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| These are the negotiating skills David Davis will need to get a good Brexit deal | These are the negotiating skills David Davis will need to get a good Brexit deal |
| (7 months later) | |
| Wed 21 Jun 2017 11.00 BST | |
| Last modified on Wed 20 Sep 2017 17.35 BST | |
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| How’s it going? With what has been described as the most important national negotiations in most people’s lifetime looming, many of those watching and waiting are frustrated and mystified. Perhaps in considering, and judging, the progress of Brexit it would help if we took into account the nature of the negotiation process. It is interactive, it is unashamedly adversarial and above all it is complicated; indeed, the more issues are up to be negotiated, the greater the complexity. Brexit will certainly involve a bewildering number of elements, from free movement of people, borders and security issues to trade terms and more; much more. | How’s it going? With what has been described as the most important national negotiations in most people’s lifetime looming, many of those watching and waiting are frustrated and mystified. Perhaps in considering, and judging, the progress of Brexit it would help if we took into account the nature of the negotiation process. It is interactive, it is unashamedly adversarial and above all it is complicated; indeed, the more issues are up to be negotiated, the greater the complexity. Brexit will certainly involve a bewildering number of elements, from free movement of people, borders and security issues to trade terms and more; much more. |
| The overall principle of negotiation is simply stated: the job of both parties is to move towards an agreement that each can be happy with, even though what is decided necessitates some compromise. Few, if any, negotiations are characterised by one party getting exactly what they want and the other nothing; the principle of aiming for what is called a “win-win” solution, that is both parties feeling a good deal was done, should always guide the discussions. Most often, and certainly in this case, parties have to live with each other afterwards and any ongoing resentment and outrage at being taken to the cleaners will not prompt future trust and cooperation. | The overall principle of negotiation is simply stated: the job of both parties is to move towards an agreement that each can be happy with, even though what is decided necessitates some compromise. Few, if any, negotiations are characterised by one party getting exactly what they want and the other nothing; the principle of aiming for what is called a “win-win” solution, that is both parties feeling a good deal was done, should always guide the discussions. Most often, and certainly in this case, parties have to live with each other afterwards and any ongoing resentment and outrage at being taken to the cleaners will not prompt future trust and cooperation. |
| Few sum it up better than a sentence I saw on the internet, attributed to a six-year-old named Annabel. With a perception way beyond her age, she is reported as saying: “If you want a guinea pig, you start by asking for a pony.” She will doubtless do well. | Few sum it up better than a sentence I saw on the internet, attributed to a six-year-old named Annabel. With a perception way beyond her age, she is reported as saying: “If you want a guinea pig, you start by asking for a pony.” She will doubtless do well. |
| Which brings us to the five key principles inherent to negotiating. | Which brings us to the five key principles inherent to negotiating. |
| Aim high | Aim high |
| Rarely, if ever, is anyone likely to get more than they initially demand. Negotiation (and compromise) will always move down the scale. So anything other than starting with an initial stance that aims high makes no sense whatsoever. The ritual of negotiations demands this too: the other party will expect it and anything else will lack credibility. Importantly this applies also to the persona of the major players. It helps to come over as a serious player, a competent force to be reckoned with, if not exactly as being bloody difficult; hence some of the posturing we have seen in the build-up to the start of the negotiations. | Rarely, if ever, is anyone likely to get more than they initially demand. Negotiation (and compromise) will always move down the scale. So anything other than starting with an initial stance that aims high makes no sense whatsoever. The ritual of negotiations demands this too: the other party will expect it and anything else will lack credibility. Importantly this applies also to the persona of the major players. It helps to come over as a serious player, a competent force to be reckoned with, if not exactly as being bloody difficult; hence some of the posturing we have seen in the build-up to the start of the negotiations. |
| Get the other side’s “shopping list” | Get the other side’s “shopping list” |
| What are the things about which they will negotiate? This can be difficult (and with Brexit the list will be long), but it is important, as the other side of the coin is finding that when things seem complete and agreed someone adds something previously held back. So a good deal of asking and listening is necessary, much of it ahead of making an individual case. | What are the things about which they will negotiate? This can be difficult (and with Brexit the list will be long), but it is important, as the other side of the coin is finding that when things seem complete and agreed someone adds something previously held back. So a good deal of asking and listening is necessary, much of it ahead of making an individual case. |
| Negotiation is a process of trading | Negotiation is a process of trading |
