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Donald Trump Knows How to Push Our Buttons Trump Knows How to Push Our Buttons
(about 4 hours later)
Last week, when President Trump called on the police to use rough justice in dealing with violent Latino gangs, there was a clear method to his madness.Last week, when President Trump called on the police to use rough justice in dealing with violent Latino gangs, there was a clear method to his madness.
Addressing patrolmen and officers assembled in the Van Nostrand Theatre on Long Island on July 28, Trump was fully aware that his remarks would prove incendiary:Addressing patrolmen and officers assembled in the Van Nostrand Theatre on Long Island on July 28, Trump was fully aware that his remarks would prove incendiary:
Underlying Trump’s defiance of law enforcement norms is a calculated strategy advocating the use of force, with the twofold goal of pushing liberals back on their heels and affirming the instincts of his most avid supporters.Underlying Trump’s defiance of law enforcement norms is a calculated strategy advocating the use of force, with the twofold goal of pushing liberals back on their heels and affirming the instincts of his most avid supporters.
The same design underpins such recent actions as his endorsement of legislation to cut legal immigration in half and his administration’s apparent plans to pursue “investigations and possible litigation related to intentional race-based discrimination in college and university admissions” in opposition to affirmative action.The same design underpins such recent actions as his endorsement of legislation to cut legal immigration in half and his administration’s apparent plans to pursue “investigations and possible litigation related to intentional race-based discrimination in college and university admissions” in opposition to affirmative action.
Trump’s repeated attacks on liberal orthodoxy highlight how Democrats are themselves bound — hogtied is not too strong a word — by the conflicting needs and goals of the various constituencies in their multiracial, multiethnic coalition — a coalition that has been vulnerable to wedge issue attacks for 50 years.Trump’s repeated attacks on liberal orthodoxy highlight how Democrats are themselves bound — hogtied is not too strong a word — by the conflicting needs and goals of the various constituencies in their multiracial, multiethnic coalition — a coalition that has been vulnerable to wedge issue attacks for 50 years.
Trump’s Suffolk County speech came four days after the announcement by Democratic House and Senate leaders of their newest economic proposal “A Better Deal,” the recent attempt by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to recoup Democratic majorities lost in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. This “better deal” is explicitly designed to appeal to the “many American workers who have been left behind and left out of the economic recovery” — and to reduce the political salience of issues touching on ethnicity and race.Trump’s Suffolk County speech came four days after the announcement by Democratic House and Senate leaders of their newest economic proposal “A Better Deal,” the recent attempt by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to recoup Democratic majorities lost in the 2010 and 2014 midterms. This “better deal” is explicitly designed to appeal to the “many American workers who have been left behind and left out of the economic recovery” — and to reduce the political salience of issues touching on ethnicity and race.
In an attempt to target swing voters, the proposal calls for “a major infrastructure investment program, a national paid family leave program, rules to ensure fair work schedules” along with “apprenticeships and work-based learning programs” and “a New Tax Credit to Employers to Train and Hire New Workers.”In an attempt to target swing voters, the proposal calls for “a major infrastructure investment program, a national paid family leave program, rules to ensure fair work schedules” along with “apprenticeships and work-based learning programs” and “a New Tax Credit to Employers to Train and Hire New Workers.”
All of these items poll well, and most have been suggested before, including some in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 platform and some in Trump’s own proposals.All of these items poll well, and most have been suggested before, including some in Hillary Clinton’s 2016 platform and some in Trump’s own proposals.
These issues are key to the Democratic struggle to get back in the good graces of white, non-college voters — a constituency that shifted by the millions from casting Democratic presidential ballots in 2008 and 2012 to casting Republican ballots in 2016.These issues are key to the Democratic struggle to get back in the good graces of white, non-college voters — a constituency that shifted by the millions from casting Democratic presidential ballots in 2008 and 2012 to casting Republican ballots in 2016.
A recently released study by the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, concentrates on this constituency. It is based on polling from June 27 to July 13 of 1,000 likely 2018 voters, all of them white, 25 and up, without bachelor’s degrees.A recently released study by the House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, concentrates on this constituency. It is based on polling from June 27 to July 13 of 1,000 likely 2018 voters, all of them white, 25 and up, without bachelor’s degrees.
The Majority PAC survey, conducted by Expedition Strategies and Normington, Petts and Associates, describes the profound suspicion of Democrats among these voters.The Majority PAC survey, conducted by Expedition Strategies and Normington, Petts and Associates, describes the profound suspicion of Democrats among these voters.
The survey asked whether seven statements apply more to Democrats or Republicans — “will take the right approach on health care,” “understands what it is like for regular Americans;” “will fight for people like you,” “will reduce the power of special interests in Congress,” “will cut taxes for the middle class,” “will do more to ensure that people are rewarded for hard work” and “will help improve the economy and create jobs.”The survey asked whether seven statements apply more to Democrats or Republicans — “will take the right approach on health care,” “understands what it is like for regular Americans;” “will fight for people like you,” “will reduce the power of special interests in Congress,” “will cut taxes for the middle class,” “will do more to ensure that people are rewarded for hard work” and “will help improve the economy and create jobs.”
