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| UK service sector growth slows, productivity stumbles and car sales slide - as it happened | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 4.09pm BST | |
| 16:09 | |
| Closing summary | |
| OK, time for a recap. | |
| A flurry of disappointing data have fuelled fears that Britain’s economy is struggling to gain momentum. | |
| Growth in the service sector slowed to a four-month low in June, with companies blaming political uncertainty created by the general election and Brexit. | |
| Firms warned that they are facing higher costs, and struggling to find enough skilled workers. | |
| Markit, which compiled the report, says: | |
| UK service providers indicated another slowdown in business activity growth during June, which largely reflected the weakest upturn in new work since September 2016. | |
| Survey respondents commented on subdued business and consumer confidence, alongside some instances of delayed decision- making around the election. | |
| City experts say the figures show that the economy is faltering, just as Europe strengthens. | |
| Jasper Lawler of London Capital Group summed up the mood: | |
| Falling confidence in the service sector is compounded by the weakness in manufacturing reported on Monday. | |
| Rising prices will always slow consumption but it was hoped the advantage of a weaker currency to manufacturing would be a positive offset. | |
| Sterling managed to wind back some of its early loses because in the bigger picture, expectations are building that the Bank of England’s next move will be to lift rates. | |
| In another blow, productivity across the UK has dropped by 0.5%, taking it back below the pre-crisis level, and highlighting the underlying weakness of the economy. | |
| ICAEW public sector director Ross Campbell says the government needs to act carefully to boost productivity. | |
| “Productivity shouldn’t be used as a buzzword simply to keep businesses happy. | |
| There have been signals from Government that we are likely to see an end to austerity and therefore a possible increase in public spending. With the economy still in a fragile state, it’s imperative that any increased expenditure is allocated to areas that will help to drive economic growth - infrastructure, training, and fiscal stimulus.” | |
| UK car sales have dropped for the third month running, falling by 4.8% in June. | |
| The industry body, the SMMT, blamed recent tax changes that encouraged people to buy new cars before April. However, economists say the slide shows consumers are cutting back. | |
| It’s quite a contrast with the eurozone, where private sector companies have posted their strongest quarter in six years. Companies in Germany, France, Spain and Italy all reporting solid expansion last month. | |
| #Eurozone economy enjoyed best quarter for over 6 years during Q2; final Composite #PMI Output Index at 56.3 in Jun https://t.co/u1trgAVHxR pic.twitter.com/nd8SdpJw6I | |
| In happier news, Scotland has avoided falling into recession. New figures show that Scottish GDP expanded by 0.8% during the first three months of 2017. Union leaders, though, warn that the growth is build on underpaid workers. | |
| In other news... | |
| Sainsbury’s has faced criticism at its AGM for abandoning Fairtrade tea; campaigners have warned that the whole Fairtrade movement could suffer. | |
| UK payments giant Worldpay has agreed terms of a takeover by US rival Vantiv. Worldpay’s shares have slumped by 8.5% since the news broke, on disappointment that a bidding war with JP Morgan won’t take place. | |
| Greek tourists hoping for a trip around the Acropolis tomorrow may be disappointed; workers have called a strike in protest at austerity cutbacks. | |
| The IMF has issued a warning to G20 leaders in general (and D. Trump in particular) to support world trade and avoid ‘myopic’ protectionism. | |
| That’s probably all for today. Thanks for reading and for all the comments. GW | |
| 4.04pm BST | |
| 16:04 | |
| IMF: World leaders must avoid protectionism | |
| Newsflash from Washington: the International Monetary Fund has warned world leaders to avoid ‘myopic’ trade policies. | |
| It looks like a none-too-subtle jab at president Trump, ahead of the G20 leaders meeting later this week. | |
| 3.56pm BST | 3.56pm BST |
| 15:56 | 15:56 |
| Helena Smith | Helena Smith |
| Greece’s summer of discontent is hearing up. | Greece’s summer of discontent is hearing up. |
| After striking rubbish collectors, guards at Greece’s plethora of archaeological sites and museums are gearing up for a fight with prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ government. | After striking rubbish collectors, guards at Greece’s plethora of archaeological sites and museums are gearing up for a fight with prime minister Alexis Tsipras’ government. |
