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| Race for political centre is futile, Labor needs to be more progressive | Race for political centre is futile, Labor needs to be more progressive |
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| A voter who favours of parties meeting in the middle on negative gearing is wildly different to a one wishing they did on penalty rates • Greg Jericho is a Guardian Australia columnist | |
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| Sat 22 Jul 2017 23.12 BST | |
| Last modified on Fri 15 Sep 2017 12.19 BST | |
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| Quite often the political debate in this country is about the “sensible centre” – this mythical place that apparently captures the majority of voters. With his speech on Friday to the Melbourne Institute’s Economic and Social Outlook Conference, Bill Shorten has correctly gauged that progressive parties don’t win by conforming to a pre-established centre, but by instead convincing people that the centre needs to be more progressive. | Quite often the political debate in this country is about the “sensible centre” – this mythical place that apparently captures the majority of voters. With his speech on Friday to the Melbourne Institute’s Economic and Social Outlook Conference, Bill Shorten has correctly gauged that progressive parties don’t win by conforming to a pre-established centre, but by instead convincing people that the centre needs to be more progressive. |
| This week the Essential Report poll found that 71% of respondents agreed with the statement “I wish both sides of politics would try to meet each other in the middle more often”, and that 45% would consider voting for “a new party that took ideas from both sides of politics”. | This week the Essential Report poll found that 71% of respondents agreed with the statement “I wish both sides of politics would try to meet each other in the middle more often”, and that 45% would consider voting for “a new party that took ideas from both sides of politics”. |
| Such a finding is to a great extent both not surprising and not significant. Nearly half of voters might say they would vote for a new centre party, but all historical evidence suggests they would not. | Such a finding is to a great extent both not surprising and not significant. Nearly half of voters might say they would vote for a new centre party, but all historical evidence suggests they would not. |
| Emmanuel Macron and his new party might be a model to follow, but the reality is Australian politics differs greatly to France and as Macron has shown, a new “centrist party” is more about branding that any actual new policy direction. | Emmanuel Macron and his new party might be a model to follow, but the reality is Australian politics differs greatly to France and as Macron has shown, a new “centrist party” is more about branding that any actual new policy direction. |
| Such polling might have you argue the ALP should tack for the centre and that Bill Shorten’s speech on Friday in which he argued it was time to look at policies such as taxes, subsidies and expenditures “including reforms that in the past we might have dismissed as too politically difficult”, was a misstep. | Such polling might have you argue the ALP should tack for the centre and that Bill Shorten’s speech on Friday in which he argued it was time to look at policies such as taxes, subsidies and expenditures “including reforms that in the past we might have dismissed as too politically difficult”, was a misstep. |
| If 71% of voters want parties to meet each other in the middle, going for something that is “politically difficult” is surely code for pursuing something outside the centre. | If 71% of voters want parties to meet each other in the middle, going for something that is “politically difficult” is surely code for pursuing something outside the centre. |
| But such thinking would be a mistake, and the mistake is revealed in other questions within the poll. | But such thinking would be a mistake, and the mistake is revealed in other questions within the poll. |
| That 71% want parties to meet in the middle also means there are 29% of voters who have no real desire for compromise. That’s not surprising – it’s akin to Robert Kennedy’s line that “about one fifth of people are against everything all of the time”. | That 71% want parties to meet in the middle also means there are 29% of voters who have no real desire for compromise. That’s not surprising – it’s akin to Robert Kennedy’s line that “about one fifth of people are against everything all of the time”. |
| But crucially what those 71% consider as the middle is greatly different – and what they want movement on is crucial. | But crucially what those 71% consider as the middle is greatly different – and what they want movement on is crucial. |
| One voter might be in favour of parties meeting in the middle on the issue of negative gearing; but that is wildly different to a voter wishing they did it on individual workplace contracts or penalty rates. | One voter might be in favour of parties meeting in the middle on the issue of negative gearing; but that is wildly different to a voter wishing they did it on individual workplace contracts or penalty rates. |
| What constitutes the centre is where the real fight is. | What constitutes the centre is where the real fight is. |
| Consider the same poll also revealed that 61% support for the legalisation of same-sex marriage. Intriguingly that is 10 points less than the number who want political parties to meet in the middle. But it also highlights the myth of the “sensible centre”. | Consider the same poll also revealed that 61% support for the legalisation of same-sex marriage. Intriguingly that is 10 points less than the number who want political parties to meet in the middle. But it also highlights the myth of the “sensible centre”. |
| Just 15 years ago proposing same sex marriage would have seen you out of the centre. In 2004 a Newspoll found only 38% of voters were in favour of same-sex marriage. | Just 15 years ago proposing same sex marriage would have seen you out of the centre. In 2004 a Newspoll found only 38% of voters were in favour of same-sex marriage. |
| Those pushing for parties to meet in the middle would have counselled against any leader pushing that agenda. And yet parties and advocates continued to push for it, and now Australia’s current position on marriage equality sees it as a backwards and bigoted compared to rest of the world. | Those pushing for parties to meet in the middle would have counselled against any leader pushing that agenda. And yet parties and advocates continued to push for it, and now Australia’s current position on marriage equality sees it as a backwards and bigoted compared to rest of the world. |
| That is the problem with arguing for the centre – it is in effect an argument for the status quo – something no progressive party should ever seek. | That is the problem with arguing for the centre – it is in effect an argument for the status quo – something no progressive party should ever seek. |
