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Bank of England tells banks to raise more capital - business live Bank of England tells banks to raise more capital as consumer credit fears grow - business live
(35 minutes later)
11.20am BST
11:20
Q: You seem to be blaming lenders, rather than consumers, for the rise in consumer credit - but shouldn’t people be more cautious about how much debt they take on?
Carney says that UK households have deleveraged a lot since the financial crisis, and only releveraged recently.
He wouldn’t say that households as a whole are taking elevated risks.
The first line of defence is that lenders themselves are responsible; the second line of defence is banks set aside enough capital incase of a downturn.
11.15am BST
11:15
Carney states the obvious
Q: How concerned are you that UK consumers are borrowing too much, and will find themselves in difficulties when interest rates rise?
Mark Carney replies that the BoE’s message, in good times or bad ones, is that anyone who takes out a loan should consider that they could face adverse conditions in the future, such as weaker growth and higher interest rates.
This “stating the obvious, which is often what you get from a central banker”, is particularly appropriate today, the governor adds smilingly.
Updated
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11.12am BST
11:12
On cybercrime, Carney says the Bank is setting out the framework that will be needed to protect the UK financial system from computer attacks.
11.10am BST
11:10
Carney: We're preparing Brexit scenarios
On Brexit, Carney says the Bank is making contingency plans for all possible outcomes, and concentrating on those would have the greatest impact on the economy.
That includes the possibility that Britain leaves the European Union without a deal (this is the ‘cliff-edge Brexit’ that many firms fear).
Mark Carney says that Bank of England is continuing to monitor Brexit and ensure that banks have the right contingency plans in place.
Mark Carney says @bankofengland is contingency planning for "no deal" at end of #Brexit - not saying that will happen, just one of the risks
11.07am BST
11:07
Carney says that forcing banks to hold more capital (by raising the counter-cyclical buffer to 0.5% today, and probably to 1% in November) will more protection to losses.
BoE Carney on the wires#gbpusd pic.twitter.com/5QjBDR95RY
11.05am BST
11:05
Carney: Consumer credit growth and Brexit are key risks
Mark Carney begins his press conference by saying that financial stability has been strengthened since the 2008 crisis.
But the job of tackling financial dangers is “never done, and risks are evolving.”
The Financial Policy Committee thinks that the overall risks from the domestic environment are at a “standard level”, with most indicators neither “particularly elevated nor subdued”.
But there are some risks that require particular vigilance, he continues
One is consumer credit -- growth has “far outpaced” household income in the last year, including credit cards and loans to buy new homes. And with the market competitive, lenders are vulnerable to a downturn.
The second worry is Brexit -- the range of possible outcomes as Britian leaves the EU, and the paths to them.
Updated
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11.02am BST
11:02
Watch the BoE press conference here.
Mark Carney is facing financial reporters at the Bank of England now, to explain the thinking behind today’s financial stability report.
You can watch it live here:
10.59am BST
10:59
Breaking: Google fined record €2.42bn by EU
Google has been handed a record €2.42bn fine by Brussels over alleged abuse of its market dominance.
It was a much bigger than expected fine, with most predicting a penalty in the region of €1bn.
EU anti-trust officials have accused the search engine giant of illegally favouring its shopping service.
It is the biggest fine for a single company in an EU anti-trust case, and follows a seven-year investigation.
European Commissioner Margrethe Vestager, in charge of competition policy, said:
Google has come up with many innovative products and services that have made a difference to our lives. That’s a good thing. But Google’s strategy for its comparison shopping service wasn’t just about attracting customers by making its product better than those of its rivals. Instead, Google abused its market dominance as a search engine by promoting its own comparison shopping service in its search results, and demoting those of competitors.
What Google has done is illegal under EU antitrust rules. It denied other companies the chance to compete on the merits and to innovate. And most importantly, it denied European consumers a genuine choice of services and the full benefits of innovation.
More soon...
