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Theresa May, Despite U.K. Election Setback, Will Form a Minority Government Theresa May, Despite U.K. Election Setback, Will Form a Minority Government
(about 1 hour later)
LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain, smarting from a humbling snap-election defeat that cost her Conservative Party its governing majority, said on Friday that her party would stay in power by forming a minority government with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain, smarting from a humbling snap-election defeat that cost her Conservative Party its governing majority, said on Friday that her party would stay in power by forming a minority government with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.
“What the country needs more than ever is certainty, and having secured the largest number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the general election, it is clear that only the Conservative and Unionist Party has the legitimacy and the ability to provide that certainty, by commanding a majority in the House of Commons,” Mrs. May said outside No. 10 Downing Street, using the full name of her party. “As we do, we will continue to work with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party in particular.”“What the country needs more than ever is certainty, and having secured the largest number of votes and the greatest number of seats in the general election, it is clear that only the Conservative and Unionist Party has the legitimacy and the ability to provide that certainty, by commanding a majority in the House of Commons,” Mrs. May said outside No. 10 Downing Street, using the full name of her party. “As we do, we will continue to work with our friends and allies, in the Democratic Unionist Party in particular.”
Mrs. May had called an election three years early in the hope of winning a stronger mandate as Britain prepares for two years of negotiations over its withdrawal from the European Union, but voters did not reward that gamble. Instead, they produced a hung Parliament — one in which no party has an outright majority in the 650-seat House of Commons. Mrs. May had called an election three years early in the hope of winning a stronger mandate as Britain prepares for two years of negotiations over its withdrawal from the European Union, but voters did not reward her gamble. Instead, they produced a hung Parliament — one in which no party has an outright majority in the 650-seat House of Commons.
The fractured voting — which saw strong gains by the largest opposition party, Labour, and modest gains by a smaller party, the centrist Liberal Democrats — was a further indication of stark political divisions in Britain, days before formal negotiations over withdrawal from the European Union are scheduled to begin in Brussels.The fractured voting — which saw strong gains by the largest opposition party, Labour, and modest gains by a smaller party, the centrist Liberal Democrats — was a further indication of stark political divisions in Britain, days before formal negotiations over withdrawal from the European Union are scheduled to begin in Brussels.
Despite the loss of at least 12 seats for the Conservatives, Mrs. May will try to form a working majority with the support of the Democratic Unionist Party, which won 10 seats on Thursday. With the 318 Conservative seats plus the D.U.P. seats, Mrs. May would have 328 votes — just above the 326 needed for a majority. Mrs. May confirmed her plan to form a minority government after a meeting with Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace. The uncertain outcome in Britain immediately prompted speculation that the start of negotiations might be delayed, or that the talks could drag for longer than two years, as scheduled — speculation that European officials, in public at least, tried to tamp down. “I don’t think we should talk about some prolongation of the deadline,” said the Czech prime minister, Bohuslav Sobotka.
The D.U.P., a historically Protestant party that seeks to maintain Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom, has close ties with the Conservatives, and it supported Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. It was unclear what price the D.U.P. might exact for its support. “I certainly think that there will be contact made over the weekend,” said Arlene Foster, the party’s leader, “but I think it is too soon to talk about what we’re going to do.” The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he was ready for talks to begin immediately. “We are waiting for visitors coming from London,” he said. “I hope that we will not experience a further delay in the conclusion of these negotiations.”
Despite the loss of at least 12 seats for the Conservatives, Mrs. May will try to form a working majority with the Democratic Unionist Party, which won 10 seats on Thursday. With 318 Conservative seats plus the D.U.P. seats, Mrs. May would have 328 votes — just above the 326 needed for a majority. Mrs. May confirmed her plan to form a minority government after a meeting with Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham Palace.
The D.U.P., a historically Protestant party that seeks to maintain Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom, has close ties with the Conservatives, and it supported Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. “I certainly think that there will be contact made over the weekend,” said Arlene Foster, the party’s leader, “but I think it is too soon to talk about what we’re going to do.”
There is a precedent for this situation: The Ulster Unionist Party, another faction from Northern Ireland, helped shore up the government of John Major, a Conservative prime minister, from 1992 to 1997.There is a precedent for this situation: The Ulster Unionist Party, another faction from Northern Ireland, helped shore up the government of John Major, a Conservative prime minister, from 1992 to 1997.
