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Greek bailout deal agreed; markets slide after weak UK retail sales and interest rate split – business live Greek bailout deal agreed; markets slide after weak UK retail sales and interest rate split – business live
(35 minutes later)
10.09pm BST
22:09
On the debt relief issue, the eurozone finance ministers have agreed to consider extending the maturity of some Greek bonds.
That’s a way of providing debt relief without actually writing the loans off. So something of a fudge, really - but one that all sides can live with.
Reuters explains:
To accommodate the IMF’s need for more specifics on debt relief, the euro zone finance ministers said in a statement that in 2018 they would be ready to consider extending the maturities and grace periods of their loans to Greece by a range from zero to 15 years. The average maturity now is 30 years.
But they did not go any further than that and the IMF said it was not enough to calculate Greek debt sustainability.
9.48pm BST9.48pm BST
21:4821:48
AFP on the Greek debt dealAFP on the Greek debt deal
The AFP newswire have a good write-up of tonight’s deal, by Alex Pigman.The AFP newswire have a good write-up of tonight’s deal, by Alex Pigman.
Here’s a flavour:Here’s a flavour:
Eurozone agrees Greek bailout payment, IMF comes on boardEurozone agrees Greek bailout payment, IMF comes on board
Eurozone ministers struck a long-delayed bailout deal with Greece on Thursday to unlock badly needed rescue cash, but warned Athens would have to wait for debt relief. After hours of talks in Luxembourg IMF chief Christine Lagarde and the eurozone’s 19 finance ministers greenlit a payout of 8.5 billion euros to meet debt payments due in July and avoid another summer of Greek crisis. Payment of the latest tranche of Greece’s 86-billion euro ($97-billion) has been held up for months by a row over its needs for debt relief pitting bailout-weary Germany against the IMF. “I am pleased to announce we have achieved an agreement on all elements,” Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem told a news conference. “I think this is a major step forward,” he said. In a breakthrough, Lagarde agreed in Luxembourg that the Washington-based IMF would join Greece’s massive bailout, but said any payouts depended on the eurozone coming up with a full debt relief plan. “Nobody claims that this is the best solution. This is a second best solution, but it’s not a bad solution,” said Lagarde, a former French finance minister. The deal averts a repeat of the summer of 2015 when Greece spectacularly defaulted on an IMF loan, and allows Athens to meet seven billion euros of debt repayments due in July.Eurozone ministers struck a long-delayed bailout deal with Greece on Thursday to unlock badly needed rescue cash, but warned Athens would have to wait for debt relief. After hours of talks in Luxembourg IMF chief Christine Lagarde and the eurozone’s 19 finance ministers greenlit a payout of 8.5 billion euros to meet debt payments due in July and avoid another summer of Greek crisis. Payment of the latest tranche of Greece’s 86-billion euro ($97-billion) has been held up for months by a row over its needs for debt relief pitting bailout-weary Germany against the IMF. “I am pleased to announce we have achieved an agreement on all elements,” Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem told a news conference. “I think this is a major step forward,” he said. In a breakthrough, Lagarde agreed in Luxembourg that the Washington-based IMF would join Greece’s massive bailout, but said any payouts depended on the eurozone coming up with a full debt relief plan. “Nobody claims that this is the best solution. This is a second best solution, but it’s not a bad solution,” said Lagarde, a former French finance minister. The deal averts a repeat of the summer of 2015 when Greece spectacularly defaulted on an IMF loan, and allows Athens to meet seven billion euros of debt repayments due in July.
Athens all week insisted it would veto the deal, bitter that the latest disbursement would come without firm debt relief commitments after it delivered on tough reforms. As a consolation, in a compromise negotiated by France, Greece won a certain amount of clarity from the eurozone on debt relief. Debt relief “will be implemented at the end of the programme, conditional on its successful implementation” in 2018, said Dijsselbloem, who is also Dutch finance minister. The eurozone would now draw up an “exit strategy” over the next year “to enable Greece to stand on its own feet again”, Dijsselbloem said.Athens all week insisted it would veto the deal, bitter that the latest disbursement would come without firm debt relief commitments after it delivered on tough reforms. As a consolation, in a compromise negotiated by France, Greece won a certain amount of clarity from the eurozone on debt relief. Debt relief “will be implemented at the end of the programme, conditional on its successful implementation” in 2018, said Dijsselbloem, who is also Dutch finance minister. The eurozone would now draw up an “exit strategy” over the next year “to enable Greece to stand on its own feet again”, Dijsselbloem said.