Here's the European Commission statement about its Google fine https://t.co/95R0H29aoT
And here is the background:
Updated
at 11.00am BST
10.58am BST
10:58
Financial stability report: instant reaction
City experts are trawling through the Bank of England’s financial stability report.
Duncan Weldon of Resolution Group has spotted a chart showing how consumer credit losses rise when unemployment increases.
Good chart in the Bank of England Financial Stability Report - consumer credit losses & unemployment. https://t.co/8eKaE6UiK3 pic.twitter.com/EDixNcI59f
No wonder the Bank is forcing lenders to stash more capital in their vaults now, in case an economic downturn forces more consumers to default on their loans.
Alistair McQueen of Aviva points to another chart, showing how a drop in house prices can ripple through the system, triggering ‘fire sales’ and further losses.
.@bankofengland voices concerns about the housing market. 2+ MILLION first-time-buyers since interest rates were last increased in July 2007 pic.twitter.com/LTFy2tdMzG
Steve Hawkes of The Sun has a pithy summary:
Here we go again - Bank of England orders banks to set aside £11 billion to cover potential explosion (my word) in bad debts
10.48am BST
10:48
The BoE’s financial stability report is online here.
Here’s an infographic form the Bank, setting the scene:
10.47am BST10.47am BST
10:4710:47
Bank of England report: The Key PointsBank of England report: The Key Points
The Bank of England is also boosting its work on cybercrime and continuing its work on Brexit’s impact.The Bank of England is also boosting its work on cybercrime and continuing its work on Brexit’s impact.
That’s on top of ordering UK banks to set aside more capital, and rushing forwards its consumer stress tests.That’s on top of ordering UK banks to set aside more capital, and rushing forwards its consumer stress tests.
Here are the five key points from the financial stability report. Here are the five key points from the financial stability report. The Bank of England is....
• Increasing the UK countercyclical capital buffer rate to 0.5%, from 0%. Absent a material change in the outlook, and consistent with its stated policy for a standard risk environment and of moving gradually, the FPC expects to increase the rate to 1% at its November meeting.• Increasing the UK countercyclical capital buffer rate to 0.5%, from 0%. Absent a material change in the outlook, and consistent with its stated policy for a standard risk environment and of moving gradually, the FPC expects to increase the rate to 1% at its November meeting.
• Bringing forward the assessment of stressed losses on consumer credit lending in the Bank’s 2017 annual stress test. This will inform the FPC’s assessment at its next meeting of any additional resilience required in aggregate against this lending. The FPC further supports the intentions of the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority to publish, in July, their expectations of lenders in the consumer credit market.• Bringing forward the assessment of stressed losses on consumer credit lending in the Bank’s 2017 annual stress test. This will inform the FPC’s assessment at its next meeting of any additional resilience required in aggregate against this lending. The FPC further supports the intentions of the Prudential Regulation Authority and Financial Conduct Authority to publish, in July, their expectations of lenders in the consumer credit market.
• Clarifying its existing insurance measures in the mortgage market, designed to prevent excessive growth in the number of highly indebted households. This will promote consistency across lenders in their application of tests to assess whether new mortgage borrowers can afford repayments.• Clarifying its existing insurance measures in the mortgage market, designed to prevent excessive growth in the number of highly indebted households. This will promote consistency across lenders in their application of tests to assess whether new mortgage borrowers can afford repayments.
• Consistent with its previous commitment, restoring the level of resilience delivered by its leverage ratio standard to the level it delivered in July 2016 before the FPC excluded central bank reserves from the leverage ratio exposure measure. The FPC intends to set the minimum leverage requirement at 3.25% of non-reserve exposures, subject to consultation.• Consistent with its previous commitment, restoring the level of resilience delivered by its leverage ratio standard to the level it delivered in July 2016 before the FPC excluded central bank reserves from the leverage ratio exposure measure. The FPC intends to set the minimum leverage requirement at 3.25% of non-reserve exposures, subject to consultation.
