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France, Spain and Sweden all beat UK with solid growth in Q2 – business live France, Spain and Sweden all beat UK with solid growth in Q2 – business live
(35 minutes later)
11.52am BST
11:52
Ireland’s central bank has hiked its growth forecasts for this year, but warned that Brexit is a significant threat.
The Central Bank of Ireland now expects GDP to surge by 4.5% this year, up from the 3.5% it expected back in April. It also raised its 2018 growth forecasts to 3.6%, from 3.2%.
Central Bank Chief Economist Gabriel Fagan explained that Ireland is benefitting from Europe’s recovery:
“Revised projections for growth this year and in 2018 reflect both stronger momentum in the domestic economy and improved prospects for external demand, especially from our European trading partners,”
But.....
“As a small and open economy, Ireland continues to face economic risks externally. And despite there being little new information emerging to date, it is clear that the economic impact of Brexit on Ireland is set to be negative and material.
At home, we must continue to prudently monitor the risk of overheating.”
The full economic impact depends on exactly what form of Brexit Britain ends up with. If it exits the customs union and the single market, then robust border controls would probably be reinstalled between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
However, there are reports today that Dublin is pushing for border controls to be shifted to the coastline. That idea has already been attacked by Northern Ireland’s unionist politicians - including the DUP, who are propping up the UK government in Westminster...
THE TIMES: Irish want sea border with UK after Brexit #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/rzlxvyML6Q
Updated
at 11.53am BST
11.30am BST11.30am BST
11:3011:30
European stock markets have responded to today’s solid growth reports by, er, falling to their lowest level in three months.European stock markets have responded to today’s solid growth reports by, er, falling to their lowest level in three months.
France’s CAC is the worst performer, down 1.4%, with Germany and the UK not too far behind.France’s CAC is the worst performer, down 1.4%, with Germany and the UK not too far behind.
This is partly due to the strength of the euro, which has rallied to a 2.5 year high this week.This is partly due to the strength of the euro, which has rallied to a 2.5 year high this week.
Traders are also nervous after watching the US Senate shoot down Donald Trump’s latest attack on Obamacare.Traders are also nervous after watching the US Senate shoot down Donald Trump’s latest attack on Obamacare.
Mike van Dulken of Accendo Market explains:Mike van Dulken of Accendo Market explains:
“Equities are in the red mid-morning, sentiment dented by fresh dollar weakness as even a ‘skinny’ US healthcare repeal bill fails in the Senate, delivering more unwelcome pound and euro strength.“Equities are in the red mid-morning, sentiment dented by fresh dollar weakness as even a ‘skinny’ US healthcare repeal bill fails in the Senate, delivering more unwelcome pound and euro strength.
10.20am BST10.20am BST
10:2010:20
Eurozone economic sentiment hits 10-year highEurozone economic sentiment hits 10-year high
Breaking! Economic confidence across the eurozone has inched up to its highest level in a decade.Breaking! Economic confidence across the eurozone has inched up to its highest level in a decade.
It’s the latest in a stream of upbeat data, which underline how Europe is putting its debt crisis behind it.It’s the latest in a stream of upbeat data, which underline how Europe is putting its debt crisis behind it.
The European Commission’s economic sentiment index, just released, has hit 111.2 for July, up from 111.1 in June. That’s the highest level since the financial crisis began a decade ago.The European Commission’s economic sentiment index, just released, has hit 111.2 for July, up from 111.1 in June. That’s the highest level since the financial crisis began a decade ago.
Construction firms and service sector companies reported the biggest improvement in sentiment, while consumer confidence dipped.Construction firms and service sector companies reported the biggest improvement in sentiment, while consumer confidence dipped.
Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, says:Dennis de Jong, managing director at UFX.com, says:
“While the UK wrestles with its lowest levels of consumer confidence since the Brexit vote, things are far rosier on the continent. The latest reading suggests that spending is at healthy levels in the eurozone despite the heightened political and economic uncertainty.“While the UK wrestles with its lowest levels of consumer confidence since the Brexit vote, things are far rosier on the continent. The latest reading suggests that spending is at healthy levels in the eurozone despite the heightened political and economic uncertainty.
