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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| Is this the end for Ukip? | Is this the end for Ukip? |
| (7 months later) | |
| The party has had a disastrous election, but its activists will feel re-energised by the prospect of hard Brexit under threat | |
| Fri 9 Jun 2017 14.44 BST | |
| Last modified on Sun 25 Jun 2017 19.46 BST | |
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| This has been a disastrous election for Ukip. Its vote share puts it at an even lower level than in 2005. In the 10 seats in which it achieved its best results in 2015, it has averaged only 8% of the vote this time around, compared with 32% two years ago. On top of all this, it now faces a leadership election to choose its fourth different leader in two years, after the resignation of Paul Nuttall. Nevertheless, while its support has collapsed, Ukip’s loyal band of activists will surely feel their work is not yet done, given the uncertainty the election result poses for the Brexit process. | This has been a disastrous election for Ukip. Its vote share puts it at an even lower level than in 2005. In the 10 seats in which it achieved its best results in 2015, it has averaged only 8% of the vote this time around, compared with 32% two years ago. On top of all this, it now faces a leadership election to choose its fourth different leader in two years, after the resignation of Paul Nuttall. Nevertheless, while its support has collapsed, Ukip’s loyal band of activists will surely feel their work is not yet done, given the uncertainty the election result poses for the Brexit process. |
| The past decade has been something of a rollercoaster ride for the party. A sharp rise in its electoral fortunes took place during the 2010-15 parliament when its vote share increased by more than four times across the two elections. It finished first in the 2014 European elections, ending up as the fourth-largest national party in the European parliament. In the same year, it gained two seats in the Commons after Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless resigned their seats, left the Conservatives and stood for Ukip. | The past decade has been something of a rollercoaster ride for the party. A sharp rise in its electoral fortunes took place during the 2010-15 parliament when its vote share increased by more than four times across the two elections. It finished first in the 2014 European elections, ending up as the fourth-largest national party in the European parliament. In the same year, it gained two seats in the Commons after Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless resigned their seats, left the Conservatives and stood for Ukip. |
| By 2016 the party had nearly 400 councillors, having taken a more concerted approach to winning office at local government level. But the period since the Brexit referendum has seen Ukip struggling to find a clear location in the UK’s party system. | By 2016 the party had nearly 400 councillors, having taken a more concerted approach to winning office at local government level. But the period since the Brexit referendum has seen Ukip struggling to find a clear location in the UK’s party system. |
| How has Ukip ended up in this position? First, it was always going to be difficult for a party whose central aim was getting the UK out of the EU to survive in a post-Brexit referendum environment. To the extent that Ukip’s electoral support is soft, retaining the nearly 4m votes it achieved in 2015 was never going to be easy. This is compounded by other problems. The electoral system creates high barriers to entry to the House of Commons. Ukip suffered as a result of this in 2015, winning many more votes and many fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats. | How has Ukip ended up in this position? First, it was always going to be difficult for a party whose central aim was getting the UK out of the EU to survive in a post-Brexit referendum environment. To the extent that Ukip’s electoral support is soft, retaining the nearly 4m votes it achieved in 2015 was never going to be easy. This is compounded by other problems. The electoral system creates high barriers to entry to the House of Commons. Ukip suffered as a result of this in 2015, winning many more votes and many fewer seats than the Liberal Democrats. |
| Its inability to build a base of MPs means it did not have a domestic parliamentary platform from which to position itself ahead of this election. If mainstream parties take on Ukip’s central policy aim, as they have since the referendum, then voters have little incentive to risk voting for a party that is unlikely to win seats. | Its inability to build a base of MPs means it did not have a domestic parliamentary platform from which to position itself ahead of this election. If mainstream parties take on Ukip’s central policy aim, as they have since the referendum, then voters have little incentive to risk voting for a party that is unlikely to win seats. |