| Without trading lists of differing, and likely disparate, wants – demands – elements to be decided will simply sit opposite each other and go nowhere. Stalemate is a real possibility. Much of negotiation consists of an “if you do this, I’ll do that” approach (if I can have a pet, I’ll take care of feeding it). The elements to be traded vary in importance and, in part, the process strives to make the other party believe that the importance of different things is more, or less, than it actually is. Thus one can trade something comparatively minor and be seen to be making a major concession. Much to-and-fro discussion is often necessary to establish how important things are and what level of flexibility there might be on each side; some compromise is always essential, yet everyone wants the best deal possible, and to get that, concessions are essential. | Without trading lists of differing, and likely disparate, wants – demands – elements to be decided will simply sit opposite each other and go nowhere. Stalemate is a real possibility. Much of negotiation consists of an “if you do this, I’ll do that” approach (if I can have a pet, I’ll take care of feeding it). The elements to be traded vary in importance and, in part, the process strives to make the other party believe that the importance of different things is more, or less, than it actually is. Thus one can trade something comparatively minor and be seen to be making a major concession. Much to-and-fro discussion is often necessary to establish how important things are and what level of flexibility there might be on each side; some compromise is always essential, yet everyone wants the best deal possible, and to get that, concessions are essential. |
| Keep it civil | Keep it civil |
| On the way through this process, agreement may seem impossible and tempers may fray. Yet threats and ultimatums, certainly made in a way that seems to seek to avoid all compromise, may make things worse. A whole raft of suggestions and different permutations may need to be offered on a “What if …” basis, until a solution that seems fair and reasonable to both parties is arrived at. It is important that each party believes that there are things the other will not do or agree; indeed a willingness to walk away must often be seen as a real possibility if a mutually beneficial arrangement is not found. | On the way through this process, agreement may seem impossible and tempers may fray. Yet threats and ultimatums, certainly made in a way that seems to seek to avoid all compromise, may make things worse. A whole raft of suggestions and different permutations may need to be offered on a “What if …” basis, until a solution that seems fair and reasonable to both parties is arrived at. It is important that each party believes that there are things the other will not do or agree; indeed a willingness to walk away must often be seen as a real possibility if a mutually beneficial arrangement is not found. |
| See it through to the end | See it through to the end |
| Ultimately everything up for negotiation needs to be agreed in some way. Another rule is never to agree to just part. If a concession is made, it is difficult if not impossible to go back on it; what matters ultimately is the balance of factors decided. With Brexit the list of things to negotiate is simply huge, so agreeing everything together in the round, so to speak, may not be possible. How this is handled will doubtless make for still greater complexity. | Ultimately everything up for negotiation needs to be agreed in some way. Another rule is never to agree to just part. If a concession is made, it is difficult if not impossible to go back on it; what matters ultimately is the balance of factors decided. With Brexit the list of things to negotiate is simply huge, so agreeing everything together in the round, so to speak, may not be possible. How this is handled will doubtless make for still greater complexity. |
| Think of young Annabel wanting a pet again. Every aspect of the discussion about this will have a range of possibilities: six guinea pigs or one or two, feeding by the same person every day or maybe a different arrangement at weekends and so on. One can imagine many, many possibilities even in this extremely simple scenario. Brexit negotiations will be many orders of magnitude more complex than this, and yet the principles and techniques that can be deployed are essentially the same in every negotiation. A negotiation plays out slowly, with each party keeping some things close to their chest and yet trying to appear reasonable and persuasively make their point of view easy to agree with. | Think of young Annabel wanting a pet again. Every aspect of the discussion about this will have a range of possibilities: six guinea pigs or one or two, feeding by the same person every day or maybe a different arrangement at weekends and so on. One can imagine many, many possibilities even in this extremely simple scenario. Brexit negotiations will be many orders of magnitude more complex than this, and yet the principles and techniques that can be deployed are essentially the same in every negotiation. A negotiation plays out slowly, with each party keeping some things close to their chest and yet trying to appear reasonable and persuasively make their point of view easy to agree with. |
| Currently it seems all aspects of the process are at loggerheads with public expectations, especially at the time of an election. The public want to know what’s going on; so too do opposition politicians and a whole range of interested parties. Yet every time something is spelt out clearly the Europeans know a little more about our detailed intentions, have time to work out how to make their case more powerful or avoid agreeing to something, and the options available to us that could lead to a satisfactory conclusion are reduced. | Currently it seems all aspects of the process are at loggerheads with public expectations, especially at the time of an election. The public want to know what’s going on; so too do opposition politicians and a whole range of interested parties. Yet every time something is spelt out clearly the Europeans know a little more about our detailed intentions, have time to work out how to make their case more powerful or avoid agreeing to something, and the options available to us that could lead to a satisfactory conclusion are reduced. |
| Perhaps we should accept that once the negotiations are properly and formally under way the better the discussions are going, the less it will be possible for us to know the details. | Perhaps we should accept that once the negotiations are properly and formally under way the better the discussions are going, the less it will be possible for us to know the details. |
| Meantime, I think we can assume that Annabel never did expect to get a pony, but she appears to have known enough about the process to by now be the proud owner of a guinea pig. | Meantime, I think we can assume that Annabel never did expect to get a pony, but she appears to have known enough about the process to by now be the proud owner of a guinea pig. |
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