• Overseeing contingency planning to mitigate risks to financial stability as the United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union.• Overseeing contingency planning to mitigate risks to financial stability as the United Kingdom withdraws from the European Union.
• Building on the programme of cyber resilience testing it instigated in 2013, by setting out the essential elements of the regulatory framework for maintaining cyber resilience. It will now monitor that each element is being fulfilled by the relevant UK authorities.• Building on the programme of cyber resilience testing it instigated in 2013, by setting out the essential elements of the regulatory framework for maintaining cyber resilience. It will now monitor that each element is being fulfilled by the relevant UK authorities.
Updated
at 10.54am BST
10.42am BST10.42am BST
10:4210:42
Another important point: the Bank of England is also bringing forwards its planned stress test on consumer credit lending to September, from November.Another important point: the Bank of England is also bringing forwards its planned stress test on consumer credit lending to September, from November.
That test will assess whether UK banks can handle a jump in consumer credit losses.That test will assess whether UK banks can handle a jump in consumer credit losses.
10.38am BST10.38am BST
10:3810:38
Today’s change means that UK banks will have to set aside more than £11bn of extra capital to cover potential losses if the economy weakens:Today’s change means that UK banks will have to set aside more than £11bn of extra capital to cover potential losses if the economy weakens:
From the BoE, my colleague Jill Treanor explains:From the BoE, my colleague Jill Treanor explains:
The Bank of England is to force banks to hold more capital in the face of rapid growth in lending on credit cards, car finance and personal loans.The Bank of England is to force banks to hold more capital in the face of rapid growth in lending on credit cards, car finance and personal loans.
The intervention by Threadneedle Street, which could amount to banks needing £11.4bn of extra capital in the next 18 months, is one of a number of measures intended to protect the financial system from the growth in consumer finance.The intervention by Threadneedle Street, which could amount to banks needing £11.4bn of extra capital in the next 18 months, is one of a number of measures intended to protect the financial system from the growth in consumer finance.
10.34am BST10.34am BST
10:3410:34
BANK OF ENGLAND RELEASES FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORTBANK OF ENGLAND RELEASES FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT
Here we go! The Bank of England has told Britain’s banks to start setting aside more capital to protect themselves from a financial downturn.Here we go! The Bank of England has told Britain’s banks to start setting aside more capital to protect themselves from a financial downturn.
That’s one of the key lines from the Financial Stability Report.That’s one of the key lines from the Financial Stability Report.
As predicted, the BoE is raising the counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCyB), so that banks must set aside 0.5% of their assets as capital in case of a rainy day.As predicted, the BoE is raising the counter-cyclical capital buffer (CCyB), so that banks must set aside 0.5% of their assets as capital in case of a rainy day.
That means it is reversing one of measures taken after the Brexit vote, a year ago.That means it is reversing one of measures taken after the Brexit vote, a year ago.
Interestingly, the BoE says it expecs to raise CCyB again, in November, to 1%.Interestingly, the BoE says it expecs to raise CCyB again, in November, to 1%.
More to follow....More to follow....
10.25am BST10.25am BST
10:2510:25
Tension is building in the City as traders wait for the Bank of England’s financial stability report to hit the wires, in just five minutes.Tension is building in the City as traders wait for the Bank of England’s financial stability report to hit the wires, in just five minutes.
Upcoming event in 5 min [09:30 GMT] - Bank of England Financial Stability Report () #forex #fx #financeUpcoming event in 5 min [09:30 GMT] - Bank of England Financial Stability Report () #forex #fx #finance
10.10am BST
10:10
The rise in the euro has pushed Europe’s stock markets down.
Ever index is now in the red, with the Stoxx 600 losing 0.6%.
A stronger euro isn’t great news for eurozone exporters, of course. But the key point is that Draghi is being optimistic -- that’s no reason to dump shares.