by @alexrpigman @afp #Eurozone agrees Greek bailout payment, #IMF comes on board https://t.co/jcQH2cVXNY via @yahoosgby @alexrpigman @afp #Eurozone agrees Greek bailout payment, #IMF comes on board https://t.co/jcQH2cVXNY via @yahoosg
9.24pm BST9.24pm BST
21:2421:24
Here’s the official line from the International Monetary Fund:Here’s the official line from the International Monetary Fund:
Lagarde: IMF taking constructive approach to help Greece, consistent with "two legs": reforms and debt relief https://t.co/P2XqdZka0Y pic.twitter.com/3JSwSDs2hALagarde: IMF taking constructive approach to help Greece, consistent with "two legs": reforms and debt relief https://t.co/P2XqdZka0Y pic.twitter.com/3JSwSDs2hA
The IMF has long been pushing the eurozone to admit that Greece needs debt relief to put the country’s finances on a sustainable level.The IMF has long been pushing the eurozone to admit that Greece needs debt relief to put the country’s finances on a sustainable level.
9.22pm BST9.22pm BST
21:2221:22
European Council president Donald Tusk has also applauded the news:European Council president Donald Tusk has also applauded the news:
Finally good news for Greece. It was well deserved.Finally good news for Greece. It was well deserved.
9.20pm BST9.20pm BST
21:2021:20
European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has welcomed tonight’s agreement to extend Greece its next bailout loan:European commissioner Pierre Moscovici has welcomed tonight’s agreement to extend Greece its next bailout loan:
Tonight, #Greece can see the light at the end of its long tunnel of austerity. From tonight, the watchwords are jobs, growth and investment.Tonight, #Greece can see the light at the end of its long tunnel of austerity. From tonight, the watchwords are jobs, growth and investment.
But there is scepticism too. Carsten Brzeski of Dutch bank ING points out that there isn’t any debt relief yet, and the IMF still haven’t put any money in.But there is scepticism too. Carsten Brzeski of Dutch bank ING points out that there isn’t any debt relief yet, and the IMF still haven’t put any money in.
Good old European muddling through on #Greece. Debt relief? Maybe later. IMF participation? In principle. Next tranche? Sure.Good old European muddling through on #Greece. Debt relief? Maybe later. IMF participation? In principle. Next tranche? Sure.
9.15pm BST9.15pm BST
21:1521:15
Greece’s finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, says tonight’s deal provides ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.Greece’s finance minister, Euclid Tsakalotos, says tonight’s deal provides ‘light at the end of the tunnel’.
He explains that the eurogroup has given greater clarity about the medium-term debt relief which Greece can look forward to once its bailout programme has been successfully completed in summer 2018.He explains that the eurogroup has given greater clarity about the medium-term debt relief which Greece can look forward to once its bailout programme has been successfully completed in summer 2018.
The eurozone is committed to helping Greece stand on its own two feet, Tsakalotos adds.The eurozone is committed to helping Greece stand on its own two feet, Tsakalotos adds.
However, Tsakalotos also hints at some unhappiness, suggesting that Greece deserves even more given what it has endured, and achieved.However, Tsakalotos also hints at some unhappiness, suggesting that Greece deserves even more given what it has endured, and achieved.
.@tsakalotos there is a new emphasis on growth and investments #Greece.@tsakalotos there is a new emphasis on growth and investments #Greece
Now much greater clarity for both Greeks+markets is it as much clarity as much Greeks deserve? Perhaps not says @tsakalotos #eurogroupNow much greater clarity for both Greeks+markets is it as much clarity as much Greeks deserve? Perhaps not says @tsakalotos #eurogroup
9.12pm BST9.12pm BST
21:1221:12
Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, says the Bundestag will consider whether to back this deal on Friday.Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, says the Bundestag will consider whether to back this deal on Friday.
That’s because the eurogroup’s decision needs to be ratified by national parliaments.That’s because the eurogroup’s decision needs to be ratified by national parliaments.
Schauble told reporters in Luxembourg that the deal will help improve Greece’s economy.Schauble told reporters in Luxembourg that the deal will help improve Greece’s economy.
