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'Polls always overestimate Labour': your general election predictions 'Polls always overestimate Labour': your general election predictions
(35 minutes later)
The Conservatives will win the general election with a majority of 20 to 30 seats - according to our readers. The Conservatives will win the general election with a majority of 20 to 30 seats – according to our readers.
You heard it here first.You heard it here first.
With polls - which have been wrong before - showing a tightening of the race, readers who responded to our callout were more sceptical of the Labour surge. With polls – which have been wrong before – showing a tightening of the race, readers who responded to our callout were more sceptical of the Labour surge.
45% predicted a Conservative win, 32% a shock Labour victory, and 23% a hung parliament. Of respondents 45% predicted a Conservative win, 32% a shock Labour victory, and 23% a hung parliament.
Below, we share four of the scenarios our readers deemed most likely.Below, we share four of the scenarios our readers deemed most likely.
1) Conservatives win, increase their majority to 20-30 seats1) Conservatives win, increase their majority to 20-30 seats
I feel that the more people are seeing of Jeremy Corbyn, the more they realise he is more competent and capable than the press have made him out to be. This, along with Theresa May’s weak performance over the course of her election campaign and the positive public perception of some of the policies in the Labour manifesto, are causing the polls to narrow.I feel that the more people are seeing of Jeremy Corbyn, the more they realise he is more competent and capable than the press have made him out to be. This, along with Theresa May’s weak performance over the course of her election campaign and the positive public perception of some of the policies in the Labour manifesto, are causing the polls to narrow.
I do not think there is enough time for Labour’s current momentum to see them win a majority, so I think the Conservatives will win a slightly increased majority of 30 seats - not the landslide Theresa May was expecting to begin with. I think a small increase in the Conservative’s majority will be a pyrrhic victory for May.I do not think there is enough time for Labour’s current momentum to see them win a majority, so I think the Conservatives will win a slightly increased majority of 30 seats - not the landslide Theresa May was expecting to begin with. I think a small increase in the Conservative’s majority will be a pyrrhic victory for May.
Harrison Prentice, BirminghamHarrison Prentice, Birmingham
2) Tory landslide: Conservatives win by over 100 seats2) Tory landslide: Conservatives win by over 100 seats
The current poll numbers are soft and unreliable. On the questions that really matter (leadership and the economy) Corbyn and McDonnell still lag too far behind. Jeremy has had a good election mainly because our party has accidentally played the expectations game really well.The current poll numbers are soft and unreliable. On the questions that really matter (leadership and the economy) Corbyn and McDonnell still lag too far behind. Jeremy has had a good election mainly because our party has accidentally played the expectations game really well.
We made Corbyn look so bad that even a mediocre performance looks good. But people’s minds have not fundamentally changed on him. Any progress we have made in this election has been down to Theresa May and the Tories (sorry, Theresa May’s Team) making some huge strategic and policy mistakes.We made Corbyn look so bad that even a mediocre performance looks good. But people’s minds have not fundamentally changed on him. Any progress we have made in this election has been down to Theresa May and the Tories (sorry, Theresa May’s Team) making some huge strategic and policy mistakes.
Ben, LiverpoolBen, Liverpool
3) Hung parliament3) Hung parliament
Things are moving fast but Theresa May’s campaign has been disastrous. Jeremy Corbyn is finally getting real exposure and is impressing. It’s probably too big a task for Labour to achieve a majority, especially as most UKIP deserters will vote Tory. People are going to vote tactically which will help the Lib Dems gain seats in the West Country and in London. Ultimately Theresa May’s campaign was negative and there is a sense that the electorate are rediscovering a sense of optimism.Things are moving fast but Theresa May’s campaign has been disastrous. Jeremy Corbyn is finally getting real exposure and is impressing. It’s probably too big a task for Labour to achieve a majority, especially as most UKIP deserters will vote Tory. People are going to vote tactically which will help the Lib Dems gain seats in the West Country and in London. Ultimately Theresa May’s campaign was negative and there is a sense that the electorate are rediscovering a sense of optimism.
Hilary Strong, HampshireHilary Strong, Hampshire
4) Labour to win with a small majority4) Labour to win with a small majority
It’s a repeat of the US election. The establishment will lose because people are sick of it. They can see what many years of Tory governance has done to them. Corbyn is a populist making a lot of sense and pushing for policies that most people want for their families.It’s a repeat of the US election. The establishment will lose because people are sick of it. They can see what many years of Tory governance has done to them. Corbyn is a populist making a lot of sense and pushing for policies that most people want for their families.
Alison Jacobs, ExeterAlison Jacobs, Exeter
Agree? Wildly disagree? Share your own predictions in the comments below. We can come back next week and see if you were right.Agree? Wildly disagree? Share your own predictions in the comments below. We can come back next week and see if you were right.