| Helena Smith reports from Athens. | Helena Smith reports from Athens. |
| Culture ministry employees seconded to guard museums and archaeological sites announced they will walk off the job Thursday to press demands for better work conditions, including permanent positions. The strike, at the height of the tourist season, will keep all sites and museums closed including Athens’ most visited monument, the 5th century BC Acropolis. | Culture ministry employees seconded to guard museums and archaeological sites announced they will walk off the job Thursday to press demands for better work conditions, including permanent positions. The strike, at the height of the tourist season, will keep all sites and museums closed including Athens’ most visited monument, the 5th century BC Acropolis. |
| In a statement, the employees’ union said it wanted the Greek prime minister “to immediately realise his promise” to hire 200 extra guards at sites where understaffing was leading “with mathematical precision” to either closure or safety issues. | In a statement, the employees’ union said it wanted the Greek prime minister “to immediately realise his promise” to hire 200 extra guards at sites where understaffing was leading “with mathematical precision” to either closure or safety issues. |
| The Acropolis and other gems are expected to remained closed for several hours on Thursday morning. | The Acropolis and other gems are expected to remained closed for several hours on Thursday morning. |
| Culture ministry budgets have suffered greatly under the cuts demanded by international creditors keeping Greece’s debt-stricken economy afloat. The leftist-led government, though sympathetic to the plight of employees who are also demanding overtime, is stuck between a rock and hard place in terms of satisfying demands that run counter to the tough strictures of creditors. | Culture ministry budgets have suffered greatly under the cuts demanded by international creditors keeping Greece’s debt-stricken economy afloat. The leftist-led government, though sympathetic to the plight of employees who are also demanding overtime, is stuck between a rock and hard place in terms of satisfying demands that run counter to the tough strictures of creditors. |
| 3.21pm BST | 3.21pm BST |
| 15:21 | 15:21 |
| US factory orders miss expectations | US factory orders miss expectations |
| Newsflash: US factory orders shrank by 0.8% in May, a worse performance than expected. | Newsflash: US factory orders shrank by 0.8% in May, a worse performance than expected. |
| That’s the second monthly decline, after April’s 0.3% decline. It suggests America’s manufacturing sector may be slowing. | That’s the second monthly decline, after April’s 0.3% decline. It suggests America’s manufacturing sector may be slowing. |
| US factory orders decline 0.8% in May. This after Durable Goods fell 1.1%. #Economy not looking good. | US factory orders decline 0.8% in May. This after Durable Goods fell 1.1%. #Economy not looking good. |
| 3.06pm BST | 3.06pm BST |
| 15:06 | 15:06 |
| Henry McDonald | Henry McDonald |
| American investors looking at Ireland as a beachhead into the European market believe the Trump administration may have more impact on their decision making than Brexit. | American investors looking at Ireland as a beachhead into the European market believe the Trump administration may have more impact on their decision making than Brexit. |
| That’s according to Republic’s Industrial Development Authority (IDA) today. | That’s according to Republic’s Industrial Development Authority (IDA) today. |
| Marking the news that more than 11,000 new jobs were created by IDA-backed foreign direct investments in the first half of this year, the IDA’s CEO Martin Shanahan said “geopolitical instability is the main threat that clients see” affecting their business performances in Ireland over the next two to three years. | Marking the news that more than 11,000 new jobs were created by IDA-backed foreign direct investments in the first half of this year, the IDA’s CEO Martin Shanahan said “geopolitical instability is the main threat that clients see” affecting their business performances in Ireland over the next two to three years. |
| Referring to the upturning in FDI jobs in Ireland, Shanahan said: | Referring to the upturning in FDI jobs in Ireland, Shanahan said: |
| “The positive results are an indication of just how important Ireland’s stable economic and political environment have become for investors. | “The positive results are an indication of just how important Ireland’s stable economic and political environment have become for investors. |
