Eurosceptic views in Scotland pose dilemma for Nicola Sturgeon
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Version 0 of 1. A majority of Scottish voters have strong Eurosceptic views following last year’s referendum campaign, with nearly half complaining that the EU has too much power. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey, an authoritative annual study of public opinion, found high levels of Euroscepticism at the same time as the highest level of support for independence it had recorded since it was established in 1999. The findings were released two days after Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, surprised her opponents by setting a deadline for a new independence referendum by spring 2019. They highlight a dilemma she faces over her stance on Europe. The publicly funded survey, done late last year by the social research institute ScotCen, said that more than two-thirds of voters were critical of the EU: 25% wanted to leave the EU entirely while another 42% wanted to reduce its powers. The survey also found that 46% of Scots wanted independence – the highest level this study had recorded, and closely mirroring the findings of commercial opinion polls. But it showed that 21% of those pro-independence voters still wanted to quit the EU, while 41% wanted its powers cut, suggesting a majority of yes voters were unhappy with the EU’s influence and reach. When the first independence referendum took place in 2014, 17% of Scotland’s voters wanted to leave the EU and 36% felt it was too powerful. The attitude of pro-independence voters has softened since 2014 when 25% wanted to leave the EU, but then 36% believed the EU was too powerful, 5% fewer than now. Prof John Curtice, the elections expert who oversaw the survey, said those trends still showed ambivalence among yes voters towards Europe. Some could vote to stay in the UK rather than have independence in the EU, he said, while others might not take part. “There is a risk that linking independence closely to the idea of staying in the EU could alienate some of those who currently back leaving the UK,” Curtice said. Jim Sillars, a former SNP deputy leader, who voted leave in last June’s EU referendum, said last week he would abstain from the next independence referendum if Sturgeon insisted on joining the single market. Sturgeon insisted on Monday that the Scottish National party still believed Scotland’s best interests lay in full EU membership, but she and other senior party figures have made clear they could yet drop that plan in order to win the independence vote. Aware of growing Euroscepticism among yes voters, they floated the alternative option of joining the European Free Trade Association instead – a model known as the Norway option and one that key interest groups, such as Scotland’s vocal fishing industry, could support. That would allow full access to the single market and free movement of people, while allowing Scotland to retain control over its substantial and lucrative fish stocks. Fiona Hyslop, Scotland’s external affairs secretary, said the ScotCen figures showing historic levels of support for independence confirmed “beyond doubt” that her government had a mandate for the proposed referendum. Ian Murray, Scottish Labour’s Westminster spokesman, said: “This report makes clear that Scotland’s attitudes towards this is much more complex than the SNP would admit. There is a big debate that needs to happen in Scotland about the Brexit process and powers coming back to Scotland.” |