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UK public finances see first July surplus since 2002 – business live UK public finances see first July surplus since 2002 – business live
(35 minutes later)
11.36am BST
11:36
More on the pound. Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at Forex.com, said:
Sentiment towards the British pound remains negative and so if the dollar were to stage a more meaningful comeback then the GBP/USD would be the one to watch as it could drop heavily.
The pound is currently down 0.6% at $1.2824.
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at 11.39am BST
11.29am BST
11:29
UK manufacturers report strong demand
Manufacturers expect strong growth in the next three months after a pick up in orders in August, according to the CBI’s latest industrial trends survey.
The survey showed 30% of manufacturers reported order books above normal, with 17% saying they were below normal. The balance of +13% was higher than the +10% level seen in July and above the long run average of -14%.
As for exports, 22% of firms said they were above normal and 10% below.
Output growth remained strong and broad based and is expected to remain so over the next quarter. #CBI_ITS https://t.co/m53aToSWoQ pic.twitter.com/hb5GrDjw3f
Anna Leach, CBI Head of Economic Intelligence, said:
There are further signs that exporters are feeling the benefit from the lower pound in this month’s figures, and output growth is expected to power on over the coming quarter.
But she added:
After a brief pause last month, expectations for selling prices have rebounded, indicating that the squeeze on consumers is set to persist. We expect CPI (Consumer Price Index) to top out at around 3% towards the end of this year and remain close to that level during 2018, as the effect of the weak pound continues to feed through.
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11.15am BST
11:15
Richard Partington
Here’s our story on the UK public finances. Richard Partington writes:
The government ran the first July budget surplus in more than a decade last month, as Britain’s public finances recorded an unexpected leap back into the black with help from an increase in self-assessed tax payments.
Public sector net borrowing last month, excluding the nationalised banks, was in surplus by £184m, the first surplus in that month since 2002, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Tuesday. City economists had expected the government to record a £1bn deficit.
Receipts from self-assessed income tax increased by £800m to £8bn last month, compared with July 2016, giving the government the highest level of July self-assessed tax receipts since it started recording these payments in 1999.
Howard Archer, chief economic adviser at EY Item Club, said the figures were a welcome boost for the chancellor, Philip Hammond, who now had a “very decent chance” of undershooting his 2017-18 fiscal target.
The full story is here:
10.59am BST10.59am BST
10:5910:59
Pensions regulator to prosecute Dominic Chappell over BHSPensions regulator to prosecute Dominic Chappell over BHS
BREAKING:BREAKING:
The Pensions Regulator has announced it will prosecute Dominic Chappell over its investigation into BHS. The full statement from the regulator reads:The Pensions Regulator has announced it will prosecute Dominic Chappell over its investigation into BHS. The full statement from the regulator reads:
The Pensions Regulator (TPR) is to prosecute Dominic Chappell for failing to provide information and documents it requested during its investigation into the sale of BHS.The Pensions Regulator (TPR) is to prosecute Dominic Chappell for failing to provide information and documents it requested during its investigation into the sale of BHS.
Mr Chappell was the director and majority shareholder of Retail Acquisitions Ltd at the time that the company purchased BHS.Mr Chappell was the director and majority shareholder of Retail Acquisitions Ltd at the time that the company purchased BHS.
TPR is prosecuting Mr Chappell for failing to comply with three notices issued under Section 72 of the Pensions Act 2004. The notices requiring information were issued to Mr Chappell on 26 April 2016, 13 May 2016 and 20 February 2017.TPR is prosecuting Mr Chappell for failing to comply with three notices issued under Section 72 of the Pensions Act 2004. The notices requiring information were issued to Mr Chappell on 26 April 2016, 13 May 2016 and 20 February 2017.
He has been summonsed to appear at Brighton Magistrates’ Court on 20 September 2017 to face three charges of neglecting or refusing to provide information and documents, without a reasonable excuse, when required to do so under section 72 of the Pensions Act 2004, contrary to section 77(1) of that Act.He has been summonsed to appear at Brighton Magistrates’ Court on 20 September 2017 to face three charges of neglecting or refusing to provide information and documents, without a reasonable excuse, when required to do so under section 72 of the Pensions Act 2004, contrary to section 77(1) of that Act.
Earlier this year the regulator started legal action to try and force Chappell to pay as much as £17m into the failed retailer’s pension scheme.Earlier this year the regulator started legal action to try and force Chappell to pay as much as £17m into the failed retailer’s pension scheme.
