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| UK jobless rate hits joint lowest since 1975 but wage growth slows - live updates | UK jobless rate hits joint lowest since 1975 but wage growth slows - live updates |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 11.59am GMT | |
| 11:59 | |
| Some reaction to Philip Hammond’s handbrake turn on the NICs increase: | |
| Overheard in newsroom: "Good news for Barnier and his team: if you can roll over the govt on NICs then wait til the Brexit negotiations." | |
| Absolutely no chance the UK government will buckle under pressure from right-wing press on anything Brexit related. | |
| I bet Philip Hammond doesn't find his joke about Lamont being sacked 10 weeks after delivering a "last Spring budget" so funny anymore | |
| No opposition, new team in govt, charging to Brexit, still found a (home-grown) banana-skin to fall over on. Good Job! https://t.co/5nP4ZExAay | |
| 11.51am GMT | 11.51am GMT |
| 11:51 | 11:51 |
| I wonder if Philip Hammond is now regretting making that joke about his predecessor, Norman Lamont, getting sacked..... | I wonder if Philip Hammond is now regretting making that joke about his predecessor, Norman Lamont, getting sacked..... |
| Here’s what he said during last week’s gag-filled Budget speech: | |
| The Treasury has helpfully reminded me that I am not the first Chancellor to announce the “last spring Budget” | The Treasury has helpfully reminded me that I am not the first Chancellor to announce the “last spring Budget” |
| Twenty four-years ago Norman Lamont also presented what was billed then as “the last Spring Budget”. | Twenty four-years ago Norman Lamont also presented what was billed then as “the last Spring Budget”. |
| He reported on an economy that was growing faster than any other in the G7, and he committed to continued restraint in public spending. | He reported on an economy that was growing faster than any other in the G7, and he committed to continued restraint in public spending. |
| The then Prime Minister described it as the “right budget, at the right time, from the right Chancellor”. | The then Prime Minister described it as the “right budget, at the right time, from the right Chancellor”. |
| What they failed to remind me was…ten weeks later, he was sacked! | What they failed to remind me was…ten weeks later, he was sacked! |
| So wish me luck! | So wish me luck! |
| Good luck Philip! | Good luck Philip! |
| Updated | |
| at 11.56am GMT | |
| 11.47am GMT | 11.47am GMT |
| 11:47 | 11:47 |
| Government ditches plans to raise national insurance rates for self-employed | Government ditches plans to raise national insurance rates for self-employed |
| Oh my goodness! Philip Hammond, the UK chancellor, has just ditched his plan to raise tax rates on the self-employed. | Oh my goodness! Philip Hammond, the UK chancellor, has just ditched his plan to raise tax rates on the self-employed. |
| In a very embarrassing u-turn, Hammond has decided to abandon his proposed changes to Class Four National Insurance Contributions, announced in last week’s budget. | In a very embarrassing u-turn, Hammond has decided to abandon his proposed changes to Class Four National Insurance Contributions, announced in last week’s budget. |
| This follows a stream of protests from Conservative MPs, especially as the party had promised NOT to raise national insurance rates in its manifesto for the 2015 election | This follows a stream of protests from Conservative MPs, especially as the party had promised NOT to raise national insurance rates in its manifesto for the 2015 election |
| Hammond is dropping the National Insurance tax rise! Announces in letter to Andrew Tyrie, chair of the Treasury select committee | Hammond is dropping the National Insurance tax rise! Announces in letter to Andrew Tyrie, chair of the Treasury select committee |
| Here’s the key section from Hammond’s letter announcing the change: | Here’s the key section from Hammond’s letter announcing the change: |
| Hammond is due to speak to MPs about this change of heart, around 2.30pm. | Hammond is due to speak to MPs about this change of heart, around 2.30pm. |
| Our Politics Live blog will be tracking it: | Our Politics Live blog will be tracking it: |
| 11.33am GMT | 11.33am GMT |
| 11:33 | 11:33 |
| Today’s report also shows that the UK employment total rose by 92,000 in the last three months, to a new record high of 31.854m. | Today’s report also shows that the UK employment total rose by 92,000 in the last three months, to a new record high of 31.854m. |
| Employment Minister Damian Hinds says it’s a good sign: | Employment Minister Damian Hinds says it’s a good sign: |
| “I’m delighted by another set of record-breaking figures showing more people in work than ever before and unemployment falling to its lowest in 12 years. | “I’m delighted by another set of record-breaking figures showing more people in work than ever before and unemployment falling to its lowest in 12 years. |
| “Employment is up, wages are up and there are more people working full-time. This is good news for hard-working families across the UK as we continue to build a country that works for everyone. | “Employment is up, wages are up and there are more people working full-time. This is good news for hard-working families across the UK as we continue to build a country that works for everyone. |
