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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| Essential poll: Labor lead widens amid Coalition's internal divisions | Essential poll: Labor lead widens amid Coalition's internal divisions |
| (4 days later) | |
| Federal Labor has extended its lead over the Turnbull government, and the prime minister’s disapproval rating is up four points in a month, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. | Federal Labor has extended its lead over the Turnbull government, and the prime minister’s disapproval rating is up four points in a month, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. |
| The new opinion survey of 1,826 voters has Labor ahead of the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure, 54% to 46%. | The new opinion survey of 1,826 voters has Labor ahead of the Coalition on the two-party preferred measure, 54% to 46%. |
| The entrenched gap between the major parties appeared to narrow slightly in the weeks just after the May budget, but has widened again over the past fortnight – a time where rancorous internal divisions inside the government have been on full public display. | The entrenched gap between the major parties appeared to narrow slightly in the weeks just after the May budget, but has widened again over the past fortnight – a time where rancorous internal divisions inside the government have been on full public display. |
| In March, Labor boasted a 10-point gap with the Coalition, but by the middle of June, the margin had narrowed to 52% to 48%. Last week, Labor led 53% to the government’s 47%, and this week the gap is 54% to 46%. | In March, Labor boasted a 10-point gap with the Coalition, but by the middle of June, the margin had narrowed to 52% to 48%. Last week, Labor led 53% to the government’s 47%, and this week the gap is 54% to 46%. |
| The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3%. | The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3%. |
| While the Coalition appears to be losing ground in the national political contest, Malcolm Turnbull remains ahead of his opposite number Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister 41% (up 2% in a month) to 27% (up 1%). However, 31% of the sample did not know who would make a better prime minister (down 3% in a month). | While the Coalition appears to be losing ground in the national political contest, Malcolm Turnbull remains ahead of his opposite number Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister 41% (up 2% in a month) to 27% (up 1%). However, 31% of the sample did not know who would make a better prime minister (down 3% in a month). |
| The job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as prime minister is approved by 37% (up 1% from last month), while 49% disapproved (up 4% from last month). | The job Malcolm Turnbull is doing as prime minister is approved by 37% (up 1% from last month), while 49% disapproved (up 4% from last month). |
| The job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leaderis approved by 36% (up 2% from last month), while 44% disapproved (up 1%). | The job Bill Shorten is doing as opposition leaderis approved by 36% (up 2% from last month), while 44% disapproved (up 1%). |
| Despite Tony Abbott running an open campaign of destabilisation against his successor on the basis his positions are too centrist, Turnbull retains strong approval from Coalition voters, with 71% approving of the job he is doing as prime minister, and 83% nominating him as better prime minister. | Despite Tony Abbott running an open campaign of destabilisation against his successor on the basis his positions are too centrist, Turnbull retains strong approval from Coalition voters, with 71% approving of the job he is doing as prime minister, and 83% nominating him as better prime minister. |
| The Guardian Essential poll results are consistent with this week’s Newspoll which had Labor ahead on the two-party preferred measure 53% to 47% and Turnbull ahead as preferred prime minister on 41% to Shorten’s 33%. | The Guardian Essential poll results are consistent with this week’s Newspoll which had Labor ahead on the two-party preferred measure 53% to 47% and Turnbull ahead as preferred prime minister on 41% to Shorten’s 33%. |
| The poll comes as Malcolm Turnbull meets the British prime minister, Theresa May, in London for trade and security talks, and the government continues to juggle a host of issues triggering internal disagreement between conservatives and moderates. | The poll comes as Malcolm Turnbull meets the British prime minister, Theresa May, in London for trade and security talks, and the government continues to juggle a host of issues triggering internal disagreement between conservatives and moderates. |
| The West Australian Liberal Dean Smith told Perth’s Sunday Times he intended to bring forward a bill triggering a conscience vote on same sex marriage – which conservatives in the government will view as a deliberate provocation following a fracas generated by indiscreet comments by the manager of government business, Christopher Pyne. | The West Australian Liberal Dean Smith told Perth’s Sunday Times he intended to bring forward a bill triggering a conscience vote on same sex marriage – which conservatives in the government will view as a deliberate provocation following a fracas generated by indiscreet comments by the manager of government business, Christopher Pyne. |
| Once parliament resumes in August, Smith’s bill will trigger a broader debate inside the government about whether the Liberal party should move to having a conscience vote on marriage equality, or whether it should persist with its policy of a plebiscite until the next election. | Once parliament resumes in August, Smith’s bill will trigger a broader debate inside the government about whether the Liberal party should move to having a conscience vote on marriage equality, or whether it should persist with its policy of a plebiscite until the next election. |
| The government also faces ongoing trouble over climate and energy policy. | The government also faces ongoing trouble over climate and energy policy. |
| It has shelved the central recommendation of the recent Finkel review of the national electricity market – a new clean energy target – because of internal objections; but will face pressure from the states later this week to provide clarity on energy and climate policy when energy ministers meet to consider the way forward. | It has shelved the central recommendation of the recent Finkel review of the national electricity market – a new clean energy target – because of internal objections; but will face pressure from the states later this week to provide clarity on energy and climate policy when energy ministers meet to consider the way forward. |
| Essential poll | Essential poll |
| The Guardian Essential Report | The Guardian Essential Report |
| Labor party | Labor party |
| Coalition | Coalition |
| Malcolm Turnbull | Malcolm Turnbull |
| Bill Shorten | Bill Shorten |
| Liberal party | Liberal party |
| news | news |
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