“Greece has to become competitive to get access to debt markets so it can stand on its own two feet.“Greece has to become competitive to get access to debt markets so it can stand on its own two feet.
“For that Greece has to carry out reforms.”.“For that Greece has to carry out reforms.”.
8.45pm BST8.45pm BST
20:4520:45
Greece reaches a deal over bailout fundsGreece reaches a deal over bailout funds
A late newsflash: Eurozone finance ministers have reached a deal to unlock €8.5bn in urgently needed loans.A late newsflash: Eurozone finance ministers have reached a deal to unlock €8.5bn in urgently needed loans.
The eurogroup reached the deal tonight, ending months of uncertainty, giving Greece the financial assistance it needs to meet debt repayments this summer (yes, Greece is bring lent more money so it can pay older loans back).The eurogroup reached the deal tonight, ending months of uncertainty, giving Greece the financial assistance it needs to meet debt repayments this summer (yes, Greece is bring lent more money so it can pay older loans back).
It will be split into three payments - the first, in early July, will cover debt repayments and various arrears.It will be split into three payments - the first, in early July, will cover debt repayments and various arrears.
#ESM's Regling: 3rd tranche of 8.5 billion for #Greece to be split into 2 instalments. 1st of 7.7 bil to be disbursed early July.#eurogroup#ESM's Regling: 3rd tranche of 8.5 billion for #Greece to be split into 2 instalments. 1st of 7.7 bil to be disbursed early July.#eurogroup
In a statement, the eurogroup welcomed the measures Greece has taken under its economic reform programme (which include painful austerity, tax rises and spending cuts).In a statement, the eurogroup welcomed the measures Greece has taken under its economic reform programme (which include painful austerity, tax rises and spending cuts).
Importantly, the International Monetary Fund has moved closer to finally supporting Greece’s bailout (which was agreed almost two years ago and expires in August 2018).Importantly, the International Monetary Fund has moved closer to finally supporting Greece’s bailout (which was agreed almost two years ago and expires in August 2018).
It is proposing to join the bailout this summer, but would not actually disburse any money until there is an agreement on Greek debt relief.....It is proposing to join the bailout this summer, but would not actually disburse any money until there is an agreement on Greek debt relief.....
Here’s the details:Here’s the details:
Acknowledging the staff level agreement reached with Greece on policies, IMF management will shortly recommend to the IMF’s Executive Board the approval in principle of Greece’s request for a 14-month Standby Arrangement. The IMF welcomes the further specification of the debt measures given today by Member States, and agrees that it represents a major step towards Greek debt sustainability. The IMF arrangement will become effective with resources made available in accordance with its terms, provided that the programme stays on track, when IMF staff can assure to the IMF’s Executive Board that there is an agreement on debt relief measures, that, appropriately calibrated at the end of the programme, would secure debt sustainability.Acknowledging the staff level agreement reached with Greece on policies, IMF management will shortly recommend to the IMF’s Executive Board the approval in principle of Greece’s request for a 14-month Standby Arrangement. The IMF welcomes the further specification of the debt measures given today by Member States, and agrees that it represents a major step towards Greek debt sustainability. The IMF arrangement will become effective with resources made available in accordance with its terms, provided that the programme stays on track, when IMF staff can assure to the IMF’s Executive Board that there is an agreement on debt relief measures, that, appropriately calibrated at the end of the programme, would secure debt sustainability.
On debt relief, the Eurogroup have confirmed their commitment to an early pledge to address Greece’s debt pile - but any move would only come after this current bailout.On debt relief, the Eurogroup have confirmed their commitment to an early pledge to address Greece’s debt pile - but any move would only come after this current bailout.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde says this is limited progress; not ideal, but enough to avoid a summer crisis.IMF chief Christine Lagarde says this is limited progress; not ideal, but enough to avoid a summer crisis.
#IMF MD @Lagarde:This is not the best solution but the 2nd best. The best one would have been the absolute agmt on debt relief for #Greece#IMF MD @Lagarde:This is not the best solution but the 2nd best. The best one would have been the absolute agmt on debt relief for #Greece
IMF head Lagarde expresses "hope" that the discussion over specific debt relief measures for Greece "can soon be brought to conclusion.”IMF head Lagarde expresses "hope" that the discussion over specific debt relief measures for Greece "can soon be brought to conclusion.”