“With the first quarter of the year proving to be a challenge for the eurozone following UK and French general elections, spirits haven’t been dampened in the aftermath and consumers refuse to be unfazed by tricky economic conditions.“With the first quarter of the year proving to be a challenge for the eurozone following UK and French general elections, spirits haven’t been dampened in the aftermath and consumers refuse to be unfazed by tricky economic conditions.
“With steady employment figures continuing to have a positive bearing on consumer confidence and showing no signs of letting up, Michel Barnier will feel he holds the chips while looking across the table at David Davis, as Brexit talks rumble on.”“With steady employment figures continuing to have a positive bearing on consumer confidence and showing no signs of letting up, Michel Barnier will feel he holds the chips while looking across the table at David Davis, as Brexit talks rumble on.”
9.49am BST9.49am BST
09:4909:49
Euro back over $1.17Euro back over $1.17
Today’s eurozone growth figures have helped to push the euro a little higher against the US dollar.Today’s eurozone growth figures have helped to push the euro a little higher against the US dollar.
The euro is back over $1.17 this morning, a gain of 0.2%.The euro is back over $1.17 this morning, a gain of 0.2%.
The dollar, though, is also suffering from Donald Trump’s latest failure to dismantle Obamacare.The dollar, though, is also suffering from Donald Trump’s latest failure to dismantle Obamacare.
After a dramatic late-night vote, the so-called “skinny repeal’ bill was rejected by the Senate, by 51 votes to 49. Crucially, veteran lawmaker John McCain was one of three Republicans to vote against the measure, which would have left millions more Americans without healthcare cover.After a dramatic late-night vote, the so-called “skinny repeal’ bill was rejected by the Senate, by 51 votes to 49. Crucially, veteran lawmaker John McCain was one of three Republicans to vote against the measure, which would have left millions more Americans without healthcare cover.
This makes it even less likely that Trump can achieve a major infrastructure spending programme, or tax reforms (cuts).This makes it even less likely that Trump can achieve a major infrastructure spending programme, or tax reforms (cuts).
Kit Juckes of Societe General explains:Kit Juckes of Societe General explains:
The man of the moment this morning is John McCain who voted no and so the Senate failed to repeal Obamacare by a single vote.The man of the moment this morning is John McCain who voted no and so the Senate failed to repeal Obamacare by a single vote.
Another hurdle for President Trump’s healthcare reform, another hurdle backing the funds for tax reform, another hurdle in the way of higher Treasury yields and a so nothing good for the dollar in that announcement.Another hurdle for President Trump’s healthcare reform, another hurdle backing the funds for tax reform, another hurdle in the way of higher Treasury yields and a so nothing good for the dollar in that announcement.
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9.24am BST9.24am BST
09:2409:24
Silvia Walter of Swiss Life Asset Managers is impressed by Spain’s recovery:Silvia Walter of Swiss Life Asset Managers is impressed by Spain’s recovery:
ok, French #GDP growth in Q2 is strong...but #Spain beats that easily, again! pic.twitter.com/zfMcbtFfFfok, French #GDP growth in Q2 is strong...but #Spain beats that easily, again! pic.twitter.com/zfMcbtFfFf
9.21am BST9.21am BST
09:2109:21
Sweden’s growth rate is “crazy strong”, says Torbjörn Isaksson of Nordea Markets.Sweden’s growth rate is “crazy strong”, says Torbjörn Isaksson of Nordea Markets.
He reckons the Swedish economy continues to perform very well, mainly due to strong domestic demand.He reckons the Swedish economy continues to perform very well, mainly due to strong domestic demand.
Isaksson adds:Isaksson adds:
GDP rose by a full 1.7% q/q and as much as 4.0% y/y. Our call was 1.1% q/q while the Riksbank’s forecast was 0.7% q/q. Moreover, the first quarter was revised upwards by 0.2% points to 0.6% q/q.GDP rose by a full 1.7% q/q and as much as 4.0% y/y. Our call was 1.1% q/q while the Riksbank’s forecast was 0.7% q/q. Moreover, the first quarter was revised upwards by 0.2% points to 0.6% q/q.
