This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/may/12/german-economy-gdp-accelerates-growth-us-inflation-retail-sales-business-live
The article has changed 17 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| Germany outpaces UK, US and France with 0.6% quarterly growth – business live | Germany outpaces UK, US and France with 0.6% quarterly growth – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 8.22am BST | |
| 08:22 | |
| We have further good news on the European economy, via France. | |
| The French employment total has hit its highest level since the financial crisis, after jumping by almost 50,000 in the last quarter to 16.228 million. | |
| The service sector drove the recovery, creating 56,200 net new jobs, while 4,800 jobs were lost in industry and 2,000 in construction. | |
| This is the seventh quarter of net job creation in a row, indicating that president-elect Emmanuel Macron will inherit a strengthening economy. | |
| 8.10am BST | |
| 08:10 | |
| Today’s growth report also provides fresh ammunition to critics - such as the Trump administration - who claim Germany is getting an unfair advantage from a weak currency. | |
| Certainly, the jump in exports in Q1 indicates that German trade is humming. That means Germany’s trade surplus (another cause of concern) will remain around record levels. | |
| Bankhaus Lampe analyst Alexander Krueger believes. the European Central Bank’s stimulus programme is clearly helping, saying: | |
| A boom without end in Germany... and despite all the risks. | |
| However, it should be noted that the economy would be humming less without the support of interest rates which are too low for Germany.” | |
| 7.59am BST | 7.59am BST |
| 07:59 | 07:59 |
| Today’s GDP report doesn’t contain any sign that Brexit is hurting Germany’s economy. | Today’s GDP report doesn’t contain any sign that Brexit is hurting Germany’s economy. |
| The surge in business investment shows that German business leaders are planning for future growth, while higher consumer spending suggests families aren’t worried either. | The surge in business investment shows that German business leaders are planning for future growth, while higher consumer spending suggests families aren’t worried either. |
| 7.45am BST | 7.45am BST |
| 07:45 | 07:45 |
| Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, is also impressed with Germany’s performance, saying “The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders”. | Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING, is also impressed with Germany’s performance, saying “The economy seems to be firing on all cylinders”. |
| 7.43am BST | 7.43am BST |
| 07:43 | 07:43 |
| Germany is on track for a decent year, according to Jens Kramer, an economist at NordLB in Hanover. | Germany is on track for a decent year, according to Jens Kramer, an economist at NordLB in Hanover. |
| Kramer says (via Bloomberg): | Kramer says (via Bloomberg): |
| “Economic momentum is extremely robust and very broadly based,” | “Economic momentum is extremely robust and very broadly based,” |
| “The steady increase in employment is fertile soil for domestic demand, and trade is providing impulses as well.” | “The steady increase in employment is fertile soil for domestic demand, and trade is providing impulses as well.” |
| #Germany's never ending success story, as ING puts it: German Q1 GDP growth accelerates as investment jumps. https://t.co/3bdx1dHkoV pic.twitter.com/DT2rLmHwvS | #Germany's never ending success story, as ING puts it: German Q1 GDP growth accelerates as investment jumps. https://t.co/3bdx1dHkoV pic.twitter.com/DT2rLmHwvS |
| 7.35am BST | 7.35am BST |
| 07:35 | 07:35 |
| German GDP: Instant reaction | German GDP: Instant reaction |
| Fred Ducrozet of Swiss bank Pictet says Germany achieved broad-based growth in the last quarter - with decent weather helping to deliver that 0.6% growth. | Fred Ducrozet of Swiss bank Pictet says Germany achieved broad-based growth in the last quarter - with decent weather helping to deliver that 0.6% growth. |
| Boost from construction due to mild weather, but otherwise broad-based expansion fueled by capex, exports & consumption. https://t.co/8v6S6WcVke | Boost from construction due to mild weather, but otherwise broad-based expansion fueled by capex, exports & consumption. https://t.co/8v6S6WcVke |
| The FT points out that Germany outperformed its international rivals in the last quarter: | The FT points out that Germany outperformed its international rivals in the last quarter: |
| Germany's economy did better than France, the US, and the UK at the start of the year - expanding 0.6% https://t.co/YeP5Quxs1g pic.twitter.com/qcxKIK2HNq | Germany's economy did better than France, the US, and the UK at the start of the year - expanding 0.6% https://t.co/YeP5Quxs1g pic.twitter.com/qcxKIK2HNq |
| America’s quarterly growth rate was below 0.2% in Q1, while the UK and France both grew by 0.3%. | |
| Howard Archer of IHS Markit has tweeted the key points: | Howard Archer of IHS Markit has tweeted the key points: |
| Federal Statistics Office says Q1 #German #GDP growth of 0.6% q/q due to growth in domestic demand (notably investment) & +ve net #trade | Federal Statistics Office says Q1 #German #GDP growth of 0.6% q/q due to growth in domestic demand (notably investment) & +ve net #trade |
| Q1 #German #GDP #growth of 0.6%: robust investment, modest rises in consumer & govt spending, net trade +ve as exports up more than imports | Q1 #German #GDP #growth of 0.6%: robust investment, modest rises in consumer & govt spending, net trade +ve as exports up more than imports |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.24am BST | |
| 7.23am BST | 7.23am BST |
| 07:23 | 07:23 |
| Germany posts 0.6% growth as investment surges | Germany posts 0.6% growth as investment surges |