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at 11.02am BSTat 11.02am BST
10.37am BST10.37am BST
10:3710:37
Here’s Bloomberg’s graphic on the day’s fall in the pound so far:Here’s Bloomberg’s graphic on the day’s fall in the pound so far:
Pound declines as uncertainties linger about post-#Brexit trade https://t.co/e6Pt8nTRUR via @anoojad pic.twitter.com/7r3lALLDzsPound declines as uncertainties linger about post-#Brexit trade https://t.co/e6Pt8nTRUR via @anoojad pic.twitter.com/7r3lALLDzs
10.36am BST10.36am BST
10:3610:36
UK's full year borrowing revised lowerUK's full year borrowing revised lower
The UK’s net borrowing for the year to March 2017 has been revised lower again, the latest ONS figures show.The UK’s net borrowing for the year to March 2017 has been revised lower again, the latest ONS figures show.
It decreased by £27bn to £45.1bn compared with the previous financial year, the lowest level of borrowing since the year to March 2008.It decreased by £27bn to £45.1bn compared with the previous financial year, the lowest level of borrowing since the year to March 2008.
In May the ONS said the figure for the year to March 207 was £48.7bn.In May the ONS said the figure for the year to March 207 was £48.7bn.
10.29am BST10.29am BST
10:2910:29
Back to the UK public finances and a good sign for the chancellor:Back to the UK public finances and a good sign for the chancellor:
If pattern of first 4 months of 2017/18 sustained, #UK public borrowing would come in at £49.2 bn – well below £58.3 bn seen in March budgetIf pattern of first 4 months of 2017/18 sustained, #UK public borrowing would come in at £49.2 bn – well below £58.3 bn seen in March budget
10.19am BST10.19am BST
10:1910:19
German economic confidence disappointsGerman economic confidence disappoints
Over in Germany, the monthly economic sentiment index has come in below expectations.Over in Germany, the monthly economic sentiment index has come in below expectations.
The ZEW Institute said there was a “strong decrease in expectations” as the index fell from 17.5 in July to 10 in August, worse than the figure of 15 that analysts had been expecting. The figure is well below the long term average of 23.8 points. ZEW president professor Achim Wambach said:The ZEW Institute said there was a “strong decrease in expectations” as the index fell from 17.5 in July to 10 in August, worse than the figure of 15 that analysts had been expecting. The figure is well below the long term average of 23.8 points. ZEW president professor Achim Wambach said:
The significant decrease of the ZEW economic sentiment indicator reflects the high degree of nervousness over the future path of growth in Germany. Both weaker than expected German exports as well as the widening scandal in the German automobile sector in particular have helped contribute to this situation. Overall, the economic outlook still remains relatively stable at a fairly high level.The significant decrease of the ZEW economic sentiment indicator reflects the high degree of nervousness over the future path of growth in Germany. Both weaker than expected German exports as well as the widening scandal in the German automobile sector in particular have helped contribute to this situation. Overall, the economic outlook still remains relatively stable at a fairly high level.
The German ZEW index remains at elevated levels, however German investors are concerned about the future, the expectations fell to 9-mth lowThe German ZEW index remains at elevated levels, however German investors are concerned about the future, the expectations fell to 9-mth low
10.13am BST10.13am BST
10:1310:13
The better than expected UK public sector finances have done little for the pound, at least as far as the dollar is concerned. It is now down 0.4% at $1.2847.The better than expected UK public sector finances have done little for the pound, at least as far as the dollar is concerned. It is now down 0.4% at $1.2847.
But it is down just 0.01% against the euro at €1.0915, as the single currency comes under pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers later this week.But it is down just 0.01% against the euro at €1.0915, as the single currency comes under pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting of central bankers later this week.
#EURUSD is lower today as scepticism enters the market that the ECB's Mario Draghi will say anything to boost the euro at #JacksonHole#EURUSD is lower today as scepticism enters the market that the ECB's Mario Draghi will say anything to boost the euro at #JacksonHole
10.10am BST10.10am BST
10:1010:10
Boost for #Chancellor as #UK #public #finances see first Jul surplus since 2002; repayment of £184 on PSNBEx lifted by #income #tax receiptsBoost for #Chancellor as #UK #public #finances see first Jul surplus since 2002; repayment of £184 on PSNBEx lifted by #income #tax receipts
10.07am BST10.07am BST
10:0710:07
Here's what's driven the change in UK public sector borrowing so far this financial year. pic.twitter.com/d46wPMtsaxHere's what's driven the change in UK public sector borrowing so far this financial year. pic.twitter.com/d46wPMtsax
9.57am BST9.57am BST
09:5709:57
This chart shows the monthly as well as the cumulative borrowing figures:This chart shows the monthly as well as the cumulative borrowing figures:
And borrowing as a percentage of GDP:And borrowing as a percentage of GDP:
9.44am BST9.44am BST
09:4409:44
The receipts from self-assessed income tax, which increased by £0.8bn to £8.0bn compared with July 2016, represented the highest level of July self-assessed receipts on record (records began in 1999).The receipts from self-assessed income tax, which increased by £0.8bn to £8.0bn compared with July 2016, represented the highest level of July self-assessed receipts on record (records began in 1999).
