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Afghan Insurgents Gaining as Trump Rolls Out War Plan As Trump Rolls Out War Plan, Taliban Are Gaining
(about 17 hours later)
KABUL, Afghanistan — Taliban insurgents overran the government headquarters of a district in northern Afghanistan on Monday, the latest in a string of losses for Kabul, just hours before President Trump was to unveil his long-delayed strategic plan for handling the nearly 16-year war. TACTICAL BASE GAMBERI, Afghanistan — Lt. Gen. Mohammad Zaman Waziri had an immediate question about the possibility that President Trump would send more American troops to Afghanistan.
The headquarters in Khamab District in the province of Jawzjan was taken by insurgents on Monday morning, said the spokesman for the Afghan National Army’s commando units, Ahmad Jawid Salim, who said Afghan forces planned to recapture it. The Taliban also said on their website that they had taken the district. “Are there going to be only advisers?” he asked an American delegation visiting his base in heavily contested Nangarhar Province on Monday.
It was the sixth place in Afghanistan to fall to the Taliban in the past month — five districts and a strategic valley — even as casualties and armed clashes have risen to their highest levels of the war. On an average day, 31 members of the Afghan national security forces are killed, as well as nine civilians, according to data from a variety of official sources. Taliban casualties are not known. His question cut to the heart of the line that the Pentagon is trying to straddle in the war against the Taliban, who are gaining ground and now control more territory in Afghanistan than they have since an American invasion ousted them from power nearly 16 years ago.
Such numbers underline the challenge facing Mr. Trump as he prepares to address the American public about the war on Monday night. He is expected to announce an increase in the number of United States troops being sent to Afghanistan, in line with previous requests by his generals, who have asked for several thousand more. That would still make the American military presence far smaller than at its peak of 100,000 soldiers under President Barack Obama. The war has become more widespread, violent and complex than ever. Mr. Trump, in an address on Monday night, promised a renewed American military commitment to Afghanistan, but did not offer specifics such as how many more troops might be sent there. The Pentagon had requested 3,900 additional troops.
Amid their recent gains, the insurgents have had setbacks. Two of the six places that fell to the Taliban in the past month were taken back by the government. In addition, government forces in the southern province of Helmand retook Nawa District, which had long been held by the insurgents, in July. While Special Operations forces have battled Taliban and Islamic State insurgents, most of the 8,400 United States troops now in the country are there largely to advise and train.
But the Taliban now control or dominate 48 of the country’s roughly 400 administrative areas, the most they have held since being ousted from power in 2001, based on data provided by the United States military to the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction. The inspector general’s last quarterly report to Congress listed 45 such districts, based on data through the end of June, and the Taliban have made a net gain of three districts since then. General Waziri hopes that any additional forces will join the fight.
Among the most recent to fall was Jani Khel, in Paktia Province close to the eastern border with Pakistan, which the insurgents took on Aug. 10. That district has changed hands at least three times since 2016 and twice just this month, underlining its importance to both sides as a transit area for the Haqqani network, a powerful Taliban faction, to and from its Pakistani sanctuaries. Government officials claim that neither side really controls the district, where fighting continues. “If you think about it, if only they could join us in the combat field,” he said, almost plaintively. “Think how positive an impact they could have.”
On Aug. 13, the Taliban took the center of Ghormach District in Faryab Province in the north, although the Afghan National Army retains control of a base in the district, which is under Taliban siege and being resupplied by helicopter. “If reinforcements don’t reach them, the situation will get badly worse,” said the district governor, Abdullah Waqif, who estimated that as many as 500 Afghan soldiers were at the base. His wish, American military officials say, is exactly what they want to avoid. The Pentagon does not want to assume even more of the heavy lifting than its Afghan partners.
On Monday, a government spokesmen said the soldiers were still trapped there, but that heavy Afghan airstrikes had killed 80 insurgents and destroyed a dozen of their motorcycles. The Pentagon is also aware that after so many years of war, the American public may not stomach — and the American military may not be able to afford — another huge troop buildup in Afghanistan’s infamous graveyard of empires.
On Aug. 6, what was asserted to be a combined force of Taliban and Islamic State militants overran the strategic valley of Mirza Olang in Sar-e-pul Province in the north. Hundreds of the valley’s Shia residents fled amid claims that the insurgents, who are Sunni, were beheading Shias and enslaving and raping women. The government claimed Monday that its forces had retaken the valley. So the Afghan national security forces, weak as they are, are expected to do their own fighting.
In a report condemning the violence, the United Nations accused the insurgents of killing 36 people who were civilians or had put down their weapons, but said no evidence of rape or beheadings had been found. “You are trying to grow an army from where one didn’t exist before,” said Maj. Gen. James Linder, the American Special Operations commander in Afghanistan. “That’s no easy task.”
Over the past month, Taliban insurgents also took the districts of Taiwara, in the western province of Ghor, and Kohistan in Faryab Province, but government forces have since retaken both of them, according to local officials. Here at Tactical Base Gamberi, military officials say they are hoping to get their own piece of any new troop infusion — but to advise soldiers in the Afghan National Army’s 201st Corps, not fight alongside them.
It remains far from clear whether Mr. Trump’s long-delayed plan will help reverse or even halt what has been a year of stunning losses for the Afghan armed forces.
Taliban fighters overran Khamab District in northern Jowzjan Province on Monday. It was the sixth government-held territory in Afghanistan to fall to the Taliban in the past month.
Casualties and armed clashes have risen to their highest of the war. On an average day, 31 members of the Afghan national security forces are killed, as well as nine civilians, according to data from official sources.