| Breaking: Germany’s economy grew twice as fast as Britain at the start of 2017. | Breaking: Germany’s economy grew twice as fast as Britain at the start of 2017. |
| German GDP expanded by 0.6% in the January-March quarter, up from 0.4% in the final three months of 2016. | German GDP expanded by 0.6% in the January-March quarter, up from 0.4% in the final three months of 2016. |
| The growth was driven by higher business investment on new equipment and buildings, plus higher spending by consumers and the government. | The growth was driven by higher business investment on new equipment and buildings, plus higher spending by consumers and the government. |
| Strong exports also helped Europe’s powerhouse economy make a robust start to the year. | Strong exports also helped Europe’s powerhouse economy make a robust start to the year. |
| The Federal Statistics Office says: | The Federal Statistics Office says: |
| Capital formation [business spending] increased substantially. | |
| Due to the mild weather, fixed capital formation especially in construction, but also in machinery and equipment was markedly up compared with the fourth quarter of 2016. | Due to the mild weather, fixed capital formation especially in construction, but also in machinery and equipment was markedly up compared with the fourth quarter of 2016. |
| Households and general government increased their final consumption expenditure slightly at the beginning of the year. | Households and general government increased their final consumption expenditure slightly at the beginning of the year. |
| In addition, the development of foreign trade was more dynamic and contributed to growth as exports increased more than imports, according to provisional results. | In addition, the development of foreign trade was more dynamic and contributed to growth as exports increased more than imports, according to provisional results. |
| In contrast, Britain’s GDP only rose by 0.3% during the first quarter, as the UK service sector suffered a slowdown. | In contrast, Britain’s GDP only rose by 0.3% during the first quarter, as the UK service sector suffered a slowdown. |
| But on an annual basis, the picture is different. Germany’s Q1 growth was 1.7% higher than a year earlier (once you adjust for seasonal factors), while Britain’s was 2.1% higher, year-on-year. | But on an annual basis, the picture is different. Germany’s Q1 growth was 1.7% higher than a year earlier (once you adjust for seasonal factors), while Britain’s was 2.1% higher, year-on-year. |
| More details and reaction to follow... | More details and reaction to follow... |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.24am BST | |
| 7.08am BST | 7.08am BST |
| 07:08 | 07:08 |
| The agenda: German GDP and US | The agenda: German GDP and US |
| Good morning, and welcome our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Today we’ll be looking at Germany, as GDP figures for the first three months of this year are released at 7am BST. | Today we’ll be looking at Germany, as GDP figures for the first three months of this year are released at 7am BST. |
| Economists predict growth of around 0.6%, after various soft data has suggested the German economy began strongly. | Economists predict growth of around 0.6%, after various soft data has suggested the German economy began strongly. |
| At 10am, the latest eurozone industrial production report is expected to show growth of 0.3% for March. | At 10am, the latest eurozone industrial production report is expected to show growth of 0.3% for March. |
| America’s economy is also in focus, with inflation and retail sales figures at 1.30pm BST. | America’s economy is also in focus, with inflation and retail sales figures at 1.30pm BST. |
| Headline inflation is expected to dip to 2.3%, from 2.4%, while retail sales are tipped to rise by 0.5% after falling in February and March. | Headline inflation is expected to dip to 2.3%, from 2.4%, while retail sales are tipped to rise by 0.5% after falling in February and March. |
| Traders are also digesting the news that America and China have signed a new trade agreement -- perhaps a sign of warming relations between the two powers. | Traders are also digesting the news that America and China have signed a new trade agreement -- perhaps a sign of warming relations between the two powers. |
| From Beijing, Tom Phillips reports: | From Beijing, Tom Phillips reports: |
| Relations between the world’s two largest economies have hit “a new high”, Donald Trump’s commerce secretary has claimed, announcing a “herculean” trade deal between Washington and Beijing in the latest sign of warming ties. | Relations between the world’s two largest economies have hit “a new high”, Donald Trump’s commerce secretary has claimed, announcing a “herculean” trade deal between Washington and Beijing in the latest sign of warming ties. |
| Under the agreement China will allow imports of US beef, while the US will allow the import of cooked poultry from China. Beijing will also permit foreign financial services companies to provide credit-rating services in China. | Under the agreement China will allow imports of US beef, while the US will allow the import of cooked poultry from China. Beijing will also permit foreign financial services companies to provide credit-rating services in China. |
| European stock markets are expected to open calmly, with Britain’s FTSE 100 called up a modest 1 point. | European stock markets are expected to open calmly, with Britain’s FTSE 100 called up a modest 1 point. |
| Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7389 +0.04%$DAX 12720 +0.07%$CAC 5392 +0.16%$IBEX 10895 +0.31%$MIB 21545 +0.29% | Our European opening calls:$FTSE 7389 +0.04%$DAX 12720 +0.07%$CAC 5392 +0.16%$IBEX 10895 +0.31%$MIB 21545 +0.29% |
| We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day.... | We’ll be tracking all the main events through the day.... |