The main surprises are fixed investments and inventories. Residential construction continues to be a very important growth driver (scary!), but also other investments seem to have picked up and more than forecast. Inventories weighed on growth but much less than we had in mind.The main surprises are fixed investments and inventories. Residential construction continues to be a very important growth driver (scary!), but also other investments seem to have picked up and more than forecast. Inventories weighed on growth but much less than we had in mind.
Sweden has the strongest economy but the most dovish CB... Our comment on the crazy strong Q2 GDP: https://t.co/xyU657XGwC pic.twitter.com/Pb8tHWf3JeSweden has the strongest economy but the most dovish CB... Our comment on the crazy strong Q2 GDP: https://t.co/xyU657XGwC pic.twitter.com/Pb8tHWf3Je
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at 9.21am BSTat 9.21am BST
9.01am BST9.01am BST
09:0109:01
Wowzers! Sweden’s economy grew by a blistering 1.7% in the last quarter.Wowzers! Sweden’s economy grew by a blistering 1.7% in the last quarter.
That smashes analyst forecasts of 1% growth, and means Sweden’s economy has expanded by an impressive 4% over the last year.That smashes analyst forecasts of 1% growth, and means Sweden’s economy has expanded by an impressive 4% over the last year.
Sweden appears to be benefitting from its current loose monetary policy - interest rates are negative, to encourage banks to lend.....Sweden appears to be benefitting from its current loose monetary policy - interest rates are negative, to encourage banks to lend.....
#Sweden: #GDP Growth +4.0% YoY, Core #CPI +1.9%, but Repo Rate at -0.50% and Deposit Rate at -1.25%! #MonetaryMadness pic.twitter.com/tJysd33OgK#Sweden: #GDP Growth +4.0% YoY, Core #CPI +1.9%, but Repo Rate at -0.50% and Deposit Rate at -1.25%! #MonetaryMadness pic.twitter.com/tJysd33OgK
4% YoY growth. As a reminder, the Riksbank's benchmark rate is -0.5% https://t.co/VzxLQ4eAFQ4% YoY growth. As a reminder, the Riksbank's benchmark rate is -0.5% https://t.co/VzxLQ4eAFQ
8.49am BST8.49am BST
08:4908:49
Austria’s economy grew by 0.8% in the last quarter, thanks to a boost in trade.Austria’s economy grew by 0.8% in the last quarter, thanks to a boost in trade.
New figures show that exports jumped by 2.4% in April to June, up from 2.0% in January to March.New figures show that exports jumped by 2.4% in April to June, up from 2.0% in January to March.
8.32am BST8.32am BST
08:3208:32
Spain’s economy has finally reached its pre-crisis peak, thanks to the 0.9% growth recorded in the last quarter.Spain’s economy has finally reached its pre-crisis peak, thanks to the 0.9% growth recorded in the last quarter.
Spanish real GDP now exceeds its pre-crisis level (2008) for the first time!! pic.twitter.com/8VyxCO2zbYSpanish real GDP now exceeds its pre-crisis level (2008) for the first time!! pic.twitter.com/8VyxCO2zbY
That’s an important moment, but it has come at a cost. As El Pais points out, Spain still employs 1.9 million fewer people than in 2008.That’s an important moment, but it has come at a cost. As El Pais points out, Spain still employs 1.9 million fewer people than in 2008.
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.51am BSTat 8.51am BST
8.13am BST8.13am BST
08:1308:13
Spain posts 0.9% growthSpain posts 0.9% growth
Newsflash: Spain has recorded another strong quarter of growth, beating both the UK and France.Newsflash: Spain has recorded another strong quarter of growth, beating both the UK and France.
Spanish GDP rose by 0.9% in the last three months, new figures from statistics body INE show.Spanish GDP rose by 0.9% in the last three months, new figures from statistics body INE show.
That’s three times as fast Britain managed during the quarter, and nearly double France’s growth rate.That’s three times as fast Britain managed during the quarter, and nearly double France’s growth rate.
That’s up from 0.8% in the first quarter of 2017, and means Spain’s economy has now grown for 15 quarters in a row (or nearly four years).That’s up from 0.8% in the first quarter of 2017, and means Spain’s economy has now grown for 15 quarters in a row (or nearly four years).
