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Shrinking sweets? 'You're not imagining it,' ONS tells shoppers Shrinking sweets? 'You're not imagining it,' ONS tells shoppers
(about 2 hours later)
For all those shoppers who feel chocolate bars, cartons of drink, toilet rolls and countless other products have been getting smaller, now comes official confirmation. A grand total of 2,529 products tracked by the Office for National Statistics have decreased in size over the past five years. Only 614 have got bigger.For all those shoppers who feel chocolate bars, cartons of drink, toilet rolls and countless other products have been getting smaller, now comes official confirmation. A grand total of 2,529 products tracked by the Office for National Statistics have decreased in size over the past five years. Only 614 have got bigger.
In an analysis of the phenomenon known as “shrinkflation”, the ONS explores whether these dwindling portions are making life more expensive. The theory goes: if a chocolate bar gets smaller but the price stays the same, that is a form of inflation because you are paying more per bite.In an analysis of the phenomenon known as “shrinkflation”, the ONS explores whether these dwindling portions are making life more expensive. The theory goes: if a chocolate bar gets smaller but the price stays the same, that is a form of inflation because you are paying more per bite.
The issue has regularly made headlines over the last year after the decline in the value of the pound following the Brexit vote. This increased the price of imported ingredients for food manufacturers and they looked for ways to recover their extra costs. Toblerone, owned by Mondelez, spaced out its signature triangles so that there was less chocolate in each bar. Mars has shrunk its sharing bags of Maltesers by 15%. Doritos have downsized from 200g a packet to 180g, Peperamis have lost 2.5g and are now 22.5g and a big box of Coco Pops has been reduced from 800g to 720g.The issue has regularly made headlines over the last year after the decline in the value of the pound following the Brexit vote. This increased the price of imported ingredients for food manufacturers and they looked for ways to recover their extra costs. Toblerone, owned by Mondelez, spaced out its signature triangles so that there was less chocolate in each bar. Mars has shrunk its sharing bags of Maltesers by 15%. Doritos have downsized from 200g a packet to 180g, Peperamis have lost 2.5g and are now 22.5g and a big box of Coco Pops has been reduced from 800g to 720g.
Of the total number of products that have got smaller, some 2,000 are food items. Of the total number of products that have got smaller, 2,006 were food items. Items that particularly stood out as having shrunk over recent years were bags of sweets, soft drinks, disposable nappies and toilet rolls.
The ONS assures the public it catches this form of inflation because its hundreds of price collectors around the country always check the size of an item as well as the price when they are rounding up information for each month’s inflation figures. Products that had increased in size included crisps and hand-rolled tobacco, following a change in the law requiring pouches to contain a minimum of 30g of tobacco.
Using that data, it has now summed up recent size changes, highlighting food as particularly prone to shrinkage. But it is only in the very sweetest sub-category of “sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery” that downsizing is having a noticeable effect on inflation. The ONS assures the public it catches this form of inflation because its hundreds of price collectors around the country always check the size of an item as well as the price when they are gathering information for each month’s inflation figures.
Using its data, the ONS has now summed up recent size changes, highlighting food as particularly prone to shrinkage. But it is only in the very sweetest sub-category of “sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery” that downsizing is having a noticeable effect on inflation.
The statistics office also said there was no evidence that the Brexit vote was to blame and that shrinkflation pre-dated the EU referendum.The statistics office also said there was no evidence that the Brexit vote was to blame and that shrinkflation pre-dated the EU referendum.
Summing up its findings, the ONS said: “No, you’re not imagining it – some of your favourite sweets really are shrinking. In November 2016, Toblerone chocolate bars reduced in size by about 10%, provoking outrage online. And Maltesers, M&Ms and Minstrels have gone the same way.Summing up its findings, the ONS said: “No, you’re not imagining it – some of your favourite sweets really are shrinking. In November 2016, Toblerone chocolate bars reduced in size by about 10%, provoking outrage online. And Maltesers, M&Ms and Minstrels have gone the same way.
“But it’s not just chocolate bars. Over the last few years, journalists have found examples of loo roll, coffee, fruit juice, sausages, beer and chips getting smaller without getting any cheaper.”“But it’s not just chocolate bars. Over the last few years, journalists have found examples of loo roll, coffee, fruit juice, sausages, beer and chips getting smaller without getting any cheaper.”