In some respects, the election on Thursday also resembled the one in 2010, when the Conservatives won the most seats in a general election but did not have a majority of seats. They formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats. In some respects, the election on Thursday also resembled the one in 2010, when the Conservatives won the most seats in a general election but did not have a majority of seats. Under David Cameron, Mrs. May’s predecessor, they formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats.
In a coalition government, the junior partner takes ministerial seats, is part of day-to-day decisions by the cabinet and shares a platform with the governing party. In a minority government, in contrast, a smaller party agrees to support the governing party in votes on legislation, but it would not necessarily be part of the leadership. Whatever emerges will most likely be more fragile. In a coalition, the junior partner takes ministerial seats, is part of day-to-day decisions by the cabinet and shares a platform with the governing party. In a minority government, in contrast, a smaller party merely agrees to support the governing party in votes on legislation, but is not necessarily be part of the leadership. It was unclear on Friday what price the D.U.P. might exact from the Conservatives for its support.
Whatever emerges will most likely be more fragile than the coalition formed in 2010 by David Cameron, Mrs. May’s predecessor as prime minister, which lasted for five years. Whatever emerges will most likely be more fragile than the coalition formed in 2010 by Mr. Cameron, which lasted five years.
And even if Mrs. May were to survive in the medium term, her authority has been badly damaged. She is certain to face demands from lawmakers in her own party that she change her leadership style and consult more widely. Nigel Evans, a senior Conservative lawmaker, blamed the party’s so-called manifesto, or platform, over which Mrs. May had to reverse course within days, for the election failure.And even if Mrs. May were to survive in the medium term, her authority has been badly damaged. She is certain to face demands from lawmakers in her own party that she change her leadership style and consult more widely. Nigel Evans, a senior Conservative lawmaker, blamed the party’s so-called manifesto, or platform, over which Mrs. May had to reverse course within days, for the election failure.
Mr. Evans suggested that divisive proposals on the financing of long-term care for older adults — from which Mrs. May had to backtrack — would not have been included in the manifesto if Mrs. May had consulted more widely. “We didn’t shoot ourselves in the foot, we shot ourselves in the head,” he told the BBC.Mr. Evans suggested that divisive proposals on the financing of long-term care for older adults — from which Mrs. May had to backtrack — would not have been included in the manifesto if Mrs. May had consulted more widely. “We didn’t shoot ourselves in the foot, we shot ourselves in the head,” he told the BBC.
Paradoxically, the Conservative Party actually increased its share of the total vote from 2015 — when it won a commanding majority in Parliament — but not by enough in important constituencies. Under Britain’s first-past-the-post system, what matters is not a party’s share of the overall vote, but simply who places first in any given constituency. Paradoxically, the Conservative Party actually increased its share of the total vote from 2015 — when it won a commanding majority in Parliament — but not by enough in key constituencies. Under Britain’s first-past-the-post system, what matters is not a party’s share of the overall vote, but simply who places first in any given constituency.
The share of the vote captured by Labour on Thursday — 40 percent — was significantly higher than what many parties that have formed governments in the past have won.The share of the vote captured by Labour on Thursday — 40 percent — was significantly higher than what many parties that have formed governments in the past have won.
Analysts cautioned that this may reflect the volatility of British politics in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and that it might not point to a long-lasting revival in the fortunes of the two main parties. For Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party, the election was a big success. He outperformed expectations as a campaigner and his party saw a large rise in its share of the vote, even though it came behind the Conservatives. Though he remains unlikely to become prime minister, Mr. Corbyn’s position as leader of Labour has been secured, despite the hostility of many lawmakers in his own party.
In particular, the Conservatives and Labour have benefited from the collapse of votes for the right-wing, populist U.K. Independence Party, and the failure of the centrist Liberal Democrats to make a breakthrough. There was speculation on Friday that Mrs. May would no longer have a parliamentary majority for her preferred strategy of making a clean break with the European Union, which would include leaving its single market and customs union.
“Two-party politics in the 1950s and 1960s was supported by an intellectual, cultural, infrastructure of class alignment and partisan alignment,” said Philip Cowley, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. “These parties were class-based, people felt strongly affiliated to them, they voted for the same party year in year out.” During the referendum campaign last year, leaders of the Democratic Unionist Party favored leaving the bloc, but they also want to keep tariff-free trade with their neighbor, Ireland, and they want a “comprehensive free trade and customs agreement” with the European Union — a formulation that sounds close to remaining in the customs union.
