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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/jun/14/pound-uk-unemployment-real-wages-us-interest-rate-decision-business-live
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| US inflation falls ahead of Fed meeting, while UK's real wage squeeze worsens - live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.59pm BST | |
| 16:59 | |
| Six months of #OPEC and Russian output cuts, and WTI is now under $45 a barrel. This isn't going as Riyadh and Moscow had it planned. #OOTT pic.twitter.com/W3EUZ28EDp | |
| 4.18pm BST | 4.18pm BST |
| 16:18 | 16:18 |
| On oil, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: | On oil, Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: |
| Oil prices are in freefall again, thanks to a second consecutive failure of forecasters on the oil inventories front. Stockpiles dropped by much less than forecast, although at least they got the direction right this week, after last week’s shock rise in inventories. What is particularly noticeable is that oil production continues to rise, even as prices fall. It looks like everyone is keen to get as much sold before another rout in prices. WTI now trades at its lowest level in six weeks, with little sign of a turnaround in place. | Oil prices are in freefall again, thanks to a second consecutive failure of forecasters on the oil inventories front. Stockpiles dropped by much less than forecast, although at least they got the direction right this week, after last week’s shock rise in inventories. What is particularly noticeable is that oil production continues to rise, even as prices fall. It looks like everyone is keen to get as much sold before another rout in prices. WTI now trades at its lowest level in six weeks, with little sign of a turnaround in place. |
| 3.52pm BST | 3.52pm BST |
| 15:52 | 15:52 |
| Seems there's only one thing that matters in the oil market these days #oott pic.twitter.com/2CFx2TUG1X | Seems there's only one thing that matters in the oil market these days #oott pic.twitter.com/2CFx2TUG1X |
| Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate are now down more than 2%. | Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate are now down more than 2%. |
| 3.42pm BST | 3.42pm BST |
| 15:42 | 15:42 |
| Oil price slides after US crude stocks fall by less than expected | Oil price slides after US crude stocks fall by less than expected |
| The weekly US oil figures have shown a smaller than forecast fall in crude stocks. | The weekly US oil figures have shown a smaller than forecast fall in crude stocks. |
| The Energy Information Admistration said crude stocks fell by 1.66m barrels last week to 511.55m, lower than the 2.7m drop expected by the market and indicating weaker than expected demand. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.1m barrels compared to forecasts of a 0.5m decline. | The Energy Information Admistration said crude stocks fell by 1.66m barrels last week to 511.55m, lower than the 2.7m drop expected by the market and indicating weaker than expected demand. Gasoline stocks rose by 2.1m barrels compared to forecasts of a 0.5m decline. |
| Crude prices, which have been buffetted by concerns that Opec’s output cuts were having little effect given rising US production, have seen their losses increase following the figures. | Crude prices, which have been buffetted by concerns that Opec’s output cuts were having little effect given rising US production, have seen their losses increase following the figures. |
| Brent, down 0.88% before the US data, has now fallen 1.64% to $47.92 a barrel. West Texas Intermediated has seen its losses increase from 0.8% to 1.89%. | Brent, down 0.88% before the US data, has now fallen 1.64% to $47.92 a barrel. West Texas Intermediated has seen its losses increase from 0.8% to 1.89%. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.56pm BST | at 3.56pm BST |
| 3.20pm BST | 3.20pm BST |
| 15:20 | 15:20 |
| Back with the dollar, and it has fallen to its lowest level against the euro since the start of November. The single currency currently sits at $1.1286, up 0.64%, after reaching $1.1295. | Back with the dollar, and it has fallen to its lowest level against the euro since the start of November. The single currency currently sits at $1.1286, up 0.64%, after reaching $1.1295. |
| Bloomberg Dollar Index in free fall following weak US econ numbers. Drops to the lowest level since Oct2016 on lower rate hike expectations. pic.twitter.com/YYLH7YOM6C | Bloomberg Dollar Index in free fall following weak US econ numbers. Drops to the lowest level since Oct2016 on lower rate hike expectations. pic.twitter.com/YYLH7YOM6C |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 3.22pm BST | at 3.22pm BST |