Democrats held the advantage on one of the seven, health care, and that was by four points. Republicans were ahead on every other issue. Most important, Republicans led Democrats by a solid 19 points on ensuring that people are rewarded for hard work and by a devastating 35 points on improving the economy and creating jobs — just what “A Better Deal” claims to do.Democrats held the advantage on one of the seven, health care, and that was by four points. Republicans were ahead on every other issue. Most important, Republicans led Democrats by a solid 19 points on ensuring that people are rewarded for hard work and by a devastating 35 points on improving the economy and creating jobs — just what “A Better Deal” claims to do.
When Schumer, Pelosi and other Democrats seek to make the case for a “better deal,” they face an audience primed to disbelieve every word they say.When Schumer, Pelosi and other Democrats seek to make the case for a “better deal,” they face an audience primed to disbelieve every word they say.
I asked Pete Brodnitz, the founder of Expedition Strategies, one of the firms that conducted this survey, whether he thought there was a link between Trump’s emphasis on immigration, Latino gangs, and crime and the Democrats’ efforts to shift the agenda to economic policy.I asked Pete Brodnitz, the founder of Expedition Strategies, one of the firms that conducted this survey, whether he thought there was a link between Trump’s emphasis on immigration, Latino gangs, and crime and the Democrats’ efforts to shift the agenda to economic policy.
“This has been building for months but it has become pronounced recently,” he wrote in an email. The Trump administration hopes “Democrats will react by defending immigration and look ‘soft on gangs,’ ” aware that “if they push the envelope on this issue they can get coverage for their efforts and drown out Democratic efforts to change the topic.”“This has been building for months but it has become pronounced recently,” he wrote in an email. The Trump administration hopes “Democrats will react by defending immigration and look ‘soft on gangs,’ ” aware that “if they push the envelope on this issue they can get coverage for their efforts and drown out Democratic efforts to change the topic.”
Brodnitz described Trump’s tactics as offering “ideas that sound really outlandish but that they believe have popular support — at least with their core voters” and that the Long Island speech was based on “the hope that Democrats would look more concerned about criminals than about crime and its victims.”Brodnitz described Trump’s tactics as offering “ideas that sound really outlandish but that they believe have popular support — at least with their core voters” and that the Long Island speech was based on “the hope that Democrats would look more concerned about criminals than about crime and its victims.”
To put it mildly, it has been difficult for the Democrats to recruit key white voters to consider an economic agenda in the face of concerted efforts by the Trump campaign and his administration to shift the focus to crime.To put it mildly, it has been difficult for the Democrats to recruit key white voters to consider an economic agenda in the face of concerted efforts by the Trump campaign and his administration to shift the focus to crime.
Gallup found in October 2016 that the percentage of Americans who said they had “great respect” for the police had risen from 64 percent in 2015 to 76 percent in 2016. The poll was conducted three months after the killing of three police officers in Baton Rouge and five officers in Dallas in July and a steady barrage of headlines spotlighting Black Lives Matter, along with allegations of excessive force by police and several high-profile killings.Gallup found in October 2016 that the percentage of Americans who said they had “great respect” for the police had risen from 64 percent in 2015 to 76 percent in 2016. The poll was conducted three months after the killing of three police officers in Baton Rouge and five officers in Dallas in July and a steady barrage of headlines spotlighting Black Lives Matter, along with allegations of excessive force by police and several high-profile killings.
I asked a prominent political scientist — a man with generally moderate views — for his reaction to Trump’s comments in the Long Island speech. His answer surprised me. Requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly, he replied:I asked a prominent political scientist — a man with generally moderate views — for his reaction to Trump’s comments in the Long Island speech. His answer surprised me. Requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly, he replied:
Trump made no secret of his views during the 2016 campaign, and not only received the overwhelming support of non-college white men, 71-23 (as has been widely noted), but also carried white men with college degrees by a smaller but still hefty margin, 53-39.Trump made no secret of his views during the 2016 campaign, and not only received the overwhelming support of non-college white men, 71-23 (as has been widely noted), but also carried white men with college degrees by a smaller but still hefty margin, 53-39.
“Trump is endorsing the lex talionis — an eye for an eye,” Jonathan Haidt, the author of “The Righteous Mind” and a professor of ethical leadership at N.Y.U.’s Stern School of Business, wrote in an email. In his own surveys, conducted at YourMorals.org, “only a subset of people on the right endorse such beliefs; it’s basically the authoritarians, not the Burkean or ‘status quo’ conservatives.”“Trump is endorsing the lex talionis — an eye for an eye,” Jonathan Haidt, the author of “The Righteous Mind” and a professor of ethical leadership at N.Y.U.’s Stern School of Business, wrote in an email. In his own surveys, conducted at YourMorals.org, “only a subset of people on the right endorse such beliefs; it’s basically the authoritarians, not the Burkean or ‘status quo’ conservatives.”