That was not true this time, Mr. Cowley noted, and by the time of the next election, votes could “churn again, back to another majority party or off to a minor party.” The Labour Party wants to keep as much access as possible to the single market. Roland Rudd, a senior figure in the “Remain” campaign last year, said that, after Thursday’s election, Parliament may be more pro-European.
The focus of British politics quickly shifted to Northern Ireland on Friday, where the D.U.P. is suddenly poised to act as kingmaker. “We now have, for the first time since the referendum, an opportunity to have a much better relationship with the European Union,” said Mr. Rudd, the brother of Home Secretary Amber Rudd, who narrowly won re-election on Thursday. “A close arrangement is back on the table.”
Brendan Halligan, chairman of the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, said that a D.U.P. role in the British government could unsettle the intricate peace arrangements that make up the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which largely ended the sectarian violence in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles. The government in Northern Ireland is currently divided because of a deadlock between the D.U.P. and its republican rival, Sinn Fein. Eric Pickles, a former chairman of the Conservative Party, said that while Mrs. May was likely to stay on as prime minister, the government’s negotiating strategy might have to be refined.
“I think we now have to build a grand coalition of support,” he said. “I don’t see how realistic it is not to be leaving the single market and the customs union — but there is leaving and leaving, and it is going to be up to negotiations.”
In Northern Ireland, meanwhile, the prospect of the D.U.P. acting as kingmaker raised other concerns.
Brendan Halligan, chairman of the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, said that a D.U.P. role in the British government could unsettle the intricate peace arrangements that make up the Good Friday Agreement of 1998, which largely ended the sectarian violence in Northern Ireland known as the Troubles.
The Northern Ireland Assembly, known as Stormont, is divided because of a deadlock between the D.U.P. and its republican rival, Sinn Fein.
“It will be a terrible dilemma for a new Tory government: The more they accommodate the D.U.P., the more they put out Sinn Fein, and the more they will come into disagreement with the Dublin government over north-south relationships,” Mr. Halligan predicted.“It will be a terrible dilemma for a new Tory government: The more they accommodate the D.U.P., the more they put out Sinn Fein, and the more they will come into disagreement with the Dublin government over north-south relationships,” Mr. Halligan predicted.
He said of the D.U.P.: “Their only real aim is to protect the union with Britain and prevent any drift towards a special status for Northern Ireland. They will put a stop to Sinn Fein’s attempts to push for that. That will draw a reaction from Sinn Fein, a knock-on effect in terms of forming a new power-sharing executive in Stormont.”He said of the D.U.P.: “Their only real aim is to protect the union with Britain and prevent any drift towards a special status for Northern Ireland. They will put a stop to Sinn Fein’s attempts to push for that. That will draw a reaction from Sinn Fein, a knock-on effect in terms of forming a new power-sharing executive in Stormont.”
Making matters even more complicated, the Labour leader, Mr. Corbyn, and a top ally, John McDonnell, have in the past expressed support for the Irish republican movement, and in particular for Sinn Fein and its leader, Gerry Adams. That support makes the D.U.P. particularly eager to block anything that could lead to Mr. Corbyn’s becoming prime minister.
Andy Pollak, a former director of the Center for Cross Border Studies in Belfast, said he feared the consequences for Irish politics.Andy Pollak, a former director of the Center for Cross Border Studies in Belfast, said he feared the consequences for Irish politics.
“The D.U.P. will always take the hardest of hard lines when it comes to Brexit or any slight compromise towards the republicans,” he said. “It’s all bad now. I don’t know what they will demand from the Tories for their support, other than a hard line on Brexit. The chances of a return to power sharing in the North are now lessened further. A lot of the D.U.P. were never happy with power sharing with Sinn Fein anyway.”“The D.U.P. will always take the hardest of hard lines when it comes to Brexit or any slight compromise towards the republicans,” he said. “It’s all bad now. I don’t know what they will demand from the Tories for their support, other than a hard line on Brexit. The chances of a return to power sharing in the North are now lessened further. A lot of the D.U.P. were never happy with power sharing with Sinn Fein anyway.”