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at 9.53am BSTat 9.53am BST
9.34am BST9.34am BST
09:3409:34
UK public finances show surplusUK public finances show surplus
BREAKING NEWS:BREAKING NEWS:
Britain has seen the first July surplus since 2002, defying expectations of another deficit.Britain has seen the first July surplus since 2002, defying expectations of another deficit.
The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed a surplus of £0.184bn compared with expectations the government would borrow around £1bn. That compares with a deficit of £0.308bn in July 2016.The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics showed a surplus of £0.184bn compared with expectations the government would borrow around £1bn. That compares with a deficit of £0.308bn in July 2016.
That means the total cumulative borrowing for the year so far is £22.8bn, up 9% on the same period last year.That means the total cumulative borrowing for the year so far is £22.8bn, up 9% on the same period last year.
UK Public Finances: receipts from self-assessed Income Tax increased by £0.8 billion to £8.0 billion, compared with July 2016UK Public Finances: receipts from self-assessed Income Tax increased by £0.8 billion to £8.0 billion, compared with July 2016
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at 9.54am BSTat 9.54am BST
9.04am BST9.04am BST
09:0409:04
On BHP, analyst Nicholas Hyett at Hargreaves Lansdown said:On BHP, analyst Nicholas Hyett at Hargreaves Lansdown said:
The headline news today is BHP’s decision to exit onshore oil & gas in the US. Coming after pressure from activist investor Elliott International to spin off the entire US oil & gas business, the move is likely to be seen as a capitulation by the board, which had previously argued that the division formed a core part of the group’s operations.The headline news today is BHP’s decision to exit onshore oil & gas in the US. Coming after pressure from activist investor Elliott International to spin off the entire US oil & gas business, the move is likely to be seen as a capitulation by the board, which had previously argued that the division formed a core part of the group’s operations.
However while that volte face may attract headlines, management’s strategy elsewhere seems to be going smoothly and delivering results.However while that volte face may attract headlines, management’s strategy elsewhere seems to be going smoothly and delivering results.
The focus on cost control at BHP’s already very low cost assets, means cash generation is soaring now commodity prices have turned. Net debt is tumbling, and as that falls towards more sustainable levels it will free up cash for other uses.The focus on cost control at BHP’s already very low cost assets, means cash generation is soaring now commodity prices have turned. Net debt is tumbling, and as that falls towards more sustainable levels it will free up cash for other uses.
Next year a significant portion of the spare cash is going on increased capital spending, particularly in Petroleum and expanding existing mines. But since the group has already proven itself willing to return more than the 50% of earnings its dividend policy dictates, returns to shareholders could benefit as well.Next year a significant portion of the spare cash is going on increased capital spending, particularly in Petroleum and expanding existing mines. But since the group has already proven itself willing to return more than the 50% of earnings its dividend policy dictates, returns to shareholders could benefit as well.
As ever though, that assumes stable commodity prices, and if the last two years have taught us anything it’s the risks of making that kind of assumption.As ever though, that assumes stable commodity prices, and if the last two years have taught us anything it’s the risks of making that kind of assumption.
8.58am BST8.58am BST
08:5808:58
BHP boosted by US shale sale plansBHP boosted by US shale sale plans
Back with the stock market, and BHP Billiton is a positive story for the day.Back with the stock market, and BHP Billiton is a positive story for the day.
The mining group’s shares are up 3% after it reported a jump in profits from $1.2bn to $6.7bn and confirmed that it planned to dispose of its underperforming US shale oil and gas business after pressure from activist investors.The mining group’s shares are up 3% after it reported a jump in profits from $1.2bn to $6.7bn and confirmed that it planned to dispose of its underperforming US shale oil and gas business after pressure from activist investors.
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at 8.58am BSTat 8.58am BST