One question Haidt’s survey asks respondents is whether they agree or disagree with the idea that “a criminal should be made to suffer in the same way that his victim suffered.”One question Haidt’s survey asks respondents is whether they agree or disagree with the idea that “a criminal should be made to suffer in the same way that his victim suffered.”
Haidt said “progressives strongly reject it, and it correlates fairly well with politics — the farther right you are, the more you endorse it.”Haidt said “progressives strongly reject it, and it correlates fairly well with politics — the farther right you are, the more you endorse it.”
Steven Pinker, a professor of psychology at Harvard, argues in his book “The Better Angels of Our Nature” that “violence has declined over long stretches of time, and today we may be living in the most peaceable era in our species’ existence.”Steven Pinker, a professor of psychology at Harvard, argues in his book “The Better Angels of Our Nature” that “violence has declined over long stretches of time, and today we may be living in the most peaceable era in our species’ existence.”
What, then, does Pinker make of Trump’s Long Island speech?What, then, does Pinker make of Trump’s Long Island speech?
Trump, in Pinker’s view, has focused on the most primitive and regressive emotions among voters:Trump, in Pinker’s view, has focused on the most primitive and regressive emotions among voters:
Pinker sees this as part of an ongoing struggle.Pinker sees this as part of an ongoing struggle.
And yes,And yes,
The connection may not seem obvious at first, but Pinker’s comments are directly relevant to the Democratic Party’s attempt to counter Trump with liberal economic policies.The connection may not seem obvious at first, but Pinker’s comments are directly relevant to the Democratic Party’s attempt to counter Trump with liberal economic policies.
Not only is their adversary a man ungoverned by rule or tradition, but he is a man who has taken “our impulses of authoritarianism and tribalism,” to quote Pinker one last time, and constructed “an edifice of rationalization around them.”Not only is their adversary a man ungoverned by rule or tradition, but he is a man who has taken “our impulses of authoritarianism and tribalism,” to quote Pinker one last time, and constructed “an edifice of rationalization around them.”
This puts the Democrats in a dangerous position. The more they succeed in pushing Trump up against a wall, politically speaking, the more they risk the possibility that the he will inflict real damage, whether it is hostile engagement abroad or increasingly aggressive attacks on democratic institutions at home.This puts the Democrats in a dangerous position. The more they succeed in pushing Trump up against a wall, politically speaking, the more they risk the possibility that the he will inflict real damage, whether it is hostile engagement abroad or increasingly aggressive attacks on democratic institutions at home.
It is ominous that Trump has already hit upon the use of force as his preferred solution when confronting domestic law-and-order issues. One hates to think of what a man with his mind-set can do with a nuclear arsenal and the world as his stage.It is ominous that Trump has already hit upon the use of force as his preferred solution when confronting domestic law-and-order issues. One hates to think of what a man with his mind-set can do with a nuclear arsenal and the world as his stage.
Senator Jeff Flake, Republican of Arizona and the author of a new book, “Conscience of a Conservative,” has not yet fully demonstrated the sincerity of his concern, but he has articulated the seriousness of Trump’s transgressive impulses. In an excerpt that was published by Politico, Flake describesSenator Jeff Flake, Republican of Arizona and the author of a new book, “Conscience of a Conservative,” has not yet fully demonstrated the sincerity of his concern, but he has articulated the seriousness of Trump’s transgressive impulses. In an excerpt that was published by Politico, Flake describes
ConservativesConservatives
What Flake recognizes, and what Democrats are only coming to realize, is that Trump represents a systemic assault on the legitimacy of America’s democratic processes, an attack that needs to be countered by far more that a modest collection of economic policies organized under the rubric “a better deal.”What Flake recognizes, and what Democrats are only coming to realize, is that Trump represents a systemic assault on the legitimacy of America’s democratic processes, an attack that needs to be countered by far more that a modest collection of economic policies organized under the rubric “a better deal.”
Flake’s open defection is an important step. If it is to become a serious problem for Trump, Flake’s Republican colleagues — Susan Collins, Bob Corker, Lindsey Graham, John McCain, Lisa Murkowksi, Rob Portman and Ben Sasse come to mind — will have to join him and not just one vote at a time. For a challenge to Trump to be effective, Republicans’ “unnerving silence” will have to crack.Flake’s open defection is an important step. If it is to become a serious problem for Trump, Flake’s Republican colleagues — Susan Collins, Bob Corker, Lindsey Graham, John McCain, Lisa Murkowksi, Rob Portman and Ben Sasse come to mind — will have to join him and not just one vote at a time. For a challenge to Trump to be effective, Republicans’ “unnerving silence” will have to crack.