| 2.42pm BST | 2.42pm BST |
| 14:42 | 14:42 |
| Dow hits new high as Wall Street opens | Dow hits new high as Wall Street opens |
| With the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s view on further interest rate rises in the wake of the day’s weak data, Wall Street has made a mixed start. | With the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s view on further interest rate rises in the wake of the day’s weak data, Wall Street has made a mixed start. |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new peak of 21,354 initially, before falling back to 21,334, a gain of around 6 points. The S&P 500 edged up 0.12% at the open, while the Nasdaq Composite was unchanged. | The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new peak of 21,354 initially, before falling back to 21,334, a gain of around 6 points. The S&P 500 edged up 0.12% at the open, while the Nasdaq Composite was unchanged. |
| 2.36pm BST | 2.36pm BST |
| 14:36 | 14:36 |
| Jasper Lawler, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, also believes the weak US data casts doubts on further Federal Reserve rate hikes after today: | Jasper Lawler, senior market analyst at London Capital Group, also believes the weak US data casts doubts on further Federal Reserve rate hikes after today: |
| A double dose of soft economic data sent the US dollar plunging and gold rallying before the Federal Reserve rate decision. Slowing inflation and flat retail sales add to the growing sense that today’s meeting could see the last US rate rise this year. | A double dose of soft economic data sent the US dollar plunging and gold rallying before the Federal Reserve rate decision. Slowing inflation and flat retail sales add to the growing sense that today’s meeting could see the last US rate rise this year. |
| We would be in a state of shock if the Federal Reserve didn’t lift interest rates at its meeting later today.... Movement in the dollar will depend on what kind of signal policymakers give about the next hike, possibly in September. The US economy has not been firing on all cylinders but the Fed risks losing credibility if it backed off from a rate hike when it’s been so heavily intonated. A ‘dovish hike’ seems most appropriate, which may not be enough to generate enthusiasm for the dollar. | We would be in a state of shock if the Federal Reserve didn’t lift interest rates at its meeting later today.... Movement in the dollar will depend on what kind of signal policymakers give about the next hike, possibly in September. The US economy has not been firing on all cylinders but the Fed risks losing credibility if it backed off from a rate hike when it’s been so heavily intonated. A ‘dovish hike’ seems most appropriate, which may not be enough to generate enthusiasm for the dollar. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 2.39pm BST | at 2.39pm BST |
| 2.17pm BST | 2.17pm BST |
| 14:17 | 14:17 |
| Pound above $1.28 for first time since election | Pound above $1.28 for first time since election |
| With the expectations for further US rate rises after today dimming, the dollar is continuing to weaken. | With the expectations for further US rate rises after today dimming, the dollar is continuing to weaken. |
| This is to the benefit of the pound, which has climbed above $1.28 for the first time since the UK election. It was a brief moment, but sterling is still up 0.36% at $1.2795. | This is to the benefit of the pound, which has climbed above $1.28 for the first time since the UK election. It was a brief moment, but sterling is still up 0.36% at $1.2795. |
| 2.11pm BST | 2.11pm BST |
| 14:11 | 14:11 |
| The weaker than expected US inflation and retail sales figures could mean the Federal Reserve being more cautious about further interest rate rises this year, says James Knightley of ING Bank: | The weaker than expected US inflation and retail sales figures could mean the Federal Reserve being more cautious about further interest rate rises this year, says James Knightley of ING Bank: |