| Second, it has failed to recover from the absence of a charismatic leader in the form of Nigel Farage. What is remarkable about Nuttall’s leadership ratings is the comparatively high numbers of voters who have no opinion on him (29% in Ipsos-Mori’s April leadership ratings poll). Among those voters with a view, support for Nuttall declined considerably after the poorly managed byelection in Stoke on Trent Central. His failure to improve on the 2015 result in Boston and Skegness (where the party achieved 34% of the vote in 2015) and his resignation from the leadership leaves the party rudderless and again without representation in the Commons. | Second, it has failed to recover from the absence of a charismatic leader in the form of Nigel Farage. What is remarkable about Nuttall’s leadership ratings is the comparatively high numbers of voters who have no opinion on him (29% in Ipsos-Mori’s April leadership ratings poll). Among those voters with a view, support for Nuttall declined considerably after the poorly managed byelection in Stoke on Trent Central. His failure to improve on the 2015 result in Boston and Skegness (where the party achieved 34% of the vote in 2015) and his resignation from the leadership leaves the party rudderless and again without representation in the Commons. |
| Third, Ukip has struggled with internal tensions for much of its life. Six months after it won its first seats in the European parliament (1999), the party’s then leader, Michael Holmes, along with the entire national executive committee (NEC), was voted out of office at a fractious meeting. The arrival of television presenter Robert Kilroy-Silk helped Ukip win a much higher vote share at the 2004 European elections, but Kilroy-Silk’s failed leadership bid led to him quitting only months later. | Third, Ukip has struggled with internal tensions for much of its life. Six months after it won its first seats in the European parliament (1999), the party’s then leader, Michael Holmes, along with the entire national executive committee (NEC), was voted out of office at a fractious meeting. The arrival of television presenter Robert Kilroy-Silk helped Ukip win a much higher vote share at the 2004 European elections, but Kilroy-Silk’s failed leadership bid led to him quitting only months later. |
| Having taken over the leadership in 2006, Farage resigned three years later to concentrate on fighting John Bercow’s seat of Buckingham at the 2010 Westminster election. He was back again later that year after the party – under Lord Pearson – managed only a one-point rise in vote share compared with its 2005 performance. Even after its success in the 2015 election, Ukip again experienced tensions as Farage submitted his resignation only for the NEC to reject it. He resigned again after the referendum campaign but his successor, Diane James, left the job after only 18 days, saying she lacked authority to carry out the changes she wanted to make. An alleged altercation in the European parliament between two of the party’s MEPs shortly after this cannot have helped public perceptions of the party. | Having taken over the leadership in 2006, Farage resigned three years later to concentrate on fighting John Bercow’s seat of Buckingham at the 2010 Westminster election. He was back again later that year after the party – under Lord Pearson – managed only a one-point rise in vote share compared with its 2005 performance. Even after its success in the 2015 election, Ukip again experienced tensions as Farage submitted his resignation only for the NEC to reject it. He resigned again after the referendum campaign but his successor, Diane James, left the job after only 18 days, saying she lacked authority to carry out the changes she wanted to make. An alleged altercation in the European parliament between two of the party’s MEPs shortly after this cannot have helped public perceptions of the party. |
| Despite these difficulties, loyal Ukip supporters will not be without motivation. The surprising results of this election introduce uncertainty for the Brexit process. Many of Ukip’s activists are highly dedicated to the Brexit cause. They are likely to feel the party’s work is not yet done. It seems unlikely their enthusiasm will be enough to generate a widespread resurgence of the party, but until the Brexit process is clearly on track, they will surely keep pushing. | Despite these difficulties, loyal Ukip supporters will not be without motivation. The surprising results of this election introduce uncertainty for the Brexit process. Many of Ukip’s activists are highly dedicated to the Brexit cause. They are likely to feel the party’s work is not yet done. It seems unlikely their enthusiasm will be enough to generate a widespread resurgence of the party, but until the Brexit process is clearly on track, they will surely keep pushing. |
| UK Independence party (Ukip) | |
| Opinion | |
| General election 2017 | |
| Paul Nuttall | |
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