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Scottish independence: Businesses face tough choice | Scottish independence: Businesses face tough choice |
(3 days later) | |
It's make your mind up time. Again. | It's make your mind up time. Again. |
Two and a half years after Scotland's first independence referendum, the prospect of "indyref2" looms once more. | Two and a half years after Scotland's first independence referendum, the prospect of "indyref2" looms once more. |
And this presents another potential headache for Scottish business. | And this presents another potential headache for Scottish business. |
Last year's Brexit vote prompted some company bosses to reach for the aspirins, as they looked to an uncertain future outside the EU. | Last year's Brexit vote prompted some company bosses to reach for the aspirins, as they looked to an uncertain future outside the EU. |
Now, others may be opening the medicine cabinet, for a different reason. | Now, others may be opening the medicine cabinet, for a different reason. |
Brexit | Brexit |
Brexit looks set to fundamentally change the way the UK trades with the continent. | Brexit looks set to fundamentally change the way the UK trades with the continent. |
Free movement of people, goods, services and capital - the four freedoms enshrined in EU treaties - won't apply to the UK after Brexit. | Free movement of people, goods, services and capital - the four freedoms enshrined in EU treaties - won't apply to the UK after Brexit. |
And the UK will most likely be outside the European Single Market and the European Customs union. | And the UK will most likely be outside the European Single Market and the European Customs union. |
That risks disrupting Scotland's trading relationship with the continent - a relationship worth £12.3bn in 2015. | |
Indyref2 | Indyref2 |
Some fear Scottish independence would have a similar impact within the United Kingdom, with a Yes vote creating a new relationship between Scotland and the remainder of the UK. | Some fear Scottish independence would have a similar impact within the United Kingdom, with a Yes vote creating a new relationship between Scotland and the remainder of the UK. |
In 2015, Scotland's trade with the UK was worth £49.8bn. That's four times as much as its trade with the EU. | In 2015, Scotland's trade with the UK was worth £49.8bn. That's four times as much as its trade with the EU. |
The SNP government stresses that it wants to prevent barriers to trade emerging between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK. | The SNP government stresses that it wants to prevent barriers to trade emerging between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK. |
But over time, different laws could create a myriad of changes to this level playing field. | But over time, different laws could create a myriad of changes to this level playing field. |
Hard choices | Hard choices |
Businesses tend to dislike political and economic uncertainty. | Businesses tend to dislike political and economic uncertainty. |
Little surprise then, that few Scottish firms were hungry for a dose of constitutional politics in the form of a Brexit vote. | Little surprise then, that few Scottish firms were hungry for a dose of constitutional politics in the form of a Brexit vote. |
And the prospect of yet another long-drawn out referendum campaign fills many business people with gloom. | And the prospect of yet another long-drawn out referendum campaign fills many business people with gloom. |
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold the vote between the autumn of 2018 and spring of 2019. | First Minister Nicola Sturgeon wants to hold the vote between the autumn of 2018 and spring of 2019. |
The prime minister, Theresa May, may want to knock back the timing of the vote even later - perhaps as late as 2020, after any Brexit deal is concluded. | The prime minister, Theresa May, may want to knock back the timing of the vote even later - perhaps as late as 2020, after any Brexit deal is concluded. |
That means years of uncertainty - and for business, an unappealing choice: | That means years of uncertainty - and for business, an unappealing choice: |
On the one hand, an independent Scotland, outside the UK, but looking to rejoin the EU. | On the one hand, an independent Scotland, outside the UK, but looking to rejoin the EU. |
And on the other, Scotland within the UK, but outside the EU. | And on the other, Scotland within the UK, but outside the EU. |
There's no third option on the ballot paper. | There's no third option on the ballot paper. |
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