5.46pm BST5.46pm BST
17:4617:46
Afternoon summaryAfternoon summary
Time for a quick recapTime for a quick recap
The Bank of England has surprised the markets by revealing that three policymakers have voted to raise interest rates. At her final meeting, Kristin Forbes pushed for borrowing costs to rise from 0.25% to 0.5%, and was supported by fellow MPC members Michael Sanders and Ian McCafferty.The Bank of England has surprised the markets by revealing that three policymakers have voted to raise interest rates. At her final meeting, Kristin Forbes pushed for borrowing costs to rise from 0.25% to 0.5%, and was supported by fellow MPC members Michael Sanders and Ian McCafferty.
The three hawks have highlighted the Bank’s concerns about inflation, which jumped to 2.9% earlier this week. But there other five members are more concerned about the UK economy.The three hawks have highlighted the Bank’s concerns about inflation, which jumped to 2.9% earlier this week. But there other five members are more concerned about the UK economy.
Our economics editor Larry Elliott argues that the doves are right:Our economics editor Larry Elliott argues that the doves are right:
Households are spending less, the housing market is weak, new car registrations have plunged and wage growth has fallen back, even though more people are in jobs.Households are spending less, the housing market is weak, new car registrations have plunged and wage growth has fallen back, even though more people are in jobs.
On balance, the arguments in favour of leaving rates where they are look more compelling than the arguments for raising themOn balance, the arguments in favour of leaving rates where they are look more compelling than the arguments for raising them
The latest economic data has highlighted why the Bank is worried. UK retail sales volumes fell sharply last month, contracting by 1.2%. On an annual basis, Britons bought just 0.9% more stuff than a year ago -- the smallest rise in four years.The latest economic data has highlighted why the Bank is worried. UK retail sales volumes fell sharply last month, contracting by 1.2%. On an annual basis, Britons bought just 0.9% more stuff than a year ago -- the smallest rise in four years.
City traders were jolted by the news, sending the FTSE 100 and 250 indices down sharply today.City traders were jolted by the news, sending the FTSE 100 and 250 indices down sharply today.
Furniture maker DFS added to the anxiety by reporting that its sales have fallen materially in recent weeks. Its shares plunged by a fifth following this morning’s profits warning.Furniture maker DFS added to the anxiety by reporting that its sales have fallen materially in recent weeks. Its shares plunged by a fifth following this morning’s profits warning.
Over in Luxembourg, eurozone finance ministers are discussing whether Greece has done enough to receive its next bailout tranche. There’s optimism that a deal could come tonight....Over in Luxembourg, eurozone finance ministers are discussing whether Greece has done enough to receive its next bailout tranche. There’s optimism that a deal could come tonight....
City bigwigs won’t be heading to Mansion House for their annual black tie shindig; the dinner has been cancelled due to the Grenfell Tower disaster.City bigwigs won’t be heading to Mansion House for their annual black tie shindig; the dinner has been cancelled due to the Grenfell Tower disaster.
5.42pm BST5.42pm BST
17:4217:42
Helena SmithHelena Smith
The Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has signalled he is hopeful that tonight’s eurogroup meeting will produce what members of his government often like to call “white smoke.”The Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras has signalled he is hopeful that tonight’s eurogroup meeting will produce what members of his government often like to call “white smoke.”
Emerging from a tripartite summit of Greek, Israeli and Cypriot leaders in Thessaloniki, the leftist leader told the country’s news agency:Emerging from a tripartite summit of Greek, Israeli and Cypriot leaders in Thessaloniki, the leftist leader told the country’s news agency:
“In the end the good [guys] win.”“In the end the good [guys] win.”
The cryptic sound-bite is being interpreted as the first sign of concrete optimism from the leader over Greece’s debt deal.The cryptic sound-bite is being interpreted as the first sign of concrete optimism from the leader over Greece’s debt deal.
The Greek media is now reporting it is only a matter of time before the bailout review is formally wrapped up. The big question, it says, is the message euro area ministers will send to markets regarding mid-term debt relief.The Greek media is now reporting it is only a matter of time before the bailout review is formally wrapped up. The big question, it says, is the message euro area ministers will send to markets regarding mid-term debt relief.
