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| Tony Blair Wants U.K. to ‘Rise Up’ and Stay in E.U. But Will Anyone Listen? | Tony Blair Wants U.K. to ‘Rise Up’ and Stay in E.U. But Will Anyone Listen? |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| LONDON — With his reputation tarnished by his support for the Iraq war, the former prime minister Tony Blair is a diminished figure these days in Britain, the country he led for a decade. | LONDON — With his reputation tarnished by his support for the Iraq war, the former prime minister Tony Blair is a diminished figure these days in Britain, the country he led for a decade. |
| So when Mr. Blair forcefully urged opponents of a British withdrawal from the European Union on Friday to “rise up” and persuade others to rethink their decision to leave the bloc, he left allies and adversaries alike wondering if his intervention would help, or hinder, the European cause. | |
| In a speech in London, Mr. Blair castigated the government of Prime Minister Theresa May, which he said was “obsessed” with a withdrawal from the 28-nation bloc, a process known as Brexit. He said ideologues were driving the process, and he warned of the “possibility of the breakup” of Britain amid strong support in Scotland for independence. A majority of Scottish voters supported remaining in the European Union. | In a speech in London, Mr. Blair castigated the government of Prime Minister Theresa May, which he said was “obsessed” with a withdrawal from the 28-nation bloc, a process known as Brexit. He said ideologues were driving the process, and he warned of the “possibility of the breakup” of Britain amid strong support in Scotland for independence. A majority of Scottish voters supported remaining in the European Union. |
| Before the referendum, a majority of lawmakers from both major parties had opposed a departure, as had Mrs. May and Mr. Blair. | |
| But after British voters decided in a June referendum to leave the bloc, leading Prime Minister David Cameron to step down, going against the outcome of the referendum seemed politically toxic. Mrs. May committed to honoring the result and to making the departure happen. | |
| Deciding how to extricate Britain from a process of integration that began in 1973 has been anything but easy, however. With the support of the opposition Labour Party, which Mr. Blair once led, the House of Commons voted this month to give Mrs. May the power to start negotiations to leave the bloc. | |
| Though the unelected House of Lords has yet to vote on the matter, Britain now seems set on a path to a “hard Brexit” — a clean, if turbulent, break — with Mrs. May arguing that Britain should leave the European single market, a free-trade zone in goods and some services, as well as the customs union, which eliminates tariffs and customs checks. | |
| Mr. Blair’s many critics on the left and right were swift to respond to his plea on Friday. They accused him of ignoring the outcome of a democratic referendum, in which 52 percent of those who voted opted to leave and 48 percent to remain. | Mr. Blair’s many critics on the left and right were swift to respond to his plea on Friday. They accused him of ignoring the outcome of a democratic referendum, in which 52 percent of those who voted opted to leave and 48 percent to remain. |
| The former Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith accused Mr. Blair of “arrogance,” while Kate Hoey, a Labour lawmaker who had argued for withdrawal, described Mr. Blair’s speech as “patronizing.” | |
| The foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, one of the leading proponents of a British exit, mocked Mr. Blair. “Rise up and turn off the TV the next time Tony Blair is on,” he said. | |
| Almost two decades after Mr. Blair swept to power in a landslide electoral victory, his delivery on Friday was fluent and familiar, calling on pro-Europeans to try to change the terms of the debate by creating an understanding of the costs, “as the facts of Brexit become clear.” | Almost two decades after Mr. Blair swept to power in a landslide electoral victory, his delivery on Friday was fluent and familiar, calling on pro-Europeans to try to change the terms of the debate by creating an understanding of the costs, “as the facts of Brexit become clear.” |
| The government’s objective was to pursue “Brexit at any cost,” he said. “Our challenge is to expose relentlessly what that cost is,” he continued, and to find “a way out from the present rush over the cliff’s edge.” | |
| Mr. Blair argued that Britons had voted to leave the bloc without knowing what would replace membership, and, taking questions after his speech, he likened the decision to agreeing to swap homes without seeing the other house. | Mr. Blair argued that Britons had voted to leave the bloc without knowing what would replace membership, and, taking questions after his speech, he likened the decision to agreeing to swap homes without seeing the other house. |