Neil Wilson of ETX Capital says traders shouldn’t be too skittish:
Draghi suggested inflation is becoming more sustainable and deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary forces. Importantly he suggests deflationary forces are external, temporary shocks and the ECB can overlook. That’s what happens when you open the taps on a massive stimulus programme. The question is whether the Eurozone would survive without the QE support.
Draghi sounded more circumspect on that front, arguing that he is confident that monetary policy is working but still needs to remain very loose. Again it’s a stretch to describe it as hawkish – Draghi is simply affirming that loose monetary policy is working without significant adverse consequences and therefore should be maintained. He’s not advocating tightening any time soon.
9.45am BST
09:45
The European Commission just dropped a loud hint that the Google antitrust fine is coming this morning....
This tweet is from EC press officer Yizhou Ren:
Press conference with Cssr @vestager on an antitrust case, today @ 12h CET - follow online here: https://t.co/5RXFkZgna0
9.43am BST
09:43
Mario Draghi’s bullish talk has also sent the pound down against the euro, shedding 0.4% to €1.133.
That means one euro buys 88.2p, up from 87.9p yesterday. Good news for eurozone holidaymakers heading to the UK this summer, but a blow to Britons planning a continental jaunt.
Here’s Reuters take on Draghi’s speech:
The euro zone still needs “considerable” monetary support from the European CentralBank even as its economy recovers steadily and inflation picks up, ECB President Mario Draghi said on Tuesday.
“All the signs now point to a strengthening and broadening recovery in the euro area. Deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary ones,” Draghi said at the ECB’s annual policy forum in Sintra, Portugal.
“However, a considerable degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for inflation dynamics to become durable and self-sustaining.”
Updated
at 9.44am BST
9.32am BST
09:32
Here’s a chart showing how the euro spiked as Draghi spoke in Portugal:
9.26am BST
09:26
Euro jumps as Draghi speaks
Oooh. The euro is rallying as Mario Draghi tells the ECB Forum that reflationary pressures in the eurozone are building, as the economy recovers.
The single currency has jumped by half a cent against the US dollar, to $1.1235, with Draghi sounding more upbeat and hawkish than expected.
Draghi has also told his audience that “a considerable degree” of stimulus is still needed in the eurozone, and that the ECB must be ‘prudent’ in how it unwinds it.
Draghi has previously talked about a ‘substantial degree’ of help being needed, and Arne Petimezas, analyst at AFS Group in The Netherlands, thinks this wording is significant.
*DRAGHI SAYS CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF STIMULUS STILL NEEDED >>> downgrade from "very substantial" stimulus still needed
9.16am BST
09:16
Not for the first (or last) time, Mario Draghi’s message is that his policies are delivering the goods....
Draghi: We can be confident that our policy is working and its full effects on inflation will gradually materialise
Draghi: Our policy needs to be persistent and we need to be prudent in how we adjust its parameters to improving financial conditions
Draghi: Since January 2015 and the announcement of the expanded asset purchase programme euro area GDP has grown by 3.6%
Draghi: Between 2016-2019 we estimate that our monetary policy will have lifted inflation by 1.7 percentage points, cumulatively
9.14am BST
09:14
Draghi: Recovery is strengthening and broadening
Over in Sintra, European Central Bank president Mario Dragh is giving the keynote speech at the ECB’s Forum now. It’s being streamed here.
Draghi says there are clear signs of a “strengthening and broadening” recovery underway in the eurozone area.
There have been 16 straight quarters of growth in the euro area, he says.
But this nascent growth needs to become sustainable, and that means higher productivity growth.
Central bankers face an unusual challenge today, Draghi continues -- they face growth that is “above trend and well distributed across the euro area”.
But at the same time, inflation is more muted than you’d expect.
To decide the right approach (ie, when to cut the ECB’s stimulus package), you need to understand the causes, Draghi cautions.
And Draghi’s assessment is that monetary policy is working to build up reflationary pressures.