Some of our favourite sweets are shrinking. What effect is #shrinkflation having on the price of chocolate? https://t.co/r00K4IlmRu pic.twitter.com/2pS4nY1Rp4Some of our favourite sweets are shrinking. What effect is #shrinkflation having on the price of chocolate? https://t.co/r00K4IlmRu pic.twitter.com/2pS4nY1Rp4
When the ONS looked at the data from the last five years, it found that “lots of the items we recorded had reduced in size or weight – mostly in the ‘food and drink’ category”.When the ONS looked at the data from the last five years, it found that “lots of the items we recorded had reduced in size or weight – mostly in the ‘food and drink’ category”.
As for what that means for inflation, it found “no discernable effect” but said that was not very surprising given the size of the basket of goods and services that is tracked to gauge price changes. “Food and drink is a relatively small proportion of this measure,” the ONS said. As for what that means for inflation, it found “no discernable effect” but said that was not very surprising because of the size of the basket of goods and services that is tracked to gauge price changes. “Food and drink is a relatively small proportion of this measure,” the ONS said.
“But even within the ‘food and non-alcoholic beverages’ category, shrinkflation had no noticeable effect. This could be because the number of shrinking pack sizes is relatively small,” it continued.
“However, in one small subcategory, we found that the changing pack size had contributed 1.22 percentage points to the rate of inflation of those items since the beginning of 2012. That was the sweetest one: ‘sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery’.”“However, in one small subcategory, we found that the changing pack size had contributed 1.22 percentage points to the rate of inflation of those items since the beginning of 2012. That was the sweetest one: ‘sugar, jam, syrups, chocolate and confectionery’.”
Examining why manufacturers might want to shrink pack sizes, the ONS said most chocolate makers had blamed the need to resize their products on rising raw material costs. But it pointed out that the European import price of sugar had been slowly falling since the middle of 2014 and in March 2017 it reached its lowest level since records began in 1991. The ONS said most chocolate makers had blamed the need to downsize their products on rising raw material costs. But it pointed out that the European import price of sugar had been slowly falling since the middle of 2014. In March 2017 it reached its lowest level since records began in 1991.
The price of cocoa reached a five-year high in December 2015 because of droughts in the three biggest cocoa-exporting countries but had fallen sharply over the last year, it added. Similarly, the statisticians said the price of cocoa had reached a five-year high in December 2015 as a result of droughts in the three biggest cocoa-exporting countries, but it had fallen sharply over the last year.
Turning to Brexit, statisticians concluded: “Manufacturers’ costs might also be rising because of the recent fall in the value of the pound – leading some commentators to attribute shrinkflation to the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. The ONS said Brexit and the decline in the pound was not to blame for smaller packs, and pointed out that manufacturers had been cutting sizes for several years:
“But our analysis doesn’t show a noticeable change following the referendum that would point towards a Brexit effect. Furthermore, others (including Which?) had been observing these shrinking pack sizes long before the EU referendum, and several manufacturers have denied that this is a major factor.” ”Our analysis doesn’t show a noticeable change following the referendum that would point towards a Brexit effect. Furthermore, others (including Which?) had been observing these shrinking pack sizes long before the EU referendum, and several manufacturers have denied that this is a major factor.”
The figure of 2,529 shrinking products was taken from all the quotes recorded by collectors and the ONS said there could be some double counting if the same item was tracked by several people.
Food sector experts have warned consumers the trend is likely to continue as companies seek to preserve their profit margins while not scaring off price-sensitive shoppers.
Mark Jones, a food and drink solicitor at Gordons law firm, said shrinkflation began in 2009 during the recession and had since gathered pace.
“Shrinking the size of the products being sold, whether that is toilet paper, chocolate or cleaning products, is just another way of pushing through a price increase, but in a more subtle way,” said Jones. “How many of us noticed Andrex reduce the number of sheets on a toilet roll from 240 to 221?”
“We will probably see a ‘double whammy’ after Brexit as inflation, labour shortages and tariffs could all mean pack sizes decrease and prices rise.”