5.20pm BST5.20pm BST
17:2017:20
No signs of a breakthrough at the Greek debt talks yet...No signs of a breakthrough at the Greek debt talks yet...
That moment when a Eurozone official tells you they haven't started talking about Greece. #EurogroupThat moment when a Eurozone official tells you they haven't started talking about Greece. #Eurogroup
5.04pm BST5.04pm BST
17:0417:04
Markets hit by retail gloomMarkets hit by retail gloom
Britain’s FTSE 100 has ended the day down 55 points, or 0.75%, at 7419, after a downbeat session.Britain’s FTSE 100 has ended the day down 55 points, or 0.75%, at 7419, after a downbeat session.
Hundreds of millions of pounds was wiped off the value of Britain’s biggest retailers, after this morning’s weak retail sales figures. That included Next (-6%) and Marks & Spencer (-4.5%).Hundreds of millions of pounds was wiped off the value of Britain’s biggest retailers, after this morning’s weak retail sales figures. That included Next (-6%) and Marks & Spencer (-4.5%).
Traders were worried by the news that retail sales shrank by 1.2% in May, and only grew by 0.9% over the last 12 months - the weakest rise in four years.Traders were worried by the news that retail sales shrank by 1.2% in May, and only grew by 0.9% over the last 12 months - the weakest rise in four years.
The FTSE 250 has a steeper selloff, shedding 2% or 421 to 19,553. That looks like the biggest one-day fall since last July.The FTSE 250 has a steeper selloff, shedding 2% or 421 to 19,553. That looks like the biggest one-day fall since last July.
Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says this pessimism highlights why the Bank of England shouldn’t raise interest rates right now.Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says this pessimism highlights why the Bank of England shouldn’t raise interest rates right now.
‘Sentiment towards UK retailers is remarkably fragile at the moment, and any signs of a consumer squeeze are being seized upon as a reason to take a big red pen to the share prices of companies in this sector. Retailers are undoubtedly facing tough times as inflation looks set to hit household budgets, however the market’s extreme response smacks of a knee-jerk reaction to one piece of retail sales data, when only a month ago these same figures were being celebrated for their resilience.‘Sentiment towards UK retailers is remarkably fragile at the moment, and any signs of a consumer squeeze are being seized upon as a reason to take a big red pen to the share prices of companies in this sector. Retailers are undoubtedly facing tough times as inflation looks set to hit household budgets, however the market’s extreme response smacks of a knee-jerk reaction to one piece of retail sales data, when only a month ago these same figures were being celebrated for their resilience.
Against this background the Bank of England looks out of step to be seriously considering raising interest rates, when economic data is pointing towards a consumer slowdown. Indeed the central bank has itself highlighted weaker consumer spending as a key risk to the UK economy, so now this particular chicken is coming home to roost, it’s strange that the Bank of England is thinking about releasing the foxes. For the moment the balance of power still rests with the doves in the MPC however, and it’s worthy of note that expectations of an interest rate rise have been confounded for many years now.’Against this background the Bank of England looks out of step to be seriously considering raising interest rates, when economic data is pointing towards a consumer slowdown. Indeed the central bank has itself highlighted weaker consumer spending as a key risk to the UK economy, so now this particular chicken is coming home to roost, it’s strange that the Bank of England is thinking about releasing the foxes. For the moment the balance of power still rests with the doves in the MPC however, and it’s worthy of note that expectations of an interest rate rise have been confounded for many years now.’
Other European markets also ended in the red:Other European markets also ended in the red:
4.27pm BST4.27pm BST
16:2716:27
Back in the UK, Sam Hill, RBC’s senior UK economist, has argued that the next UK interest rate move will be DOWN, even though three Bank of England policymakers voted to raise them today.Back in the UK, Sam Hill, RBC’s senior UK economist, has argued that the next UK interest rate move will be DOWN, even though three Bank of England policymakers voted to raise them today.
Hill believes that slowing consumer spending is a risk to economic growth. Business spending could falter too, in the face of political uncertainty.Hill believes that slowing consumer spending is a risk to economic growth. Business spending could falter too, in the face of political uncertainty.
So he believes governor Carney should highlight this uncertainty, and downplay the chances of a rate hike, when he next speaks (tonight’s Mansion House speech having been cancelled, of course).So he believes governor Carney should highlight this uncertainty, and downplay the chances of a rate hike, when he next speaks (tonight’s Mansion House speech having been cancelled, of course).