But it’s being slowed by external price shocks, slack in the labour market, and a change in how the labour market and inflation interact, he concludes.
Follow live coverage of the #ECBForum from 10:00 CET. President Draghi opens today’s proceedings https://t.co/4LXrqmHsUc pic.twitter.com/h0m9YumIbb
9.01am BST
09:01
Five things to watch for from the Bank of England
The FT’s Chris Giles has pulled together a list of key issues to watch for today, when the Bank of England releases its twice-yearly report on financial stability.
Here’s a flavour:
More here.
UK financial stability report: five things to watch - https://t.co/AZhUB5NCuz
8.30am BST
08:30
UK consumer confidence hit by hung parliament and house prices
UK consumer confidence has plunged since June’s general election, as the shock of a hung parliament hits households.
It gives the Bank of England a fresh headache as it considers the health of the UK economy, ahead of today’s Financial Stability Report.
Pollsters at YouGov found that UK citizens are fretting about political uncertainty, rising inflation, falling real wages, and the state of the housing market.
YouGov found there was a “pronounced collapse in consumer confidence following the election”. The sight of Theresa May losing her majority sent its consumer morale index sliding to 105.2 from 109.1.
For June as a whole, consumer confidence dropped to 106.9, its second-lowest level since the summer of 2013.
Stephen Harmston, head of YouGov, says that the UK housing slowdown is causing particular alarm (Nationwide says prices have fallen for the last three months)
“The hung parliament seems to have further dampened consumers’ spirits, which were already sinking following the continued squeeze on household finances.
“But the real cause for alarm will be the cooling of the property market, as this is one of the key things that has propped up consumer confidence over the past few years.”
More here:
Updated
at 8.46am BST
8.01am BST
08:01
The agenda: Bank of England's financial stability report
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
We’re facing central bank overload today, with monetary policy chiefs speaking in London, and the Portuguese town of Sintra.
All eyes will be on the Bank of England, as its powerful Financial Policy Committee releases its latest report followed by a press conference with Governor Mark Carney.
The FPC, which is charged with maintaining financial stability, could order banks to rein in their riskier lending, following growing fears that consumer borrowing is getting out of hand.
The Bank could also tell City banks to start restocking their capital buffers, having previously told banks to lend more after the Brexit vote.
Meanwhile in sunny (ish) Sintra, the European Central Bank is holding its annual forum. We’ll be hearing from Mario Draghi, ECB president, who last night told students in Portugal that his massive stimulus scheme was creating employment.
Challenged over the Bank’s huge money-printing programme, Draghi declared that:
“The millennials that found a job because of our policy, I’m pretty sure they are okay” [with the ECB’s policies] .
And he also denied that savers had been unfairly treated, arguing that they’re also benefitting from the recovery, as:
“Recessions are not good for anybody, savers or non-savers,
Draghi defends #ECB stimulus saying jobs matter most for equality https://t.co/TWdIRoWxLh pic.twitter.com/cwRML1qh1Z
It could be a busy morning, as there’s a strong chance that Google will be hit with a whopping fine this morning, of over €1bn, for breaching Europe’s competition rules.
That would end a long inquiry into whether Google used its dominant search engine to unfairly promote its Google Shopping service, but could spark an angry response from America.
And then tonight, the world’s most powerful central banker, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, is speaking at London’s Royal Academy. We’re promised a “wide-ranging discussion about global economic issues.”
On the corporate front, retail group Debenhams and car hire chain Northgate are reporting results, plus there are retail sales figures in the UK and consumer confidence stats from America to keep us on our toes.
The agenda
9am BST: Mario Draghi gives keynote speech at the ECB Forum in Sintra
10.30am BST: Bank of England releases financial stability report
11am BST: BoE governor Mark Carney’s press conference
11am BST: CBI’s UK retail sales figures
3pm: US consumer confidence report
6pm: Janet Yellen gives the British Academy ‘President’s Lecture’
Updated
at 8.35am BST