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| Lynton Crosby isn't a genius – and five other lessons the election taught us | Lynton Crosby isn't a genius – and five other lessons the election taught us |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| Well then. Nobody knows anything any more, do they? Michael Gove was mocked for saying that everyone was sick of experts (or thereabouts), and I’ve always been sympathetic to that mocking, but it is starting to seem as though – in political predictions at least – he has a point. There’s so much received wisdom about how to win a key marginal, and what will alienate the middle ground, and why you ignore this demographic or that at your peril. And yet, after the shock of Thursday, none of that received wisdom seems to be so wise any more. | Well then. Nobody knows anything any more, do they? Michael Gove was mocked for saying that everyone was sick of experts (or thereabouts), and I’ve always been sympathetic to that mocking, but it is starting to seem as though – in political predictions at least – he has a point. There’s so much received wisdom about how to win a key marginal, and what will alienate the middle ground, and why you ignore this demographic or that at your peril. And yet, after the shock of Thursday, none of that received wisdom seems to be so wise any more. |
| 1. Young people do turn out | 1. Young people do turn out |
| I’ll admit it. I was sceptical. Despite seeing evidence of great enthusiasm for Corbyn among the young (we all saw it: rallies, fashion, grime4corbyn), I was cynical about whether that would translate to turnout. I thought it would be bigger, but maybe not huge. We don’t know just how high the 18-24 turnout was yet, and won’t do so for around a week, so don’t believe that 72% stat doing the rounds on social media. But it’s clear that young people flocked to the polls more than ever before, breaking a trend that has existed in UK politics since – well, for ever. Let’s hope that this enthusiasm among young people lasts. As Laura Kuenssberg said on the BBC last night: “This is the election where young people started voting. And it may seem that for all the political parties the demographics of who they have to please might be shifting.” | I’ll admit it. I was sceptical. Despite seeing evidence of great enthusiasm for Corbyn among the young (we all saw it: rallies, fashion, grime4corbyn), I was cynical about whether that would translate to turnout. I thought it would be bigger, but maybe not huge. We don’t know just how high the 18-24 turnout was yet, and won’t do so for around a week, so don’t believe that 72% stat doing the rounds on social media. But it’s clear that young people flocked to the polls more than ever before, breaking a trend that has existed in UK politics since – well, for ever. Let’s hope that this enthusiasm among young people lasts. As Laura Kuenssberg said on the BBC last night: “This is the election where young people started voting. And it may seem that for all the political parties the demographics of who they have to please might be shifting.” |
| "This is the election young people started voting." 👍👍✊️ And wouldn't this be wonderful? -> #BBCelection #Election2017 pic.twitter.com/ycfr2wC6zH | "This is the election young people started voting." 👍👍✊️ And wouldn't this be wonderful? -> #BBCelection #Election2017 pic.twitter.com/ycfr2wC6zH |
| 2. Newspapers don’t rule all | 2. Newspapers don’t rule all |
| Well, well, well. Poor Dacre. Poor Murdoch. Paul Dacre, the Daily Mail’s editor and Theresa May’s cheerleader, has seen his savage, relentless campaign against Labour fall flat. This is a paper that the day before the polls ran 13 pages of febrile anti-Labour content, and splashed: “APOLOGISTS FOR TERROR” on page one. This is a lot, in the wake of two terrorist attacks. It’s a lot, whatever you think of Corbyn’s associations in the past, to scream all of that about a man who stood on a stage in Manchester at a memorial for the dead. In other words: read the room, Mail. The hyperbole and frenzied attacks may well have been too much for some people to stomach. Ditto the Sun’s consistent bile towards Diane Abbott, which echoed the Tory party’s rhetoric. (Murdoch was said to be so incensed at how the election played out he stormed out from an office.) | Well, well, well. Poor Dacre. Poor Murdoch. Paul Dacre, the Daily Mail’s editor and Theresa May’s cheerleader, has seen his savage, relentless campaign against Labour fall flat. This is a paper that the day before the polls ran 13 pages of febrile anti-Labour content, and splashed: “APOLOGISTS FOR TERROR” on page one. This is a lot, in the wake of two terrorist attacks. It’s a lot, whatever you think of Corbyn’s associations in the past, to scream all of that about a man who stood on a stage in Manchester at a memorial for the dead. In other words: read the room, Mail. The hyperbole and frenzied attacks may well have been too much for some people to stomach. Ditto the Sun’s consistent bile towards Diane Abbott, which echoed the Tory party’s rhetoric. (Murdoch was said to be so incensed at how the election played out he stormed out from an office.) |
| Sure, the Mail has a circulation of 1.4 million and the Sun just under two million. I argued just the other day that having those sorts of headlines above the fold, in newsagents across the country, is a huge advantage – perhaps I was wrong. Could this be another blow to the dominance of the rightwing press? Is the grip finally weakening? | Sure, the Mail has a circulation of 1.4 million and the Sun just under two million. I argued just the other day that having those sorts of headlines above the fold, in newsagents across the country, is a huge advantage – perhaps I was wrong. Could this be another blow to the dominance of the rightwing press? Is the grip finally weakening? |
| 3. The party seen as strongest on the economy might not always win? | 3. The party seen as strongest on the economy might not always win? |