Our view is that Carney should downplay the signal sent by the hawkish external members in light of the precarious position of the consumer and the uncertain post-election aftermath.Our view is that Carney should downplay the signal sent by the hawkish external members in light of the precarious position of the consumer and the uncertain post-election aftermath.
Indeed, despite the vote split from the June meeting, we retain a forecast for more stimulus in Q1 2018, in the form of a Bank Rate cut to 0.1% and an additional £50bn of QE Gilt buying.Indeed, despite the vote split from the June meeting, we retain a forecast for more stimulus in Q1 2018, in the form of a Bank Rate cut to 0.1% and an additional £50bn of QE Gilt buying.
3.44pm BST3.44pm BST
15:4415:44
Helena SmithHelena Smith
Over in Athens, pensioners have been holding anti-austerity protests - and sound unimpressed by the prospect of Greece finally getting its next bailout loan approved today.Over in Athens, pensioners have been holding anti-austerity protests - and sound unimpressed by the prospect of Greece finally getting its next bailout loan approved today.
Helena Smith reports from the Greek capital:Helena Smith reports from the Greek capital:
Today’s euro group is starting on a note of optimistic with even Greece’s embattled finance minister saying he is hopeful that today’s proceedings will end well. But whatever emerges this evening will be far from what the increasingly embattled Greek government had in mind.Today’s euro group is starting on a note of optimistic with even Greece’s embattled finance minister saying he is hopeful that today’s proceedings will end well. But whatever emerges this evening will be far from what the increasingly embattled Greek government had in mind.
As euro area finance ministers prepared for this afternoon’s crucial Euro group, pensioners from across Greece gathered before the country’s parliament in Syntagma square to protest against the extra cuts they now stand to suffer following legislation of additional austerity measures last month.As euro area finance ministers prepared for this afternoon’s crucial Euro group, pensioners from across Greece gathered before the country’s parliament in Syntagma square to protest against the extra cuts they now stand to suffer following legislation of additional austerity measures last month.
Most, like Nikos Agnagnostopulos, were in their eighties. “I came into Athens from the Peloponnese because the fight has to go on,” he said.Most, like Nikos Agnagnostopulos, were in their eighties. “I came into Athens from the Peloponnese because the fight has to go on,” he said.
“As a builder I paid into my fund for nearly 50 years and now they have reduced my pension by 50%. With the next round there will be nothing left.”“As a builder I paid into my fund for nearly 50 years and now they have reduced my pension by 50%. With the next round there will be nothing left.”
Prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist-led coalition agreed to pre-legilsate cuts that as of 2019 will see some pensions being reduced by a further 18 percent in exchange for 7.5 bn euro in loan disbursements that single currency finance ministers are expected to sign off today. With maturing debt due next month, the tranche is vital if Greece is to, once again, avert default. But the emergency funds are a far cry from the debt relief Tsipras insists is absolutely necessary if the recession-hit Greek economy is ever to recover.Prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ leftist-led coalition agreed to pre-legilsate cuts that as of 2019 will see some pensions being reduced by a further 18 percent in exchange for 7.5 bn euro in loan disbursements that single currency finance ministers are expected to sign off today. With maturing debt due next month, the tranche is vital if Greece is to, once again, avert default. But the emergency funds are a far cry from the debt relief Tsipras insists is absolutely necessary if the recession-hit Greek economy is ever to recover.
“At the very least we are expecting what they agree to give us to be bigger than the forthcoming debt owed,” said one Syriza MP adding that a bigger tranche would automatically stimulate the real economy.“At the very least we are expecting what they agree to give us to be bigger than the forthcoming debt owed,” said one Syriza MP adding that a bigger tranche would automatically stimulate the real economy.
“We were told [by Tsipras] in no uncertain terms that the qui pro quo for supporting measures that went beyond those initially agreed in this [bailout] programme would be debt forgiveness. A lot of us are enraged that while we have kept to our side of the deal, they [creditors] have not kept to theirs.”“We were told [by Tsipras] in no uncertain terms that the qui pro quo for supporting measures that went beyond those initially agreed in this [bailout] programme would be debt forgiveness. A lot of us are enraged that while we have kept to our side of the deal, they [creditors] have not kept to theirs.”
