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| Labour's draft manifesto: key policies analysed | Labour's draft manifesto: key policies analysed |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| The most eye-catching proposals in Labour’s draft manifesto are the plans to renationalise the railways, the energy market and Royal Mail, and to abolish university tuition fees. | The most eye-catching proposals in Labour’s draft manifesto are the plans to renationalise the railways, the energy market and Royal Mail, and to abolish university tuition fees. |
| Estimates of costings are difficult at this stage as the leaked draft is a menu without prices, but the party promises they will be fully costed. | Estimates of costings are difficult at this stage as the leaked draft is a menu without prices, but the party promises they will be fully costed. |
| Railways | Railways |
| What the draft manifesto says: “A Labour government will introduce a public ownership of the railways bill to repeal the Railways Act 1993 under which the Conservatives privatised our railways. In public ownership, we will deliver real improvements for passengers by freezing fares, introducing free wifi across the network, ensuring safe staffing levels and ending driver-only operation, and by improving accessibility for disabled people.” | |
| Analysis: Polling shows that more than 20 years after John Major’s Conservative government privatised the old British Rail, many commuters and the public are open to the idea of giving the state another go. Recent polls have shown 58-60% of the public back the idea. Public dissatisfaction with rail privatisation has partly been fuelled by a surge in passengers numbers far outstripping the extra investment in rolling stock, safety and stations. | |
| But as the detail of the Labour’s manifesto pledge shows, this is no policy of 1970s-style state confiscation without compensation. The cautious phrase “as franchises expire” carefully limits the effect of this policy and avoids the problem of the cost of buying out the existing contracts. There are currently 15 rail franchises in place and their length varies from an initial seven to 10 years to longer 15-22-year contracts, so it is going to be a lengthy process. | |
| Energy | Energy |
| What the manifesto says: “Energy companies will be taken back into public ownership with central government control of transmission and distribution grids. There will be at least one publicly owned energy company in every region of the UK, that is a locally run, democratically accountable energy supplier, working to tackle fuel poverty and encouragement for community energy co-operatives.” | What the manifesto says: “Energy companies will be taken back into public ownership with central government control of transmission and distribution grids. There will be at least one publicly owned energy company in every region of the UK, that is a locally run, democratically accountable energy supplier, working to tackle fuel poverty and encouragement for community energy co-operatives.” |
| Analysis: Labour promises to “ensure that the average dual fuel household energy bill remains below £1,000 a year”. The energy regulator Ofgem says the current average variable tariff is £1,086, so a cap of £1,000 would not be a big stretch for the providers. But without a fall in costs, the drop of £86 would rob them of their profits, which the regulator said averaged £47 per customer in 2015. | Analysis: Labour promises to “ensure that the average dual fuel household energy bill remains below £1,000 a year”. The energy regulator Ofgem says the current average variable tariff is £1,086, so a cap of £1,000 would not be a big stretch for the providers. But without a fall in costs, the drop of £86 would rob them of their profits, which the regulator said averaged £47 per customer in 2015. |
| Labour would create a state-run energy supplier for each region to keep private operators honest. It would also take control of National Grid and the regulator to control this natural monopoly. National Grid is a private company and it is unclear how Labour plans to exercise control without nationalising it. | Labour would create a state-run energy supplier for each region to keep private operators honest. It would also take control of National Grid and the regulator to control this natural monopoly. National Grid is a private company and it is unclear how Labour plans to exercise control without nationalising it. |
| Royal Mail | Royal Mail |
| What the manifesto says: “The Conservative government’s privatisation of Royal Mail was a historic mistake, selling off another national asset on the cheap. Labour will reverse this privatisation at the earliest opportunity, because it is a profitable company that should still be giving a return to the many not the few, and because key national infrastructure like a postal system is best delivered in public ownership.” | What the manifesto says: “The Conservative government’s privatisation of Royal Mail was a historic mistake, selling off another national asset on the cheap. Labour will reverse this privatisation at the earliest opportunity, because it is a profitable company that should still be giving a return to the many not the few, and because key national infrastructure like a postal system is best delivered in public ownership.” |
| Analysis: A policy even more popular than renationalising the railways, with recent polls showing 67% of voters back the idea. The post office unions say Royal Mail was worth £10bn when it was sold in 2013 for £3.3bn. | Analysis: A policy even more popular than renationalising the railways, with recent polls showing 67% of voters back the idea. The post office unions say Royal Mail was worth £10bn when it was sold in 2013 for £3.3bn. |
| Tuition fees | Tuition fees |
| What the manifesto says: “Labour believes education should be free, and we will restore this principle … Labour will reintroduce maintenance grants for university students, and we will abolish university tuition fees.” | What the manifesto says: “Labour believes education should be free, and we will restore this principle … Labour will reintroduce maintenance grants for university students, and we will abolish university tuition fees.” |
| Analysis: Variable university tuition fees were introduced in 2006 under Labour, which argued they were a middle class subsidy paid for by working class voters. The coalition government raised them to £9,000 a year in England. The cost of scrapping tuition fees has been estimated at £8bn, with a further £2bn on top for reintroducing maintenance grants. When the costed manifesto is published it will be pored over to see whether the pledge is to be funded from reversing the cuts in corporation and capital gains taxes that have already been earmarked elsewhere. | Analysis: Variable university tuition fees were introduced in 2006 under Labour, which argued they were a middle class subsidy paid for by working class voters. The coalition government raised them to £9,000 a year in England. The cost of scrapping tuition fees has been estimated at £8bn, with a further £2bn on top for reintroducing maintenance grants. When the costed manifesto is published it will be pored over to see whether the pledge is to be funded from reversing the cuts in corporation and capital gains taxes that have already been earmarked elsewhere. |
| Party strategists hope it will the “big bazooka” that will get younger voters, especially students and 18-24s who who still strongly support Labour, to the polling station. | Party strategists hope it will the “big bazooka” that will get younger voters, especially students and 18-24s who who still strongly support Labour, to the polling station. |
| Brexit | |
| What the manifesto says: “Labour accepts the referendum result. We will scrap the Brexit white paper and make retaining benefits of single market and customs union negotiating priorities. We will guarantee rights of EU nationals living in UK. We will reject any ‘no deal’ position and drop great repeal bill, replacing it with EU rights and protections bill to ensure no diminishing of workers’ rights, equality laws or consumer and environmental rights.” | |
| Analysis: It is wrong to say that the Labour manifesto is silent on Brexit. However, it will disappoint Labour remainers looking for a stronger commitment to staying in the single market while not particularly reassuring leave voters that the party is dedicated to delivering Brexit. | |
| Immigration | |
| What the manifesto says: “No false promises on immigration numbers as the economy ‘needs migrant workers to keep going’. Want to see fair and managed migration. That means scrapping £18,500 income threshold for UK citizens to bring non-European spouses to Britain that has led to separation of thousands of families. A migrant impact fund will be established to finance public services under additional pressure financed by existing visa levy.” | |
| Analysis: The manifesto implies Labour would scrap the Tories’ net migration target without giving any hint of its future approach to European migration post-Brexit, especially whether EU citizens will face a similar skills-based visa system that exists for non-EU citizens. The promise of a migrant impact fund is a long-standing Labour promise which has been matched by the Conservatives. |