a much better position to go to China and say: ‘We want to really tighten the screws on sanctions.’” | “What might make a difference to China is if we really had already gone through a really serious attempt at negotiation, offered a real alternative to North Korea,” said Mr. Perry, who was involved in North Korea policy during the presidency of Bill Clinton and favored Mr. Clinton’s visiting the country. “And if they turn that offer down, then I think we’re in a much better position to go to China and say: ‘We want to really tighten the screws on sanctions.’” |
| One American expert on North Korea suggested a clear path for how the Trump administration should proceed. | One American expert on North Korea suggested a clear path for how the Trump administration should proceed. |
| “Trump should start by holding back-channel talks,” said John Delury, associate professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “If those make enough progress, he should then send an envoy to Pyongyang, who could negotiate a nuclear freeze.” | “Trump should start by holding back-channel talks,” said John Delury, associate professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul. “If those make enough progress, he should then send an envoy to Pyongyang, who could negotiate a nuclear freeze.” |
| Mr. Trump could then begin high-level talks that would culminate in a meeting with Mr. Kim, Professor Delury said in an article in Foreign Affairs this month. | Mr. Trump could then begin high-level talks that would culminate in a meeting with Mr. Kim, Professor Delury said in an article in Foreign Affairs this month. |
| Although China is considered the North’s closest ally, Beijing has cool relations with its volatile neighbor. Some Chinese experts call the relationship a “fake alliance,” and Beijing has become increasingly frustrated with the North’s continuing nuclear tests. The Foreign Ministry condemned the latest launch. | Although China is considered the North’s closest ally, Beijing has cool relations with its volatile neighbor. Some Chinese experts call the relationship a “fake alliance,” and Beijing has become increasingly frustrated with the North’s continuing nuclear tests. The Foreign Ministry condemned the latest launch. |
| In a show of exasperation, China backed tougher United Nations sanctions against North Korea last year, but the United States has doubted Beijing’s willingness to exercise control over the North’s rudimentary economy. | In a show of exasperation, China backed tougher United Nations sanctions against North Korea last year, but the United States has doubted Beijing’s willingness to exercise control over the North’s rudimentary economy. |
| Under the tougher sanctions, China pledged to slash its imports of coal from North Korea, the biggest currency earner for the regime. | Under the tougher sanctions, China pledged to slash its imports of coal from North Korea, the biggest currency earner for the regime. |
| But figures from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed that Beijing had imported 14.5 percent more coal in 2016 than in the previous year, raising questions about its enforcement of the sanctions. | But figures from the Chinese General Administration of Customs showed that Beijing had imported 14.5 percent more coal in 2016 than in the previous year, raising questions about its enforcement of the sanctions. |
| In a counterpoint to the possibility of talks, a former American ambassador to China, Winston Lord, in a report issued last week by the Asia Society on the future of relations between the United States and China, urged heightening economic pressure on North Korea. | In a counterpoint to the possibility of talks, a former American ambassador to China, Winston Lord, in a report issued last week by the Asia Society on the future of relations between the United States and China, urged heightening economic pressure on North Korea. |
| Attempts by Washington to gain China’s cooperation have consistently failed because Beijing was more interested in maintaining government stability than removing nuclear weapons, he wrote. | Attempts by Washington to gain China’s cooperation have consistently failed because Beijing was more interested in maintaining government stability than removing nuclear weapons, he wrote. |
| Therefore, the United States should move toward “rapid, not incremental, ratcheting up of Iran-type sanctions,” he said. | Therefore, the United States should move toward “rapid, not incremental, ratcheting up of Iran-type sanctions,” he said. |