| “Now they are going to see it,” he said, adding that he suspected people might “scratch their heads and start changing their minds.” | “Now they are going to see it,” he said, adding that he suspected people might “scratch their heads and start changing their minds.” |
| Opponents would, he suggested, discover that there would be “misery,” yet no effect on the type of immigration about which they were most concerned — from outside the European Union, which he said the government already controls but has failed to curb. | |
| Mr. Blair said he intended to set up an institute to make the case against a “Brexit at any cost,” but he denied planning to establish a centrist political party, as some have speculated. | Mr. Blair said he intended to set up an institute to make the case against a “Brexit at any cost,” but he denied planning to establish a centrist political party, as some have speculated. |
| Nevertheless, while fiercely critical of the government, Mr. Blair was equally hard on the Labour Party, which, under the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, is badly trailing Mrs. May’s Conservatives in opinion polls. “The debilitation of the Labour Party is the facilitator of Brexit,” he asserted. | |
| Many voters who normally support Labour ignored their advice on the referendum and supported a British departure from the bloc, provoking a deep crisis of confidence in the party. So far, there is little sign that these voters, or the population in general, have changed their minds in significant numbers. | |
| Like Mrs. May, almost all of the Conservative Party has embraced a British exit from the European Union since the referendum. | Like Mrs. May, almost all of the Conservative Party has embraced a British exit from the European Union since the referendum. |
| Mrs. May has leaned toward a clean break, reflecting her desire to prioritize the right to control immigration from Continental Europe and to remove Britain from the orbit of the European Court of Justice, two points that make membership in the single market impossible. Her hope that Britain can strike trade deals with non-European countries suggests that she is also likely to remove Britain from the customs union. | Mrs. May has leaned toward a clean break, reflecting her desire to prioritize the right to control immigration from Continental Europe and to remove Britain from the orbit of the European Court of Justice, two points that make membership in the single market impossible. Her hope that Britain can strike trade deals with non-European countries suggests that she is also likely to remove Britain from the customs union. |
| Mr. Blair is disliked by many activists in the Labour Party because of the Iraq war and because of his financial dealings since leaving power. But his allies estimate that he has more support among the general population, and they point out that he won three elections, the last of which was in 2005, after the United States-led invasion of Iraq. | |
| His speech was welcomed by the Liberal Democrats, a centrist and pro-European party that has called for the specific terms of Brexit negotiations to be put to voters in another referendum. | His speech was welcomed by the Liberal Democrats, a centrist and pro-European party that has called for the specific terms of Brexit negotiations to be put to voters in another referendum. |
| Yet even some pro-Europeans say it was too soon for Mr. Blair to make this type of argument. So far, Britain’s economy has not suffered the downturn the “Remain” campaign had predicted. While there are signs that inflation is rising, because of the fall in the value of the pound, there are few indications that voters have begun to feel the effects. | |
| Britain has not even started negotiations, let alone left the bloc, and Mrs. May’s critics say that as the reality of a British exit nears, the economy will suffer — particularly if negotiations with the European Union go badly, as appears likely. | Britain has not even started negotiations, let alone left the bloc, and Mrs. May’s critics say that as the reality of a British exit nears, the economy will suffer — particularly if negotiations with the European Union go badly, as appears likely. |
| Mr. Blair’s argument was, in effect, a call to prepare for that possibility, though he conceded that his own intervention was likely to prompt “a volley of abuse.” | Mr. Blair’s argument was, in effect, a call to prepare for that possibility, though he conceded that his own intervention was likely to prompt “a volley of abuse.” |
| Asked if he was the best person to advance the pro-European argument, he said that voters could “like the messenger or not like the messenger.” | |
| “I have the right to speak,” he said, “and you have the right to listen — or not.” |