Just when you thought the neat left-right divide was over, two-party politics is back
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Version 0 of 1. The referendum somehow seems a lot more than a year ago, and some of the debates that erupted back then seem a little tired too. As the dust settled, analysis focused on the irrelevance of left-right polarisation to the emerging new politics. Dividing lines had arisen based on geography, education and attitudes that often paid little heed to traditional party allegiances. The predominance of Ukip-style populism on the one hand, coupled with the re-emergence of passionately held liberal values on the other, spoke of a fragmentation that threw much about our politics into question. It is a paradox then, that at the same time as this apparent shift away from a traditional left-right axis, we have also seen the Labour and Conservative parties achieve a projected combined vote share of more than 80%. These are levels not seen since the 1980s, reversing a decline in two-party political hegemony that had seen their joint share of the vote drop from some 90% in the 1950s to below 65% in recent years. This is partly explained by the Brexit frame for the 2017 election – and the fact that, arguably, the Conservative party has now adopted much of Ukip’s positioning on this issue, with Theresa May’s continued assertion that “Brexit means Brexit” and “no deal is better than a bad deal”. Our BritainThinks Brexit Diaries project suggests that 37% of the population fall into a group we call the “Die-hards”, who enthusiastically support Brexit. Many of these are former Ukip voters but now lean towards the Conservatives, buoyed up by May’s pronouncements. The Brexit frame also offers some explanation for the failure of the Lib Dem vote to recover. Our Brexit Diaries work suggests that 67% of the population either enthusiastically or reluctantly accept Brexit. There is very little appetite for the second referendum that is the centrepiece of the Lib Dem manifesto (and much confusion, with most presuming it means a rerun of June 2016, rather than the proposed referendum on terms). However, the Brexit frame gives this election another emphasis: leadership. Here again, the two also-ran parties are found wanting. Ukip has not recovered from the loss of its most charismatic performer, Nigel Farage. Few in our focus groups could name Paul Nuttall, and even those who could knew nothing about him. Tim Farron has also made little impact. A small minority recognised his photograph in focus groups as recently as last week. The Lib Dems have not had time or space to rebrand themselves following their period in government, on which the public judge them very harshly indeed. When focus groups are asked what would be the worst possible outcome on 8 June, many voters say 'coalition' This deeply held, negative view of the 2010-5 coalition government has also fuelled polarisation. The backdrop of Brexit has, as Theresa May gambled, provided an imperative for strong government, meaning the clear dominance of one party over another. When focus groups are asked what would be the worst possible outcome on 8 June, many voters say “coalition”, believing that the resulting divergence of views would mean weakness and a lack of bargaining clout. As one voter put it the week after the election was called, “This is no time for a coalition – we need a government with a big majority to go into the negotiations and get the best out.” The picture in Scotland is similar, although a different kind of two-party politics is playing out. There, the Labour party, once all-powerful, now barely gets a look-in. Meanwhile the Conservatives have emerged as the true voice of opposition, especially for unionists who believe that, under Ruth Davidson’s leadership, the detoxified and reinvigorated party is doing a reasonable job of holding the SNP to account, while Labour is weak and ineffectual. In England, though, we seem to have returned to an old-school binary choice as smaller parties disappear. The Tories’ vote share, though somewhat eroded by a less than dazzling campaign, is set to be the best they have achieved since 1987. At the same time, Labour is polling at about 35% – a figure last seen in 2005. And, as the two main parties hoover up the smaller parties’ support, their dividing lines have become more marked than we have seen for years. At least the voters can no longer claim that “all parties are the same” when they go to the polls next week. |