| This [data] creates more of a headache for the Federal Reserve in how it communicates its hiking strategy. They keep talking about slower growth and weaker inflation being transitory (the word was used on nine separate occasions in the minutes to the May FOMC meeting), but the longer we go without seeing growth and inflationary pressures is resulting in the markets becoming less convinced about higher interest rates. | This [data] creates more of a headache for the Federal Reserve in how it communicates its hiking strategy. They keep talking about slower growth and weaker inflation being transitory (the word was used on nine separate occasions in the minutes to the May FOMC meeting), but the longer we go without seeing growth and inflationary pressures is resulting in the markets becoming less convinced about higher interest rates. |
| With little sign of tax reform and fiscal stimulus coming the Fed will likely sound more cautious on the prospect of an additional hike later this year even though their forecasts will almost certainly include it when released later on today. | With little sign of tax reform and fiscal stimulus coming the Fed will likely sound more cautious on the prospect of an additional hike later this year even though their forecasts will almost certainly include it when released later on today. |
| 1.57pm BST | 1.57pm BST |
| 13:57 | 13:57 |
| US data gloom: What the experts say | US data gloom: What the experts say |
| The dollar has just hit a one week-low against a basket of currencies, as the markets give their verdict to that double-dose of US data. | The dollar has just hit a one week-low against a basket of currencies, as the markets give their verdict to that double-dose of US data. |
| Jamie McGeever of Reuters says today’s inflation figures were much weaker than expected: | Jamie McGeever of Reuters says today’s inflation figures were much weaker than expected: |
| US core CPI falls to 1.7% in May, the lowest in 2 years and below every one of 48 economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll. | US core CPI falls to 1.7% in May, the lowest in 2 years and below every one of 48 economists' forecasts in a Reuters poll. |
| Matt Boesler of Bloomberg has spotted that the markets are repricing their interest rate hike expectations: | Matt Boesler of Bloomberg has spotted that the markets are repricing their interest rate hike expectations: |
| Market odds on a Fed rate hike in September following that CPI release are below 20% for the first time since the eve of the U.S. election | Market odds on a Fed rate hike in September following that CPI release are below 20% for the first time since the eve of the U.S. election |
| Colin Cieszynski of CMC Markets wonders if the Fed might even leave interest rates on hold today, rather than delivering the hike that has been priced in by the markets: | Colin Cieszynski of CMC Markets wonders if the Fed might even leave interest rates on hold today, rather than delivering the hike that has been priced in by the markets: |
| #USD selling off as soft #CPI inflation and poor #retailsales spark spec #Fed could pause or deliver a dovish hike today. #FOMC #forex pic.twitter.com/zNq3dALTX8 | #USD selling off as soft #CPI inflation and poor #retailsales spark spec #Fed could pause or deliver a dovish hike today. #FOMC #forex pic.twitter.com/zNq3dALTX8 |
| Chris Vecchio of Daily FX suggests the US dollar will have a volatile day | Chris Vecchio of Daily FX suggests the US dollar will have a volatile day |
| Between CPI & Retail Sales, and the FOMC meeting, today could be a rough day for the US Dollar $DXY https://t.co/wZMhyCKdCW | Between CPI & Retail Sales, and the FOMC meeting, today could be a rough day for the US Dollar $DXY https://t.co/wZMhyCKdCW |
| 1.44pm BST | 1.44pm BST |
| 13:44 | 13:44 |
| ...and US retail sales disappoint too! | ...and US retail sales disappoint too! |
| Another newsflash! US retail sales have suffered their biggest decline in 16 months. | Another newsflash! US retail sales have suffered their biggest decline in 16 months. |
| Retail sales declined by 0.3% in May, new figures from the Commerce Department show. That’s the biggest drop since January 2016, and dashes expectations of a 0.1% rise. | Retail sales declined by 0.3% in May, new figures from the Commerce Department show. That’s the biggest drop since January 2016, and dashes expectations of a 0.1% rise. |
| It’s another signal that the US recovery might not be as strong as hoped, and means the dollar is getting quite a hoofing. | It’s another signal that the US recovery might not be as strong as hoped, and means the dollar is getting quite a hoofing. |
| Dollar drops after CPI and retail sales miss ahead of Fed decision https://t.co/qVADYLT5r8 pic.twitter.com/UfV0dFC2qp | Dollar drops after CPI and retail sales miss ahead of Fed decision https://t.co/qVADYLT5r8 pic.twitter.com/UfV0dFC2qp |