| “But we have more to do, which is why we’re pressing ahead with our welfare reforms to ensure that it always pays to be in work.” | “But we have more to do, which is why we’re pressing ahead with our welfare reforms to ensure that it always pays to be in work.” |
| 11.03am GMT | 11.03am GMT |
| 11:03 | 11:03 |
| The recovery in Britain’s jobs sector in recent years has not been shared equally across the country. | The recovery in Britain’s jobs sector in recent years has not been shared equally across the country. |
| This chart, from the Resolution Foundation, shows how some parts of the country have enjoyed strong growth creation, while others are lagging. | This chart, from the Resolution Foundation, shows how some parts of the country have enjoyed strong growth creation, while others are lagging. |
| 10.43am GMT | 10.43am GMT |
| 10:43 | 10:43 |
| The drop in real wage growth, to just 0.8%, is “terrible news”, warns the Resolution Foundation. | The drop in real wage growth, to just 0.8%, is “terrible news”, warns the Resolution Foundation. |
| Laura Gardiner, their senior policy analyst, fears that Britain’s “short-lived pay recovery” could end soon. | Laura Gardiner, their senior policy analyst, fears that Britain’s “short-lived pay recovery” could end soon. |
| Weak pay rises and rising inflation mean that a fresh squeeze is due later this year, and has already begun for some workers, especially in the public sector. | Weak pay rises and rising inflation mean that a fresh squeeze is due later this year, and has already begun for some workers, especially in the public sector. |
| “The incredibly poor outlook for pay has pushed a return to pre-crash earnings back well into the next parliament, making the 2010s the weakest decade for pay growth since the Napoleonic wars. | “The incredibly poor outlook for pay has pushed a return to pre-crash earnings back well into the next parliament, making the 2010s the weakest decade for pay growth since the Napoleonic wars. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.49am GMT | at 10.49am GMT |
| 10.35am GMT | 10.35am GMT |
| 10:35 | 10:35 |
| Ian Kernohan, Economist at Royal London Asset Management, is also concerned by the weak pay growth. | Ian Kernohan, Economist at Royal London Asset Management, is also concerned by the weak pay growth. |
| He believes it will prevent the Bank of England raising interest rates this year. | He believes it will prevent the Bank of England raising interest rates this year. |
| Regular pay growth was disappointing at just 2.3%, and with inflation rising, a squeeze on real household incomes is a major reason why we expect economic growth to slow this year. We expect the MPC to keep interest rates on hold until 2019 at the earliest.” | Regular pay growth was disappointing at just 2.3%, and with inflation rising, a squeeze on real household incomes is a major reason why we expect economic growth to slow this year. We expect the MPC to keep interest rates on hold until 2019 at the earliest.” |
| 10.31am GMT | 10.31am GMT |
| 10:31 | 10:31 |
| A couple more charts from today’s report: | A couple more charts from today’s report: |
| 10.25am GMT | 10.25am GMT |
| 10:25 | 10:25 |
| UK real wage growth falls again | UK real wage growth falls again |
| The drop in average earnings (ex bonuses) to 2.3% per year in November-January means that real wage growth has dropped again. | The drop in average earnings (ex bonuses) to 2.3% per year in November-January means that real wage growth has dropped again. |
| UK inflation was 1.2% in November, 1.6% in December, and a blistering 1.8% in January. So real wage growth was actually only around 0.8%. | UK inflation was 1.2% in November, 1.6% in December, and a blistering 1.8% in January. So real wage growth was actually only around 0.8%. |
| Inflation is likely to have jumped again in February (we find out next week) | Inflation is likely to have jumped again in February (we find out next week) |
| John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, fears that inflation could overtake wage growth this year: | John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, fears that inflation could overtake wage growth this year: |
| “UK jobs growth was more robust than expected in the three months to January, rising by over 90,000 compared to the previous three months. The momentum of jobs growth actually looks somewhat stronger now than a few months ago, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, its lowest level since 1975. For the moment, the jobs market remains in fine fettle. | “UK jobs growth was more robust than expected in the three months to January, rising by over 90,000 compared to the previous three months. The momentum of jobs growth actually looks somewhat stronger now than a few months ago, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.7%, its lowest level since 1975. For the moment, the jobs market remains in fine fettle. |