| The twin challenges of both Brexit and a new US Administration have presented investors with much to think about. | The twin challenges of both Brexit and a new US Administration have presented investors with much to think about. |
| Indications suggest that investors believe that the new US administration may have more of an impact than Brexit.” | Indications suggest that investors believe that the new US administration may have more of an impact than Brexit.” |
| 2.23pm BST | 2.23pm BST |
| 14:23 | 14:23 |
| The government will be worried by the disappointing slide in UK productivity, which shank by 0.5% in the first three months of this year. | The government will be worried by the disappointing slide in UK productivity, which shank by 0.5% in the first three months of this year. |
| Poor productivity usually leads to lacklustre growth, and ultimately weaker tax receipts; not ideal, if you’re facing pressure to abandon austerity and end the public sector pay freeze. | Poor productivity usually leads to lacklustre growth, and ultimately weaker tax receipts; not ideal, if you’re facing pressure to abandon austerity and end the public sector pay freeze. |
| Sky News’s Ian King has a good take: | Sky News’s Ian King has a good take: |
| What will worry ministers almost as much are the sectoral and regional breakdowns provided by the ONS. | What will worry ministers almost as much are the sectoral and regional breakdowns provided by the ONS. |
| It reports that in the manufacturing sector, output per hour actually improved by 0.2% during the quarter. | It reports that in the manufacturing sector, output per hour actually improved by 0.2% during the quarter. |
| However, in the services sector, output per hour fell by 0.6%. | However, in the services sector, output per hour fell by 0.6%. |
| This has a bigger impact overall because the services sector accounts for around four-fifths of all UK economic activity. | This has a bigger impact overall because the services sector accounts for around four-fifths of all UK economic activity. |
| On a more encouraging front, productivity in the public sector was 3% higher in 2016 than in 2010, suggesting that the public sector has become more efficient in the face of spending cuts in some sectors. | On a more encouraging front, productivity in the public sector was 3% higher in 2016 than in 2010, suggesting that the public sector has become more efficient in the face of spending cuts in some sectors. |
| The regional and industry differences present a mixed picture. | The regional and industry differences present a mixed picture. |
| London and the South East remain the most productive parts of the UK, thanks to the high levels of financial services activity there, a factor that has helped make Scotland more productive than some other parts of the UK economy. | London and the South East remain the most productive parts of the UK, thanks to the high levels of financial services activity there, a factor that has helped make Scotland more productive than some other parts of the UK economy. |
| The North East of England, a region long associated with industrial stagnation, also scores relatively highly thanks to high levels of what the ONS calls “non-manufacturing production”. | The North East of England, a region long associated with industrial stagnation, also scores relatively highly thanks to high levels of what the ONS calls “non-manufacturing production”. |
| But other parts of the economy, notably Wales and Northern Ireland, score poorly. | But other parts of the economy, notably Wales and Northern Ireland, score poorly. |
| Productivity in the UK has suffered its first quarterly fall since the last three months of 2015. Words from me herehttps://t.co/ld1s6XvMf0 | Productivity in the UK has suffered its first quarterly fall since the last three months of 2015. Words from me herehttps://t.co/ld1s6XvMf0 |
| 2.20pm BST | 2.20pm BST |
| 14:20 | 14:20 |
| If you’re just tuning in, here’s our news story about the slowdown in UK service sector growth: | If you’re just tuning in, here’s our news story about the slowdown in UK service sector growth: |
| Slowing growth across Britain’s services companies in June completed a “triple whammy” of disappointing economic news this week that also saw growth in the construction and manufacturing industries fade in response to Brexit uncertainty and weak consumer confidence. | Slowing growth across Britain’s services companies in June completed a “triple whammy” of disappointing economic news this week that also saw growth in the construction and manufacturing industries fade in response to Brexit uncertainty and weak consumer confidence. |