On an annual basis, Spanish GDP grew by 3.1%.On an annual basis, Spanish GDP grew by 3.1%.
More to follow....More to follow....
UpdatedUpdated
at 8.15am BSTat 8.15am BST
8.02am BST8.02am BST
08:0208:02
Ouch. Shares in BT have fallen by 1.7% at the start of trading after posting a 40% drop in profits.Ouch. Shares in BT have fallen by 1.7% at the start of trading after posting a 40% drop in profits.
My colleague Mark Sweney explains why....My colleague Mark Sweney explains why....
BT’s profits slumped more than 40% in the first quarter of its new financial year after it was forced to pay out £225m to two shareholders following the accounting scandal at its Italian operation.BT’s profits slumped more than 40% in the first quarter of its new financial year after it was forced to pay out £225m to two shareholders following the accounting scandal at its Italian operation.
Deutsche Telekom and Orange became shareholders in BT after the company struck a £12.5bn cash and shares deal to buy mobile company EE in 2015.Deutsche Telekom and Orange became shareholders in BT after the company struck a £12.5bn cash and shares deal to buy mobile company EE in 2015.
As part of that deal the two companies were issued a warranty as a protection against a slump in BT’s performance.As part of that deal the two companies were issued a warranty as a protection against a slump in BT’s performance.
DT and Orange triggered a claim under the warranty after BT’s stock market value plunged by almost £8bn, after the company revealed the extent of a £530m accounting scandal at its Italian operation. BT’s share price remains more than 20% lower that it was a year ago.DT and Orange triggered a claim under the warranty after BT’s stock market value plunged by almost £8bn, after the company revealed the extent of a £530m accounting scandal at its Italian operation. BT’s share price remains more than 20% lower that it was a year ago.
7.56am BST7.56am BST
07:5607:56
The news that France’s economy grew by a healthy 0.5% last quarter should reassure investors, says Naeem Aslam of Think Markets:The news that France’s economy grew by a healthy 0.5% last quarter should reassure investors, says Naeem Aslam of Think Markets:
Over in Europe, the French GDP data brought more light for the Eurozone’s economy. The problem child of the Eurozone is no longer a problem child, in fact, it has grown up and living up to the expectations.Over in Europe, the French GDP data brought more light for the Eurozone’s economy. The problem child of the Eurozone is no longer a problem child, in fact, it has grown up and living up to the expectations.
UpdatedUpdated
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7.47am BST7.47am BST
07:4707:47
Bloomberg journalist Mark Deen reckons the French economy has entered a purple patch:Bloomberg journalist Mark Deen reckons the French economy has entered a purple patch:
French GDP in best run since 2011. Numbers strong if you dig into them - external trade contributing 0.8%, biggest such since 2010 pic.twitter.com/9Mn5dmUDZhFrench GDP in best run since 2011. Numbers strong if you dig into them - external trade contributing 0.8%, biggest such since 2010 pic.twitter.com/9Mn5dmUDZh
7.44am BST7.44am BST
07:4407:44
Over in the City, Barclays has told shareholders its setting aside another £700m to cover the cost of the PPI scandal (in which customers were sold insurance they didn’t need, or ask for).Over in the City, Barclays has told shareholders its setting aside another £700m to cover the cost of the PPI scandal (in which customers were sold insurance they didn’t need, or ask for).
Barclays has also posted a net loss of £1.2bn for the last six months, having losing £2.2bn through the sale of its Africa business. More on that shortly....Barclays has also posted a net loss of £1.2bn for the last six months, having losing £2.2bn through the sale of its Africa business. More on that shortly....
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7.30am BST7.30am BST
07:3007:30
IHS: France looks healthy, but there are risks....IHS: France looks healthy, but there are risks....
Diego Iscaro, senior principal economist at IHS Global Insight, thinks France’s economy is in decent shape.Diego Iscaro, senior principal economist at IHS Global Insight, thinks France’s economy is in decent shape.
