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| Public mood turns against marriage equality postal vote, poll shows | Public mood turns against marriage equality postal vote, poll shows |
| (6 months later) | |
| Latest Guardian Essential survey has 47% disapproving of ballot while 39% are in favour – a significant shift in sentiment from previous week | |
| Katharine Murphy Political editor | |
| Mon 14 Aug 2017 19.00 BST | |
| Last modified on Tue 12 Sep 2017 07.42 BST | |
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| Public disapproval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage has increased over the past week as political and public controversy about the concept has intensified, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. | Public disapproval of the postal ballot on same-sex marriage has increased over the past week as political and public controversy about the concept has intensified, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. |
| The latest survey of 1,815 voters found that 47% of the sample disapproved of the postal vote while 39% approved of it. | The latest survey of 1,815 voters found that 47% of the sample disapproved of the postal vote while 39% approved of it. |
| When a similar question was asked only a week ago, before marriage equality advocates mounted a legal challenge in the high court, more voters approved than disapproved of the postal vote. | When a similar question was asked only a week ago, before marriage equality advocates mounted a legal challenge in the high court, more voters approved than disapproved of the postal vote. |
| Last week 43% approved of holding a voluntary postal plebiscite followed by a vote in parliament, while 38% disapproved. | Last week 43% approved of holding a voluntary postal plebiscite followed by a vote in parliament, while 38% disapproved. |
| The rising public disapproval, including a thumbs down from 37% of Coalition voters, follows strident criticism of the postal vote from marriage equality advocates, Labor and the Greens, and public calls from senior government figures for the debate to be conducted respectfully. | The rising public disapproval, including a thumbs down from 37% of Coalition voters, follows strident criticism of the postal vote from marriage equality advocates, Labor and the Greens, and public calls from senior government figures for the debate to be conducted respectfully. |
| The negative movement is outside the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus three points. | The negative movement is outside the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus three points. |
| But interestingly, given widespread concern that a postal poll might disenfranchise younger voters because they are harder to reach through the mail, younger voters were more likely to approve of the government’s decision to hold the survey – 43% of those aged 18 to 34 approved compared with 35% of people aged over 55. | But interestingly, given widespread concern that a postal poll might disenfranchise younger voters because they are harder to reach through the mail, younger voters were more likely to approve of the government’s decision to hold the survey – 43% of those aged 18 to 34 approved compared with 35% of people aged over 55. |
| While attacking the validity of the postal vote, marriage equality advocates and progressive political parties have urged the public not to boycott the survey, assuming it withstands the current legal challenge, which will be heard by the high court in the first week of September. | While attacking the validity of the postal vote, marriage equality advocates and progressive political parties have urged the public not to boycott the survey, assuming it withstands the current legal challenge, which will be heard by the high court in the first week of September. |
| The latest weekly snapshot of voter opinion has Labor maintaining its election winning lead over the Coalition on the two-party-preferred measure, 54% to 46%. That result is the same as last week. | The latest weekly snapshot of voter opinion has Labor maintaining its election winning lead over the Coalition on the two-party-preferred measure, 54% to 46%. That result is the same as last week. |
| The Coalition primary vote is on 37% to Labor’s 39%. The Greens are steady on 9%, as is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation on 8%. | The Coalition primary vote is on 37% to Labor’s 39%. The Greens are steady on 9%, as is Pauline Hanson’s One Nation on 8%. |
| The Nick Xenophon Team has dropped a point in each of the last three polls. Three weeks ago the NXT was on 4%, two weeks ago it was on 3% and the latest poll has them on 2%. | The Nick Xenophon Team has dropped a point in each of the last three polls. Three weeks ago the NXT was on 4%, two weeks ago it was on 3% and the latest poll has them on 2%. |
| Voters were asked this week to rate the Turnbull government’s performance across a range of policy areas. | Voters were asked this week to rate the Turnbull government’s performance across a range of policy areas. |
| The Turnbull government scored a clear thumbs down on the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy. | The Turnbull government scored a clear thumbs down on the implementation of the national broadband network, schools and universities funding, addressing climate change, funding health and hospitals, implementing a fair tax system and ensuring reliable and affordable energy. |
| It got a thumbs up on protecting Australians from terrorism. | It got a thumbs up on protecting Australians from terrorism. |
| Voters were asked to select a statement reflecting their view of the Turnbull government, with 41% agreeing with the statement “I don’t like their policies or the decisions they have been making”, 15% agreeing with the statement “I like their policies and am satisfied with the progress they are making”, 28% agreeing with “I like their policies but they are not making enough progress in implementing them”. | Voters were asked to select a statement reflecting their view of the Turnbull government, with 41% agreeing with the statement “I don’t like their policies or the decisions they have been making”, 15% agreeing with the statement “I like their policies and am satisfied with the progress they are making”, 28% agreeing with “I like their policies but they are not making enough progress in implementing them”. |
| They were also asked questions about the cost of living and household income, with 53% of the sample saying they believed their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had stayed even, and 15% reporting more favourable circumstances. | They were also asked questions about the cost of living and household income, with 53% of the sample saying they believed their income had fallen behind the rising cost of living, 25% saying it had stayed even, and 15% reporting more favourable circumstances. |
| Voters were asked about their financial situation, with 40% saying they had enough money for basic essentials but they struggled to save, and 42% saying they could cover expenses and save a little money. | Voters were asked about their financial situation, with 40% saying they had enough money for basic essentials but they struggled to save, and 42% saying they could cover expenses and save a little money. |
| At the top and bottom end, 8% recorded having insufficient funds to cover basic essentials and 7% said they could cover expenses and save a lot of money. | At the top and bottom end, 8% recorded having insufficient funds to cover basic essentials and 7% said they could cover expenses and save a lot of money. |
| Underscoring the political sensitivity about energy bills, 59% of the sample reported paying a lot more for electricity and gas. In February 2016, 34% reported paying a lot more for their utility bills. | Underscoring the political sensitivity about energy bills, 59% of the sample reported paying a lot more for electricity and gas. In February 2016, 34% reported paying a lot more for their utility bills. |
| Voters were also asked about Australia’s top marginal tax rate of 47% on earnings over $180,000, with 33% of the sample believing that rate too high, 12% arguing it was too low, and 39% believing it was about right. | Voters were also asked about Australia’s top marginal tax rate of 47% on earnings over $180,000, with 33% of the sample believing that rate too high, 12% arguing it was too low, and 39% believing it was about right. |
| By voting groups, 32% of Labor voters thought 47% too high, 14% thought it too low and 40% thought it about right. | By voting groups, 32% of Labor voters thought 47% too high, 14% thought it too low and 40% thought it about right. |
| The combined impact of Labor policies for the next election will push the top marginal tax rate to 49%. | The combined impact of Labor policies for the next election will push the top marginal tax rate to 49%. |
| Thirty-eight per cent of Coalition voters thought the current rate too high, 12% thought it too low, and 41% thought it about right. | Thirty-eight per cent of Coalition voters thought the current rate too high, 12% thought it too low, and 41% thought it about right. |
| Australian politics | |
| The Guardian Essential Report | |
| Marriage equality | |
| Essential poll | |
| Coalition | |
| Labor party | |
| Australian Greens | |
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