| Activity in the services industry, which accounts for almost 80% of economic activity, fell to a four-month low in June, dragging down the all-sector IHS Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index (PMI) from 54.5 in May to 53.9 in June, the lowest since February. | Activity in the services industry, which accounts for almost 80% of economic activity, fell to a four-month low in June, dragging down the all-sector IHS Markit/CIPS purchasing managers index (PMI) from 54.5 in May to 53.9 in June, the lowest since February. |
| Some analysts said the weak set of figures indicated a broad softening in activity across the economy that was likely to dent the enthusiasm of Bank of England policymakers who have proposed increasing interest rates. | Some analysts said the weak set of figures indicated a broad softening in activity across the economy that was likely to dent the enthusiasm of Bank of England policymakers who have proposed increasing interest rates. |
| Earlier this week, monetary policy committee members Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty said persistent inflation and strong employment growth needed to be calmed by higher interest rates. Chief economist Andy Haldane recently indicated that he could vote for a rise later this year should the economy continue to expand. | Earlier this week, monetary policy committee members Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty said persistent inflation and strong employment growth needed to be calmed by higher interest rates. Chief economist Andy Haldane recently indicated that he could vote for a rise later this year should the economy continue to expand. |
| Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist, said: “A slowing in services sector growth completes a triple-whammy of disappointing PMI survey readings. | Chris Williamson, Markit’s chief business economist, said: “A slowing in services sector growth completes a triple-whammy of disappointing PMI survey readings. |
| “Although the three PMI surveys are running at levels that are historically consistent with GDP growing by around 0.4% in the second quarter, it’s clear that the economy heads into the third quarter losing momentum.” | “Although the three PMI surveys are running at levels that are historically consistent with GDP growing by around 0.4% in the second quarter, it’s clear that the economy heads into the third quarter losing momentum.” |
| And here’s the full story: | And here’s the full story: |
| 1.45pm BST | 1.45pm BST |
| 13:45 | 13:45 |
| Fairtrade protests at Sainsbury's AGM | Fairtrade protests at Sainsbury's AGM |
| Supermarket chain Sainsbury is facing criticism at its Annual General Meeting today, after it decided to replace fair trade teabags with a new “Fairly Traded” label. | Supermarket chain Sainsbury is facing criticism at its Annual General Meeting today, after it decided to replace fair trade teabags with a new “Fairly Traded” label. |
| Last week, Sainsbury announced it is introducing its own in-house certification scheme, set new ethical standards and introducing a different way to pay farmers. | Last week, Sainsbury announced it is introducing its own in-house certification scheme, set new ethical standards and introducing a different way to pay farmers. |
| Campaigners are warning today that the move risks undermining the whole Fairtrade movement; the well-respected ethical certification scheme which was set up to give farmers in developing nations a better deal, and protect workers rights in some of the poorest parts of the world | Campaigners are warning today that the move risks undermining the whole Fairtrade movement; the well-respected ethical certification scheme which was set up to give farmers in developing nations a better deal, and protect workers rights in some of the poorest parts of the world |
| My colleague Sarah Butler is tweeting from the AGM in London: | My colleague Sarah Butler is tweeting from the AGM in London: |
| Shareholders challenging Sains on pilot of stopping Fairtrade tea own label. | Shareholders challenging Sains on pilot of stopping Fairtrade tea own label. |
| Lady from Cafod: concern Sains starting direction that will undermine Fairtrade and lead to plethora of standards, confusion for shoppers | Lady from Cafod: concern Sains starting direction that will undermine Fairtrade and lead to plethora of standards, confusion for shoppers |
| But chief executive Mike Coupe is defending the decision, claiming fair trade needs a reboot: | But chief executive Mike Coupe is defending the decision, claiming fair trade needs a reboot: |
| Coupe: Sains has tried working with Fairtrade and found not able to dev system with best economic, social, env outcomes for money investing | Coupe: Sains has tried working with Fairtrade and found not able to dev system with best economic, social, env outcomes for money investing |