Here’s his take on today’s GDP figures:Here’s his take on today’s GDP figures:
France’s GDP rose by 0.5% q/q during the second quarter of 2017, according to seasonally-adjusted figures released by the INSEE. The economy had grown by the same magnitude during the first three months of the year.France’s GDP rose by 0.5% q/q during the second quarter of 2017, according to seasonally-adjusted figures released by the INSEE. The economy had grown by the same magnitude during the first three months of the year.
Net foreign trade was the main driver of growth during the second quarter, adding 0.8 percentage point to the total change in demand, as exports rebounded strongly. Domestic demand, excluding stocks, also made a positive contribution. Internal demand was boosted by a new increase in investment spending (although it decelerated compared to the first quarter) and a modest acceleration in private consumption.Net foreign trade was the main driver of growth during the second quarter, adding 0.8 percentage point to the total change in demand, as exports rebounded strongly. Domestic demand, excluding stocks, also made a positive contribution. Internal demand was boosted by a new increase in investment spending (although it decelerated compared to the first quarter) and a modest acceleration in private consumption.
The figures show France’s economy posting solid growth during the second quarter and support our view that GDP is likely to grow by around 1.6% in 2017. This would be the strongest performance in six years.The figures show France’s economy posting solid growth during the second quarter and support our view that GDP is likely to grow by around 1.6% in 2017. This would be the strongest performance in six years.
We expect growth to remain healthy during the second half of the year, boosted by gradually improving labour market situation, muted inflation and solid external demand. Confidence indices suggest that firms and households are also more upbeat about the economic outlook, which should also help to support domestic demand.We expect growth to remain healthy during the second half of the year, boosted by gradually improving labour market situation, muted inflation and solid external demand. Confidence indices suggest that firms and households are also more upbeat about the economic outlook, which should also help to support domestic demand.
Investment spending should also be supported by favourable credit conditions and improving demand levels during the second half of 2017.Investment spending should also be supported by favourable credit conditions and improving demand levels during the second half of 2017.
The French economic recovery seems to be well stablished, but there are still risks on the horizon. Although hopes for the implementation of reforms – particularly on the fiscal and labour market fronts – are high, the risk of the government not delivering as expected is not negligible, despite its large majority in the National Assembly.The French economic recovery seems to be well stablished, but there are still risks on the horizon. Although hopes for the implementation of reforms – particularly on the fiscal and labour market fronts – are high, the risk of the government not delivering as expected is not negligible, despite its large majority in the National Assembly.
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.57am BSTat 7.57am BST
7.08am BST7.08am BST
07:0807:08
French GDP: Snap reactionFrench GDP: Snap reaction
Today’s growth figures should cheer France’s new leader, says Mehreen Khan of the FT.Today’s growth figures should cheer France’s new leader, says Mehreen Khan of the FT.
She writes:She writes:
The official figures will be a boon for president Macron who has vowed to overhaul the French economy after years of lagging behind its major eurozone rival, Germany.The official figures will be a boon for president Macron who has vowed to overhaul the French economy after years of lagging behind its major eurozone rival, Germany.
Unemployment in France is now at its lowest since the eurozone crisis, inflation has been tamed, and business surveys are revealing the best confidence levels in a decade.Unemployment in France is now at its lowest since the eurozone crisis, inflation has been tamed, and business surveys are revealing the best confidence levels in a decade.
French economic growth held steady at 0.5% as president Macron came to office https://t.co/lFkS98D29u pic.twitter.com/8xxLLpBGDqFrench economic growth held steady at 0.5% as president Macron came to office https://t.co/lFkS98D29u pic.twitter.com/8xxLLpBGDq
Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Economics agrees that France did well in the last quarter....Claus Vistesen of Pantheon Economics agrees that France did well in the last quarter....
Great GDP headline in France, but net exports will fall in Q3 and I doubt inventories will snap back in manufacturing to fully compensate.Great GDP headline in France, but net exports will fall in Q3 and I doubt inventories will snap back in manufacturing to fully compensate.
Bloomberg’s Fergal O’Brien flags up that France’s economy has now grown for a year.Bloomberg’s Fergal O’Brien flags up that France’s economy has now grown for a year.