Attacks on the capital, Kabul, have turned so deadly that the government and the American-led coalition plan to double the size of the so-called Green Zone of security, carving a square-mile chunk out of the center of the city for embassies, ministries and military offices. Suicide bombers have made Kabul, once an oasis of relative safety, now statistically the most dangerous place in Afghanistan.
Squabbling warlords have undermined support for the government even in northern heartland areas that formerly had few insurgents.
The government itself is a coalition of political enemies. The insurgents are at the gates of at least half a dozen provincial capitals. In some, like Lashkar Gah and Kunduz, only heavy American aerial bombing has prevented a complete takeover.
While United States military casualties are lower than they were six or seven years ago, 11 American soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan this year, including one last week.
Even with the additional troops ordered by Mr. Trump, the American military presence would remain far smaller than at its peak of 100,000 under President Barack Obama.
The newly expanded American force is likely to be a small fraction of that size, though the problems it faces are greater.
While the Afghan military and police forces have also increased in size as the Americans withdrew, they are troubled by poor leadership, high rates of attrition and so-called ghost soldiers, who exist on paper only to collect pay for corrupt officers. Two generals from Helmand Province are among 1,000 Afghan officers facing corruption charges.
Helmand is the country’s most important battlefield, and the capital of Afghanistan’s opium trade. Most of it is now under Taliban control.
The latest setback was the fall of Khamab District, overrun by insurgents on Monday morning, according to the spokesman for the Afghan National Army’s special forces units, Ahmad Jawid Salim. He said Afghan forces intended to recapture it.
That has happened frequently, as control of Afghan territory has seesawed, leaving a trail of casualties with every change of control. Two of the six places that fell to the Taliban in the past month were taken back by the government. In addition, government forces in Helmand retook Nawa District, long been held by the insurgents, in July.
But the Taliban now control or dominate 48 of the country’s roughly 400 administrative areas, the most they have held since the Americans ousted them from power in 2001, based on data provided by the United States military to the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction.
Gen. John Nicholson, the American commander here, described the conflict as a stalemate during congressional testimony in February. Taliban insurgents have made numerous gains since then, including taking districts like Sangin in Helmand, the place where more American and British soldiers lost their lives than any other.
This month, the Taliban took the center of Ghormach District in Faryab Province in the north. The Afghan National Army retains control of a base in the district, which is under Taliban siege and is resupplied by helicopter.
“If reinforcements don’t reach them, the situation will get badly worse,” said the district governor, Abdullah Waqif, who estimated that as many as 500 Afghan soldiers were at the base.
Also this month, what was asserted to be a combined force of Taliban and Islamic State militants overran the strategic valley of Mirza Olang in Sar-i-Pul Province in the north. Hundreds of Shiite residents fled amid claims that the insurgents, who are Sunni, were beheading Shiites, and enslaving and raping women. The government claimed Monday that its forces had retaken the valley.
In a report on the violence, the United Nations accused the insurgents of killing 36 people who were civilians or had put down their weapons, but said no evidence of rape or beheadings had been found.
Over the past month, Taliban insurgents also took the districts of Taiwara, in the western province of Ghor, and Kohistan in Faryab Province, but government forces have since retaken both, according to local officials.
The tempo of fighting has greatly increased throughout Afghanistan this year, judging from the numbers of civilians and combatants killed. In the first half of 2017, civilians were dying at a rate of nine a day, according to United Nations data.The tempo of fighting has greatly increased throughout Afghanistan this year, judging from the numbers of civilians and combatants killed. In the first half of 2017, civilians were dying at a rate of nine a day, according to United Nations data.
A senior United States military official said an average of 20 Afghan National Army soldiers were being killed each day this month. Separately, a spokesman for the Afghan Ministry of Interior, Najib Danish, cited statistics showing that 1,302 police officers had been killed from March 21 through Aug. 16, about nine a day. The Afghan National Army has stopped releasing casualty figures, saying they are now classified. But a senior United States military official said an average of 20 Afghan National Army soldiers a day were being killed this month. Separately, a spokesman for the Afghan Interior Ministry, Najib Danish, cited statistics showing that 1,302 police officers were killed from March 21 through Aug. 16, about nine a day.
And Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction statistics showed that another 181 Afghan local police officers were killed over a similar period, about two a day. Taken together, the figures suggest that an average of 31 Afghan combatants are being killed daily, not counting insurgents, along with nine civilians. And statistics from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction showed that an additional 181 Afghan local police officers were killed over a similar period. Taken together, the figures suggest an average of 31 Afghan soldiers and police officers are killed daily, not counting insurgents.
Last year, 6,000 Afghan soldiers were estimated to have been killed, according to senior military officials. That is far more than the roughly 3,500 fatalities sustained by American and coalition forces during the entire war, and Afghan soldiers’ reported death rate is running even higher this year. Last year, 6,000 Afghan soldiers were estimated to have been killed, according to senior military officials. That was far more than the roughly 3,500 fatalities sustained by American and coalition forces during the entire war. The reported death rate for Afghan soldiers is running even higher this year.
Last week saw the 11th American soldier die in Afghanistan this year. Most of those killed have been Special Forces or Special Operations soldiers. Of the 8,800 American soldiers in the country, along with 6,575 allied and NATO troops, about 3,300 are believed to be Special Operations fighters. While some Afghan officials insist that they have begun winning, others ridicule that assertion.
“The Taliban are getting stronger, the government is on the retreat, they are losing ground to the Taliban day by day,” said Abdul Jabbar Qahraman, a retired general who until last year was President Ashraf Ghani’s military envoy to Helmand Province.
“As a military general, the Afghan war is a mystery to me,” he said. “Our security forces have the capacity to handle it, but due to weak leadership they are not able to do so.”