| Coupe suggesting Fairtrade out of date: "it might have been fit for purpose 25 yrs ago but we are in a new world with new technology" | Coupe suggesting Fairtrade out of date: "it might have been fit for purpose 25 yrs ago but we are in a new world with new technology" |
| Oxfam has organised a protest outside the AGM, involving ‘human teabags’ in an attempt to sway shareholders and board members. | Oxfam has organised a protest outside the AGM, involving ‘human teabags’ in an attempt to sway shareholders and board members. |
| Matthew Spencer, Oxfam’s Campaigns, Policy and Influencing Director, argues that Sainsbury’s ‘fairer trade’ plan will give tea farmers a worse deal: | Matthew Spencer, Oxfam’s Campaigns, Policy and Influencing Director, argues that Sainsbury’s ‘fairer trade’ plan will give tea farmers a worse deal: |
| “Fairtrade is a lifeline for many of the most vulnerable communities helping them educate their children and provide vital healthcare. | “Fairtrade is a lifeline for many of the most vulnerable communities helping them educate their children and provide vital healthcare. |
| “Sainsbury’s is removing what little control some of the poorest tea farmers and producers have on how they spend the money they make, shifting decisions to a committee far away in London. This power grab turns an effective trade partnership into old school charitable grants. We urge Sainsbury’s to stick with the gold standard Fairtrade mark, which is trusted around the world.” | “Sainsbury’s is removing what little control some of the poorest tea farmers and producers have on how they spend the money they make, shifting decisions to a committee far away in London. This power grab turns an effective trade partnership into old school charitable grants. We urge Sainsbury’s to stick with the gold standard Fairtrade mark, which is trusted around the world.” |
| 1.21pm BST | 1.21pm BST |
| 13:21 | 13:21 |
| JP Morgan pulls out of Worldpay battle | JP Morgan pulls out of Worldpay battle |
| Newsflash: JP Morgan is taking its ball home, rather than battling to take control of Britain’s Worldpay. | Newsflash: JP Morgan is taking its ball home, rather than battling to take control of Britain’s Worldpay. |
| In a brief statement, JP Morgan says that it doesn’t intend to bid for the company: | In a brief statement, JP Morgan says that it doesn’t intend to bid for the company: |
| JP Morgan Chase & Co. (“J.P. Morgan”) notes the announcement by Worldpay Group plc (“Worldpay”) on 4 July 2017. In response to an invitation from Worldpay, J.P. Morgan was at a very early stage in considering whether or not to make an offer or the terms of any offer for Worldpay. | JP Morgan Chase & Co. (“J.P. Morgan”) notes the announcement by Worldpay Group plc (“Worldpay”) on 4 July 2017. In response to an invitation from Worldpay, J.P. Morgan was at a very early stage in considering whether or not to make an offer or the terms of any offer for Worldpay. |
| Following preliminary considerations, J.P. Morgan hereby announces that it does not intend to make an offer for Worldpay. J.P. Morgan continues to hold Worldpay in high regard. | Following preliminary considerations, J.P. Morgan hereby announces that it does not intend to make an offer for Worldpay. J.P. Morgan continues to hold Worldpay in high regard. |
| This leaves the field clear for Vantiv to complete its offer of 385p per share, announced a few minute ago. | This leaves the field clear for Vantiv to complete its offer of 385p per share, announced a few minute ago. |
| And shares in Worldpay have just fallen back to 383p, down 6% today, as the prospect of a juicy bidding war withers away. | And shares in Worldpay have just fallen back to 383p, down 6% today, as the prospect of a juicy bidding war withers away. |
| 12.58pm BST | 12.58pm BST |
| 12:58 | 12:58 |
| Just in: UK payments firm Worldpay has agreed to be taken over by US rival Vantiv in a £7.7bn deal. | Just in: UK payments firm Worldpay has agreed to be taken over by US rival Vantiv in a £7.7bn deal. |
| Yesterday, FTSE 100-listed Worldpay revealed that it had received two separate bids, one from Vantiv and one from JP Morgan. | Yesterday, FTSE 100-listed Worldpay revealed that it had received two separate bids, one from Vantiv and one from JP Morgan. |
| The Vantiv deal (terms here) values Worldpay at £3.85 per share (including a 5p dividend), which is a 19% premium on their value on Monday. | The Vantiv deal (terms here) values Worldpay at £3.85 per share (including a 5p dividend), which is a 19% premium on their value on Monday. |