| “There was less good news on average earnings growth, which fell back to just 2.2% in the three months to January. With consumer price inflation already up to 1.8% in January and set to rise further over the coming months, real earnings growth could be back in negative territory by the end of 2017. This is likely to dampen consumer spending, which could eventually feed through into slower jobs growth as well.” | “There was less good news on average earnings growth, which fell back to just 2.2% in the three months to January. With consumer price inflation already up to 1.8% in January and set to rise further over the coming months, real earnings growth could be back in negative territory by the end of 2017. This is likely to dampen consumer spending, which could eventually feed through into slower jobs growth as well.” |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 10.45am GMT | at 10.45am GMT |
| 10.14am GMT | 10.14am GMT |
| 10:14 | 10:14 |
| Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), says the UK labour market seems to be in good shape: | Suren Thiru, Head of Economics at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), says the UK labour market seems to be in good shape: |
| “The UK’s jobs market is going from strength to strength, with the number of people in work continuing to rise and unemployment also falling. | “The UK’s jobs market is going from strength to strength, with the number of people in work continuing to rise and unemployment also falling. |
| But Thiru also expects unemployment to rise in the months ahead, while wage growth stalls: | But Thiru also expects unemployment to rise in the months ahead, while wage growth stalls: |
| “UK labour market conditions may cool over the next few years as the expected slowdown in growth and the rising burden of upfront business costs stifle firms’ hiring intentions. That said, we expect that the UK unemployment rate will reach a peak of 5.3% next year, still some way below the historical average. | “UK labour market conditions may cool over the next few years as the expected slowdown in growth and the rising burden of upfront business costs stifle firms’ hiring intentions. That said, we expect that the UK unemployment rate will reach a peak of 5.3% next year, still some way below the historical average. |
| “However, average pay growth continues to slow, and it appears increasingly likely that inflation will outstrip earnings growth in the coming months, which will put further pressure on consumer’s spending power. | “However, average pay growth continues to slow, and it appears increasingly likely that inflation will outstrip earnings growth in the coming months, which will put further pressure on consumer’s spending power. |
| 10.04am GMT | 10.04am GMT |
| 10:04 | 10:04 |
| Self-employment total jumps | Self-employment total jumps |
| The number of self-employed people in the UK is rising faster than the number of employed workers, today’s report shows. | The number of self-employed people in the UK is rising faster than the number of employed workers, today’s report shows. |
| The ONS reports that in the last year: | The ONS reports that in the last year: |
| employees increased by 144,000 to 26.83 million (84.2% of all people in work) | employees increased by 144,000 to 26.83 million (84.2% of all people in work) |
| self-employed people increased by 148,000 to 4.80 million (15.1% of all people in work) | self-employed people increased by 148,000 to 4.80 million (15.1% of all people in work) |
| Professor Geraint Johnes, Director of Research at Lancaster University’s Work Foundation, says the rise in ‘gig economy’ jobs (such as delivery drivers) is responsible: | Professor Geraint Johnes, Director of Research at Lancaster University’s Work Foundation, says the rise in ‘gig economy’ jobs (such as delivery drivers) is responsible: |
| “The latest labour market statistics show a large rise in employment and a fall in unemployment (with the rate down to 4.7%). The big gain has come from full-time self-employment - a rise of some 94000 on the quarter - perpetuating the apparent ascendancy of the gig economy. | “The latest labour market statistics show a large rise in employment and a fall in unemployment (with the rate down to 4.7%). The big gain has come from full-time self-employment - a rise of some 94000 on the quarter - perpetuating the apparent ascendancy of the gig economy. |
| Professor Johnes is also concerned that wage growth dropped again: to just 2.2% year on year. | Professor Johnes is also concerned that wage growth dropped again: to just 2.2% year on year. |
| “Over the last quarter of 2016 there was a large rise in employment in construction - some 36000 new jobs in this sector. The fall in unemployment is patchy across regions, with the latest regional data indicating increases in both London and the West Midlands. | “Over the last quarter of 2016 there was a large rise in employment in construction - some 36000 new jobs in this sector. The fall in unemployment is patchy across regions, with the latest regional data indicating increases in both London and the West Midlands. |
| “Increases in total pay, however, continue to be moderate, with the three month average now growing at an annual rate of 2.2% (down from 2.6% last month). Specifically in construction, the rate of growth has collapsed, and this may be an early sign that the employment growth in that sector may not last.” | “Increases in total pay, however, continue to be moderate, with the three month average now growing at an annual rate of 2.2% (down from 2.6% last month). Specifically in construction, the rate of growth has collapsed, and this may be an early sign that the employment growth in that sector may not last.” |