Ahead of the today’s meeting Tsipras had urged lenders to “respect the rules” in op eds penned for the French daily Le Monde and German Die Welt. “We expect our lenders to respect the rules that they, themselves, came up with,” he wrote. “ To respect my country. To respect Greece.”Ahead of the today’s meeting Tsipras had urged lenders to “respect the rules” in op eds penned for the French daily Le Monde and German Die Welt. “We expect our lenders to respect the rules that they, themselves, came up with,” he wrote. “ To respect my country. To respect Greece.”
More than 2,000 elderly protesters have marched through central Athens to protest further pension cuts#Athens #pensioners #protesting pic.twitter.com/EJawRBPCUkMore than 2,000 elderly protesters have marched through central Athens to protest further pension cuts#Athens #pensioners #protesting pic.twitter.com/EJawRBPCUk
3.16pm BST3.16pm BST
15:1615:16
Greece close to debt dealGreece close to debt deal
Optimism is building that Greece and its creditors might finally reach a deal over its bailout today.Optimism is building that Greece and its creditors might finally reach a deal over its bailout today.
The eurogroup meeting is getting underway in Luxembourg, and several ministers have expressed hopes that Athens might finally get its next aid tranche. This loan has been held back for months, as creditors demand moreThe eurogroup meeting is getting underway in Luxembourg, and several ministers have expressed hopes that Athens might finally get its next aid tranche. This loan has been held back for months, as creditors demand more
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters:German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told reporters:
“I remain confident that we will find an agreement today on the payment of the latest tranche.”“I remain confident that we will find an agreement today on the payment of the latest tranche.”
However, Schauble also dampened hopes of a breakthrough on debt relief today.However, Schauble also dampened hopes of a breakthrough on debt relief today.
French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was also upbeat, saying:French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire was also upbeat, saying:
“It’s a question of goodwill and it’s a question of willingness. If everyone around the table makes a very slight and positive move in the right direction we should be able to find an agreement today,”“It’s a question of goodwill and it’s a question of willingness. If everyone around the table makes a very slight and positive move in the right direction we should be able to find an agreement today,”
The IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, is also attending the meeting:The IMF’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, is also attending the meeting:
#IMF's @Lagarde on arrival for #Eurogroup meeting: "Hopefully differences will narrow enough so that it can help the process" on #Greece. pic.twitter.com/qm4dfYjwJU#IMF's @Lagarde on arrival for #Eurogroup meeting: "Hopefully differences will narrow enough so that it can help the process" on #Greece. pic.twitter.com/qm4dfYjwJU
2.49pm BST2.49pm BST
14:4914:49
The head of the Royal Statistical Society is jubilant that UK data will no longer be released early to selected insiders.The head of the Royal Statistical Society is jubilant that UK data will no longer be released early to selected insiders.
Huge success for @RoyalStatSoc and partners - @ONS to end #prereleaseaccess to statistics from 1st July https://t.co/fI48Mf1kQdHuge success for @RoyalStatSoc and partners - @ONS to end #prereleaseaccess to statistics from 1st July https://t.co/fI48Mf1kQd
Back in March, the WSJ’s Mike Bird exposed how UK government bonds moved in suspicious ways before UK data was released, suggesting that statistics were being leaked.Back in March, the WSJ’s Mike Bird exposed how UK government bonds moved in suspicious ways before UK data was released, suggesting that statistics were being leaked.
He wrote:He wrote:
On average, between April 2011 and December 2016, U.K. government-bond futures correctly anticipated the rise or fall that ultimately happened when economic data were published, according to an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by Alexander Kurov, associate professor of finance at West Virginia University.....On average, between April 2011 and December 2016, U.K. government-bond futures correctly anticipated the rise or fall that ultimately happened when economic data were published, according to an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by Alexander Kurov, associate professor of finance at West Virginia University.....
Some senior British statisticians and policy makers have long feared that the U.K.’s wide, early distribution of data creates a much greater risk of leaks and the potential that people could trade on data ahead of their release.Some senior British statisticians and policy makers have long feared that the U.K.’s wide, early distribution of data creates a much greater risk of leaks and the potential that people could trade on data ahead of their release.