France kicks off eurozone GDP season with 0.5% growth. In line with estimate and a fourth consecutive expansion. pic.twitter.com/ZYzShAMMOHFrance kicks off eurozone GDP season with 0.5% growth. In line with estimate and a fourth consecutive expansion. pic.twitter.com/ZYzShAMMOH
6.59am BST6.59am BST
06:5906:59
This chart shows how net trade boosted French growth in the last quarter.This chart shows how net trade boosted French growth in the last quarter.
6.51am BST6.51am BST
06:5106:51
French GDP rises by 0.5%French GDP rises by 0.5%
Breaking: France’s economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2017.Breaking: France’s economy grew by 0.5% in the second quarter of 2017.
That matches economists’ forecasts, and outpaces Britain’s 0.3% growth in the last three months.That matches economists’ forecasts, and outpaces Britain’s 0.3% growth in the last three months.
It means that France’s economy has now grown steadily for the last year, and by 0.5% per quarter for the last nine months. That’s a pretty solid performance.It means that France’s economy has now grown steadily for the last year, and by 0.5% per quarter for the last nine months. That’s a pretty solid performance.
#France #GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est at 0.5% https://t.co/YZQGQpj2eo pic.twitter.com/tMHr1kvn0P#France #GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est at 0.5% https://t.co/YZQGQpj2eo pic.twitter.com/tMHr1kvn0P
The French economy was helped by a surge in exports - they rose by 3.1% in April to June, while imports only rose by 0.2%.The French economy was helped by a surge in exports - they rose by 3.1% in April to June, while imports only rose by 0.2%.
Consumer spending rose too, to 0.3% from 0.1% in Q1.Consumer spending rose too, to 0.3% from 0.1% in Q1.
However, business investment slowed to 0.5% from 2.1% in January to March.However, business investment slowed to 0.5% from 2.1% in January to March.
On an annual basis, French GDP grew by 1.8% - again, slightly faster than Britain’s 1.7% year-on-year growth.On an annual basis, French GDP grew by 1.8% - again, slightly faster than Britain’s 1.7% year-on-year growth.
France Q2 prelim GDP 0.5% QoQ = 3 months stable, but 1.8% YoY = strongest since late 2011France Q2 prelim GDP 0.5% QoQ = 3 months stable, but 1.8% YoY = strongest since late 2011
More to follow....More to follow....
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at 6.52am BSTat 6.52am BST
6.41am BST6.41am BST
06:4106:41
The agenda: French and US growth figuresThe agenda: French and US growth figures
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
We get two key pieces of economic data this morning - new growth figures from France and America.We get two key pieces of economic data this morning - new growth figures from France and America.
Together, they’ll help us to see how the global economy performed in the second quarter of this year. Economists expect that both countries grew fairly solidly, with French GDP tipped to rise by 0.5% and America’s by around 0.7% (or 2.7% on an annualised basis).Together, they’ll help us to see how the global economy performed in the second quarter of this year. Economists expect that both countries grew fairly solidly, with French GDP tipped to rise by 0.5% and America’s by around 0.7% (or 2.7% on an annualised basis).
We also find out how Canada’s economy performed in May.We also find out how Canada’s economy performed in May.
Update: Spanish growth figures are also coming this morning.Update: Spanish growth figures are also coming this morning.
It’s also another busy morning for financial news. Barclays bank, telecoms group BT, airline operator IAG and online estate agent Rightmove are among those reporting results.It’s also another busy morning for financial news. Barclays bank, telecoms group BT, airline operator IAG and online estate agent Rightmove are among those reporting results.
The agenda:The agenda:
6.30am BST: French GDP for the second quarter of 20176.30am BST: French GDP for the second quarter of 2017
8am BST: Spanish GDP for the second quarter of 20178am BST: Spanish GDP for the second quarter of 2017
10am BST: Eurozone consumer confidence10am BST: Eurozone consumer confidence
1pm BST: German inflation for July1pm BST: German inflation for July
1.30pm BST: US GDP for the second quarter of 20171.30pm BST: US GDP for the second quarter of 2017
1.30pm BST: Canadian GDP for May1.30pm BST: Canadian GDP for May
UpdatedUpdated
at 7.40am BSTat 7.40am BST