| Labour, to a certain extent historically, but especially after the Tories tried to pin the global financial crash on Brown’s administration, has been viewed as not, to coin a phrase, strong and stable on the economy. It’s always the party that is seen as the strongest on the economy, the most responsible with the purse strings that wins. And actually, that is true of this result, but who expected Labour to give such a run for its, er, money. If Corbyn’s Labour can do this well in the polls despite the voters being told every single day that he was recklessly profligate and endless talk of a “magic money tree”, then that represents a shift. (And somehow the Tories managed to get away without costing a single one of their policies, aside from the free school breakfasts, which they got massively wrong. Good one.) | Labour, to a certain extent historically, but especially after the Tories tried to pin the global financial crash on Brown’s administration, has been viewed as not, to coin a phrase, strong and stable on the economy. It’s always the party that is seen as the strongest on the economy, the most responsible with the purse strings that wins. And actually, that is true of this result, but who expected Labour to give such a run for its, er, money. If Corbyn’s Labour can do this well in the polls despite the voters being told every single day that he was recklessly profligate and endless talk of a “magic money tree”, then that represents a shift. (And somehow the Tories managed to get away without costing a single one of their policies, aside from the free school breakfasts, which they got massively wrong. Good one.) |
| 4. Lynton Crosby isn’t a strategy genius | 4. Lynton Crosby isn’t a strategy genius |
| There was a time (the worst time) that you couldn’t move for people quoting Lynton Crosby’s dead cat strategy as if it were Einstein-level genius (the theory that you throw something else into the narrative to cause distraction when the narrative is turning against you – “a dead cat on the table” being the weird RSPCA-friendly euphemism here). But Crosby has now run two disastrous, horrendously negative campaigns – Zac Goldsmith’s mayoral punt, and now 2017. Same in Australia. It turns out that siloing your candidate in warehouses, arrogantly refusing debate appearances, and launching viciously personal attacks doesn’t play great. Back to the drawing board, Lynton. | There was a time (the worst time) that you couldn’t move for people quoting Lynton Crosby’s dead cat strategy as if it were Einstein-level genius (the theory that you throw something else into the narrative to cause distraction when the narrative is turning against you – “a dead cat on the table” being the weird RSPCA-friendly euphemism here). But Crosby has now run two disastrous, horrendously negative campaigns – Zac Goldsmith’s mayoral punt, and now 2017. Same in Australia. It turns out that siloing your candidate in warehouses, arrogantly refusing debate appearances, and launching viciously personal attacks doesn’t play great. Back to the drawing board, Lynton. |
| 5. The in-crowd doesn’t know everything | 5. The in-crowd doesn’t know everything |
| The polls, mostly, were wrong. Even the exit polls underestimated Labour’s strength. The pundits were wrong. People like me didn’t think Corbyn could do this well, I admit it. Talking heads shook them, and said never in a million years. Even the politicians themselves got it wrong – until late last night, Labour itself was braced for something of a wipeout, with talk coming from aides that Labour candidates were drafting concession speeches. It’s become obvious that there’s a whole chunk of the electorate that polling, canvassing, aides and tellers aren’t picking up on. They might be hiding (shy voters fudging answers in polls, and so on), or they might be hiding in plain sight (see Corbyn’s massive online army, for instance). | The polls, mostly, were wrong. Even the exit polls underestimated Labour’s strength. The pundits were wrong. People like me didn’t think Corbyn could do this well, I admit it. Talking heads shook them, and said never in a million years. Even the politicians themselves got it wrong – until late last night, Labour itself was braced for something of a wipeout, with talk coming from aides that Labour candidates were drafting concession speeches. It’s become obvious that there’s a whole chunk of the electorate that polling, canvassing, aides and tellers aren’t picking up on. They might be hiding (shy voters fudging answers in polls, and so on), or they might be hiding in plain sight (see Corbyn’s massive online army, for instance). |
| 6. Ukip voters did not flock to the Tories | 6. Ukip voters did not flock to the Tories |
| This one is more specific to this one election, but a big surprise to many was the collapsing vote going in many cases to Labour, rather than as widely assumed, the Tories. It’s possible that some Ukippers aren’t happy with how Brexit is shaping up, but perhaps more likely that they are coming to grips with austerity. Broxbourne showed a particularly big Ukip-to-Labour swing. | This one is more specific to this one election, but a big surprise to many was the collapsing vote going in many cases to Labour, rather than as widely assumed, the Tories. It’s possible that some Ukippers aren’t happy with how Brexit is shaping up, but perhaps more likely that they are coming to grips with austerity. Broxbourne showed a particularly big Ukip-to-Labour swing. |
| All of this means it is possible that pollsters, politicians, journalists and staffers have been relied on too much to fortune-tell, and that the political analysis model is broken. But, hey, what would I know? | All of this means it is possible that pollsters, politicians, journalists and staffers have been relied on too much to fortune-tell, and that the political analysis model is broken. But, hey, what would I know? |
| General election 2017 | General election 2017 |
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