| However... Worldpay’s shares are trading around 406p right now, indicating that the City believe there could be a bidding war. | However... Worldpay’s shares are trading around 406p right now, indicating that the City believe there could be a bidding war. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 1.34pm BST | at 1.34pm BST |
| 12.38pm BST | 12.38pm BST |
| 12:38 | 12:38 |
| Scotland dodges recession as growth outstrips rest of UK | Scotland dodges recession as growth outstrips rest of UK |
| Severin Carrell | Severin Carrell |
| The Scottish economy has avoided a recession after the latest GDP figures showed growth of 0.8% in the last quarter to March 2017. | The Scottish economy has avoided a recession after the latest GDP figures showed growth of 0.8% in the last quarter to March 2017. |
| Alarm about its prospects had deepened after the economy shrank by 0.2% in the previous quarter, leaving Scotland’s economy trailing that of the UK as a whole. But the economy has bounced back in January-March. | Alarm about its prospects had deepened after the economy shrank by 0.2% in the previous quarter, leaving Scotland’s economy trailing that of the UK as a whole. But the economy has bounced back in January-March. |
| Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, tweeted that the country’s economy outperformed the UK’s 0.2% for the last quarter. | Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister, tweeted that the country’s economy outperformed the UK’s 0.2% for the last quarter. |
| Scottish economy grew by 0.8% in first quarter of 2017 - compared to UK growth in same quarter of 0.2%. https://t.co/0srD0HzHmE | Scottish economy grew by 0.8% in first quarter of 2017 - compared to UK growth in same quarter of 0.2%. https://t.co/0srD0HzHmE |
| With Scotland’s construction sector still contracting, a 4% growth in manufacturing and 3.1% growth in production help lift the overall figures, with chemicals including refined petroleum, and metals, driving those up. | With Scotland’s construction sector still contracting, a 4% growth in manufacturing and 3.1% growth in production help lift the overall figures, with chemicals including refined petroleum, and metals, driving those up. |
| Sturgeon said that the Scottish government’s intervention to help save the Dalzell steel plant had helped boost GDP. | Sturgeon said that the Scottish government’s intervention to help save the Dalzell steel plant had helped boost GDP. |
| Part of Q1 GDP growth in Scotland down to resumption of steel production at Dalzell - saved with the help of @scotgov intervention. | Part of Q1 GDP growth in Scotland down to resumption of steel production at Dalzell - saved with the help of @scotgov intervention. |
| However, on an annualised basis Scotland’s growth stood at 0.7%, still lagging substantially behind the UK’s. | However, on an annualised basis Scotland’s growth stood at 0.7%, still lagging substantially behind the UK’s. |
| Economists at the Fraser of Allander Institute said last week this sluggish growth was due to wider problems with Scotland’s economy, and not just the effects of the slump in oil prices. | Economists at the Fraser of Allander Institute said last week this sluggish growth was due to wider problems with Scotland’s economy, and not just the effects of the slump in oil prices. |
| John McLaren, an economist with Scottish Trends, said the latest figures showed Scottish growth had reached 1.2% over the past two years against 3.5% for the UK as a whole. | John McLaren, an economist with Scottish Trends, said the latest figures showed Scottish growth had reached 1.2% over the past two years against 3.5% for the UK as a whole. |
| Grahame Smith, general secretary of the Scottish TUC, said more urgent and substantial action was need to boost the economy, including scrapping the public sector pay cap. | Grahame Smith, general secretary of the Scottish TUC, said more urgent and substantial action was need to boost the economy, including scrapping the public sector pay cap. |
| Smith argues: | Smith argues: |
| “Growth rates in Scotland have been low for several years and what growth there has been has in part resulted from hard pressed workers building up more debt and exhausting their savings. This is clearly unsustainable. | “Growth rates in Scotland have been low for several years and what growth there has been has in part resulted from hard pressed workers building up more debt and exhausting their savings. This is clearly unsustainable. |
| “If steps are not taken to boost investment and demand and to prevent irresponsible private lending from destabilising the economy, another crash and recession is just round the corner.” | “If steps are not taken to boost investment and demand and to prevent irresponsible private lending from destabilising the economy, another crash and recession is just round the corner.” |