For U.K. unemployment data, for instance, 118 people have prerelease access, according to the Office for National Statistics.For U.K. unemployment data, for instance, 118 people have prerelease access, according to the Office for National Statistics.
The beautiful print graphic pic.twitter.com/FS9jgKjg0mThe beautiful print graphic pic.twitter.com/FS9jgKjg0m
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ONS finally tightens data releases after leak fearsONS finally tightens data releases after leak fears
Important news! The Office for National Statistics is stopping releasing data 24 hours early to scores of politicians and officials.Important news! The Office for National Statistics is stopping releasing data 24 hours early to scores of politicians and officials.
From July 1, the ONS will end its current ‘pre-access’ system, which allowed early access to official surveys.From July 1, the ONS will end its current ‘pre-access’ system, which allowed early access to official surveys.
This follows pressure from economists and journalists, and persistent concern that the data has been leaked to City traders who have profited by buying or selling the pound in advance.This follows pressure from economists and journalists, and persistent concern that the data has been leaked to City traders who have profited by buying or selling the pound in advance.
The UK’s national statistician, John Pullinger, says that previous efforts to tighten early access haven’t worked, so the whole system must end.The UK’s national statistician, John Pullinger, says that previous efforts to tighten early access haven’t worked, so the whole system must end.
Pullinger says:Pullinger says:
On the basis of all the information now available to me I consider that the public benefit likely to result from pre-release access to ONS statistics is outweighed by the detriment to public trust in those statistics likely to result from such access.On the basis of all the information now available to me I consider that the public benefit likely to result from pre-release access to ONS statistics is outweighed by the detriment to public trust in those statistics likely to result from such access.
U.K. STATISTICS AUTHORITY TO END EARLY ACCESS TO DATA FOR GOVT no more leaks!U.K. STATISTICS AUTHORITY TO END EARLY ACCESS TO DATA FOR GOVT no more leaks!
And now... UK STATISTICS AUTHORITY CHAIRMAN SAYS ONS PLANS TO END GOVERNMENT MINISTERS' PRE-RELEASE ACCESS TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS FROM JUL 1 https://t.co/OyRK0HwbuKAnd now... UK STATISTICS AUTHORITY CHAIRMAN SAYS ONS PLANS TO END GOVERNMENT MINISTERS' PRE-RELEASE ACCESS TO OFFICIAL STATISTICS FROM JUL 1 https://t.co/OyRK0HwbuK
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14:2314:23
Lena Komileva of G+ Economics makes a very good point.Lena Komileva of G+ Economics makes a very good point.
The Bank of England doesn’t actually have to raise rates to influence the markets. It can make signals, and encourage investors to change their views, through a narrow vote on the MPC.The Bank of England doesn’t actually have to raise rates to influence the markets. It can make signals, and encourage investors to change their views, through a narrow vote on the MPC.
She says:She says:
It is an open question as to whether either Saunders and or McCafferty would have predicted a rate hike at today’s meeting had they still been in their former roles as a market and industry economist respectively. This is to say that, with monetary “hawks” likely to remain in the minority, even in the face of a strong inflation overshoot, the importance of the wider vote split is in the market signalling, not in the probability of an actual rate hike near term.It is an open question as to whether either Saunders and or McCafferty would have predicted a rate hike at today’s meeting had they still been in their former roles as a market and industry economist respectively. This is to say that, with monetary “hawks” likely to remain in the minority, even in the face of a strong inflation overshoot, the importance of the wider vote split is in the market signalling, not in the probability of an actual rate hike near term.
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Just in: The Mansion House Dinner has been cancelled, due to the Grenfell Tower disaster.Just in: The Mansion House Dinner has been cancelled, due to the Grenfell Tower disaster.
Mansion House dinner is to be cancelledMansion House dinner is to be cancelled
Statement from City of London Corporation “In the light of the tragedy at Grenfell Tower we are cancelling tonight’s Mansion House Dinner”Statement from City of London Corporation “In the light of the tragedy at Grenfell Tower we are cancelling tonight’s Mansion House Dinner”
City of London cancels Mansion House dinner altogether, adding: “Our thoughts are focussed with the victims and their families and friends.”City of London cancels Mansion House dinner altogether, adding: “Our thoughts are focussed with the victims and their families and friends.”
UpdatedUpdated
at 1.55pm BSTat 1.55pm BST