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Warm, dry winter weather forecast for much of Australia Warm, dry winter weather forecast for much of Australia
(35 minutes later)
A warmer, drier than average winter has been forecast for many parts of Australia as the season dawned warm and sunny across many capital cities. A warmer, drier than average winter has been forecast for many parts of Australia as the season dawned sunny, if slightly colder than usual, across many capital cities.
The Bureau of Meteorology found in its seasonal climate outlook that warm autumn conditions were likely to extend into winter, with sunny days and above-average temperatures in store for much of Australia. On Thursday, Sydney and Perth were at 17C just before 1pm AEST, the first day of winter, with respective highs of 18C and 24C anticipated.
A drier than average July was forecast over much of Western Australia, South Australia and western parts of New South Wales and Victoria. At 13.2C, Melbourne was nearing its maximum temperature of 14C. Adelaide, at 13.3C, could expect a high of 16C.
Hobart was a whole degree warmer than Canberra at 12.1C with a forecast high of 15C, while Canberra was expected to peak at 13C.
Brisbane was nearing on its forecast max of 22C at 20.4C while Darwin had passed 28C towards a forecast high of 32C.
Scott Williams, a senior forecaster with the Bureau of Meteorology, said in south-east and central parts of the country temperatures were a few degrees colder than average for the start of winter, particularly overnight.
Inland areas could expect “quite extensive frosts” over the next three to four nights, while Melbourne and Adelaide could brace themselves for forecast lows of 4C.
These were below average temperatures, said Williams, but not exceptionally so.
The cold snap would be compounded by a cold front passing through Tasmania, Victoria and New South Wales on Monday night, with maximum temperatures of about 13C forecast for Melbourne and Hobart.
The forecast high for Sydney on Wednesday was just 16C. “That’s pretty chilly for Sydney,” said Williams. “It’s not common to have 20C and even 21C [there] even in June.
In Western Australia, however, conditions had been “well above average” for the start of winter, and that would continue into the first week.
Temperatures in the Far North and Brisbane were roughly average for the time of year.
Bom’s seasonal climate outlook published last week suggested that, in the longer term, much of Australia could expect a relatively mild winter following warm autumn conditions.
A drier than average July was forecast over much of Western Australia, South Australia and western parts of New South Wales and Victoria, with sunny days and above-average temperatures.
Rainfall from June to August was likely to be below average over the southern half of mainland Australia. Winter daytime temperatures were also forecast to be warmer than average there and in the tip of the Cape York Peninsula.Rainfall from June to August was likely to be below average over the southern half of mainland Australia. Winter daytime temperatures were also forecast to be warmer than average there and in the tip of the Cape York Peninsula.
Nighttime temperatures were expected to be warmer for southern WA and parts of south-east Australia and the tip of Cape York.Nighttime temperatures were expected to be warmer for southern WA and parts of south-east Australia and the tip of Cape York.
Jonathan Pollock, a climatologist at the bureau, said the forecast for warmer than average days applied most to the southern half of the country. “The odds get stronger the further south you go.”Jonathan Pollock, a climatologist at the bureau, said the forecast for warmer than average days applied most to the southern half of the country. “The odds get stronger the further south you go.”
He specified southern Victoria, south-western WA and all of Tasmania.He specified southern Victoria, south-western WA and all of Tasmania.
The pattern was not quite as strong for nighttime temperatures, he said, but still most evident in southern Victoria and Tasmania. “For a lot of the country, the odds are neutral – about a 50-50 likelihood.”The pattern was not quite as strong for nighttime temperatures, he said, but still most evident in southern Victoria and Tasmania. “For a lot of the country, the odds are neutral – about a 50-50 likelihood.”
Pollock said the outlook was driven by the state of the oceans either side of Australia, with warmer than average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler eastern Indian Ocean.Pollock said the outlook was driven by the state of the oceans either side of Australia, with warmer than average tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and a cooler eastern Indian Ocean.
The likelihood of an El Niño developing was about 50-50, he said. “That sounds a bit wishy-washy, but it’s about double the chance of a normal year – there’s a one-in-four or one-in-five chance normally.”The likelihood of an El Niño developing was about 50-50, he said. “That sounds a bit wishy-washy, but it’s about double the chance of a normal year – there’s a one-in-four or one-in-five chance normally.”
An El Niño would bring with it the likelihood of below-average rainfall in eastern Australia and warmer than average daytime temperatures in the south.An El Niño would bring with it the likelihood of below-average rainfall in eastern Australia and warmer than average daytime temperatures in the south.
On Thursday, Sydney and Perth were at 17C just before 1pm AEST, the first day of winter, with respective highs of 18C and 24C anticipated.
At 13.2C, Melbourne was nearing its maximum temperature of 14C. Adelaide, at 13.3C, could expect a high of 16C.
Hobart was a whole degree warmer than Canberra at 12.1C with a forecast high of 15C, while Canberra was expected to peak at 13C.
Brisbane was nearing on its forecast max of 22C at 20.4C while Darwin had passed 28C towards a forecast high of 32C.