| It was the big problem with Hillary Clinton. She was very much the realist – one who had seen change occur due to “incremental” steps – steps that involved compromise and meeting in the middle, and who believed that was the way forward. | It was the big problem with Hillary Clinton. She was very much the realist – one who had seen change occur due to “incremental” steps – steps that involved compromise and meeting in the middle, and who believed that was the way forward. |
| In her speech accepting the Democratic party’s nomination she even cited the founding fathers of the USA, who she said triumphed because they “began listening to each other, compromising, finding common purpose”. | In her speech accepting the Democratic party’s nomination she even cited the founding fathers of the USA, who she said triumphed because they “began listening to each other, compromising, finding common purpose”. |
| But Clinton forgot that those who push for social and economic change don’t aim to compromise, they aim for the change. To that end, they drag their opponents to the bargaining table; they don’t sit there waiting for them to arrive, ready to give up something, they bargain only if they have to, and if they have to they make sure they are the ones who control the framing of the debate. | But Clinton forgot that those who push for social and economic change don’t aim to compromise, they aim for the change. To that end, they drag their opponents to the bargaining table; they don’t sit there waiting for them to arrive, ready to give up something, they bargain only if they have to, and if they have to they make sure they are the ones who control the framing of the debate. |
| Thus Shorten’s is the smart play. | Thus Shorten’s is the smart play. |
| The latest labour force figures contained the excellent news that full-time employment has been growing strongly throughout 2017. Such a return of jobs is good news given 2016 was one of the few times in the past 25 years where full-time work went backwards. | The latest labour force figures contained the excellent news that full-time employment has been growing strongly throughout 2017. Such a return of jobs is good news given 2016 was one of the few times in the past 25 years where full-time work went backwards. |
| There is nothing to be gained by arguing that the debate needs to be about growth. Shorten needs to keep pushing for people to realise the debate is about more than that – that it needs to be as much about equality. | There is nothing to be gained by arguing that the debate needs to be about growth. Shorten needs to keep pushing for people to realise the debate is about more than that – that it needs to be as much about equality. |
| In the speech he argued that “inequality kills hope. Inequality feeds the sense that the deck is stacked against ordinary people, that the fix is in and the deal is done.” | In the speech he argued that “inequality kills hope. Inequality feeds the sense that the deck is stacked against ordinary people, that the fix is in and the deal is done.” |
| The message has been quickly analysed as Shorten following a Corbyn/Sanders line. That might be overstating it, but even so, it is where the debate should be. | The message has been quickly analysed as Shorten following a Corbyn/Sanders line. That might be overstating it, but even so, it is where the debate should be. |
| The economic debate for too long was based in the old canard that there is a trade off between growth and equality. Thus the “middle economic ground” was that we needed to push for as much growth as we could and assume that the “rising tide will lift all boats” – so even if inequality increased at least you could say everyone was better off. | The economic debate for too long was based in the old canard that there is a trade off between growth and equality. Thus the “middle economic ground” was that we needed to push for as much growth as we could and assume that the “rising tide will lift all boats” – so even if inequality increased at least you could say everyone was better off. |
| In effect, the debate on the economy was situated within the middle of the conservative force’s liking – where removing industrial relations protections was fine because we needed to pursue growth; where cutting high income taxes and cutting government services and spending was fine because we needed growth. We bought the argument that a budget surplus and low government debt fuelled economic growth. | In effect, the debate on the economy was situated within the middle of the conservative force’s liking – where removing industrial relations protections was fine because we needed to pursue growth; where cutting high income taxes and cutting government services and spending was fine because we needed growth. We bought the argument that a budget surplus and low government debt fuelled economic growth. |
| But research has shown that equality is crucial for long-term economic growth, and people are more open to that view because they have seen what has happened in the past decade. | But research has shown that equality is crucial for long-term economic growth, and people are more open to that view because they have seen what has happened in the past decade. |
| Even in the past year, employment has improved but wage growth has not. If you want evidence that the rising tide does not lift all boats, then four years of flat real wages and declining purchasing power is more than enough to get people thinking the idea has merit. | Even in the past year, employment has improved but wage growth has not. If you want evidence that the rising tide does not lift all boats, then four years of flat real wages and declining purchasing power is more than enough to get people thinking the idea has merit. |
| That shifts the centre. The ALP should not worry about polarising the conservative side of politics – that’s not going to make people accept that inequality is a vital issue; all it will do is maintain the focus on boats and tides and all things rising. | That shifts the centre. The ALP should not worry about polarising the conservative side of politics – that’s not going to make people accept that inequality is a vital issue; all it will do is maintain the focus on boats and tides and all things rising. |
| With the Greens in disarray, the ALP and the union movement needs to keep pushing the progressive side of politics and resist the easy, seemingly safe, but ultimately futile race for the centre. | With the Greens in disarray, the ALP and the union movement needs to keep pushing the progressive side of politics and resist the easy, seemingly safe, but ultimately futile race for the centre. |
| Bill Shorten | |
| Grogonomics | |
| Labor party | |
| Australian politics | |
| Inequality | |
| Marriage equality | |
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